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Dtwizzy's 1st Round Mock With GOOD EXPLANATIONS (As of 3/15)
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dtwizzy2k5


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:29 pm    Post subject: Dtwizzy's 1st Round Mock With GOOD EXPLANATIONS (As of 3/15) Reply with quote

1. The Miami Dolphins select Chris Long, DE Virginia --- The Dolphins have needs at pretty much every position considering that the only good players on their team that come to mind from last year were Ronnie Brown and Jason Taylor. With all these needs, the Fins need to get the BPA to start their rebuilding process under Parcells. The best and safest players in this draft are DMC, both Longs, and Dorsey. While DMC is amazing, the Fins already have a good back. While Jake Long is very good, he's not on the same level as Chris Long and Glenn Dorsey in terms of an NFL prospect and Parcells likes defensive guys anyway. So, it comes down to Dorsey and Long. While Dorsey was very dominant in college, Long's pedigree would be intriguing to Parcells and is a safer pick due to Dorsey's injury concerns (albeit they are minor concerns). Also, Long would probably be more versatile in whatever scheme the Fins run on defense next year.

2. The St. Louis Rams select Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio State --- The Rams' biggest needs are DE, WR, OT, S, and LB (in no particular order). There obviously aren't any receivers, safeties, or linebackers worthy of the 2nd pick so the decision basically comes down to taking a DE, OT, or BPA. Two of the best players available at this point are DMC (who we obviously dont need) and Dorsey (who we also dont really need at DT). So it comes down to picking between oline and D-end. While i believe Jake Long is a better and safer prospect than Gholston and Gholston is a bit of a reach at #2, DE is a MUCH bigger need than OT for us at this point considering that our starting DEs are Little (34 years old coming off an injury) and Adeyanju (young decent player at best). OT, on the other hand, is in good shape compared to DE with Barron and Pace making a respectable tandem when healthy.

3. The Atlanta Falcons select Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU --- With the signing of Michael Turner in FA, the Falcons' draft decision basically comes down to picking between a OT, QB, or DT. As badly as the Falcons need a franchise quarterback, i truly believe that none of the QBs are worthy of being the 3rd pick and the Falcons probably have about the same chance of landing a good QB with the 34th pick. So, it comes down to picking between Jake Long and Dorsey, the best at their respective positions. Dorsey was much more dominant in college than Long and is a better prospect. Plus, this is a much deeper OT class than DT class so the Falcons can land an OT later on whereas they would have more trouble finding a starting DT later in the draft.

4. The Oakland Raiders select Sedrick Ellis, DT USC --- This pick clearly comes down to three players: Jake Long, Sedrick Ellis, or Darren McFadden. Considering that Sapp just retired and the Raiders currently have virtually nothing to offer at the DT position, Ellis is the smart pick here by virtue of pure and desperate need. The Raiders are already investing resources in a field of RBs such as Fargas, Jordan, Bush, and Rhodes, so it wouldnt be smart to throw in an extra 30 million in guarantees for an already crowded position. Having said that, Al Davis loves the playmaking physical specimens so i wouldnt be surprised if he took DMC (even though it's not the smart pick to make).

5. The Kansas City Chiefs select Jake Long, OT Michigan --- This is an absolute no-brainer at this point and really requires no explanation. The Chiefs have plenty of needs but the only big one that can be addressed with an elite prospect is offensive tackle, and so Long is the choice. I'd be surprised to see anybody really disagree with this pick considering what's left on the board. As for drafting a QB, i believe the Chiefs will at least stand by Croyle for one season or at worst draft an insurance policy later on.

6. The New York Jets select Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas --- Though the Jets have needs along the Dline, there really arent any prospects available who are even close to being as talented as Run DMC at this point. Thomas Jones was not effective last year, despite what his stats or others may lead you to believe. McFadden is arguably the best prospect in the draft and could provide the same playmaking ability that AD gave the Vikings last year.

