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Counselor


Joined: 31 Jan 2017
Posts: 2075
PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like what Mike wants. To keep the team as is and build from there. Like we do with the mocks. This is the way to see who can really build a contender and who can really scout players. Who can flip around the bottom teams and so on.
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In reference to concern about Joshua Dobbs' Knees

48 1/2ers wrote:
Ostriches have inverted knees and they're pretty athletic...


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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6615
Location: America
PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2017 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Still a long ways to go before I have the statistical sim set up to project wins and loses, but I need to know that you guys are gonna be ok with this process before moving forward.

Take a minute a view the link below, and let me know if you believe that this would work.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nQjxp5LTM59PtNOdnPoCa6kTU6sKYVxZaaNnIULkfxY/edit?usp=sharing

The sheet "Grouped Projections" will give you a better look at the numbers, but with the current formulas as they are I'm getting the following results.

    Total Games Played 267
    Total Projected Correctly 201
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 75.3%

    Greater than or Equal to Avg. STD 113
    Total Projected Correctly 94
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 83.2%

    Less than or Equal to Avg. STD 154
    Total Projected Correctly 107
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 69.5%

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EaglesPeteC


Joined: 05 Feb 2008
Posts: 6190
Location: Raleigh, NC
PostPosted: Sat May 06, 2017 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ny92jefferis wrote:
Still a long ways to go before I have the statistical sim set up to project wins and loses, but I need to know that you guys are gonna be ok with this process before moving forward.

Take a minute a view the link below, and let me know if you believe that this would work.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nQjxp5LTM59PtNOdnPoCa6kTU6sKYVxZaaNnIULkfxY/edit?usp=sharing

The sheet "Grouped Projections" will give you a better look at the numbers, but with the current formulas as they are I'm getting the following results.

    Total Games Played 267
    Total Projected Correctly 201
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 75.3%

    Greater than or Equal to Avg. STD 113
    Total Projected Correctly 94
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 83.2%

    Less than or Equal to Avg. STD 154
    Total Projected Correctly 107
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 69.5%




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Counselor


Joined: 31 Jan 2017
Posts: 2075
PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 12:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EaglesPeteC wrote:
ny92jefferis wrote:
Still a long ways to go before I have the statistical sim set up to project wins and loses, but I need to know that you guys are gonna be ok with this process before moving forward.

Take a minute a view the link below, and let me know if you believe that this would work.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nQjxp5LTM59PtNOdnPoCa6kTU6sKYVxZaaNnIULkfxY/edit?usp=sharing

The sheet "Grouped Projections" will give you a better look at the numbers, but with the current formulas as they are I'm getting the following results.

    Total Games Played 267
    Total Projected Correctly 201
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 75.3%

    Greater than or Equal to Avg. STD 113
    Total Projected Correctly 94
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 83.2%

    Less than or Equal to Avg. STD 154
    Total Projected Correctly 107
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 69.5%




That's a lot of STDs Shocked
_________________
In reference to concern about Joshua Dobbs' Knees

48 1/2ers wrote:
Ostriches have inverted knees and they're pretty athletic...


GIF of Ostrich Running Here...

The Wheat Grass Shooting Hippies made me get rid of it...
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6615
Location: America
PostPosted: Sun May 07, 2017 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Counselor wrote:
EaglesPeteC wrote:
ny92jefferis wrote:
Still a long ways to go before I have the statistical sim set up to project wins and loses, but I need to know that you guys are gonna be ok with this process before moving forward.

Take a minute a view the link below, and let me know if you believe that this would work.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nQjxp5LTM59PtNOdnPoCa6kTU6sKYVxZaaNnIULkfxY/edit?usp=sharing

The sheet "Grouped Projections" will give you a better look at the numbers, but with the current formulas as they are I'm getting the following results.

    Total Games Played 267
    Total Projected Correctly 201
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 75.3%

    Greater than or Equal to Avg. STD 113
    Total Projected Correctly 94
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 83.2%

    Less than or Equal to Avg. STD 154
    Total Projected Correctly 107
    Correctly Proj. Percentage: 69.5%




That's a lot of STDs Shocked


haha....I'm going to take this as, it'll work for simulating wins to determine draft pick order as well as a little bit of bragging rights.

