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STELRFAN


Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Posts: 3782
Location: Fortress of Solitude
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 5:55 pm    Post subject: Re: HMM Reply with quote

Dont be wowed by hype and stats its often those guys that in 3-4 years no one remembers? Confused[/quote]

First round picks have the best chance of becoming stars. You are focusing on the bad instead of the good, and still you only listed 4 guys. I'm sure you could go on all day with 1st round guys that turned out to be busts, but I promise I could go on longer with 1st rounders that weren't busts.

All you're doing is picking out the few guys that support your point and ignoring the many who don't.[/quote]

1st round bust

Blair Thomas James Stewart Akili Smith
Andre Ware Napoleon Kaufman David Boston
Todd Marinovich Michael Westbrook WR Cade McNown
Dan McGwire Lawrence Phillips Troy Edwards
Sean Gilbert Tim Biakabutuka Andy Katzenmoyer
David Klingler Rickey Dudley Dimitrius Underwood
Tommy Vardell Jamain Stephens Sylvester Morris
Alonzo Spellman Darrell Russell Erik Flowers
Tommy Maddox Bryant Westbrook CB Derrick Gibson
Rick Mirer Reinard Wilson Koren Robinson
Sean Dawkins Yatil Green Gerard Warren (brownies passed on lt)
O.J. McDuffie Reidel Anthony Jerramy Stevens
Heath Shuler Jim Druckenmiller Tony Mandarich
Charles Johnson Andre Wadsworth Tim Worley
Ki-Jana Carter Jason Peter Tony Eason
Craig Newsome Terry Fair Gabriel Rivera
Rashaan Salaam Marcus Nash JJ. Stokes



point proven yet?

these are 47 bust that have occured in my lifetime?
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Jamal Lewis seems to be a real uphill runner now. That's a problem. Downhill runners are preferred. Maybe he is running in the wrong direction. Espn DJ Gallo
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skywlker32


Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 2915
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:00 pm    Post subject: Re: HMM Reply with quote

STELRFAN wrote:
Dont be wowed by hype and stats its often those guys that in 3-4 years no one remembers? Confused


First round picks have the best chance of becoming stars. You are focusing on the bad instead of the good, and still you only listed 4 guys. I'm sure you could go on all day with 1st round guys that turned out to be busts, but I promise I could go on longer with 1st rounders that weren't busts.

All you're doing is picking out the few guys that support your point and ignoring the many who don't.[/quote]

1st round bust

Blair Thomas James Stewart Akili Smith
Andre Ware Napoleon Kaufman David Boston
Todd Marinovich Michael Westbrook WR Cade McNown
Dan McGwire Lawrence Phillips Troy Edwards
Sean Gilbert Tim Biakabutuka Andy Katzenmoyer
David Klingler Rickey Dudley Dimitrius Underwood
Tommy Vardell Jamain Stephens Sylvester Morris
Alonzo Spellman Darrell Russell Erik Flowers
Tommy Maddox Bryant Westbrook CB Derrick Gibson
Rick Mirer Reinard Wilson Koren Robinson
Sean Dawkins Yatil Green Gerard Warren (brownies passed on lt)
O.J. McDuffie Reidel Anthony Jerramy Stevens
Heath Shuler Jim Druckenmiller Tony Mandarich
Charles Johnson Andre Wadsworth Tim Worley
Ki-Jana Carter Jason Peter Tony Eason
Craig Newsome Terry Fair Gabriel Rivera
Rashaan Salaam Marcus Nash JJ. Stokes



point proven yet?

these are 47 bust that have occured in my lifetime?[/quote]

Now how many later round picks did not pan out at all in the NFL, at least a lot of those guys remained in the NFL.
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STELRFAN


Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Posts: 3782
Location: Fortress of Solitude
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:07 pm    Post subject: dude Reply with quote

dude no one is saying draft picks dont pan out my point is just because someone is picked in the first round doesnt guarantee stardom! it doesnt mean a thing its their productivity when they hit the field and first round picks are intended to produce and be starters not bounced around as backups or training camp fodder.

Its important to pay attention to a players productivity, level of competition, players that surrounded him, system all of those things you cant just say oh hes a first round pick hes a hall of famer?

