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Josh Doctson 2017 Fantasy Outlook

 
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the lone star


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PostPosted: Sun May 28, 2017 7:11 pm    Post subject: Josh Doctson 2017 Fantasy Outlook Reply with quote

Someone is offering me Doctson as a center-piece of a trade deal for the third overall pick in this year's rookie draft. He's willing to part with other starters and prospects as well, but I just wanted to know what you all think Doctson's value is this year?

What do you think his final statline will be?

Also, if he were in the 2017 NFL draft, which RBs and WRs would you have taken ahead of him?
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CentralFC


Joined: 03 Feb 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Would need more details. Who would you receive in return besides the 1.03? What else would you give up?

Doctson could be a high ceiling guy but his floor is lower than the others from his class. The Washington situation scares me off a bit. Cousins' is a long-term question mark. Pryor, Reed and Crowder will almost certainly get a high % of targets.

Doctson could squeeze himself into a role but I see it as a limited no. 2. He reminds me of where Adams was expected to be in 2015.

Something like 62-860-7 would be a realistic expectation in 2017, not terribly far off from Michael Thomas' numbers as a rookie (14-15 games). Beyond 2017, really difficult to gauge. You need to see him in live action.
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Somebody take the off season shovel out of Ted's hands & bury him in his own hole.

How can he dig a hole if he's too busy sitting on his hands?
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doctson's dynasty value straight up has to be around 1.06-1.07.

FWIW, I know that I'd rather have Doctson than the 1.06 in 2017.

Central is right though, we need to hear what else he's willing to include in the deal before anyone can give you a solid answer.
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the lone star


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
Doctson's dynasty value straight up has to be around 1.06-1.07.

FWIW, I know that I'd rather have Doctson than the 1.06 in 2017.

Central is right though, we need to hear what else he's willing to include in the deal before anyone can give you a solid answer.


The deal would now be centered around Doctson, Duke Johnson, Vince Williams, Siemian, and his 6th round pick in 2018. He would also throw in some FABB / Dynasty Dollars.

I'd be giving up 1.03, Su'a Cravens, and my third round pick in 2018. I might have to throw in some additional low round picks in the 2017 rookie draft (6th - 8th round), which are just dart throws.

I'm just worried about Mixon or McCaffrey turning into true 3 down RBs in the mold of Le'Veon, Zeke, or David Johnson. Pretty sure Fournette won't be there at 1.03.

Also, I kinda need the money to match auction bids on my restricted free agents, such as Dareus and Tavon Wilson (pretty solid point getter at DB for me last year).

All things considered, If that's the offer, then I think I might take it. What do you all think?
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the lone star


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 11:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's what my team currently looks like

Winston
Wentz

Bilal Powell
Adrian Peterson
LeGarrette Blount
Darren Sproles
Jalen Richard
Matt Jones

Larry Fitzgerald
Hurns
Cam Meredith
Kevin White
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
Torrey Smith

Hunter Henry
Delanie Walker
Kyle Rudolph

Gostkowski
Crosby

Fletcher Cox
Cam Jordan
Kawann Short
Marcel Dareus (only if I can match the auction bid on him right now)
Yannick Ngakoue

Navorro Bowman
Derrick Johnson
Lawrence Timmons
Markus Golden
Dont'a Hightower
Sean Spence
Dannell Ellerbe

Kam Chancellor
Su'a Cravens
Tavon Wilson (only if I can match the auction bid on him right now)
Quintin Demps
JJ Wilcox
Jeff Heath
Damarious Randall
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HTTRG3Dynasty


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Word is that the Redskins will be starting Pryor and Crowder in 2 WR sets, and bringing Doctson in for 3 WR sets. That definitely puts a limit on his value.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
Word is that the Redskins will be starting Pryor and Crowder in 2 WR sets, and bringing Doctson in for 3 WR sets. That definitely puts a limit on his value.


He's the Z. How did Garcon play last year?

The Redskins also ran the 6th highest percentage of 3 WR sets in the NFL last season.
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The LBC


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
Word is that the Redskins will be starting Pryor and Crowder in 2 WR sets, and bringing Doctson in for 3 WR sets. That definitely puts a limit on his value.

This is true, but consider how low the percentage of their plays were two WR sets versus three WR sets last season - it wasn't negligible but it was something like < 25% of their passing plays featured 2-or-less WR's.

The bigger constant cap that, for me, sits on Doctson are Pryor (who by everything I've read is going to be deployed in the DeSean role) and Reed (who is going to be Cousins' top target as long as he's healthy and on the field). You're basically looking at a fantasy situation similar to where the Chargers were about 5-7 years ago, where the TE is the leading receiver and you're hoping Doctson goes Vincent Jackson but that may not really be his role in the scheme and instead he's the Malcom Floyd/Chris Chambers, which can still be productive but higher than WR3 will he not be barring injuries elevating his status.
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HTTRG3Dynasty


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cadmus wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
Word is that the Redskins will be starting Pryor and Crowder in 2 WR sets, and bringing Doctson in for 3 WR sets. That definitely puts a limit on his value.


He's the Z. How did Garcon play last year?

The Redskins also ran the 6th highest percentage of 3 WR sets in the NFL last season.


Garcon played in 2 WR sets Laughing
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HTTRG3Dynasty


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The LBC wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
Word is that the Redskins will be starting Pryor and Crowder in 2 WR sets, and bringing Doctson in for 3 WR sets. That definitely puts a limit on his value.

This is true, but consider how low the percentage of their plays were two WR sets versus three WR sets last season - it wasn't negligible but it was something like < 25% of their passing plays featured 2-or-less WR's.

The bigger constant cap that, for me, sits on Doctson are Pryor (who by everything I've read is going to be deployed in the DeSean role) and Reed (who is going to be Cousins' top target as long as he's healthy and on the field). You're basically looking at a fantasy situation similar to where the Chargers were about 5-7 years ago, where the TE is the leading receiver and you're hoping Doctson goes Vincent Jackson but that may not really be his role in the scheme and instead he's the Malcom Floyd/Chris Chambers, which can still be productive but higher than WR3 will he not be barring injuries elevating his status.


Gruden has shown that he is more willing to run the ball than McVay was, which will lead to more 2 WR sets. And that's been a heavy emphasis this offseason. Hence, using our 4th round pick on Perine.

Look, I obviously hope Doctson explodes onto the scene as a bonafide star, but I would just temper my expectations this season. Gruden and staff really like Crowder and think he can be a very good #2 WR. They also trust a good amount of receiving options ahead of him to not screw things up more than they seem to trust him: Reed, Davis, Crowder, Pryor, and for some weird reason - Ryan Grant (who is seeing snaps ahead of Doctson on the 1st team so far this offseason, and who Gruden is always raving about). I would guess with the combination of his injury history, his inexperience, and the guys ahead of him, we will ease him in slowly throughout the season.
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