Now to convert all of this into individual stat play, along with minimal game planning options, mainly allowing for adjusted attempts, and hope that it works.
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6615
Location: America
PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2017 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lets start a discussion about this, as I've been giving this thing a lot of thought lately.

I really hope this isn't a deal breaker for some of you looking for a keeper league to join. However, I'm really not liking the idea of having a fantasy draft at the start of this thing. I just feel that it completely takes away from how I'd like to build this. Personally, I'm just a fan of realism, and keeping the rosters as they are irl at the start fits that mold of what I'm wanting to do with this keeper league.

So now that you know I'm looking for realism, well as much as we can shove in that is. However, the more complex the greater the odds of "I'm gonna need help" increase.

The boys over at BDL have a decent sized group of guys that all play some type of role, in managing or monitoring some event within the mock.

So do you think we could do something similar here?

For example, 5th year options, would be appointed to a member, and another would be in charge of rfa & tagged tenders and someone else could manage the draft, which is nothing new to us. Really the only thing that would take any serious excel skills would be the ufa, waiver wire, udfa. I know it sounds like work, but its fun work if that helps...haha.

Point is I can't do this by myself, the mock draft I currently run isn't too bad, because I spend a lot of prep time, but anyone that's GM'ed can tell you, they've seen me taking short cuts when updating the full contract into the team rosters, because those years have no bearing on that mock draft. Completely different story with this monster of a keeper league.

#AnyTakers
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Epochalypse


Joined: 20 Mar 2017
Posts: 37
PostPosted: Fri May 19, 2017 8:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If it helps, I agree to start with the team rosters as is.
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Counselor


Joined: 31 Jan 2017
Posts: 2075
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ny92jefferis wrote:
Lets start a discussion about this, as I've been giving this thing a lot of thought lately.

I really hope this isn't a deal breaker for some of you looking for a keeper league to join. However, I'm really not liking the idea of having a fantasy draft at the start of this thing. I just feel that it completely takes away from how I'd like to build this. Personally, I'm just a fan of realism, and keeping the rosters as they are irl at the start fits that mold of what I'm wanting to do with this keeper league.

So now that you know I'm looking for realism, well as much as we can shove in that is. However, the more complex the greater the odds of "I'm gonna need help" increase.

The boys over at BDL have a decent sized group of guys that all play some type of role, in managing or monitoring some event within the mock.

So do you think we could do something similar here?

For example, 5th year options, would be appointed to a member, and another would be in charge of rfa & tagged tenders and someone else could manage the draft, which is nothing new to us. Really the only thing that would take any serious excel skills would be the ufa, waiver wire, udfa. I know it sounds like work, but its fun work if that helps...haha.

Point is I can't do this by myself, the mock draft I currently run isn't too bad, because I spend a lot of prep time, but anyone that's GM'ed can tell you, they've seen me taking short cuts when updating the full contract into the team rosters, because those years have no bearing on that mock draft. Completely different story with this monster of a keeper league.

#AnyTakers


I'm all in for starting with realism and obviously over time the realism fades as we draft players to our team that likely will be on other teams irl every year.
_________________
In reference to concern about Joshua Dobbs' Knees

48 1/2ers wrote:
Ostriches have inverted knees and they're pretty athletic...


GIF of Ostrich Running Here...

The Wheat Grass Shooting Hippies made me get rid of it...
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6615
Location: America
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little help please.

I'm looking into both offense and defensive schemes. The list that I'm finding with the most systems in place is wikipedia, they list out the following, however this list includes college schemes as well.

Does anyone have a link they could provide, or a list of just NFL schemes for both sides of the ball?

I need this to set up the win projection simulation.

current list:

Option offense
Run and shoot offense
Smashmouth offense
Air Coryell offense
Spread offense
West Coast offense

Defense:

4-3
3-4
5-2
4-4
3-3-5
46 defense
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6615
Location: America
PostPosted: Sun May 21, 2017 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alright, so I need you guys to look over this doc. It is grading out the defensive line play from last season.

There are light blue colored cells designed for you to change the correlation percentages, to improve the ranking/grading of the players.

I think the numbers are pretty close but it's always better to have more people looking it over.

