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CLE/NYJ/49ers- Figuring Out the '18 QB Race for a Top-2 Pick
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Iamcanadian


Joined: 16 Jan 2006
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Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2017 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Teams that will for sure take a high 1st round QB if the opportunity presents itself
Jets
49ers
Browns
Bills

Teams that might take a QB
Redskins (Depends if Cousins goes elsewhere which I doubt)
Cardinals
Miami
Jags
Denver

Teams that might take a QB to develop as a replacement
Steelers
Chargers
Giants
Vikings
Saints
Pats


Cousins, JimmyG, and McCarron could impact some teams.
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Mastercheddaar


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PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2017 3:11 pm    Post subject: hmmmm Reply with quote

If we are talking about a QB in the 2018 then why did we draft Kizer? We could have had several defensive players and went with Kessler and Brock. Big reason why I was mad at the Kizer pick. We need to give him time to see if he develops. If we pick a top QB next year, what are we going to do?

that is all

Mastercheddaar
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NudeTayne


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PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2017 3:40 pm    Post subject: Re: hmmmm Reply with quote

Mastercheddaar wrote:
If we are talking about a QB in the 2018 then why did we draft Kizer? We could have had several defensive players and went with Kessler and Brock. Big reason why I was mad at the Kizer pick. We need to give him time to see if he develops. If we pick a top QB next year, what are we going to do?

that is all

Mastercheddaar


You make a point here that cannot be ignored. I'd go as far as saying that without meaning to be, this entire thread is one big troll job. We drafted Kizer to get a good look at Kizer. Even if he doesn't show much his rookie year, I severely doubt we're going to trade up with everything we have next year just to give up on Kizer/Kessler (I have faith in both so do think we have our QB between the two).
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DizzyDean


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PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2017 3:53 pm    Post subject: Re: hmmmm Reply with quote

Mastercheddaar wrote:
If we are talking about a QB in the 2018 then why did we draft Kizer? We could have had several defensive players and went with Kessler and Brock. Big reason why I was mad at the Kizer pick. We need to give him time to see if he develops. If we pick a top QB next year, what are we going to do?

that is all

Mastercheddaar


We are talking about qbs next year because he is an uncertain project. Nothing wrong with the pick it's self, just made a round and a half too early.
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LETSGOBROWNIES


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PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2017 8:54 pm    Post subject: Re: hmmmm Reply with quote

DizzyDean wrote:
Mastercheddaar wrote:
If we are talking about a QB in the 2018 then why did we draft Kizer? We could have had several defensive players and went with Kessler and Brock. Big reason why I was mad at the Kizer pick. We need to give him time to see if he develops. If we pick a top QB next year, what are we going to do?

that is all

Mastercheddaar


We are talking about qbs next year because he is an uncertain project. Nothing wrong with the pick it's self, just made a round and a half too early.



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DizzyDean


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PostPosted: Mon May 15, 2017 11:44 pm    Post subject: Re: hmmmm Reply with quote

LETSGOBROWNIES wrote:
DizzyDean wrote:
Mastercheddaar wrote:
If we are talking about a QB in the 2018 then why did we draft Kizer? We could have had several defensive players and went with Kessler and Brock. Big reason why I was mad at the Kizer pick. We need to give him time to see if he develops. If we pick a top QB next year, what are we going to do?

that is all

Mastercheddaar


We are talking about qbs next year because he is an uncertain project. Nothing wrong with the pick it's self, just made a round and a half too early.





apparently not, as the same questions keep being asked over and over. When the questions stop, then I stop answering.
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Iamcanadian


Joined: 16 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Tue May 16, 2017 1:24 am    Post subject: Re: hmmmm Reply with quote

Mastercheddaar wrote:
If we are talking about a QB in the 2018 then why did we draft Kizer? We could have had several defensive players and went with Kessler and Brock. Big reason why I was mad at the Kizer pick. We need to give him time to see if he develops. If we pick a top QB next year, what are we going to do?

that is all

Mastercheddaar


We drafted Kizer because the FO and HC do not believe Kessler has the ability to be a NFL starter. He is a career backup and no amount of playing time will change that.

Kizer is an upgrade over Kessler and they wanted to see if he could eventually become a NFL starter although the odds are long against him.

Lets see:

Miami - 1st round QB
Baltimore - 1st round QB
Steelers - 1st round QB
Colts - 1st round QB
Houston - 1st round QB
Jaguars - 1st round QB
Titans - 1st round QB
Chiefs - 1st round QB
Broncos - 1st round QB
Chargers - 1st round QB
Eagles - 1st round QB
Giants - 1st round QB
Packers - 1st round QB
Vikings - 1st round QB
Lions - 1st round QB
Bears - 1st round QB
Falcons - 1st round QB
Panthers - 1st round QB
Tampa - 1st round QB
Arizona - 1st round QB
Rams - 1st round QB

That's 21 out of 32 teams and when you subtract the teams who really do not have a proven QB, Cleveland, San Fran, Buffalo, and the Jets, it is 21/28 teams that have found their QB in round 1, that's 75%.

