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Jakuvious


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Posts: 15278
PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Malik wrote:
lancerman wrote:
The players proven, the draft pick isn't. Draft picks get overvalued way too much.


Absolutely this. I'll never understand why proven players are less valued by fans and front offices than the hope with draft picks.


One part money, one part time. Sometimes with a little bit of arrogance thrown in there.

The reality is though, if your team already has a reasonable amount of talent, odds are, it isn't as simple as just adding a proven player instead of a draft pick. The more thoroughly talented teams in the league (Seattle, KC, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, previously Baltimore, even Dallas is getting there now) all bleed free agents each year. Each team can only really afford so many second or third contract high quality players. So for that chunk of the league, acquiring an external proven player ultimately is just going to result in losing one of your own now, or down the road. KC signing Logan meant forfeiting Poe. For Dallas to keep their OL together they're rolling with a basically rookie secondary. Even for New England, you don't sign Gilmore and trade for Cooks without losing Collins, Bennett, and probably Butler down the road. And Cooks is still on his rookie deal, so that's a little rare in that regard. And all those trade offs carry risk. Perhaps not as high as the draft, but still.

On the flip side, if your team is really bad, you're not really in a rush to add talent then and there. You probably don't have a quality QB and you're probably not ready to compete, so what does adding a player who will be both expensive and declining when you are ready to compete, really do for you? Your draft picks are also higher and therefore harder to get just competition for.

So you have a relatively small window of teams where it's truly advantageous. You need to be talking about a team bad enough to have ample cap space, who doesn't need that cap space elsewhere in the near future, who feels they're good enough to compete with few additions. And you also need a team on the other side willing to offer a player. Players without flaws don't get traded in the NFL. It's either going to be someone expensive or with a specific scheme fit or an injury history or something. If you could get an established player on a small contract with no asterisks in a trade, heck yeah, do that. But it just doesn't happen that way.

There's just a lot that needs to happen for it to be worth it on both sides. And it almost never is. This isn't the NBA, where you have 5 guys on the court, a handful of teams visibly tanking and only a handful competing, and two guys moving teams changes the entire landscape of those teams and the league. The Browns could trade their next two entire drafts for established veterans, and still suck next year. Even the Chiefs or the Texans could do the same, and it still wouldn't net them a QB, so it wouldn't matter. I still remember when the Chiefs had 6 - 7 pro-bowlers and were winning 2 games. You need a complete roster, and trading picks for players will not get you there. It might get you a final piece or two, but it can't be a major component.
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lancerman


Joined: 06 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The thing is even if you're right in the draft, you could be wrong. Like it's a coin flip that the player you draft busts. But even in a situation like a few years ago when Clowney was far and away the safest pick, yeah it took him awhile, but he started to come into his own and live up to some of the hype. He's still not the best player at his position (probably top 5 which is good and about the best you could hope for in the draft). But he might not even be the 1st or 2nd best defensive player in that draft behind Donald and Mack. And if you could do it all over again, you'd be dumb not to take Carr.

And that's a situation where you could relatively say they made out well.

I'll go with the proven player and deal with the consequences. The draft is about building a solid young base and maximizing your talent by hitting in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds. Not about finding that one stud in the 1st. I have no problem trading a 1st for something where you know what you are getting. If it's top 5 it's a little different because unless you are reaching for a QB you'll probably make out with a strong player, but it's over valued by way too many GM's to just risk on a guy who may or may not be that impactful in the grand scheme of things.
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spilltray


Joined: 09 Jan 2006
Posts: 12045
Location: Green Bay, WI
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 9:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Proven" is one of the biggest jokes in the NFL. There are no guarantees and
"proven" isn't a thing. Fit and scheme and the surrounding pieces impact every single player. How many times has a "proven" vet disappointed as a FA or trade? More often than they live up to their billing. If it's a player on a new team, absolutely nothing is proven except the size of their contract.
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lancerman


Joined: 06 Feb 2011
Posts: 8594
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

spilltray wrote:
"Proven" is one of the biggest jokes in the NFL. There are no guarantees and
"proven" isn't a thing. Fit and scheme and the surrounding pieces impact every single player. How many times has a "proven" vet disappointed as a FA or trade? More often than they live up to their billing. If it's a player on a new team, absolutely nothing is proven except the size of their contract.