7. The New England Patriots select Mike Jenkins, CB USF --- The Patriots have as close to a flawless roster as you can get and they dont have many needs. With Gay and Samuel leaving at corner, there is a gaping hole at CB and they could also use another LB or two considering the age of those guys. However, since there arent any real good 3-4 LB prospects at this point in the draft, the Pats have to take a corner (even though any corner at this point is a bit of a reach). Admittedly, i havent seen guys like McKelvin and Cromartie play first hand considering the schools they go to (who has?), but questions about the level of competition they face may push Jenkins to the top of the class. Really, I'm not sure at all as to who the best corner is in this draft so this pick could really be interchangeable with several other corners.

8. The Baltimore Ravens select Brian Brohm, QB Louisville --- Considering the players available, the Ravens' decision really comes down to picking between a quarterback and a cornerback. Since there aren't any clear cut corners worthy of a top 10 pick and the depth of the class allows the Ravens to address that need later on, the Ravens should take a QB here. The real question, then, is do they take Ryan or Brohm? That is a thread in itself but i really havent seen any real weaknesses in Brohm besides some past injury concerns (not a big deal at this point) whereas Ryan is an overhyped product of the media who lacks great physical abilities, has questionable decision making, and doesnt have great accuracy. Plus, Brohm has the pedigree, high completion percentage, and great experience (especially in a pro style offense). These factors historically point to success in highly drafted QBs.

9. The Cincinnatti Bengals select Keith Rivers, LB USC --- I think everybody will agree that the Bengals need to address the defense with this pick. There arent any safeties worthy of this pick, and the Bengals have already addressed corner in recent drafts. Furthermore, there arent any DTs left who are worthy of this pick. So, it comes down to picking between the best DE available (Harvey) and the best LB (Rivers). This was a tough choice to me because neither are worthy of top 10 picks but in the end i gave a slight edge to Rivers because i think he has a higher chance of making an immediate impact leading that defense than a guy like Derrick Harvey does.

10. The New Orleans Saints select Leodis McKelvin, CB Troy --- Having addressed LB in FA and having a solid pair of DEs, the Saints need to upgrade at DT, S, and CB on defense. There aren't any safeties or DTs worthy of the 10th pick, so the Saints take the best corner available (which could be any number of players like i mentioned earlier).

11. The Buffalo Bills select Limas Sweed, WR Texas --- Surprisingly enough, the Bills dont have many glaring weaknesses and have done a good job in FA by bringing in guys like Marcus Stroud and Kawika Mitchell. On defense, they dont have any real big weaknesses since they have a lot of young up-and-comers like Paul Poz, John McCargo, etc. On offense, they could use a new QB but it's way too early to give up on the Edwards plan so they should take a big talented WR to complement Evans. Teams will look past Sweed's minor wrist injury which is completely healed and realize that he is probably the best talent at WR this year.

12. The Broncos select Ryan Clady, OT Boise State --- The Broncos have plenty of needs to fill this year. They could use a new RB, OT, DE, DT, LB, and S. There aren't any LBs, Safeties, or DTs worthy of being picked this high so you can rule those out. Also, the Broncos have invested in DE recently with guys like Dumervil and Jarvis Moss who will hopefully step up for them this year. So, this comes down to the best OT available versus the best RB available. It's a tough choice but ultimately OT is a more important position than RB, the Broncos never valued high drafted RBs anyway, and this is a very deep RB class so the broncos can get one later. Clady can play a ZBS and this should be the pick here.

13. The Carolina Panthers select Derrick Harvey, DE Florida --- The Panthers have plenty of needs, most of which are on defense. They need a safety to compliment Chris Harris, but this is too high to pick a safety. They could use some linebackers after losing Dan Morgan, but again this is too high to pick any available LBs. Their CBs are solid and they dont need one here. There arent any DTs worthy of this pick, so really it comes down to the best DE available to try and make up for the unit's lack of production last year. Some would argue that the Panthers could use a compliment WR, but this is a deep WR class and any WR here would be a bit of a reach anyway. Some would want a RB, but they drafted Williams in the first round for a reason and now they are giving him the full starting role. Some may even ask for a QB here but i dont think John Fox will quit on Delhomme like that and there arent any great QB prospects available here anyways.

