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Coaches On The Bubble: Floor Of Expectations In 2017
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LLcheesehead12


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:30 pm    Post subject: Coaches On The Bubble: Floor Of Expectations In 2017 Reply with quote

Leaving out some of the first and second year head coaches in this such as Hue Jackson, Kyle Shannahan, Sean McVay, McDermot, Lynn and Koetter. I'm looking at where some of the more established coaches who are on the hot seat or bubble and what they gotta do to get off the bubble or even keep their jobs.


John Fox: Obviously the guy who seems to be primed to getting shown the door first. The retirement of Cutler really puts the heat on him to pull a few rabbits out of the hat and with his QB competition being between Sanchez, Glennon, and Shaw ... he's going to have to do something fast to generate wins. I certainly think the Bears can forget winning that division with Green Bay being up there and likely Minny finishing right behind them. I think Detroit may come down a little from 9-7, but their floor still looks a lot higher than the Bears right now. Fox is certainly going to have to do better than 3-13 this year despite his QB situation. Will winning 7 or 8 games buy enough good will to keep him around one more year?

Todd Bowles: I guess it's anyone's guess what he's going to have to do to get back in the good will of the fans and the owner, but no doubt going 5-11 or worse will spell the end of his tenure there. I don't see anyone knocking the Pats off their perch until Brady retires, but will winning 8 or 9 games for Bowles put him back in good grace? The wildcard here might be the Dolphins who have a fairly high bar of expectations they gotta live up to after last year. But gotta think the Jets have to show some signs of momentum changing back towards 2015 to justify keeping Bowles.

Chuck Pagano: Biggest name on the bubble right now. Assuming Luck stays healthy all year this time, 8-8 is not going to cut it here. I think Pagano is going to have to win at least 11 games because the Texans ceiling appears to be 9, Titans improved last year though there's still no telling what's going to happen with them this year, and the bottom line is the Colts have the best QB in the AFC South. With Grigson gone now and really no more excuses for Pagano to hide behind, the Colts have to regain the driver's seat in the AFC South or there will be a new sheriff in town in 2018.

Marvin Lewis: Mike Brown put the ball in Lewis's court this time by keeping him in lame duck status and telling him to show the goods. If there is another losing season in Cincy this year, I think the long-awaited departure of Marvin Lewis will happen. If he rebounds with another winning season but one and done playoff loss ... one might expect Brown will go back to keeping him on the leash with the 1-year extensions. But I certainly think any losing season or signs that the players have finally quit on Marvin and he's gone for real. I think for Marvin to stick around, he'll have to make the playoffs though ... well most natives will now say he actually has to win a playoff game to get back in their good graces.

Sean Payton: Despite that 5-year contract extension he got not long ago you just can't imagine that something won't go down to get him walking out of New Orleans if there's another 7-9 or worse season there. You just keep asking when is this team going to do something to send their highly-respected QB off with at least one more winning season and playoff run? Obviously they've got the Falcons, potentially a rebounding Panthers team and a Bucs team that's supposed to be on the rise, but those just can't be looked at as excuses for a coach like Payton who has done better. How much better than 7-9 will he have to do to cool that hot seat down a bit? I don't know but it's been said things are getting a little stale in NOLA, and Payton's going to have to pull off something soon to erase that notion.

Ron Rivera: Payton's counterpart may also be nearing the bubble IF he doesn't make use of the tools he's just had restocked in his shed with this last draft. On paper things look and sound pretty good for Carolina so one would expect a bounce back after a bad year last year as well as competing and maybe even overtaking the Falcons is in order (depending on what Sarkisian's offense looks like there). But if this does not happen and things don't significantly improve from last year to the tune of maybe 9-7 at least, Rivera may have just coached his last year in Carolina barring another 2014 type season.

Then on the outer edge but not quite in the death knell might be John Harbaugh and Bruce Arians. Harbaugh is pretty respected and probably not in any big danger, but one would expect given the Ravens' schedule this year that there'd have to be some improvement over 8-8 which if there isn't probably doesn't get him fired, but will heat up his seat a little more I'd think. Arians also, despite the Michael Floyd issue also should have a better season than 7 wins. One might argue though that failures may be more so the fault of Carson Palmer who will be 38 by the time this season is over and may have to be shipped out before Arians, so time may need to play out a little more in Arizona before jury rules on this one.
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RaidersAreOne


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:51 pm    Post subject: Re: Coaches On The Bubble: Floor Of Expectations In 2017 Reply with quote

LLcheesehead12 wrote:

John Fox: Obviously the guy who seems to be primed to getting shown the door first. The retirement of Cutler really puts the heat on him to pull a few rabbits out of the hat and with his QB competition being between Sanchez, Glennon, and Shaw ... he's going to have to do something fast to generate wins. I certainly think the Bears can forget winning that division with Green Bay being up there and likely Minny finishing right behind them. I think Detroit may come down a little from 9-7, but their floor still looks a lot higher than the Bears right now. Fox is certainly going to have to do better than 3-13 this year despite his QB situation. Will winning 7 or 8 games buy enough good will to keep him around one more year?


