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Mike Glennon 2017 Expectations

 
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the lone star


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PostPosted: Mon May 29, 2017 2:01 am    Post subject: Mike Glennon 2017 Expectations Reply with quote

Scouting Glennon early for fantasy season. What do you all expect from him this year? Will he keep the starting job all year long? What do you think his final statline will be? Will he be able to get 25+ TDs?
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Sugashane


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PostPosted: Mon May 29, 2017 3:50 am    Post subject: Re: Mike Glennon 2017 Expectations Reply with quote

the lone star wrote:
Scouting Glennon early for fantasy season. What do you all expect from him this year? Will he keep the starting job all year long? What do you think his final statline will be? Will he be able to get 25+ TDs?


Hard to say. Loggains (OC) wasn't afraid to throw the ball about 40 times a game with Matt Barkley, even when Howard was ripping up defenses on the ground. So he may get a ton of opportunities that add up yards, but I still highly doubt he gets 25 TDs.

We have mediocre OTs to protect him and a WR corps that is completely unknown due to the loss of Jeffrey, injury prone players, youth etc. Miller is injury prone as a receiving TE and Shaheen will have physical advantages over players but is making a big jump. Sims is meh regardless.

Overall if Glennon can complete enough 3rd downs to get us to the endzone, I think Howard is the one getting the chance to drive the TD in. He will undoubtedly be the primary focus of the DC's though, and I just don't think Glennon consistently gets into the redzone enough to sniff 25TDs. I' personally feeling like a 20TD/17 INT season is more realistic if he lasts all 16 games.
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IronMike84


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PostPosted: Mon May 29, 2017 10:11 am    Post subject: Re: Mike Glennon 2017 Expectations Reply with quote

the lone star wrote:
Scouting Glennon early for fantasy season. What do you all expect from him this year? Will he keep the starting job all year long? What do you think his final statline will be? Will he be able to get 25+ TDs?

In Bears parlance, my expectations for Glennon are about the same as Kyle Orton: we will be lucky to get one passing TD per game out of him, hopefully he limits turnovers, and he will do a lot of handing off.

I wouldn't use a fantasy draft pick on Glennon. He'll be out on the waiver wire.
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Tyty


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PostPosted: Mon May 29, 2017 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3800 yds 22 tds 16 int
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bearsfan323


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PostPosted: Mon May 29, 2017 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tyty wrote:
3800 yds 22 tds 16 int

Sounds about right
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the lone star


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 03, 2017 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bearsfan323 wrote:
Tyty wrote:
3800 yds 22 tds 16 int

Sounds about right


I could see that.
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IronMike84


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In 18 starts, he has 29 TDs and 15 INTs. That averages to 1.6 TDs and .83 INTs per start. So I think low 20s for TDs and mid teens for INTs sounds right.

For the most part, NFL players are who they are. Unless we see otherwise, Glennon is the same guy he was in 2013.

ESPN's projections (take them for what they're worth) has Glennon as QB29. Guys in his vicinity are Alex Smith, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff before, and Cody Kessler, Trevor Simian, Josh McCown after. I'd say that's pretty accurate.

There's no reason to draft Glennon in fantasy drafts, and anybody who picks him up off of the waiver wire would have to be dealing with some serious injury issues.
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ForteOz


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I expect him to defy the laws of physics as he both sucks and blows.
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G08


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ForteOz wrote:
I expect him to defy the laws of physics as he both sucks and blows.


Ha!
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

3400 yards, 24 TDs, 15 INTs, 61% completion

Benched week 16 to make way for the franchise
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DABEARSLCF04


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IronMike84 wrote:
In 18 starts, he has 29 TDs and 15 INTs. That averages to 1.6 TDs and .83 INTs per start. So I think low 20s for TDs and mid teens for INTs sounds right.

For the most part, NFL players are who they are. Unless we see otherwise, Glennon is the same guy he was in 2013.

ESPN's projections (take them for what they're worth) has Glennon as QB29. Guys in his vicinity are Alex Smith, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff before, and Cody Kessler, Trevor Simian, Josh McCown after. I'd say that's pretty accurate.

There's no reason to draft Glennon in fantasy drafts, and anybody who picks him up off of the waiver wire would have to be dealing with some serious injury issues.


Hey... fizpatric hit 30 TDs 2 years back and everyone thought they knew what he was as a 3000 yard 18 td journeyman of a guy. Never know. Be it one year or a hot 2 years. I am just relieved it's not the dumpster fire it has been the Las few years.... well here's to hoping
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51to54


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We'll have to be lucky to even get Fitz level of production from him.

2013 59.4 pct 200 ypg 4.6 pct TD, 2.2 pct Int sk pct 8.8
(19 td 9 int 40 sacks 13 starts )
2014 57.6 pct 236 ypg 4.9 pct TD, 3.0 pct Int sk pct 7.3
(10 td 6 int 16 sacks 5 starts )
2016 11 passes

He didn't just get benched in 2015 after the team drafted Winston.
He got benched in 2014 after the team acquired, drum roll, Josh McNown and Derek Anderson started the first game in 2014.

When you can't beat out McNown or even Anderson (was Glennon hurt at the start of 2014?) then I'm guessing if Trubisky isn't starting by mid-season it will be more due to Trubisky not being ready than due to Glennon being too good.

