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WAY TOO EARLY Final 53 Projections

 
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How many undrafted rookies will make the team?
Zero
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
One
33%
 33%  [ 1 ]
Two
33%
 33%  [ 1 ]
Three
33%
 33%  [ 1 ]
Four
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 3

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PAtexansFAN99


Joined: 04 Jan 2007
Posts: 4819
PostPosted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:36 pm    Post subject: WAY TOO EARLY Final 53 Projections Reply with quote

QB- Savage. Watson, Weeden
LT- Brown, Davenport
LG- Sua-Filo, Quessenberry
C-Martin, Mancz
RG-Allen, Slade
RT-Lamm, Clark
WR-Hopkins, Fuller, Miller, Strong, Williams
TE-Fiedorowicz, Griffin, Anderson
RB- Miller, Foreman, Blue, Ervin, Hunt
FB- Prosch

DE-Watt, Heath, Watkins
NT- Reader, Covington, Ankou
OLB- Clowney, Mercilus, Scarlett
ILB- Cushing, McKinney, Cunningham, Peters
CB- Johnson, Joseph, Jackson, Nelson, DeCoud
S- Hal, Moore, Drummond, Dillon, Pleasant

K- Novak
P- Lechler
LS- Weeks

Notable Cuts

Johnathan Grimes
Lonnie Ballentine
Ufomba Kamalu
Kyle Fuller
Breno Giacomini

Thoughts?
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Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 6544
Location: Austin, TX
PostPosted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1) Such a random roster order - really bothers me for some reason. I mean who the heck lists from QB - LT - LG instead of QB - HB - FB - WR - TE. There has to be some order in this universe, man.

2) Jonathan Grimes being cut would be notable since he's not on the roster as he was not resigned.

3) Quessenberry making the roster may make for a feel good story, but we're talking about a 6th rounder who hasn't played a down of NFL football in 4 years. Basically, he had a good camp in 2013 (which got attention because aside from bookends Hopkins & Griffin this entire class was horrific). He couldn't quite make the roster so was sent to the IR Resort with a "foot" injury, then the cancer showed up in 2014. Sure, we're all rooting for him to defy long odds, but if a guy who couldn't make the roster 4 years ago is good enough to make the 2017 roster, this line is in worse shape than we thought.

4) Kyle Fuller will not only make the roster, but will be pushing for a starting gig at C or RG by 2018. I suspect Mancz moves to RG making Fuller our #2 C behind Martin. Best late round pick since Newton.

5) I agree that Giacomini doesn't make the roster and is just insurance if Davenport is a Brennan Williams level bust. Texans track record with free agent OL has been horrific. Absurd that Tony Bergstrom burned a roster spot all season last year. Jeff Allen's salary gives him a longer leash and supposedly played hurt most of the season, but if that dude looks anything like the 2016 version, Rick needs to just admit the colossal mistake of letting Brandon Brooks walk after developing him into a borderline Pro Bowler. Mancz will push for his job regardless.

6) I think Jaelen Strong is firmly on the bubble. Dude has had enough chances and has done nothing with them other than a fluke hail mary and get himself arrested. Williams deserved to be on the roster last year and I'm betting another try-hard could push him off the roster since unlike Strong, they can contribute on special teams. Top contenders include Gray, Hardee, Hill, and McCarron (Wes Welker Jr) along with Dres Anderson.

7) 5 RBs aren't making this roster or any other. Hunt has been criminally underutilized the past two seasons as we've burned reps on plodders like Polk, Blue, Grimes (and Foster). Dude has averaged 5.6 & 5.5 ypa in seasons where our leading rushers got 3.8 & 4.0. Tyler Ervin looked like a rookie in all phases last year, but if O'Brien actually evolves this offense into something resembling the Pats, Ervin should get more of the James White/Dion Lewis receiver role. Blue's skillset is inferior and redundant with Foreman and offers nothing on ST's or 3rd down, so I'd be shocked/pissed if he made this team.