The listings are split up for 43DE, 34DE, 43DT and 34DT as each group's correlation percentage carries different values. For example, 43DE carry more weight for sacks than a 34DE.

Remember this grading is just looking at the 2016 stats, but let me know what you guys think of these numbers and if you think the correlation numbers should be changed, please note in the forum.

Thanks.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14T3nGuRc8Cy3J6gD4sJypAwx2LZZqpNTlDO_WDwUHO4/edit?usp=sharing
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sparky151


Joined: 07 Feb 2012
Posts: 2792
Location: Columbus, OH
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Your methodology sure loves the Vikings D-line.
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Tatupu_64


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Joined: 05 Apr 2007
Posts: 26316
Location: Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ny92jefferis wrote:
Little help please.

I'm looking into both offense and defensive schemes. The list that I'm finding with the most systems in place is wikipedia, they list out the following, however this list includes college schemes as well.

Does anyone have a link they could provide, or a list of just NFL schemes for both sides of the ball?

I need this to set up the win projection simulation.

current list:

Option offense
Run and shoot offense
Smashmouth offense
Air Coryell offense
Spread offense
West Coast offense

Defense:

4-3
3-4
5-2
4-4
3-3-5
46 defense
I would say offensively, Option offense isn't applicable to the NFL. If it would me I would break it up into 3 categories.

1) Type of Run Offense
-Power/Man
-Zone
-Flex (combination)

2) Type of Pass Offense
-Vertical
-West Coast
-Spread
-Play-action heavy

3) Weight on run vs. pass
-Run Heavy (60% run?)
-Pass Heavy (60% pass?)
-Balanced

As far as defense, 4-3, 3-4, and maybe 46 are the only pertinent offenses to a base system. I think Nickel should be included though too as roughly 2/3rds of the game are played in the nicke

I would assume most teams either run a 2-4-5 (base 3-4 defense with DEs on the inside and OLBs on the edge), a 4-2-5 (base 4-3 with one LB removed. Maybe an option to have someone else subbed in at DE), and a 3-3-5

EDIT
This is solid for offensive formations
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1659751-identifying-every-nfl-teams-base-offense
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6615
Location: America
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tatupu_64 wrote:
ny92jefferis wrote:
Little help please.

I'm looking into both offense and defensive schemes. The list that I'm finding with the most systems in place is wikipedia, they list out the following, however this list includes college schemes as well.

Does anyone have a link they could provide, or a list of just NFL schemes for both sides of the ball?

I need this to set up the win projection simulation.

current list:

Option offense
Run and shoot offense
Smashmouth offense
Air Coryell offense
Spread offense
West Coast offense

Defense:

4-3
3-4
5-2
4-4
3-3-5
46 defense
I would say offensively, Option offense isn't applicable to the NFL. If it would me I would break it up into 3 categories.

1) Type of Run Offense
-Power/Man
-Zone
-Flex (combination)

2) Type of Pass Offense
-Vertical
-West Coast
-Spread
-Play-action heavy

3) Weight on run vs. pass
-Run Heavy (60% run?)
-Pass Heavy (60% pass?)
-Balanced

As far as defense, 4-3, 3-4, and maybe 46 are the only pertinent offenses to a base system. I think Nickel should be included though too as roughly 2/3rds of the game are played in the nicke

I would assume most teams either run a 2-4-5 (base 3-4 defense with DEs on the inside and OLBs on the edge), a 4-2-5 (base 4-3 with one LB removed. Maybe an option to have someone else subbed in at DE), and a 3-3-5

EDIT
This is solid for offensive formations
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1659751-identifying-every-nfl-teams-base-offense



Thanks Tats appreciate the info.

I like what you're suggesting, however my knowledge is limited in this area. The main purpose for this would be to determine how many star players at each position would be needed to run each scheme. For example, if you're running a power/man vs zone is there a greater need for dual TE or a FB? Or is your passing game is west coast is the need greater to have 4 wide outs vs the play action?
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6615
Location: America
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sparky151 wrote:
Your methodology sure loves the Vikings D-line.


stats don't lie but they can be misleading...haha.
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ny92jefferis


Joined: 22 Mar 2013
Posts: 6615
Location: America
PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll post up the rest of the positions today, to get a clear picture of the formulas.
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