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Who would you rather have Derek Carr or Jameis Winston?
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Pick QB To Start a franchise
Jameis Winston
14%
 14%  [ 14 ]
Derek Carr
85%
 85%  [ 82 ]
Total Votes : 96

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brseahawks


Joined: 18 Mar 2015
Posts: 834
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrOaktown_56 wrote:


This throw could only have gone in a tiny window and still been a touchdown. And it travelled over 40 yards in the air. One of the best throws of 2015. His throw against vontae davis in the colts game to drop a 40 yard throw in the bucket was even better this year. But hey, "amchair analysis" right?

I've seen enough here.


That pass pro, though.
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raiderrocker18


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

part of that is design... they have him drop back that far because they know he has the arm to compensate. 95 woulda been right up his grill if it was a standard drop
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Nzd07


Joined: 13 Nov 2010
Posts: 4005
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrOaktown_56 wrote:
bucsfan333 wrote:
Jameis does force throws from time to time and he has had some stinkers. But of his 18 INTs last season, three were desperation Hail Marys with no time left in the game, four were tipped off the receiver's hands, and one was miscommunication with VJax. So his INTs are a bit inflated from what he actually should have thrown.


I absolutely agree with you. I'm not trashing Jameis here. Just trying to poke holes in this guy's nonsensical argument.


You weren't even understanding what I was saying. I already said Carr is better thus far, but I also think Jameis is a bit underrated by many who don't understand the context of his situation. The Bucs had no business throwing it deep as often as they did last year. Way too many seven step drops... basically the Norv Turner effect that I saw first hand as a Vikings fan. Now that you add DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard in there, though, everything is going to change. They have the proper personnel and I am confident Jameis will be viewed in the 8-12 range which is where I think Carr is right now.

As for the efficiency, yes Carr is more efficient. He takes what the defense gives him and takes very calculated risks. That's what efficient quarterback play is. He hasn't had a high amount of air yards his entire career so your "respect" argument kind of gets thrown out the window. So yes, efficiency is the reason Carr is better. I would agree that Carr's deep ball placement is better, too. Sure. But arm talent isn't the great seperater between the two thus far. IMO, it's decision making and personnel. Let's not act like this guy is making wine out of water here, he's got two studs on the outside and elite pass protection.

And that Carr GIF was impressive, but let's also examine that there wasn't a defender even close to him the entire time. He had time to set his feet and wait for the receiver to get some separation. Ball placement was exceptional, but degree of difficulty was not.
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Nzd07


Joined: 13 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrOaktown_56 wrote:



Carr had the 3rd lowest percentage of deep throws (over 20 yards), but the 8th most yards on passes over 20 yards. His deep ball completion percentage of 59.3% is almost the same as winston's 60.8 completion percentage.


Also, your numbers are way off. I'm pretty sure if Carr had a 60% deep ball completion percentage that'd be the highest in NFL history by a good margin.
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bucsfan333


Joined: 15 Jun 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nzd07 wrote:
MrOaktown_56 wrote:



Carr had the 3rd lowest percentage of deep throws (over 20 yards), but the 8th most yards on passes over 20 yards. His deep ball completion percentage of 59.3% is almost the same as winston's 60.8 completion percentage.


Also, your numbers are way off. I'm pretty sure if Carr had a 60% deep ball completion percentage that'd be the highest in NFL history by a good margin.

Quote:
Last season, Jameis Winston completed 22 of 69 deep passes for 646 yards, 11 touchdowns and six interceptions.
Quote:
[Derek Carr] completed 26 of 56 deep balls for 858 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions in 2016 despite missing the final regular-season game with a broken leg.
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MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
Posts: 8099
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nzd07 wrote:
He hasn't had a high amount of air yards his entire career so your "respect" argument kind of gets thrown out the window.


Who's the one not understanding context? Carr had the worst deep ball in the NFL his rookie year statistically. It has improved dramatically and as a result, defenses respect his arm a lot more. I explained this when I broke down the Raiders vs Colts game so clearly either you don't watch enough of the Raiders, or you blatantly disregarded my analysis, or just choose to ignore what's right in front of you.

I'm looking at last year, as it's most representative of how he's playing right now. He has that luxury of checking down underneath because defenses know how much he can hurt them deep. Jameis simply isn't as good at hitting the home run so until he is, he likely won't have that luxury.

Nzd07 wrote:


Carr had a better deep ball completion rate, but Winston also had FAR more air yards last year.


And guess what: guess who lost the most air yards in the NFL to drops last year? Derek Carr.

Nzd07 wrote:
So yes, efficiency is the reason Carr is better. I would agree that Carr's deep ball placement is better, too.


Good so we can agree that by "efficiency, you mean that Carr makes better decisions with the football. Chiefs fan here:



Jakuvious wrote:
In a relative sense, accounting for all of those things for Jameis and every other QB in the NFL, he's still going to have a higher INT total than the vast majority of QBs.