8 ) Your front 7 depth chart is pretty wonky as keeping only 3 DEs and 3 OLBs is crazy especially with Watt coming off injury and Clowney being a DE/LB hybrid at this point. I think Watkins is #2 NT with Covington as LDE when Clowney isn't there. I think Cunningham is going to see more time at OLB than ILB as a rookie in the 2015 Simon role. ILB Dylan Cole will make this roster.

9) We will either go with 2 QBs or sign a developmental project like Wes Lunt (who took more $ to sign with the Vikings as UDFA). Having a 33 year old #3 QB like Weeden simply doesn't make sense in today's NFL. #3 QB is always a gameday inactive, so you are burning $1.625 million in cap space and wasting a prized developmental slot (see Tony Romo). Don't forget, Savage is a FA at the end of the season, so we still need a backup QB for 2018 as it's doubtful Savage is resigned as a backup. Zach Conque might be an interesting option as he could make the roster as a TE, but also serve as an emergency QB.

10) My notable cut is Thomas Decoud. Just an absolutely terrible pick of the Louis Nix, Sam Montgomery, Travardo Williams, Alan Bonner level. We are so thin at CB & S, you would think he'd be a lock, but I'm telling you, this guy might not make the 75. Too slow physically and mentally and I suspect this will become real clear, real fast.

11) Watch out for Kurtis Drummond. Not sure where he will end up as he's not an in the box safety, but unlike the rest of the safeties on this roster aside from Hal, he's actually got coverage skills. Depending on how Robert Nelson develops, I think Drummond actually ends up getting starter level snaps with our SS's (Moore/Dilllon/Pleasant) only on the field in clear running situations now that presumably we have a LB who can cover (Cunningham) and if ILB Sio Moore makes the roster as ILB, he's a glorified safety as well. Malik Smith is squarely in the picture as well, so I think at least one of Moore/Dillon/Pleasant are sent packing if not 2. I don't see us carrying 10 DBs as one of those slots needs to go to DE/OLB.
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PAtexansFAN99


Joined: 04 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lol, sorry about the roster order, but if you think about it the HB/FB is usually behind the QB so shouldn't it start with HB? Er sumn like that lol? Moving on..

Didn't know Grimes wasn't on the team.

I admit I don't actually expect Ques to make the team, but I'm not ruling it out as a possibility. I don't think that it's impossible for him to have improved over the course of his treatment, and we certainly seem to want him to be a part of the team, and we could use an offensive lineman. I think he's probably got closer to a 50/50 shot than people think.

I know you're a Baylor guy, and I admittedly don't really know much about him. You can probably pencil him in there instead of Ques. And yea Giacomini, kind of seems like the Rahim Moore experiment a year or two ago. Someone you've heard of to play a position at which most of our players you haven't.

I don't think they'd cut Strong. Coaching staff seems to like him, and Deshaun Watson throws a smexy back-shoulder ball. I like Hopkins and Strong out there on the edges catching those.

I could see them cutting Blue, but someone will have to be a better special teamer to take that job from him I think, and I'm not sure that'd happen. I could see Dylan Cole maybe, but Blue's been real solid. By far the most competitive spot on the roster. I say that bc I feel like there's a relatively strong possibility the lead back job is up for grabs to whoever wants to take it. Like, Foreman, Ervin, Hunt, if any of them level up in Foster-like fashion, job's theirs.

Did seem a little light on DL but Clown and Merci line up with their hands down, are parts of a 3 man rush a lot so I feel like that flexibility will allow us to keep fewer defensive players than offensive ones.

Not a huge DeCoud fan either, but I think we keep 5 CBs. Was watching Dee Virgin highlights the other day, seems like he could be the Buoye/Nelson of this year's rookie class potentially. Roberson too. Insert whoever, 5 CBs prolly.