Teams that got lucky in later rounds, certainly NE, Cincy, Oakland, Dallas, Washington Saints and Seattle, of those the Saints and Seattle got lucky with short QB's who had 1st round skills but fell because they were short. We tried that with Manziel? Only NE, Dallas and Washington found QB's past round 2 and Washington doesn't seem too happy with their guy. That's 1% of NFL starting QB's.

That is why we will in all likelihood draft a QB next year with our 1st round pick unless Kizer beats the odds and is successful. If he shows the FO and HC that he is quite capable of being a NFL starting QB, we will in all likelihood, pass on drafting a 1st round QB, but I am not holding my breath.

NFL GM's consistently draft QB's in round 1 even if they have to gamble a bit, because they know the odds and since their jobs depend on finding a QB, they will draft QB's over and over till they get it right. In the NFL it is called the 'Golden Rule', a term that has been around at least since the 60's. These are the simple facts for finding an NFL franchise QB, every owner and GM knows them, so do not expect them to vary a whole lot from the proven formula to find 1.

Of course, we are all hoping that Kizer is the rare exception to the rule and proves that every team that passed on him made a huge mistake, but until that happens, the FO will prepare as if we are still looking for a franchise QB and that is why this discussion is a valid one.
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Iamcanadian


Joined: 16 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Thu May 18, 2017 3:02 am    Post subject: Re: CLE/NYJ/49ers- Figuring Out the '18 QB Race for a Top-2 Reply with quote

Mind Character wrote:


Do you think the Browns lose enough games to secure a top-2 pick and the chance to select one of the top QB1s??

------------------

Ultimately, the battle for a 2018 top-2 pick and pick of the top 2 QB1s will likely come down to 3 teams...

Which teams are likely to be in the running, and where do the Browns stand in the race?



---------------------

Tentatively projecting answers to those questions yielded the following:

The Race for Darnold and Allen (or insert your favorite QB1s name here)

I wanted to get an idea of which teams are likely to be in the running for the top 2-3 picks in the 2018 draft with the thought in mind that it is somewhat likely that 2 of Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Riley Ferguson, and Luke Falk (if healthy and continue their progression) will come off the board 1 and 2 as franchise QB1s. Talent-wise it's Darnold and Allen all day if they continue to progress and stay healthy.


Taking Inventory of the complete Trash and Amazingness that is NFL Roster Talent...


Beyond my own personal knowledge of teams/coaches, to find out the trash versus impact talent composition of teams, I looked over the rosters/projected depth charts of all the nfl teams on rotoworld (http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/depth-charts/nfl.aspx) to get an idea of the roster talent/deficiencies of each team.

The Caveat


I know that these rosters are incomplete and the nfl season does hold some surprises based on players/teams transcending expectations, unexpected injuries that derail successful seasons, and favorable scheduling.

However, it's pretty easy to see which teams are going to be awful..
------------------------

The Five-Team Race
(In no particular order)These are the worst teams and some major deficiencies in their roster:



The QB1 needy:


1. 49ers
-No WR playmakers besides Garcon (Marquis Goodwin, Pierre Garcon, and Jeremy Kurley);
-no CBs at all
-QB issues (Hoyer and Barkely)
- No TE (Lynch admitted they tried to trade Vance Mcdonald)

2. The Jets
-No RBs (Bilal Powell; an aging Matt Forte);
No QB (Mccown, Petty, Hackenberg);
No true WR1 (Eric Decker, Quincy Enunwa, Chad Hansen, Jalin Marshall, ArDarius Stewart);
-No True TE1 with experience (Seferian-Jenkins; Jordan Legget)
-No 34OLBs for pass rush (Lorenzo Mauldin; Jordan Jenkins)
-CBs won't stop anyone (Claiborne, Buster Skrine, Marcus Williams)

3. Browns
-Issues of Youth/Inexperience
-QB Issues
-WR1 issues
-Secondary issues


The Non-QB needy:


1. Rams
--Inexperienced QB
--WR and impact pass catcher issues
--OL issues
-Secondary issues

2. Bears
--InexperiencedQB
--No Pass catchers (WR Kevin White; Cameron Meredith, Kendall White, Reuben Randle)
--No TE


----------------------------------
(No particular order) Outside Chance of being bad or even really bad

1. Vikings
-OL issues
-WR1 issues
-Rookie RB and Latavius Murray
-QB health issues

2. Bengals
--OL issues
--Secondary issues
--Some DLine and pass rush issues
--Rookies at key many key offensive positons

3. Colts
--WR issues
--Defensive playmaker issues
--No 34OLB pass rush specialist (Sheard and John Simon won't cut it as impact playmakers in the 34 although I love both the players)
--Scheme fit issues

4. Texans
--Inexperienced QB
--Secondary issues

5. Lions
--RB issues
--OL Issues
-Secondary issues
-Defensive playmaker issues
--pass rush issues

6. Buffalo Bills
--WR health and inexperience (Watkins and Zay Jones)
-TE1 issues
-Oline issues
-Safety issues
--------------------------

I think that the Jets have the best chance at getting the #1 or 2 pick followed by the 49ers.

