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big9erfan


Joined: 26 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 3:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

John232 wrote:
I'm not paying out big for a back that can't even stay Healthy in a committee. end of story. Hyde is solid, but he offers nothing outside of being a good runner. I like Hyde, he's fun to watch, but he's not a YPC beast, his vision is so-so and I think of him as being pretty average catching out of the backfield.

Would he be easily replaceable? No, but his production could probably be replaced in a committee. Also, if the team didn't share this same thought they wouldn't have traded for Bipps, resigned Harris, signed Hightwoer and then draft Joe Williams in the fourth. They obviously have concerns about Hyde long term given how much we just loaded up at RB.


I'm not talking about signing him for big bucks. Just saying I wouldn't unload him for a 6th. Also saying that If he can stay healthy he can be a top 10 back and that is worth holding on to at the right price, and if he can stay healthy this year
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 5:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:


the top 3 rushers in the league last year were zeke, howard and murray. If you extend hyde's rushing yards to the same number of carries those three guys had he would have 1466, 1147 and 1334 yards respectively. One of those is a top 10 number. The other two would place him at number 2. And that's behind our line. Let him run the same number of times that zeke ran behind that same line and he might give zeke's total a run for the money. Extend his numbers to the same number of carries as freeman and he would nearly match his rushing total, and atlanta's line was wa better, their offense was better, and they had ryan and julio go worry about. So, no, i don't see him as merely a middle of the pack guy ... when healthy of course.


Oh dear god....please tell me that you realized after you posted this what a ridiculously flawed argument this is and you were hoping that I wouldn't notice? Seriously? Expanding stats for one player only and then using the bulk stat result to validate your point? Really? You don't see the flaw in that? Talk about manipulating figures to get a result.

Let me break it down...if you're doing it for Hyde, do it for everyone. So lets keep it simple. All running backs get the same amount of carries. Where does Hyde finish in rushing yards? 11th, because that's where his YPC is. The year before? 27th. So get out of here with that top 5 nonsense.

Secondly, you didn't even address the outlier game. J did, to an extent, but unless I'm taking his post wrong, I don't think he was saying I was incorrect, just that if I'm going to do that, I need to take the outlier game away on the other end of the spectrum. After doing that, his average last year was a little over 4.1, which is right in line with his career averages of 4.0 and 4.1 the previous 2 years. You're still using the 4.6 average if you get him at #11 but over the length of his career, outside of that one game, he's largely been a 4.1 guy. This is where the bulk of the NFL resides - 4.3 would put you at 15th last year, where as 4.1 gets you 21st/22nd. The year before, it was even worse - 4.3 got you 20th, while 4.1 got you 26th - 31.

There's nothing that really supports that game as being anything more than an outlier. Before that game, he had had 2 games in his career where he had a 30 yard run, and only 5 games where he had had a 20 yard run. and he had never had a 40 yard run. He had 2 40 yard runs in that Jets game and 4 runs of over 20 yards total. His sample size over his career isn't so small now where that is meaningless. Maybe you still think he's a 4.6 type guy, but there's nothing in his history that supports that to me.

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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Mon May 08, 2017 5:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:


the top 3 rushers in the league last year were zeke, howard and murray. If you extend hyde's rushing yards to the same number of carries those three guys had he would have 1466, 1147 and 1334 yards respectively. One of those is a top 10 number. The other two would place him at number 2. And that's behind our line. Let him run the same number of times that zeke ran behind that same line and he might give zeke's total a run for the money. Extend his numbers to the same number of carries as freeman and he would nearly match his rushing total, and atlanta's line was wa better, their offense was better, and they had ryan and julio go worry about. So, no, i don't see him as merely a middle of the pack guy ... when healthy of course.


Oh dear god....please tell me that you realized after you posted this what a ridiculously flawed argument this is and you were hoping that I wouldn't notice? Seriously? Expanding stats for one player only and then using the bulk stat result to validate your point? Really? You don't see the flaw in that? Talk about manipulating figures to get a result.

Let me break it down...if you're doing it for Hyde, do it for everyone. So lets keep it simple. All running backs get the same amount of carries. Where does Hyde finish in rushing yards? 11th, because that's where his YPC is. The year before? 27th. So get out of here with that top 5 nonsense.

