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I Plead the Fifth!
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disaacs


Joined: 13 Dec 2005
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Location: Brownbackistan
PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:29 pm    Post subject: I Plead the Fifth! Reply with quote

Just to expand the conversation to something different, I'd like to get everyone's thoughts on the Fifth-Year Options for Harrison Smith and Matt Kalil (the Vikings have until 5/3 to pick up the option or not).

I think it's pretty much a gimme that Harrison's option will be picked up, with full intention on working on a long-term deal. However, Kalil is more tricky.

What are your thoughts? Will the Vikings pick up his option, which would be the equivalent of the transition tag, in the neighborhood of $11M and try to work out a deal for less money? Or will they decline the option and risk alienating Kalil?
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Heimdallr


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

is the 5th year option guaranteed money?

If so, I wouldn't give it to Kalil. Too much of a risk. I would let him play out the year and give him a transition/franchise tag if he plays well.

If the 5th year option isn't guaranteed, then sure. If he plays well and becomes a legitimate starting LT then he is worth $11M. If he doesn't play well, cut him.
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just as a FYI, it's not guaranteed, except for injury.
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What are the numbers of the fifth year option? Do we know that? Because if it's non-guaranteed 5 mil, I'd pick it up on Kalil as well, I think. Harrison Smith, I'd try and lock up longer than that.
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Gnat wrote:
What are the numbers of the fifth year option? Do we know that? Because if it's non-guaranteed 5 mil, I'd pick it up on Kalil as well, I think. Harrison Smith, I'd try and lock up longer than that.


It's the equivalent of the transition tag, which for OL this year was right around $11M.
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

disaacs wrote:
The Gnat wrote:
What are the numbers of the fifth year option? Do we know that? Because if it's non-guaranteed 5 mil, I'd pick it up on Kalil as well, I think. Harrison Smith, I'd try and lock up longer than that.


It's the equivalent of the transition tag, which for OL this year was right around $11M.


Ah, in that case, might as well just let him play out the last year and then resign him or tag him if need be.
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would give the 5th year option to both players regardless. The money isn't guaranteed, and it gives the team time to work on long term deals, which may become cheaper, and in Kalil's case, it let's the team see if he can improve, without the threat of him leaving in 2016 if he does.

Smith is worth whatever his 5th year will cost, and while $11 million is a bit rish for Kalil, it being only one year isn't all that concerning to me for the flexibility that it gives you.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 1:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kalil's option is the valued at the transition tag given his draft status as a top 10 pick.

Smith's is cheaper, the average of the 3rd-25th (some sources say 4th-25th) highest paid players at his position.

Both options should be picked up IMO.

With Kalil, the overpayment is modest (his rookie deal gives him $6.2M this year anyway) and hedges against him improving and suddenly becoming a prized free agent heading into 2016.

Smith should be locked down long-term at premium prices (~$9M/yr). It'd be nice if the Vikings can set a precedent that his extension will only kick in after his option year, as that will make future negotiations with Rhodes, Barr, Bridgewater etc, that much easier.
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
Kalil's option is the valued at the transition tag given his draft status as a top 10 pick.

Smith's is cheaper, the average of the 3rd-25th (some sources say 4th-25th) highest paid players at his position.

Both options should be picked up IMO.

With Kalil, the overpayment is modest (his rookie deal gives him $6.2M this year anyway) and hedges against him improving and suddenly becoming a prized free agent heading into 2016.

Smith should be locked down long-term at premium prices (~$9M/yr). It'd be nice if the Vikings can set a precedent that his extension will only kick in after his option year, as that will make future negotiations with Rhodes, Barr, Bridgewater etc, that much easier.

I agree that Smith should be locked down long term, but I don't think he's worth that $9M per year salary. He doesn't have the resume for it.
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paradise lost


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Harrison is well worth $9 million a year.

earl Thomas is making $10 a year, and I think he took a bit of a seattle discount. harry has shown he is one of the premier safeties in the league and has the type of versatility that zimmer loves.
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SemperFeist wrote:
Krauser wrote:
Kalil's option is the valued at the transition tag given his draft status as a top 10 pick.

Smith's is cheaper, the average of the 3rd-25th (some sources say 4th-25th) highest paid players at his position.

Both options should be picked up IMO.

With Kalil, the overpayment is modest (his rookie deal gives him $6.2M this year anyway) and hedges against him improving and suddenly becoming a prized free agent heading into 2016.

Smith should be locked down long-term at premium prices (~$9M/yr). It'd be nice if the Vikings can set a precedent that his extension will only kick in after his option year, as that will make future negotiations with Rhodes, Barr, Bridgewater etc, that much easier.

I agree that Smith should be locked down long term, but I don't think he's worth that $9M per year salary. He doesn't have the resume for it.


why? isn't he regarded as one of the top Free Safeties in the league?

I think 9mil is fine. Player contracts seem to get bigger and bigger every year for good-premium players. 9mil might not be all that bad 5 years down the road.

I agree with Krauser that we should extend Smith only after the option year, but I would not give Kalil the 5th year option. He truly doesn't have the resume for it.
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Based on his resume, Smith should get a contract at around $7M per year. There are 6 safeties that make $8M or more per year; Earl Thomas, Jarius Byrd, Devin McCourty, Eric Berry, Dashon Goldston, and Eric Weddle.

All six of those players have made the Pro Bowl, McCourty is the only player not to be a Pro Bowler multiple times. They all have been named to All-Pro teams.

Smith is a fan favorite and a great player, but why should he be paid like a top safety when he doesn't have a resume even close to the top safeties?
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SemperFeist wrote:
Based on his resume, Smith should get a contract at around $7M per year. There are 6 safeties that make $8M or more per year; Earl Thomas, Jarius Byrd, Devin McCourty, Eric Berry, Dashon Goldston, and Eric Weddle.

All six of those players have made the Pro Bowl, McCourty is the only player not to be a Pro Bowler multiple times. They all have been named to All-Pro teams.

Smith is a fan favorite and a great player, but why should he be paid like a top safety when he doesn't have a resume even close to the top safeties?


How do the actual on the field numbers add up compared to those guys? Really, Pro Bowl is kind of a lousy system for determining how much gets played. Looking at the numbers for last year, he's up there with the top safeties in terms of INT's, Sacks, and top 10 in passes defensed. Tackle numbers were a little bit lower, but not much.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Berry is on his rookie deal (pre CBA from 2010), Weddle signed his extension in 2011, Goldson in 2013.

Thomas makes $10M, McCourty $9.5M, Byrd $9M. Pro Bowls or not (Smith was snubbed this year in favor of Bethea and Quin, both good players but not as good as he is), Smith is worth a contract that comes close to that range.

Safeties who've signed extensions recently for $6-8M:
* Morgan Burnett
* Donte Whitner
* Reshad Jones
* Da'Norris Searcy

Smith is considerably better than that list. Glover Quin is in that price range, but he didn't wasn't thought of as a difference maker until the Lions defense became dominant in general.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 02, 2015 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Byrd, Weddle, Goldson, and Thomas all signed deals prior to the cap increase this year.

Percentage of the cap taken up is a more accurate measure. Harrison's play on the field is well worth a cap hit of around $9M. He's a much better safety than Byrd and Goldson. The only issue with Harrison has been health related back in 2013.
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