14. The Chicago Bears select Rashard Mendenhall, RB Illinois --- This is a difficult and controversial pick for sure. First off, the Bears currently have the worst offense in the league and DESPERATELY NEED HELP on that side of the ball, so this pick has to be an offensive one. They wont pick a WR because it's not as important of a position as the others on offense, there arent any great WRs available, and it's a deep class anyway so they can get one later. Basically, it comes down to picking between Matt Ryan, Mendenhall, or the best OT available. While the bears really need help at all these positions, i believe Mendenhall is the most talented offensive guy left on the board and can make an immediate impact as a playmaker. Once again i want to emphasize that Matt Ryan is overrated by everybody and isn't as talented as a guy like Mendenhall. The Bears take the playmaker here and address QB later like the Dolphins did last year in the first round. Realistically, the dropoff between Ryan and a QB in the 2nd round isnt all that big whereas there may not be another potential stud RB left in the 2nd round or later.

15. The Detroit Lions select Jonathan Stewart, RB Oregon --- The Lions need help on defense, as well as at QB, RB, and OT on offense. Looking at the prospects left on the board, there really arent any defensive guys who are better prospects than guys like Ryan, Stewart, or Otah except for maybe some cornerbacks but ultimately CBs arent nearly as important of a position when building a team as QB, OT, or RB. Thus, the Lions are in a position very similar to the Bears before them where they have to pick between Ryan to replace Kitna, a potential stud RB, or the best OT available. Using the same reasoning as above, the Lions take the stud RB and worry about the other stuff later on.

16. The Arizona Cardinals select Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Tennessee State --- The Cards need a RB and a DB here. The value at corner is simply better than RB now that the "big three" have been taken so the Cards take the best corner available. Like i said before, this could be a number of players and i really havent watched enough corner play myself to make a very informed decision but based on everything other people have been saying it seems like DRC is the best corner available here.

17. The Minnesota Vikings select Phillip Merling, DE Clemson --- The Vikings pass rush was bad last year. With Udeze's cancer diagnosis, this becomes an even bigger need and the Vikings are DESPERATE for a DE at this point so they take one even though there are better prospects they could take like Matt Ryan, Malcolm Kelly, or any number of corners.

18. The Houston Texans select Antoine Cason, CB Arizona --- This was one of the hardest picks to decide on considering the needs that this team has. The Texans could use help at S, CB, LB, OT, and RB. Due to lack of available talent i ruled out S and LB, which leaves us to pick between the best available RB, OT, or CB. Since it's easier to find good RBs later on (especially in a very deep class like this one) and the "big three" are taken anyway, i decided not to take a runner. In the end, i really felt that the Texans are in an emergency situation right now as far as their secondary is concerned considering that Dunta will be injured for most of the year as well. I gave them Cason because the main knock on him was lack of speed but he ran a good forty at the combine and doesnt get enough credit that he deserves. He is very experienced and does everything well, and so there really isnt any reason why he should get drafted later like some people believe.

19. The Philadelphia Eagles select Chris Williams, OT Vanderbilt --- This was a relatively easy pick to make considering that the Birds dont have many real weaknesses. They could use an OT to be the eventual replacement for the old tandem that they currently have, but the Eagles have shown a strong effort to address the WR position in free agency and so this creates another interesting option. However, there aren't any really special WRs in this draft so they can afford to wait till the next round. Besides, Reid loves linemen and the Eagles dont like taking WRs in round one.

20. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Matt Ryan, QB Boston College --- This is a very good value pick and Ryan gets drafted where he deserves, which is the mid to late first round. Jeff Garcia is very old and Ryan can sit and learn, eventually becoming the franchise replacement. This is a similar situation to what happened to the Packers with Aaron Rodgers a few years back, with a top 5 projected QB falling to a team with an old QB later in the round.