If you go to best buy spend a ton of money on a tv you expect it work and work for a long time right you dont expect it to work for a week and break do you? Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes
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Jamal Lewis seems to be a real uphill runner now. That's a problem. Downhill runners are preferred. Maybe he is running in the wrong direction. Espn DJ Gallo
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skywlker32


Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 2915
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I understand it doesn't guarantee anything, but the chances are greater because a player would have to be overlooked by all of the teams a few times in order for them to drop to the later rounds. There are usually good reasons for teams to be skeptical about the later round picks, and they usually need to be developed more. The risk in later rounds is much greater.
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STELRFAN


Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Posts: 3782
Location: Fortress of Solitude
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:22 pm    Post subject: hmm Reply with quote

also there were allot of late round draft picks who turned out to be stars the entire draft is important round 1-7 wasnt johnny unitas a very late round pick ? no round can be dismissed early or late but allot of early picks do fail your point is just that pointless
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Jamal Lewis seems to be a real uphill runner now. That's a problem. Downhill runners are preferred. Maybe he is running in the wrong direction. Espn DJ Gallo
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SteelSedition


Joined: 27 Mar 2007
Posts: 2584
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

my theory is no way do the Steelers have 9 roster spots open for all 9 of their picks, I say package them and move up in the draft if possible, but if they spent a 7th rounder for the rights to Samardizja, as it would be like putting him in the bank if he decides to return. What was the number of players we cut last year after the draft? 4-5? What's the likelihood of finding a quality player in the 7th round? I'd say about as likely as Samardzija not making it and baseball and pulling a Drew Henson. I'd have no problem with the pick, I'm sure some team is going to take him late day 2.
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STELRFAN


Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Posts: 3782
Location: Fortress of Solitude
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:37 pm    Post subject: hmm Reply with quote

SteelSedition wrote:
my theory is no way do the Steelers have 9 roster spots open for all 9 of their picks, I say package them and move up in the draft if possible, but if they spent a 7th rounder for the rights to Samardizja, as it would be like putting him in the bank if he decides to return. What was the number of players we cut last year after the draft? 4-5? What's the likelihood of finding a quality player in the 7th round? I'd say about as likely as Samardzija not making it and baseball and pulling a Drew Henson. I'd have no problem with the pick, I'm sure some team is going to take him late day 2.


no they dont have room for all those picks your right but some team will spend a pick on him just not the steelers they usually dont gamble
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UML-Redskins GM GoSkins

Jamal Lewis seems to be a real uphill runner now. That's a problem. Downhill runners are preferred. Maybe he is running in the wrong direction. Espn DJ Gallo
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nate3682


Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 471
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

STELRFAN wrote:
1st round bust

Blair Thomas James Stewart Akili Smith
Andre Ware Napoleon Kaufman David Boston
Todd Marinovich Michael Westbrook WR Cade McNown
Dan McGwire Lawrence Phillips Troy Edwards
Sean Gilbert Tim Biakabutuka Andy Katzenmoyer
David Klingler Rickey Dudley Dimitrius Underwood
Tommy Vardell Jamain Stephens Sylvester Morris
Alonzo Spellman Darrell Russell Erik Flowers
Tommy Maddox Bryant Westbrook CB Derrick Gibson
Rick Mirer Reinard Wilson Koren Robinson
Sean Dawkins Yatil Green Gerard Warren (brownies passed on lt)
O.J. McDuffie Reidel Anthony Jerramy Stevens
Heath Shuler Jim Druckenmiller Tony Mandarich
Charles Johnson Andre Wadsworth Tim Worley
Ki-Jana Carter Jason Peter Tony Eason
Craig Newsome Terry Fair Gabriel Rivera
Rashaan Salaam Marcus Nash JJ. Stokes



point proven yet?

these are 47 bust that have occured in my lifetime?


skywlker32 wrote:
I understand it doesn't guarantee anything, but the chances are greater because a player would have to be overlooked by all of the teams a few times in order for them to drop to the later rounds. There are usually good reasons for teams to be skeptical about the later round picks, and they usually need to be developed more. The risk in later rounds is much greater.