Been hearing good things about Drummond. I could see probably only 4 safeties you're probably right. Thanks for playing man. No football for 6 weeks now.. Crying or Very sad
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Pastor Dillon


Joined: 12 Jan 2007
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Location: Melbourne, Arkansas
PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am pretty sure we went into last season with 3 DEs and 2 NTs

mainly because in our nickle and dime packages, we move our DEs inside and our OLB go into the DE position, or at least we have that option. plus depth isnt as big a deal in the pros because those guys will play every snap.

injuries are the only concern, which we faced last year
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2016 DL Snaps
Clowney - 810 - 73%
Wilfork - 566 - 50.2%
Covington - 521 - 41.1%
Reader - 498 - 40%
Antonio Smith - 252 - 24%
Heath - 246 - 23%
Watt - 170 - 15%
Kamalu - 97 - 8.8%
Dunn - 45 - 4.4%
Still - 25 - 2.5%

Figure Reader bumps up to 60% this year with Watkins absorbing Reader's backup/rotation snaps as he's well suited for passing down role inside. Suspect Clowney plays far much more LB this year with JJ back and Covington/Heath combo absorbing most other DL snaps. Kamalu / Ankou / Dunn likely fight it out for final DL spot but not many snaps there without injury.

JJ played 96% of snaps in 2015, but I'd like to see us rotate him down to below 90% this year to try to preserve him a bit better. Crick played 75% at other DE spot in 2015 with Covington/Dunn absorbing most of the rotation snaps. Wilfork played about the same 53% in 2015 with essentially no backup, so the DEs moving to DT in passing situations was more straightforward with JJ as in 2016 Reader subbed in with Clowney moving out to LB.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2016 LB Snaps
McKinney - 915 - 90%
Mercilus - 869 - 86%
Cushing - 611 - 60%
Simon - 518 - 51%
Bullough - 241 - 24%
Scarlett - 113 - 11.2%
Dent - 100 - 9.9%
Peters - 13 - 1.3%

Pretty straightforward here. Clowney likely absorbs most of those Simon snaps, but I suspect it's going to be like a 2 LB snaps to 1 DE ratio as I don't see them returning him to full-time LB as he was so effective at DE last year even without Watt on the other side. Cunningham will take up some of those Simon snaps as well and likely pushes Cushing's snap count below 50%. I suspect Cole eventually becomes part of the rotation at OLB and absorbs the Bullough ILB snaps as well as his core special teams role. Scarlett's snap count likely gets a bump as well, but somebody needs to take on Dent's role as a core special teamer, so it will be interesting to see if it's Cunningham or Scarlett. Peters is likely safe as a core special teamer, but he only sees the field on defense with multiple in game injuries and Bill doesn't dress enough LBs. Shakeel Rashad could be in the mix, but most likely starts out on the PS.

Generally we carry 7 LBs + Clowney + Peters + 5 DL's. Kinda burned us last year with JJ injury and having to bring in 35 year old version of Antonio Smith to absorb snaps, but I still would rather see us have potential STs contributors like Cole/Rashaad at LB than some gameday inactive in DLs Kamalu/Ankou/Dunn.
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Pastor Dillon


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 11:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Blue might be the most "shocking" cut this pre season. I think Miller is our work horse, foreman will be our #2 and Ervin will step up and be that change of pace guy
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PAtexansFAN99


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 4:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It'd definitely be nice to see some of the Dent, Peters, Blue, and other core ST guys get unseated by offensive/defensive contributors.

I feel like Izzo's gonna get Cunningham playing some good ST, which will in turn help with some of the tackling issues I hope.

The more I think about it, why doesn't Strong play ST? He's probably in on the hands team but, I see what you're saying Apollo maybe his job goes to someone more versatile.

Who else? I feel like between Dillon, Ballentine, Drummond, Pleasant, Moore, and Hal wemay end up keeping 5 safeties simply because we may have 5 guys that are core ST guys AND reliable contributors on defense as well.

Gotta look at summore Dylan Cole. I saw a little bit and wasn't really blown away, but ppl seem to be pretty excited about him. We had Eddie Pleasant playing a sort of LB role for us a LOT last year so, we can definitely use some help in there.

Bullough's release is kind of frustrating bc it seemed like he was being groomed to play for a long time, and he was very good on ST.

If we're being honest, it seems unlikely that Savage/Watson (rookie version) will out-quarterback Brady/Berger to get to, and then win the Superbowl. I think if we're gonna do it, special teams is gonna have to be a pretty [inappropriate/removed] significant part of it. Hopefully Welker can get sumn goin with a couple of these returners.
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