Secondly, you didn't even address the outlier game. J did, to an extent, but unless I'm taking his post wrong, I don't think he was saying I was incorrect, just that if I'm going to do that, I need to take the outlier game away on the other end of the spectrum. After doing that, his average last year was a little over 4.1, which is right in line with his career averages of 4.0 and 4.1 the previous 2 years. You're still using the 4.6 average if you get him at #11 but over the length of his career, outside of that one game, he's largely been a 4.1 guy. This is where the bulk of the NFL resides - 4.3 would put you at 15th last year, where as 4.1 gets you 21st/22nd. The year before, it was even worse - 4.3 got you 20th, while 4.1 got you 26th - 31.

There's nothing that really supports that game as being anything more than an outlier. Before that game, he had had 2 games in his career where he had a 30 yard run, and only 5 games where he had had a 20 yard run. and he had never had a 40 yard run. He had 2 40 yard runs in that Jets game and 4 runs of over 20 yards total. His sample size over his career isn't so small now where that is meaningless. Maybe you still think he's a 4.6 type guy, but there's nothing in his history that supports that to me.


When one guy runs 300 times and another guy runs 200 times or one guy passes 400 times while another pass 300 times trying to normalize their stats so you can compare them is not only perfectly reasonable, it's done all the time. It's a perfectly normal thing to do Sure it doesn't make sense to extrapolate from a single pass or a single run, but more than 200 is a reasonable number of attempts to extrapolate from. I'm not arguing he's the second best back in the league just that if he carried the ball a whole lot more, and ran bdhind a better line and on a team with a better passing attack that his rushing totals would be way more impressive, possibly very impressive.

What seems to me less reasonable is to call a guy's best game an outlier and try to remove it from his totals. the very nature of being a rb is that you run into the line for little or no gain a lot and every now and then break a long one. You occasionally have a very bad game, and occasionally have a very good game. They all count. Over time it all averages out. I agree that even a little over 200 runs might not be the best sample, but it's certainly not unreasonable.. I don't agree with notion of discounting someone's best game if the sample size is big enough, and to me 200+ is. I suspect most every good player has one outstanding game which if removed from his season totals would make his stats less impressive.

As an aside, do you remember how much griedf i got for pointing out that half of garrett"s season sack total and a third of his tackles came asganst a single team, and mot a good one. That comment made a whole more sense given i was talking about like 5 out of 10 sacks, rather tha 20 out of 200 runs, or whatever the correct numbers are. Still many here didn't liked the notion of discounting a guy's best game as an outlier.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What's up with the love for Kaaya on the 49ers forum. People like him. OK. But he's only one of a whole bunch of guys that have late round potential. I would have thought sentiment would be split between a number of guys. Yet everyone doing the "are you smarter than" and a whole bunch of people that did mocks almost all had Kaaya as their guy. I mean if he was clearly better than all those other QBs he'd have gone higher, right? I'm not saying he won't make it. Just kind of wondering how almost universal the love for him seems to be. Every year there seems to be some guy that the 49ers forum falls in love with that is maybe barely mentioned in other teams' forum. Not sure how that happens. Curious.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Sat May 20, 2017 1:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
What's up with the love for Kaaya on the 49ers forum. People like him. OK. But he's only one of a whole bunch of guys that have late round potential. I would have thought sentiment would be split between a number of guys. Yet everyone doing the "are you smarter than" and a whole bunch of people that did mocks almost all had Kaaya as their guy. I mean if he was clearly better than all those other QBs he'd have gone higher, right? I'm not saying he won't make it. Just kind of wondering how almost universal the love for him seems to be. Every year there seems to be some guy that the 49ers forum falls in love with that is maybe barely mentioned in other teams' forum. Not sure how that happens. Curious.