21. The Washington Redskins select Malcolm Kelly, WR Oklahoma --- The Redskins could use help at WR, DT, and DE. Since there arent any Dlinemen really worthy of this pick, the Skins take a WR to compliment Moss in the passing game. Kelly has great size at 6'4" and is arguably the best WR prospect. This is the perfect compliment to a short, quick receiver like Moss. Considering how few touchdowns the WRs scored for Washington last year, this is a good pick for them, even if it is a bit of a reach.

22. The Dallas Cowboys select Quentin Groves, DE/LB Auburn --- Before Boys fans jump all over me, let me explain. A lot of fans want a corner here, but they already have an elite one in Newman and with the depth in this draft they can afford to wait until next round. I've seen some mocks give the Boys a RB, but this is just nonsensical because Marion Barber is good and very capable of working by himself. In this deep RB class, the Boys can get a compliment back later on if they really want to. However, there arent many great 3-4 LB prospects in the draft so Groves is a good pick to replace ineffective players like Akin Ayodele.

23. The Pittsburgh Steelers select Jeff Otah, OT Pittsburgh --- This was another very easy pick as value meets need in Otah. I've seen pretty much 100% of mocks give the Burgh a Olineman and this one is no different.

24. The Tennessee Titans select James Hardy, WR Indiana --- The Titans could have gone in several directions with this. I considered guys like Dan Connor and Kenny Phillips to fill positions of need, but the Titan's hole at WR is really a massive one at this point that must be addressed. As for other WRs, Manningham is overrated and ran a slow forty, and Desean is way too small to be a first round pick. But i wont get into dissecting each individual WR, as that is probably for a different time and different thread.

25. The Seattle Seahawks select Kentwan Balmer, DT UNC --- The Hawks could take a RB here, but since they just got Julius Jones to pair with Maurice Morris and this is a deep RB class, they decide against it. They could take an interior lineman here like Branden Albert, but ultimately i gave the slight edge to Balmer to make their run defense even better than it already is.

26. The Jacksonville Jaguars select Kenny Phillips, S Miami --- The Jags need a WR, DE, and could also use some depth at DB. Since there aren't any DEs left who are worthy of a first round pick, it comes down to picking between DB and WR. Ernest Wilford at WR was a starter lost in free agency. However, Garrard did well in the passing game without a true #1 threat last year and i truly believe no WR is worth this pick so they go DB instead. Admittedly, receiver is a much bigger need but Manningham's inconsistency as a senior and slow forty time and Desean Jackson's lack of size prove to be too risky of a pick in the first round.

27. The San Diego Chargers select Reggie Smith, S Oklahoma --- The Chargers lack any serious weaknesses, but they could use some help at safety so they take the best one available. They are pretty solid at every other position.

28. The Dallas Cowboys select Brandon Flowers, CB Virginia Tech --- Flowers is very underrated and this gives the Boys the CB depth they need. Flowers is a very good cover corner who is also extremely physical and a great tackler. I'm going to stick to my belief that the Boys dont need a RB here so this is the pick.

29. The San Francisco 49ers select Joe Flacco, QB Delaware --- Why not? This is my surprise pick of the first round right here. The niners had the worst offense in the league statistically and people want to blame the WRs but honestly it all starts with the QB and Alex SMith/Shaun Hill are not good and are not the answer. Currently they dont even have a starter named at QB! Flacco is a good player and is a boom or bust type of prospect for the niners. They couldve addressed WR but what difference does it make when you need a QB? Safety was also an option with a guy like Reggie Smith or somehting but i think Flacco has much more potential to help the franchise out here.

30. The Green Bay Packers select Aqib Talib, CB Kansas --- There arent any real needs here but CB depth is a concern that Talib can address with his playmaking abilities. Plus, Al Harris and Woodson are getting up there in age so this is a pretty easy pick.