There's a key difference.

If a "proven" player in his prime goes to another team and doesn't live up to hype then it's likely the team's problem for not having the right players to help him succeed or a scheme fit issue. In both cases, it's not the players fault for the team acquiring him without the means to use him. He's still a good player. He's in a bad situation.

There's a lot of draft picks that just flat out are not going to make it in the NFL and it doesn't matter where you send them. The speed of the game is going to be just way too much for them and they aren't going to be able to improve enough for it to matter. The level they play at in college is just simply not enough to elevate them to where they need to be in the NFL and there is gaurantee they make the next step.

If you draft a player with a pick they might fail and there might not be a single thing you can do about it. If you trade a pick for a really good player, they might not fit in your system, but that's on your system, the player showed he can ball, it's up to you to get him the right situation. That's on the team.
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CP3MVP


Joined: 07 Feb 2012
Posts: 1800
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Draft picks bust at an alarming rate. It's not really uncommon for a teams entire draft to be out of the league in a matter of a few years
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TheRealMcCoy wrote:
CP3MVP wrote:
He went from top ten to not mentioned at all

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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
Posts: 3757
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you use this draft chart and approximate value and compare it to the approximate value of the players the Patriots acquired, they made out like Bandits. http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/

The Patriots traded #32 and #108 for Brandin Cooks and #118. The Patriots traded 17.6 points in AV. They will have Cooks under contract for 2 seasons, and Cooks AV was 11 in 2016. The #118 pick's AV is valued at 4.2 points. So if Cooks performs at the same level he has over the next two seasons, the Patriots acquired 8.6 extra AV points, or the equivalent of the 81st pick.

The Patriots traded the #64 pick, valued at 8.1 AV for Kony Ealy and the #72 pick. Ealy has had AV of 4 the last season. The #81 pick is valued at 7.4 AV. So if Ealy performs at the same level, the Patriots acquired 3.3 extra AV, or the equivalent of the 152nd pick.


For the Dwayne Allen trade, they sent #137 (4.2 AV) for Allen (4 AV in 2016) and #200 (1 AV). If he performs as well over the next 3 years they have him under contract, they acquired 8.8 extra AV, the equivalent of the 79th pick.

Mike Gillislee had an AV of 4 last year, and the expected AV of the 163rd pick's entire career is 2.2. Having him under contract for the next 2 years, you can project his AV will be ~8 over the life of the contract.


If you add it all up, the Patriots acquired Brandin Cooks, Kong Ealy, Dwayne Allen, and Mike Gillislee PLUS the equivalent of the 11th pick in the draft..
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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A couple missing pieces to take this analysis further are the AV of cap hits. And the potential compensatory picks that may be gained from Cooks/Ealy/Allen/Gillislee, or their continued performance with the Patriots.

Still, after reviewing that information, I'm more convinced than ever to trade draft capital for proven NFL players.
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FourThreeMafia


Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 63573
Location: East of Sixburgh
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

spilltray wrote:
"Proven" is one of the biggest jokes in the NFL. There are no guarantees and
"proven" isn't a thing. Fit and scheme and the surrounding pieces impact every single player. How many times has a "proven" vet disappointed as a FA or trade? More often than they live up to their billing. If it's a player on a new team, absolutely nothing is proven except the size of their contract.


There are numerous variables that can play a huge role in how much success a given player has in the NFL, but a guy who has PROVEN they can play in the NFL at all clearly has more value than a guy who has yet to show the same.

Now, Im not saying its smart to go trade high end draft picks for "proven" players, but if there is an opportunity to get a proven NFL player with a pick you dont feel you will be able to get you the same talent with otherwise, then it makes perfect sense.