I think most of the love for Kaaya comes from not loving the other QBs available. I think there's also the pro-style versus college-style bias (a justified bias, in my opinion). Beat Hard was so off everyone's radar, that the only pro-style QB people saw was Kaaya, leading to an inflation of his perceived value. I think it's really just that. Pro vs college style. I don't think anyone truly felt Kaaya had high end starting potential. Personally, I was pretty much fine with drafting a long term back-up in the mid rounds. For a sixth rounder, I still expect Kaaya to hang around the league for a long time, something that can't be said of all the QBs taken before him.
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Melbourne 9er


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PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 5:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
What's up with the love for Kaaya on the 49ers forum. People like him. OK. But he's only one of a whole bunch of guys that have late round potential. I would have thought sentiment would be split between a number of guys. Yet everyone doing the "are you smarter than" and a whole bunch of people that did mocks almost all had Kaaya as their guy. I mean if he was clearly better than all those other QBs he'd have gone higher, right? I'm not saying he won't make it. Just kind of wondering how almost universal the love for him seems to be. Every year there seems to be some guy that the 49ers forum falls in love with that is maybe barely mentioned in other teams' forum. Not sure how that happens. Curious.


Most, including myself, are looking at a backup in the 6th round. With a late rounder you either want a boom-or-bust prospect, such as Chad Kelly, or you want a solid backup with a relatively high floor but a medium ceiling with a chance of better. I think you get the latter with Kaaya. Much prefer him in the 6th than Beathard in the 3rd.
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PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
What's up with the love for Kaaya on the 49ers forum. People like him. OK. But he's only one of a whole bunch of guys that have late round potential. I would have thought sentiment would be split between a number of guys. Yet everyone doing the "are you smarter than" and a whole bunch of people that did mocks almost all had Kaaya as their guy. I mean if he was clearly better than all those other QBs he'd have gone higher, right? I'm not saying he won't make it. Just kind of wondering how almost universal the love for him seems to be. Every year there seems to be some guy that the 49ers forum falls in love with that is maybe barely mentioned in other teams' forum. Not sure how that happens. Curious.


Value thing. Most people didn't have Beat Hard ranked close to Kaaya, who at one time was perceived as a top overall pick type prospect, yet you could get Kaaya 3 rounds later. Even if you didn't like Kaaya going into the draft, I don't know of anyone who had Beat Hard ranked higher. Kaaya also would have been a good fit for Shanny (Beat Hard is too, but Kaaya is one of the few in this draft that Beat Hard didn't have that advantage on). Kaaya simply represented one of the few decent values at the position in this draft. I don't think that anyone "loves" Kaaya...think it was all just about his draft value in relation to his actual skill and ranking as a prospect. So in a game like this, why take Beat Hard at 3? You get something comparable with Kaaya at 6, and you can use that third rounder on a superior prospect at another position.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 11:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
What's up with the love for Kaaya on the 49ers forum. People like him. OK. But he's only one of a whole bunch of guys that have late round potential. I would have thought sentiment would be split between a number of guys. Yet everyone doing the "are you smarter than" and a whole bunch of people that did mocks almost all had Kaaya as their guy. I mean if he was clearly better than all those other QBs he'd have gone higher, right? I'm not saying he won't make it. Just kind of wondering how almost universal the love for him seems to be. Every year there seems to be some guy that the 49ers forum falls in love with that is maybe barely mentioned in other teams' forum. Not sure how that happens. Curious.


Value thing. Most people didn't have Beat Hard ranked close to Kaaya, who at one time was perceived as a top overall pick type prospect, yet you could get Kaaya 3 rounds later. Even if you didn't like Kaaya going into the draft, I don't know of anyone who had Beat Hard ranked higher. Kaaya also would have been a good fit for Shanny (Beat Hard is too, but Kaaya is one of the few in this draft that Beat Hard didn't have that advantage on). Kaaya simply represented one of the few decent values at the position in this draft. I don't think that anyone "loves" Kaaya...think it was all just about his draft value in relation to his actual skill and ranking as a prospect. So in a game like this, why take Beat Hard at 3? You get something comparable with Kaaya at 6, and you can use that third rounder on a superior prospect at another position.


Yeah, I get all that and understand. The thing is that even before the draft before we knew how it would unfold a whole lot, if not most, of the folks here were all picking Kaaya when there were in fact a few other guys with equally likely chances to succeed. I mean if he was that much better than those other guys he'd have been a third rounder not gone so late. Why didn't a few here prefer Peterman, or Dobbs, or heck even Beathard who apparently our coaches thought a whole lot more of? Again, I'm not arguing against him. Just kind of wondering how every year there seems to be some mid to late round talent that the 49ers forum fall in love with en masse.
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PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
What's up with the love for Kaaya on the 49ers forum. People like him. OK. But he's only one of a whole bunch of guys that have late round potential. I would have thought sentiment would be split between a number of guys. Yet everyone doing the "are you smarter than" and a whole bunch of people that did mocks almost all had Kaaya as their guy. I mean if he was clearly better than all those other QBs he'd have gone higher, right? I'm not saying he won't make it. Just kind of wondering how almost universal the love for him seems to be. Every year there seems to be some guy that the 49ers forum falls in love with that is maybe barely mentioned in other teams' forum. Not sure how that happens. Curious.