Which you're clearly downplaying the importance of and how hard it is to fix. And good, you agree that his deep ball is significantly better at this point.

Nzd07 wrote:
Sure. But arm talent isn't the great separator between the two thus far.


You're right. It's better decision making, clutchness, and accuracy. Arm talent is just another place Carr is better.

Nzd07 wrote:
And that Carr GIF was impressive, but let's also examine that there wasn't a defender even close to him the entire time. He had time to set his feet and wait for the receiver to get some separation. Ball placement was exceptional, but degree of difficulty was not.


The degree of difficulty was exceptional. Having good protection doesn't make the throw itself any less impressive. I can't think of many qb's who could make that throw with their feet set. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Rothelisberger come to mind.


MrOaktown_56 wrote:


You weren't even understanding what I was saying. I already said Carr is better thus far, but I also think Jameis is a bit underrated by many who don't understand the context of his situation.


Oh really? I understood the context just fine.

Nzd07 wrote:



So yeah, Carr just isn't what you Raiders fans hype him up to be, given what he has around him. The fact that people actually think this dude is better than Wilson/Luck is just absurd. He's closer to Cousins and Stafford than he is those two.



So Carr can't even be compared to Luck or Wilson? Carr played like a top 5 quarterback last year.

His quick release and measured ability to avoid sacks helps his OL. Crabtree literally was a castoff until Carr revived his career. Crabtree might have great hands, but Carr is elite when it comes to throwing fades and has ridiculous ball placement on a lot of his throws, which fits with crabtree's skillset.

Jameis wouldn't put up similar numbers with Cooper and Crabtree. Carr has talent to work with, but he absolutely maximizes it.

Nzd07 wrote:
MrOaktown_56 wrote:


Carr had the 3rd lowest percentage of deep throws (over 20 yards), but the 8th most yards on passes over 20 yards. His deep ball completion percentage of 59.3% is almost the same as winston's 60.8 completion percentage.


Also, your numbers are way off. I'm pretty sure if Carr had a 60% deep ball completion percentage that'd be the highest in NFL history by a good margin.


It's PFF's adjusted completion percentage, I didn't see that. I think it's close to 50%.

Basically, it adjusts for a lot of drops by our receivers (who you laud considerably because they obviously have no weaknesses) downfield.

Adjusted Completion Percentage = (Completions + Drops) / (Pass Attempts Spikes Throwaways Batted Balls Balls disrupted by a QB hit).

Still, point stands that he blow Jameis out of the water in that regard. Like not even close.


Even if Jameis has a better statistical output next year, that inherently won't make him a better qb than Carr. Maybe he might end up in the 4-12 range, but Carr absolutely can make another jump to the 4-6 range next year, as he was firmly in that conversation based on last year's play alone.

Clearly, people here acknowledge the importance of taking care of the ball, being clutch, accuracy, arm talent etc. etc.

Hence:

thebestever6 wrote:


Carr all day.


FourThreeMafia wrote:

I wont deny that guys like Jameis and Mariota could very well be in the top 5, I wont be INCREDIBLY shocked if neither are top 10 either.


thebestever6 wrote:
In the grand scheme of things I'd lean towards Carr.


Jakuvious wrote:
Your great QBs (Rodgers, Brady) and your great QB seasons (last year's Ryan, Carr, two years ago Newton, etc.)


RedRider wrote:


Oh, and this is Carr by a wide margin. Winston is good, though.


MWil23 wrote:

Carr by a landslide, it's not even close.


Jakuvious wrote:
I hate it when people say it's not even close.

But it's Carr, and it's not even close.

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Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck
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bucsfan333


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The biggest difference is that Carr has had one more year starting and has made the jump from just a guy to one of the better QBs in the league. Things will be a lot closer if Jameis can make that same jump.

But Carr is the easy choice right now because he's already proven.
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MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
Posts: 8099
PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucsfan333 wrote:
The biggest difference is that Carr has had one more year starting and has made the jump from just a guy to one of the better QBs in the league. Things will be a lot closer if Jameis can make that same jump.

But Carr is the easy choice right now because he's already proven.


The crazy thing about carr is that as a rookie, I didn't know if he had a future as a starter in the league. As a 2nd year player, I didn't know if he would ever take a step forward, or be a perennial avg/slightly above avg qb. As a 3rd year player, he played his way into borderline MVP status.

That jump is not easy to make. I never imagined he'd make the first jump, let alone the 2nd.
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Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck
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Nzd07


Joined: 13 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucsfan333 wrote:
The biggest difference is that Carr has had one more year starting and has made the jump from just a guy to one of the better QBs in the league. Things will be a lot closer if Jameis can make that same jump.

But Carr is the easy choice right now because he's already proven.


100% agree. And Oak, you're still not getting my argument.