The 2nd overall pick isn't included in the QB competition?
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LLcheesehead12


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:08 pm    Post subject: Re: Coaches On The Bubble: Floor Of Expectations In 2017 Reply with quote

RaidersAreOne wrote:
LLcheesehead12 wrote:

John Fox: Obviously the guy who seems to be primed to getting shown the door first. The retirement of Cutler really puts the heat on him to pull a few rabbits out of the hat and with his QB competition being between Sanchez, Glennon, and Shaw ... he's going to have to do something fast to generate wins. I certainly think the Bears can forget winning that division with Green Bay being up there and likely Minny finishing right behind them. I think Detroit may come down a little from 9-7, but their floor still looks a lot higher than the Bears right now. Fox is certainly going to have to do better than 3-13 this year despite his QB situation. Will winning 7 or 8 games buy enough good will to keep him around one more year?


The 2nd overall pick isn't included in the QB competition?


Well my assumption is Fox looks at the vets before the rookie, but if things don't get going soon under those vets, he probably will see action quick. I'm just not hearing the same kind of hype around him that I heard around Manziel, Mariota or even Goff last year.
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ChazStandard


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not completely impossible that McCarthy comes under some pressure if GB suffer another play-off disappointment. Several one-and-dones and no SB appearance in 7 years with one of the best QBs of all time.

Add in that, in several of those PO losses, he has thoroughly out coached, and you can imagine GB getting impatient.

I'm not saying he's top of the list, but it's possible.
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RaidersAreOne


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:13 pm    Post subject: Re: Coaches On The Bubble: Floor Of Expectations In 2017 Reply with quote

LLcheesehead12 wrote:
RaidersAreOne wrote:
LLcheesehead12 wrote:

John Fox: Obviously the guy who seems to be primed to getting shown the door first. The retirement of Cutler really puts the heat on him to pull a few rabbits out of the hat and with his QB competition being between Sanchez, Glennon, and Shaw ... he's going to have to do something fast to generate wins. I certainly think the Bears can forget winning that division with Green Bay being up there and likely Minny finishing right behind them. I think Detroit may come down a little from 9-7, but their floor still looks a lot higher than the Bears right now. Fox is certainly going to have to do better than 3-13 this year despite his QB situation. Will winning 7 or 8 games buy enough good will to keep him around one more year?


The 2nd overall pick isn't included in the QB competition?


Well my assumption is Fox looks at the vets before the rookie, but if things don't get going soon under those vets, he probably will see action quick. I'm just not hearing the same kind of hype around him that I heard around Manziel, Mariota or even Goff last year.


Fair enough. Regardless of opinions, a highly touted and high draft pick would definitely "be in the competition" in my mind. I think it's safe to say Glennon will/should be the starter over the other QB's mentioned.
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OleXmad


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In response to the coaches mentioned.

John Fox: Most likely to get fired IMO as a lame duck coach and the fact the offense has Jordan Howard, a decent o-line and not much else besides an overdrafted rookie QB.

Todd Bowles: The GM gutted the roster and Bowles has next to no talent everywhere, I'd imagine he'll get fired but he might get a shot if he's in the GM's plans for the long term.

Chuck Pagano: The colts defense is....Pretty awful despite the recent talent additions, Go to the playoffs of he's fired seems the most likely but Jim Irsay is probably too high to notice anything.

Marvin Lewis: Marvin Lewis's job has been safe for quite a while and I'd imagine it will be safe even if the team struggles this year.

Sean Payton: Yeah sean isn't going anywhere since he signed that big contract and if New Orleans fired him they'd still have to pay him. Him+Brees to the end.

Ron Rivera: 15-1 one season ago plus his QB was hurt last year, he's safe.

John Harbaugh: John Harbaugh's job is as safe as they come, sure there's some concern but the ravens aren't exactly going to find an upgrade on him.

Bruce Arians: He coached through Kidney Cancer for the cardinals so this is probably the cardinals last year with Palmer+Fitz+Arians all together. I'd imagine one if not all three could retire next year...Sadly.
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LLcheesehead12


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OleXmad wrote:
In response to the coaches mentioned.

John Fox: Most likely to get fired IMO as a lame duck coach and the fact the offense has Jordan Howard, a decent o-line and not much else besides an overdrafted rookie QB.

Todd Bowles: The GM gutted the roster and Bowles has next to no talent everywhere, I'd imagine he'll get fired but he might get a shot if he's in the GM's plans for the long term.

Chuck Pagano: The colts defense is....Pretty awful despite the recent talent additions, Go to the playoffs of he's fired seems the most likely but Jim Irsay is probably too high to notice anything.

Marvin Lewis: Marvin Lewis's job has been safe for quite a while and I'd imagine it will be safe even if the team struggles this year.