Value thing. Most people didn't have Beat Hard ranked close to Kaaya, who at one time was perceived as a top overall pick type prospect, yet you could get Kaaya 3 rounds later. Even if you didn't like Kaaya going into the draft, I don't know of anyone who had Beat Hard ranked higher. Kaaya also would have been a good fit for Shanny (Beat Hard is too, but Kaaya is one of the few in this draft that Beat Hard didn't have that advantage on). Kaaya simply represented one of the few decent values at the position in this draft. I don't think that anyone "loves" Kaaya...think it was all just about his draft value in relation to his actual skill and ranking as a prospect. So in a game like this, why take Beat Hard at 3? You get something comparable with Kaaya at 6, and you can use that third rounder on a superior prospect at another position.


Yeah, I get all that and understand. The thing is that even before the draft before we knew how it would unfold a whole lot, if not most, of the folks here were all picking Kaaya when there were in fact a few other guys with equally likely chances to succeed. I mean if he was that much better than those other guys he'd have been a third rounder not gone so late. Why didn't a few here prefer Peterman, or Dobbs, or heck even Beathard who apparently our coaches thought a whole lot more of? Again, I'm not arguing against him. Just kind of wondering how every year there seems to be some mid to late round talent that the 49ers forum fall in love with en masse.


Again, just a value thing. Kaaya seemed locked in to that round 4 area. Never heard much about him potentially going higher...Peterman, who I viewed as an inferior prospect, and who I think a lot of people viewed as inferior at worst, lateral at best, had talk of going in round 2. Same for Dobbs, who had first round scuttlebutt from McShay. If you don't perceive a great difference between Kaaya and the likes of those guys, Kaaya represented far superior value.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
What's up with the love for Kaaya on the 49ers forum. People like him. OK. But he's only one of a whole bunch of guys that have late round potential. I would have thought sentiment would be split between a number of guys. Yet everyone doing the "are you smarter than" and a whole bunch of people that did mocks almost all had Kaaya as their guy. I mean if he was clearly better than all those other QBs he'd have gone higher, right? I'm not saying he won't make it. Just kind of wondering how almost universal the love for him seems to be. Every year there seems to be some guy that the 49ers forum falls in love with that is maybe barely mentioned in other teams' forum. Not sure how that happens. Curious.


Value thing. Most people didn't have Beat Hard ranked close to Kaaya, who at one time was perceived as a top overall pick type prospect, yet you could get Kaaya 3 rounds later. Even if you didn't like Kaaya going into the draft, I don't know of anyone who had Beat Hard ranked higher. Kaaya also would have been a good fit for Shanny (Beat Hard is too, but Kaaya is one of the few in this draft that Beat Hard didn't have that advantage on). Kaaya simply represented one of the few decent values at the position in this draft. I don't think that anyone "loves" Kaaya...think it was all just about his draft value in relation to his actual skill and ranking as a prospect. So in a game like this, why take Beat Hard at 3? You get something comparable with Kaaya at 6, and you can use that third rounder on a superior prospect at another position.


Yeah, I get all that and understand. The thing is that even before the draft before we knew how it would unfold a whole lot, if not most, of the folks here were all picking Kaaya when there were in fact a few other guys with equally likely chances to succeed. I mean if he was that much better than those other guys he'd have been a third rounder not gone so late. Why didn't a few here prefer Peterman, or Dobbs, or heck even Beathard who apparently our coaches thought a whole lot more of? Again, I'm not arguing against him. Just kind of wondering how every year there seems to be some mid to late round talent that the 49ers forum fall in love with en masse.