31. The New York Giants select Dan Connor, LB Penn State --- This is a very good pick for the Giants. I believe Connor is slightly underrated by a lot of people and this is a great value pick. Especially after losing Kawika Mitchell, the Giants need a linebacker. This is a perfect pick where need meets value.
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Last edited by dtwizzy2k5 on Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:41 pm; edited 3 times in total
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simonfsho


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

good eagles pick
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ninjapirate


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bad eagles pick. No way does our FO take a receiver in round one. That's not an upgrade to what we have it's a dude that'll sit on the bench for 3 years.
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Vhawk413


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like the pick, but I am not sure if the front office in real life would pass on Ryan at 17. They would not take Kelly, but I think they would Ryan, or look to trade down, to maybe Atlanta or Miami, who both have 2 2nd rounders and a need for a QB
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Vhawk413


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 12:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ninjapirate wrote:
bad eagles pick. No way does our FO take a receiver in round one. That's not an upgrade to what we have it's a dude that'll sit on the bench for 3 years.


Since our coach came from Phi, and follows the same thing as Andy Reid, I can agree, Philadelphia will not go WR in round 1, either will MN, the coaching staffs do not like it. The one Phi has taken in my memory under Andy Reid, Freddie Mitchell, was selling insurance by like 28 about, sue to being too bad to stay in the league
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khodder


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 12:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice Card's pick, Cason or DRC would be great.

As for RB being a need,it is not it would be a luxury pick.
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dtwizzy2k5


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 6:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like i mentioned in the OP, i considered giving Philly a OT to be the eventual replacement for their older guys, especially since the eagles love to draft linemen and hate to draft WRs in the first round. However, it's not as if the eagles have never picked a WR in round one and i gave them one because they are showing VERY strong pursuit of a WR in free agency, what with the mega deals they offered Randy Moss and the trades they put on the table for Larry Fitzgerald. This time around, the Eagles actually seem serious about upgrading at WR.
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SadLionFan00


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 6:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bap lions pick, we wont use a 1st on stewart now with his injury, in that situation, which is a bad situation, we would probley go with Otah, Harvey or Mendenhall would be prefferred though.
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jbwallace23


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jenkins is not a top 15 CB so they will look at DRC or McKelvin.


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ninjaneer


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 7:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Devin Thomas at 22 and Talib at 28. I understand your explanation for drafting Groves, but we have plenty of linebackers. (Ellis, Ware, Burnett, Spencer, Thomas, Ayodele, James and Carpenter) A DE/LB hybrid would be playing OLB in a 3-4 which we have covered. Smile
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Miami49er


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Joe Flacco in the first round? did CT put you up to this? Think

THERE IS NO WAY the niners take a qb before the 4th round. especially Joe Flacco who's a second round talent. that is a WASTE of a first round pick.
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That is a solid pick for the Vikings, I would be happy with getting Merling, he isn't an elite pass rusher, but he wouldn't be bad for the Vikings.
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Bigdaddy237


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ninjaneer wrote:
Devin Thomas at 22 and Talib at 28. I understand your explanation for drafting Groves, but we have plenty of linebackers. (Ellis, Ware, Burnett, Spencer, Thomas, Ayodele, James and Carpenter) A DE/LB hybrid would be playing OLB in a 3-4 which we have covered. Smile


I agree 1000% percent with my fellow Cowboy fan. We have drafted 1rst rnd OLB 3 years in a row. We are not the Lions. We will draft need + value and an oft injured, undersized, low motor OLB is not either. Let someone else draft groves and be disappointed by his softness.
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sandyf


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agree with BigDaddy, no way Dallas will draft Groves or any other DE/OLB in the 1st round. This will be a CB, WR, RB for Jerry Jones in the draft.

There are plenty of WR in the draft and none of which I would call sure things so I could see a CB at 22 and then a trade down at 28 and pick up a WR and RB in the second.

Depending on Jonathan Stewart status, I might revise that to where the Boys take Felix Jones at 22. Stewart appartently needs surgery on his big toe and could be out 4 to 6 months.

There is no way Matt Ryan falls to #20. You must hate the guy. If anything Brohm will be the guy at #20. Whether you like it or not Ryan will end up in the top ten picks. Not saying I think he will be great or not, just the math says that is where he will go.
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Twinblade


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 13, 2008 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finally, somebody else sees it that the falcons need a DT more then a OT.
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