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BigBen7
Joined: 01 Jan 2006
Posts: 21861
Location: England
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 Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 6:42 pm Post subject: John Clayton: Schedule favors these five teams |
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John Clayton: Schedule favors these five teams
| Quote: | Parity, that boring word used in NFL circles to give each team hope, hit home in 2006.
Eight teams finished 8-8. Nine teams lost 10 or more games, and only eight won 10 or more games. For those, like me, who closely follow the schedule for trends, parity eliminates the extreme in studying the 2007 schedule. With so many teams between seven and nine wins, you don't have schedules that are ridiculously hard or ridiculously easy. Nevertheless, the schedule is everything in previewing a season. Today's mission is identifying five teams that could be pegged as surprises. Those would be teams vaulting from double-digit losses and having the chance to improve by three or four games. For any team to make a significant jump, it needs the luck of the easy schedule. Since 1997, 62 teams made four-game improvements from the previous season. It's no coincidence that 51 of those teams played sub-.500 schedules. |
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=2932670
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broncos67
Joined: 28 Dec 2006
Posts: 23526
Location: Conshohocken
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:09 pm Post subject: |
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The title of this is kind of misleading. It seems like Clayton is trying to peg teams that will be surprise teams, not teams with favorable schedules.
No homerism, but favorable is Denver playing a third place schedule and having a very easy first 9 games. Favorable isn't teams who weren't so good last year eveolving into contenders.
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Volcom_stone10
Joined: 11 Nov 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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No, its about Schedules.
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Bednarik60
Joined: 23 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:25 pm Post subject: |
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Clayton:
| Quote: | | The Bucs played a .535 schedule with a rookie quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, who will be forgotten as fast as Kyle Orton was after the 2005 season. |
thats funny
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khodder
Joined: 19 Dec 2005
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Location: New New York
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Bednarik60 wrote: | Clayton:
| Quote: | | The Bucs played a .535 schedule with a rookie quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, who will be forgotten as fast as Kyle Orton was after the 2005 season. |
thats funny |
It is also very true. He may be cut.
Zona has the easiest schedule in the entire NFL this season. Playing a 4th place schedule.
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Go Bolts
Joined: 14 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 9:37 pm Post subject: |
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Aren't those everybody's sleeper teams? And of course, all those teams were losers last season, so they have easy schedules, that is the way it works. Nice try, John.
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ninerminer49
Joined: 15 Mar 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jul 13, 2007 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Go Bolts wrote: | | Aren't those everybody's sleeper teams? And of course, all those teams were losers last season, so they have easy schedules, that is the way it works. Nice try, John. |
I'm pretty sure that is not how it works.
EDIT: Some of the games are determined by this. But not all of them. |
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Vigilante
Joined: 07 Jan 2005
Posts: 3234
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| Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 9:38 pm Post subject: |
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| khodder wrote: | | Bednarik60 wrote: | Clayton:
| Quote: | | The Bucs played a .535 schedule with a rookie quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, who will be forgotten as fast as Kyle Orton was after the 2005 season. |
thats funny |
It is also very true. He may be cut.
Zona has the easiest schedule in the entire NFL this season. Playing a 4th place schedule. |
and I dont understand how he could be cut? 
can someone please tell me why teams dont value players like Samkon Gado or Gradkowski - players who did well and exceeded expectations?
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LHEEZY
Joined: 28 Dec 2006
Posts: 4169
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| Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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| ninerminer49 wrote: | | Go Bolts wrote: | | Aren't those everybody's sleeper teams? And of course, all those teams were losers last season, so they have easy schedules, that is the way it works. Nice try, John. |
I'm pretty sure that is not how it works.
EDIT: Some of the games are determined by this. But not all of them. |
 There are 2 games on each schedule that are made based on winning percentage or division finish.
There are 8 games between two selected divisions
There are 6 division games.
I am not sure on what determines which divsion you play though.
Last edited by LHEEZY on Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:10 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Nature
Joined: 10 Mar 2007
Posts: 4284
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| Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 9:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Vigilante wrote: | | khodder wrote: | | Bednarik60 wrote: | Clayton:
| Quote: | | The Bucs played a .535 schedule with a rookie quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, who will be forgotten as fast as Kyle Orton was after the 2005 season. |
thats funny |
It is also very true. He may be cut.