For our team, we can't really compare BeatHard and Kaaya to guys like Peterman and Dobbs, I think, because chances are, these guys weren't even on Kylo's list. From our observations, it appeared obvious Kylo was more interested in pro style QBs, which didn't fit any of the other prospects. It somewhat fit Kaaya, though. That's why we maybe had a tendency to overvalue him, because of all the QBs we fan-scouted, Kaaya was the most likely to be a target for us. I don't think it was an infatuation, or a massive forum love fest. It's really just that he was the only one that seemed to fit. And that's because no one really thought of including Beat Hard in the list. I had him in the back of my mind in the preseason, but totally forgot about him since. Back to Kaaya, I don't think anyone really had high expectations of him. Most simply thought they'd rather take a chance on Kaaya in the middle rounds and try to develop him, and at worst he'd be a back-up, than take a wild chance on one of the massively overvalued first round QBs. As we've argued a lot throughout the offseason, taking the wrong QB in the first round sets you back at least 3-4 years. Making a mistake on Beat Hard or Kaaya doesn't prevent you from adding a free agent like Cousins or Garoppollo next year, or draft a QB in the first, if possible. That's why a guy like Kaaya had more value than a Trubisky or a Watson to us.
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Forge


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PostPosted: Mon May 22, 2017 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
Forge wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
What's up with the love for Kaaya on the 49ers forum. People like him. OK. But he's only one of a whole bunch of guys that have late round potential. I would have thought sentiment would be split between a number of guys. Yet everyone doing the "are you smarter than" and a whole bunch of people that did mocks almost all had Kaaya as their guy. I mean if he was clearly better than all those other QBs he'd have gone higher, right? I'm not saying he won't make it. Just kind of wondering how almost universal the love for him seems to be. Every year there seems to be some guy that the 49ers forum falls in love with that is maybe barely mentioned in other teams' forum. Not sure how that happens. Curious.


Value thing. Most people didn't have Beat Hard ranked close to Kaaya, who at one time was perceived as a top overall pick type prospect, yet you could get Kaaya 3 rounds later. Even if you didn't like Kaaya going into the draft, I don't know of anyone who had Beat Hard ranked higher. Kaaya also would have been a good fit for Shanny (Beat Hard is too, but Kaaya is one of the few in this draft that Beat Hard didn't have that advantage on). Kaaya simply represented one of the few decent values at the position in this draft. I don't think that anyone "loves" Kaaya...think it was all just about his draft value in relation to his actual skill and ranking as a prospect. So in a game like this, why take Beat Hard at 3? You get something comparable with Kaaya at 6, and you can use that third rounder on a superior prospect at another position.


Yeah, I get all that and understand. The thing is that even before the draft before we knew how it would unfold a whole lot, if not most, of the folks here were all picking Kaaya when there were in fact a few other guys with equally likely chances to succeed. I mean if he was that much better than those other guys he'd have been a third rounder not gone so late. Why didn't a few here prefer Peterman, or Dobbs, or heck even Beathard who apparently our coaches thought a whole lot more of? Again, I'm not arguing against him. Just kind of wondering how every year there seems to be some mid to late round talent that the 49ers forum fall in love with en masse.



For our team, we can't really compare BeatHard and Kaaya to guys like Peterman and Dobbs, I think, because chances are, these guys weren't even on Kylo's list. From our observations, it appeared obvious Kylo was more interested in pro style QBs, which didn't fit any of the other prospects. It somewhat fit Kaaya, though. That's why we maybe had a tendency to overvalue him, because of all the QBs we fan-scouted, Kaaya was the most likely to be a target for us. I don't think it was an infatuation, or a massive forum love fest. It's really just that he was the only one that seemed to fit. And that's because no one really thought of including Beat Hard in the list. I had him in the back of my mind in the preseason, but totally forgot about him since. Back to Kaaya, I don't think anyone really had high expectations of him. Most simply thought they'd rather take a chance on Kaaya in the middle rounds and try to develop him, and at worst he'd be a back-up, than take a wild chance on one of the massively overvalued first round QBs. As we've argued a lot throughout the offseason, taking the wrong QB in the first round sets you back at least 3-4 years. Making a mistake on Beat Hard or Kaaya doesn't prevent you from adding a free agent like Cousins or Garoppollo next year, or draft a QB in the first, if possible. That's why a guy like Kaaya had more value than a Trubisky or a Watson to us.


Peterman came from a pro-style offense at Pitt, just for accuracy purposes.
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