Sean Payton: Yeah sean isn't going anywhere since he signed that big contract and if New Orleans fired him they'd still have to pay him. Him+Brees to the end.

Ron Rivera: 15-1 one season ago plus his QB was hurt last year, he's safe.

John Harbaugh: John Harbaugh's job is as safe as they come, sure there's some concern but the ravens aren't exactly going to find an upgrade on him.

Bruce Arians: He coached through Kidney Cancer for the cardinals so this is probably the cardinals last year with Palmer+Fitz+Arians all together. I'd imagine one if not all three could retire next year...Sadly.


1. I'd this is because the Jets brought back a good part of the roster in 2016 that brought them the winning season in 2015 and regressed, and now they want to try and get this thing right by overturning it. I'll admit an overhaul should amount to a little more time for a HC to get it right, but I still think Bowles has to improve over 5-11.

2. I'm pretty sure Irsay gave Pagano the ultimatum this time. Most times owners don't fire GMs without kicking the coach out too, but he was willing to say "ok, I've gotten rid of the greater evil (Grigson), now you'd better keep your end of the deal here." It's playoffs or bust for Pagano for sure.

3. I put Marvin Lewis on that list because normally as I said, a contract extension is always following him around. He didn't get it this time which tells me someone in the Brown family box is saying they finally won't accept another back-to-back losing season. He got a mulligan once after 2008 was a back-to-back losing season, but looks like this time he won't. Ok I won't be surprised if he is still around, but I do think the end is getting closer than he thinks.

4. I keep reading stuff out there that seems to indicate even with that contract Payton has no guarantee of sticking around if he doesn't deliver. I'm not going to speculate on Brees because I think no matter if Payton's gone or not they'd ride him out till retirement unless he asked to be traded. But as Jeff Fisher learned last year, contract extensions don't guarantee no firing.

5. As I said, I actually expect the Panthers to compete this year and maybe climb back on top of Atlanta, but I've been hearing more grumblings coming out of this fan base than you might think. He's had 2 winning seasons but 4 losing ones, just that one of them happened to be a playoff qualifier despite being a losing record. Trust me if he goes 6-10 again, and I think he'll do better than that, I really do, but if he does that seat is going to be much hotter than you think even with the 2015 season.
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Jason_Bengal_Fl


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A losing record won't be enough to fire Marvin Lewis. He and Mike Brown have a very good working relationship and Mike trusts him. For Marvin to get fired would take:

The team visibly quits on him. Not just has a losing record, but truly quits on him.

He betrays Mike in some way. Mike Brown is very loyal and places a high value on loyalty.
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jason_Bengal_Fl wrote:
A losing record won't be enough to fire Marvin Lewis. He and Mike Brown have a very good working relationship and Mike trusts him. For Marvin to get fired would take:

The team visibly quits on him. Not just has a losing record, but truly quits on him.

He betrays Mike in some way. Mike Brown is very loyal and places a high value on loyalty.


This.

The players have never quit on him. They stand up for him, sometimes going out of their way to do it. Part of me feels like the only reason Lewis doesn't have an extension signed is that Mike Brown doesn't want to hear all the negative press that comes with doing it now. Lewis will stay until he retires, which could come sooner than later.
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tom cody


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marvin Lewis will be fired one of these years, this yr.'s as good as any.
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johndeere1707


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tom cody wrote:
Marvin Lewis will be fired one of these years, this yr.'s as good as any.


Lewis will never be fired. He will either retire or his contract will run up. Semantics I know...
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LLcheesehead12


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's just that the knock on Lewis is that he produces winning seasons but never wins in the playoffs. But start taking away the winning seasons out of that equation and ... be it firing or a mutual parting of the ways, changes will be coming to Cincy.
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ChazStandard wrote:
Not completely impossible that McCarthy comes under some pressure if GB suffer another play-off disappointment. Several one-and-dones and no SB appearance in 7 years with one of the best QBs of all time.

Add in that, in several of those PO losses, he has thoroughly out coached, and you can imagine GB getting impatient.

I'm not saying he's top of the list, but it's possible.


Yes, it is disappointing not to have made a SB appearance in 7 years but I would be very surprised if McCarthy got canned unless we don't make the playoffs for a couple of years in a row. It takes more than an elite QB to win multiple SBs - football is the ultimate team sport. Only 12 QBs have more than one ring since the start of the SB era. What NE is doing presently is historic and I doubt another franchise will ever match their success they've enjoyed these past 16 years.
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jason Garrett
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jason_Bengal_Fl wrote:
A losing record won't be enough to fire Marvin Lewis. He and Mike Brown have a very good working relationship and Mike trusts him. For Marvin to get fired would take:

The team visibly quits on him. Not just has a losing record, but truly quits on him.

He betrays Mike in some way. Mike Brown is very loyal and places a high value on loyalty.


Rather than fired he could get bumped up to GM. He has done a better job at that then Brown.
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