This is exactly what I was trying to say. The chance of success in the first round is greater than in the rounds afterwards. There are reasons why certain players fall to the later rounds. Now, obviously there are always exceptions to the rules, but, 47 busts in your entire lifetime isn't much when you consider how many more there were in each of the 2nd-7th rounds. So, no, you're point isn't proven.
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STELRFAN


Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Posts: 3782
Location: Fortress of Solitude
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 6:47 pm    Post subject: my point Reply with quote

dude like my line says im a producer and you just a piano man. so im never going to agree with you in my mind my point is proven i watch and study the draft i pay no attention to where someone gets picked but PRODUCTION! what round did tom brady fall to? terelle davis? johhny unitas ? sometimes players fall for no reason other than people paid the person no attention you redo the draft tom brady would go #1 no if ands buts or maybes and i hate the man but i respect him so go away your like a fly interrupting my golf swing Rolling Eyes
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UML-Redskins GM GoSkins

Jamal Lewis seems to be a real uphill runner now. That's a problem. Downhill runners are preferred. Maybe he is running in the wrong direction. Espn DJ Gallo
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AlanFanecaFan


Joined: 13 Mar 2005
Posts: 11530
Location: Keeping bad people where they belong
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 7:18 pm    Post subject: Re: my point Reply with quote

STELRFAN wrote:
dude like my line says im a producer and you just a piano man. so im never going to agree with you in my mind my point is proven i watch and study the draft i pay no attention to where someone gets picked but PRODUCTION! what round did tom brady fall to? terelle davis? johhny unitas ? sometimes players fall for no reason other than people paid the person no attention you redo the draft tom brady would go #1 no if ands buts or maybes and i hate the man but i respect him so go away your like a fly interrupting my golf swing :roll


Wow, you gotta love personal insults when someone disagrees with you.

Good job in proving your point.
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STELRFAN


Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Posts: 3782
Location: Fortress of Solitude
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 7:51 pm    Post subject: Re: my point Reply with quote

AlanFanecaFan wrote:
STELRFAN wrote:
dude like my line says im a producer and you just a piano man. so im never going to agree with you in my mind my point is proven i watch and study the draft i pay no attention to where someone gets picked but PRODUCTION! what round did tom brady fall to? terelle davis? johhny unitas ? sometimes players fall for no reason other than people paid the person no attention you redo the draft tom brady would go #1 no if ands buts or maybes and i hate the man but i respect him so go away your like a fly interrupting my golf swing :roll


Wow, you gotta love personal insults when someone disagrees with you.

Good job in proving your point.


thanks Rolling Eyes
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UML-Redskins GM GoSkins

Jamal Lewis seems to be a real uphill runner now. That's a problem. Downhill runners are preferred. Maybe he is running in the wrong direction. Espn DJ Gallo
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VanSlyke18


Joined: 12 Jun 2006
Posts: 1805
Location: Butler, PA
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

glad i'm not the only one he can't carry on a sensible conversation with.

maybe the problem doesnt lie with us at all...?

STELRFAN: your argument is only reinforcing the idea to draft samardzija. sorry, try again.
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treat88


Joined: 03 Mar 2006
Posts: 6722
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2007 10:18 pm    Post subject: Re: dude Reply with quote

STELRFAN wrote:
dude no one is saying draft picks dont pan out my point is just because someone is picked in the first round doesnt guarantee stardom!


Being a first round pick does provide a statistically significant increase to a players chances at being a starting player in the league. There are busts, but many fewer occur in Rd 1 than later rounds.

There are stars in the later rounds as well, but many fewer than in the earlier rounds.

These are facts.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/04/24/ramblings/nfl-draft/3828/[/quote]
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nate3682


Joined: 13 Jan 2006
Posts: 471
PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2007 1:00 am    Post subject: Re: dude Reply with quote

treat88 wrote:
STELRFAN wrote:
dude no one is saying draft picks dont pan out my point is just because someone is picked in the first round doesnt guarantee stardom!


Being a first round pick does provide a statistically significant increase to a players chances at being a starting player in the league. There are busts, but many fewer occur in Rd 1 than later rounds.

There are stars in the later rounds as well, but many fewer than in the earlier rounds.

These are facts.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/04/24/ramblings/nfl-draft/3828/


This is what I've been trying to say, thanks for the link... I was trying to find something like this earlier.
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bigben07MVP


Joined: 09 Jul 2006
Posts: 10291
Location: Tallahassee, FL
PostPosted: Sat Apr 21, 2007 1:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I deffenitly wouldn't mind picking him up with our 7th. What else are we gunna use that pick on? A RB from Virginia Tech who can't make it past preseason?
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