Again, you're too quick to put the inefficiency all on Jameis. That's my point here. Koetter is a guy who likes to throw it deep. Seven step drops and let it fly. That's his philosophy. And guess what happens when you have that philosophy and have only one skill player who can consistently create separation downfield? Couple that with a below average offensive line, to boot. The results aren't going to be very good. Even Rodgers was struggling early last year when the receivers couldn't get separation.

Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate were next in line for targets after Evans. Who the hell are those guys going to scare. The Bucs were also bottom 10 in rushing yards per game. Martin had a rough year and got hurt, Sims was hurt, and Jacquizz Rodgers is mediocre. The Raiders RB core wasn't anything special, either, but they were still getting it done on a per touch basis.

I mean really, do you honestly believe that the personnel has nothing to do with the difference in numbers and perceived play between the two? I already admitted that Jameis needs to work on the deep ball accuracy, but I also think if you replace Adam Humphries with DeSean Jackson last season, the perceived issue wouldn't be as big of a deal as it's made out to be. Receivers can make QBs look better on the stat sheet and vice versa.

If Carr "made" Crabtree then how did Crabs have 1,100 yards and 9 Tds with Colin Kaepernick throwing him the ball. That was actually the most efficient season of his career. Kaep>Carr confirmed Wink

Having Crabtree also meant that Seth Roberts didn't have to see the field much, which was a win for Carr in it's own right.

As for the drops, at least they were getting separation. Jameis was having to force it to Evans because nobody was open. It's no coincidence that Evans' targets skyrocketed once V-Jax finally broke down. Cooper, on the other hand, had far less drops this season. So the trade off was about even from 2015, I'd wager.

Once again just so you can see this: I agree Carr has been the better player up until 2016. But Jameis is in position to have a breakout year, so I'd say for those who think it's Carr and "not close," let's just wait and see. As NFL fans we all know how fast things can change.
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MrOaktown_56


Joined: 15 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nzd07 wrote:
bucsfan333 wrote:
The biggest difference is that Carr has had one more year starting and has made the jump from just a guy to one of the better QBs in the league. Things will be a lot closer if Jameis can make that same jump.

But Carr is the easy choice right now because he's already proven.


100% agree. And Oak, you're still not getting my argument.

Again, you're too quick to put the inefficiency all on Jameis. That's my point here. Koetter is a guy who likes to throw it deep. Seven step drops and let it fly. That's his philosophy. And guess what happens when you have that philosophy and have only one skill player who can consistently create separation downfield? Couple that with a below average offensive line, to boot. The results aren't going to be very good. Even Rodgers was struggling early last year when the receivers couldn't get separation.

Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate were next in line for targets after Evans. Who the hell are those guys going to scare. The Bucs were also bottom 10 in rushing yards per game. Martin had a rough year and got hurt, Sims was hurt, and Jacquizz Rodgers is mediocre. The Raiders RB core wasn't anything special, either, but they were still getting it done on a per touch basis.

I mean really, do you honestly believe that the personnel has nothing to do with the difference in numbers and perceived play between the two? I already admitted that Jameis needs to work on the deep ball accuracy, but I also think if you replace Adam Humphries with DeSean Jackson last season, the perceived issue wouldn't be as big of a deal as it's made out to be. Receivers can make QBs look better on the stat sheet and vice versa.

If Carr "made" Crabtree then how did Crabs have 1,100 yards and 9 Tds with Colin Kaepernick throwing him the ball. That was actually the most efficient season of his career. Kaep>Carr confirmed Wink

Having Crabtree also meant that Seth Roberts didn't have to see the field much, which was a win for Carr in it's own right.

As for the drops, at least they were getting separation. Jameis was having to force it to Evans because nobody was open. It's no coincidence that Evans' targets skyrocketed once V-Jax finally broke down. Cooper, on the other hand, had far less drops this season. So the trade off was about even from 2015, I'd wager.

Once again just so you can see this: I agree Carr has been the better player up until 2016. But Jameis is in position to have a breakout year, so I'd say for those who think it's Carr and "not close," let's just wait and see. As NFL fans we all know how fast things can change.


This is exactly what you're missing in what I'm trying to say.

He might have a better stat sheet next year, but that's not why people in here prefer Carr comfortably. Its a lot of other things that aren't easy to learn/get better at. Trust me, I didn't think that Carr would make a leap the way he did this year. Winston is probably right now as good as Carr was last year, when Carr had a bottom 5 rush attack and the OL wasn't as good. But Carr didnt make the leap because the run game improved, or his stat sheet improved. He improved in all the areas I mentioned that don't explicitly show up on the stat sheet, resulting in a huge jump in his level of play. If Winston can make a colossal jump like that, I'll be happy to consider him in the same tier. But to act like thats a plausible jump to make is a bit of a stretch.
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Danand wrote:
Carr is 22-25,no playoff games, I'd take Flacco over him.To me it seems like Flacco is just where he belongs. Behind the Brady, Roethlisberger,Rivers,Rodgers,Wilson and ahead of Carr,Tannehill,Cousins,Palmer,Dalton,Luck
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