So while being proven doesnt guarantee anything, its still a safer bet than a draft pick.
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MemphisEagles


Joined: 11 Nov 2014
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's too much of a case by case basis. Personally I lean towards keeping picks, but our best player for awhile now has been Jason Peters who we traded a first and I think a fourth for.
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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've heard the argument that these type of moves only work for contenders. Cooks is only 23 and turns 24 in September. Why couldn't the Browns or 49ers acquired him for their early 2nd round picks? He would still be a core player for them.
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Babylon


Joined: 16 Jan 2008
Posts: 1870
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CP3MVP wrote:
Draft picks bust at an alarming rate. It's not really uncommon for a teams entire draft to be out of the league in a matter of a few years


That's pretty true for free agents as well.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000329702/article/top-101-nfl-free-agents-for-2014

I ran through the guys they listed as difference maker and impact starters:

1 - Jairus Byrd - Total bust.
2- Eugene Monroe - Bust, Retired
3 - Michael Johnson - Cut after 1 year in Tampa, went back to the Bengals as an okay but not great player.
4 - Alex Mack - Still rocking
5 - Lamarr Houston - Went to the Bears in '15, bad injuries the last two seasons, probably done as an impact player.
6 - Jared Veldheer - Good player, missed half of last year with injuries.
7 - Branden Albert - Declining but still effective player.
8 - Alterraun Verner - Currently out of football
9 - Michael Bennett - Still rocking
10 - Aqib Talib - Still rocking
11 - TJ Ward - Still rocking
12 - Brent Grimes - Declining but fine.
13 - Vontae Davis- Still good
14 - Eric Decker - Spent most of last season injured, should be good if healthy
15 - Jason Worilds - Quit after '14.
16 - Jason Hatcher - Retired last year
17 - Henry Melton - Cut last year
18 - BJ Raji - Quit last year
19 - Everson Griffen - Still rocking
20 - Sam Shields - Retired from concussions
21 - LaMarr Woodley - Got injured and out of football in '15
22 - Randy Starks - Cut last year
23 - Hakeem Nicks - Cut last year
24 - Jermichael Finley - Retired in '15
25 - Linval Joseph - Still rocking

Lots and lots of guys who were out of football within 2 years. (some of the players were older to start with, but man, the Byrd / Monroe / Johnson contracts were so so bad for the Saints / Ravens / Buccaneers.
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iknowcool


Joined: 15 Apr 2009
Posts: 18056
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Malik wrote:
lancerman wrote:
The players proven, the draft pick isn't. Draft picks get overvalued way too much.


Absolutely this. I'll never understand why proven players are less valued by fans and front offices than the hope with draft picks.


For me, it isn't so much about the quality of the player I'm getting but the $$$. It is worth the risk settling for the unknown when you could potentially get them on a relatively cheap contract for 3-4 years.
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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
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Location: Florida
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iknowcool wrote:
Malik wrote:
lancerman wrote:
The players proven, the draft pick isn't. Draft picks get overvalued way too much.


Absolutely this. I'll never understand why proven players are less valued by fans and front offices than the hope with draft picks.


For me, it isn't so much about the quality of the player I'm getting but the $$$. It is worth the risk settling for the unknown when you could potentially get them on a relatively cheap contract for 3-4 years.


But when you acquire a veteran in a trade at least the salary is a fixed cost, and you don't have to overpay like you do in FA.
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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
Posts: 3757
Location: Florida
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't like Stills' extension but that has nothing to do with the analysis of the trade. The #78 pick has a career AV of 6.9

Stills had an AV of 9 his last two years, and at a cheaper cost than the #78 pick[/i]
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NFL_Announcer


Joined: 01 Apr 2010
Posts: 908
PostPosted: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In general, history shows it doesn't really work.

You're getting a player that has already aged and taken a lot of wear/tear on his body and there's generally a reason the other team didn't lock him up. Whether it's injury issues, salary demands, or a locker room issue, it doesn't really work.

Good teams are BUILT through solid drafts because you get a guy that's young and in his physical prime and SUPER cheap. Hitting on a player in the draft is IMO 10x more valuable than hitting on a FA trade.
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