Zona has the easiest schedule in the entire NFL this season. Playing a 4th place schedule. |
and I dont understand how he could be cut?
can someone please tell me why teams dont value players like Samkon Gado or Gradkowski - players who did well and exceeded expectations? |
I don't get it either. The kid was a 6th round pick from Toledo and had to pick up Grudens complicated offense up in a matter of weeks.
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tipceey
Joined: 16 Jan 2007
Posts: 9052
Location: The Peanut Gallery
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| Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Nature wrote: | | Vigilante wrote: | | khodder wrote: | | Bednarik60 wrote: | Clayton:
| Quote: | | The Bucs played a .535 schedule with a rookie quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, who will be forgotten as fast as Kyle Orton was after the 2005 season. |
thats funny |
It is also very true. He may be cut.
Zona has the easiest schedule in the entire NFL this season. Playing a 4th place schedule. |
and I dont understand how he could be cut?
can someone please tell me why teams dont value players like Samkon Gado or Gradkowski - players who did well and exceeded expectations? |
I don't get it either. The kid was a 6th round pick from Toledo and had to pick up Grudens complicated offense up in a matter of weeks. |
i hope they youtube his reaction after he is cut...
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Mac
Joined: 15 Dec 2005
Posts: 3139
Location: Barnseville, Ohio
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| Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 10:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Nature wrote: | | Vigilante wrote: | | khodder wrote: | | Bednarik60 wrote: | Clayton:
| Quote: | | The Bucs played a .535 schedule with a rookie quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, who will be forgotten as fast as Kyle Orton was after the 2005 season. |
thats funny |
It is also very true. He may be cut.
Zona has the easiest schedule in the entire NFL this season. Playing a 4th place schedule. |
and I dont understand how he could be cut?
can someone please tell me why teams dont value players like Samkon Gado or Gradkowski - players who did well and exceeded expectations? |
I don't get it either. The kid was a 6th round pick from Toledo and had to pick up Grudens complicated offense up in a matter of weeks. |
I know what you guys mean.....
I was a big fan of Samkon Gado, and really wanted the packers to give him a starting shot after Green left, but they traded him to Houston for some reason.
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dbtb135
Joined: 22 Oct 2005
Posts: 3834
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| Posted: Sat Jul 14, 2007 11:00 pm Post subject: |
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| Vigilante wrote: | and I dont understand how he could be cut?
can someone please tell me why teams dont value players like Samkon Gado or Gradkowski - players who did well and exceeded expectations? |
Grads did well? |
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Woz
Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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Location: in a land where the furniture folds to a much smaller size
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| Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 8:05 pm Post subject: |
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| LHEEZY wrote: | | I am not sure on what determines which divsion you play though. |
It rotates on a three year schedule for other divisions in your conference, and on a four year schedule for the division in the opposite conference. Let me use the NFC East as an example.
NFC Division Rotation for the NFC East
Year A: NFC West
Year B: NFC South
Year C: NFC North
AFC Division Rotation for the NFC East
Year A: AFC South
Year B: AFC East
Year C: AFC North
Year D: AFC West
You loop back to Year A after the last year in the rotation is played.
So, since this is the sixth year since the current system was enacted, you can determine what divisions are playing the NFC East this season in one of two ways:
1. The first way is to count the number of years and roll over when you run out of space entries.
[geek]2. You use modulus division (set the values to be 0 based, and then mod 3 for same conference or mod 4 for opposite conference).[/geek]
So, to complete the example, we see that the NFC East this season plays the NFC North and the AFC East. Now you know.
This, incidentally, is one of the reasons I think the NFL is going to have a hard time adding new teams to the league. This schedule allows teams to predict quite a bit into the future 14 of the 16 teams they will be playing, thus allowing for planning for the trips (in terms of flights and accommodations). It also is nice and balanced, so you don't have to worry about certain divisions being slightly larger than others.
Of course, this in turn means that those teams that are not geographically tied down to a location with a new stadium (New Orleans, Oakland, and San Diego) are going to be heavily courted to go to new markets (read: LA). I could be wrong, though. |
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EvilNuff
Joined: 10 Feb 2007
Posts: 849
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| Posted: Wed Jul 18, 2007 5:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | With so many teams between seven and nine wins, you don't have schedules that are ridiculously hard or ridiculously easy. |
I have to disagree with Clayton here. The real change is fixed schedules based on division. With only two strength of schedule games, a last place team one year no longer gets a big chunk of their schedule vs other last place teams...now its just two games. That is the real reason you don't see really hard and easy schedules. |
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