I think the Browns are likely to be the third worse team in the league based on record with an outside chance that the 49ers or Bears end up with the third worse record in the league.

I think the supreme talent QB1 game changers will go 1 and 2.....so, the only way the Browns realistically have a chance at Darnold or Allen (or whoever your #2 QB is) would be if the Bears or Rams finished with the second worst record in the league, thereby allowing us to trade up with them for the pick due to their having Goff and Trubisky as future QB1s already on their respective roster.


I really believe that QB's could go 1,2,3 in this draft if Rosen has a breakout season which he is quite capable of doing. However, I think you need to add Buffalo to your list of QB desperate teams. This draft is so special, that as many as 7 QB's potentially could go round 1 if they all declare. That's how good this QB crop is.
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bungleodeon


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 4:09 pm    Post subject: Re: hmmmm Reply with quote

DizzyDean wrote:
LETSGOBROWNIES wrote:
DizzyDean wrote:
Mastercheddaar wrote:
If we are talking about a QB in the 2018 then why did we draft Kizer? We could have had several defensive players and went with Kessler and Brock. Big reason why I was mad at the Kizer pick. We need to give him time to see if he develops. If we pick a top QB next year, what are we going to do?

that is all

Mastercheddaar


We are talking about qbs next year because he is an uncertain project. Nothing wrong with the pick it's self, just made a round and a half too early.





apparently not, as the same questions keep being asked over and over. When the questions stop, then I stop answering.
so basically, "ask me no more questions and i'll tell you no more lies"?
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DawgX


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iamcanadian wrote:
Teams that will for sure take a high 1st round QB if the opportunity presents itself
Jets
49ers
Browns
Bills

Teams that might take a QB
Redskins (Depends if Cousins goes elsewhere which I doubt)
Cardinals
Miami
Jags
Denver

Teams that might take a QB to develop as a replacement
Steelers
Chargers
Giants
Vikings
Saints
Pats


Cousins, JimmyG, and McCarron could impact some teams.


Don't think we can say for sure that the Browns will take a QB next year. I'd say it's very likely, but certainly not a sure thing. It depends on what we see from Kessler and Kizer this year.
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DizzyDean


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DawgX wrote:
Iamcanadian wrote:
Teams that will for sure take a high 1st round QB if the opportunity presents itself
Jets
49ers
Browns
Bills

Teams that might take a QB
Redskins (Depends if Cousins goes elsewhere which I doubt)
Cardinals
Miami
Jags
Denver

Teams that might take a QB to develop as a replacement
Steelers
Chargers
Giants
Vikings
Saints
Pats


Cousins, JimmyG, and McCarron could impact some teams.


Don't think we can say for sure that the Browns will take a QB next year. I'd say it's very likely, but certainly not a sure thing. It depends on what we see from Kessler and Kizer this year.


agree completely, although you did omit another name that we need to be watching Smile
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DizzyDean


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My own personal odds making as of today.

40% chance we are looking for a QB next year.
25% chance Kessler is the answer and we won't be looking.
25% chance Osweiler is the answer and we won't be looking.
10% chance Kizer is the answer and we won't be looking.
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cattleman78


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 5:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Rams pick number one or two they could very well move on from Goff.
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brownie man


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DizzyDean wrote:
My own personal odds making as of today.

40% chance we are looking for a QB next year.
25% chance Kessler is the answer and we won't be looking.
25% chance Osweiler is the answer and we won't be looking.
10% chance Kizer is the answer and we won't be looking.


I'll give mines


100% fact Deshone Kizer is our franchise QB
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DizzyDean wrote:

I never even predicted Kizer to fail, I simply said he was an over drafted project. Now tell me that I am wrong in that regard.


^^^^
This dude is gonna look real bad
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EL Brownso


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PostPosted: Tue May 23, 2017 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

brownie man wrote:
DizzyDean wrote:
My own personal odds making as of today.

40% chance we are looking for a QB next year.
25% chance Kessler is the answer and we won't be looking.
25% chance Osweiler is the answer and we won't be looking.
10% chance Kizer is the answer and we won't be looking.


I'll give mines


100% fact Deshone Kizer is our franchise QB


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