His career stats would put him for 2016 about....
28th completion pct
13th td pct
20th int pct
28th sack pct

The one big thing in his favor is that his numbers were all with a horrible Tampa Bay team so he might greatly improve playing for a not horrible Bears' team.
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Chewtoy


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

51to54 wrote:
We'll have to be lucky to even get Fitz level of production from him.

2013 59.4 pct 200 ypg 4.6 pct TD, 2.2 pct Int sk pct 8.8
(19 td 9 int 40 sacks 13 starts )
2014 57.6 pct 236 ypg 4.9 pct TD, 3.0 pct Int sk pct 7.3
(10 td 6 int 16 sacks 5 starts )
2016 11 passes

He didn't just get benched in 2015 after the team drafted Winston.
He got benched in 2014 after the team acquired, drum roll, Josh McNown and Derek Anderson started the first game in 2014.

When you can't beat out McNown or even Anderson (was Glennon hurt at the start of 2014?) then I'm guessing if Trubisky isn't starting by mid-season it will be more due to Trubisky not being ready than due to Glennon being too good.

His career stats would put him for 2016 about....
28th completion pct
13th td pct
20th int pct
28th sack pct

The one big thing in his favor is that his numbers were all with a horrible Tampa Bay team so he might greatly improve playing for a not horrible Bears' team.


200 yards per game as a rookie/soph is hardly a death sentence. Drew Brees posted between 191 and 223 ypg for his first FOUR years in the league. His first three years he averaged ~3.5% TD rate and 3.4% INT%, both worse than Glennon.

And Brees is far from the only Qb to develop dramatically after his first couple of years. Tom Brady's first FIVE years he averaged between 190 and 230 yards per game with ~4.5 TD % and ~2.5 INT %. Being Mediocre as a first or second year Qb is normal, even for greats.

Now, Far more of the guys who put up Glennon's rookie numbers end up being Rick Mirer than Drew Brees. So I'm not ready to send him to the hall of fame or anything. But lets not get ahead of ourselves, either. Glennon's rookie numbers were not preposterous or even poor for a rookie qb. If they were Trubisky's numbers this year, I would be mildly disappointed, but not ready to move on.

I think the important thing to remember is that the media outrage was not that Chicago signed Glennon or that they planned on giving him a chance to start. The outrage was over "all that money". They didn't like the commitment of a lot of cap resources to an unproven commodity. How that has morphed into a "Mike Glennon is a terrible Qb" conversation, I'm not sure. He MIGHT be a terrible Qb, but he also might be perfectly adequate, and he hasn't conclusively proven he isn't more than that.
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Selkiesxx


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At this point to say you know either way would be premature. Quite frankly, no one knows if he has developed or progressed in any way -- at least not on these message boards.

We can speculate but that's all it is right now... speculation.
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51to54


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chewtoy wrote:
51to54 wrote:
We'll have to be lucky to even get Fitz level of production from him.

2013 59.4 pct 200 ypg 4.6 pct TD, 2.2 pct Int sk pct 8.8
(19 td 9 int 40 sacks 13 starts )
2014 57.6 pct 236 ypg 4.9 pct TD, 3.0 pct Int sk pct 7.3
(10 td 6 int 16 sacks 5 starts )
2016 11 passes

He didn't just get benched in 2015 after the team drafted Winston.
He got benched in 2014 after the team acquired, drum roll, Josh McNown and Derek Anderson started the first game in 2014.

When you can't beat out McNown or even Anderson (was Glennon hurt at the start of 2014?) then I'm guessing if Trubisky isn't starting by mid-season it will be more due to Trubisky not being ready than due to Glennon being too good.

His career stats would put him for 2016 about....
28th completion pct
13th td pct
20th int pct
28th sack pct

The one big thing in his favor is that his numbers were all with a horrible Tampa Bay team so he might greatly improve playing for a not horrible Bears' team.


200 yards per game as a rookie/soph is hardly a death sentence. Drew Brees posted between 191 and 223 ypg for his first FOUR years in the league. His first three years he averaged ~3.5% TD rate and 3.4% INT%, both worse than Glennon.

And Brees is far from the only Qb to develop dramatically after his first couple of years. Tom Brady's first FIVE years he averaged between 190 and 230 yards per game with ~4.5 TD % and ~2.5 INT %. Being Mediocre as a first or second year Qb is normal, even for greats.

Now, Far more of the guys who put up Glennon's rookie numbers end up being Rick Mirer than Drew Brees. So I'm not ready to send him to the hall of fame or anything. But lets not get ahead of ourselves, either. Glennon's rookie numbers were not preposterous or even poor for a rookie qb. If they were Trubisky's numbers this year, I would be mildly disappointed, but not ready to move on.

I think the important thing to remember is that the media outrage was not that Chicago signed Glennon or that they planned on giving him a chance to start. The outrage was over "all that money". They didn't like the commitment of a lot of cap resources to an unproven commodity. How that has morphed into a "Mike Glennon is a terrible Qb" conversation, I'm not sure. He MIGHT be a terrible Qb, but he also might be perfectly adequate, and he hasn't conclusively proven he isn't more than that.

Certainly we don't know how he will play in 2017, but his first two seasons were nothing remarkable. However, not remarkable for a horrible Tampa Bay team might be decent elsewhere. The more troubling aspect is that TB tried to replace him twice. First, with McNown and then moved on and drafted Winston.

Given this thread was about how'd he be as a Fantasy guy, I'd say given his lack of stellar stats and having sit for over a season and now playing for a team with a division II WR group that I'd give him a slim chance of being a dark horse FF producer.
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