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How many sacks will the Redskins get this year?

 
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 9:22 am    Post subject: How many sacks will the Redskins get this year? Reply with quote

So, I was thinking this morning about how much our pass rush is improved this offseason, at least on paper. I think it's improved a lot - especially if Galette is healthy - and we have an opportunity to have as many sacks as we had in 2011, or more!

Here is my prediction of sacks in order:

Kerrigan: 11 sacks
Galette: 7 sacks
Allen: 6 sacks
Smith: 5 sacks
Murphy: 4 sacks
Anderson: 4 sacks
McGee: 4 sacks
McClain: 3 sacks
Brown: 2 sacks
Cravens: 1 sack
Hood: 1 sack

Total: 48 sacks
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 10:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kerrigan: 14 sacks - benefits tremendously from the attention Allen gets
Smith: 9 sacks - rebounds from sophomore slump
Allen: 8 sacks - ROTY candidate
Anderson: 5 sacks - gets the most playing time of any of the OLB backups
Murphy: 4 sacks - loses playing time to Anderson
Brown: 4 sacks - has pretty consistently gotten 4 sacks per year in career
McClain: 3 sacks - 2nd most productive front 3 player
Foster: 2 sacks - had 1 last year, benefits from new front
McGee: 1 sacks - mostly a run stuff, gets lucky once
Cravens: 0 sack - only had 1 last year, and we're moving him back further away from the LOS
Hood: 0 sack - doesn't see as much playing time this year.
Galette: 0 sacks - doesn't make roster
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MKnight82 wrote:
Kerrigan: 14 sacks - benefits tremendously from the attention Allen gets
Smith: 9 sacks - rebounds from sophomore slump
Allen: 8 sacks - ROTY candidate
Anderson: 5 sacks - gets the most playing time of any of the OLB backups
Murphy: 4 sacks - loses playing time to Anderson
Brown: 4 sacks - has pretty consistently gotten 4 sacks per year in career
McClain: 3 sacks - 2nd most productive front 3 player
Foster: 2 sacks - had 1 last year, benefits from new front
McGee: 1 sacks - mostly a run stuff, gets lucky once
Cravens: 0 sack - only had 1 last year, and we're moving him back further away from the LOS
Hood: 0 sack - doesn't see as much playing time this year.
Galette: 0 sacks - doesn't make roster
I can't totally disagree with your prediction, because who knows, we are just guessing, but I have a hard time believing that Allen will get 2 less sacks in his rookie season than what Leonard Williams has gotten in his first two seasons in the NFL which is 10.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I'd be shocked if it did.

I also have a hard time believing that Smith will double his sack total from last year considering that he will probably lose playing time to Anderson and IMO Galette.

I know you don't think Galette will make the roster but that clearly is yet to be determined. I think if Galette recovers to the point that he did by last training camp - before he blew out his other Achilles - which is entirely possible, that his experience as a veteran and the ability he's shown in the past to be a good run defender and near elite edge rusher will have him starting over Smith and Anderson, at worst he's a 3rd down pass rusher this year IMO.

I hate to say this, because I like Smith and I love his potential but let's not forget that most of Smith's sacks his first two years in the NFL came in games that he went against a rookie (like Detroit last year) or in games where he went against a team that didn't have a good starting LT or had their back up LT in because their starter was hurt. Again, I like him, I think he has a lot of talent and potential to be a near double digit sack guy or a double digit sack guy but at this point I just don't see it in his game. He hasn't shown the effort or consistency to be that guy yet, maybe he gets there this year but at this point I have to question that. I think it's more likely he's a guy who gets a round 5 sacks - give or take a few - rather than a guy who gets around 10 sacks - give or take a few.

The reason I still give Cravens one sack - and I even contemplated giving him 2 - is because he was successful last year as a blitzer and I think Manusky will still find ways to use Cravens as a blitzer. Even if Cravens is blitzing more from the safety position rather than the ILB position, I still think he'll get a sack or two. Also, there's nothing to say right now that on 3rd and long Cravens won't once again be playing closer to the line of scrimmage - like last year - and we'll bring in someone else to play his normal safety position and go with the "cobra" or 3 safety look that we used to run when Chris Horton was in his rookie season.

Anyways, that's what I'd do with Cravens. I'd move him closer to the line on 3rd and long and bring in an extra DB/S - whether that's Blackmon, Hall or Everett, whomever makes the team - to play the deeper safety spot while Mason Foster comes off the field and Cravens takes his spot next to Brown as the dime ILB.
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Last edited by turtle28 on Thu May 04, 2017 12:35 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Doc Draper


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

we had 38 sacks last year and only gave up 23 so that is pretty good.


Name Last year Projection
Kerrigan 11 11
Murphy 9 4
Miss Prissy 4.5 4
Baker 3.5

a bunch of other guys had a total of 11

Gallette 0 11
Anderson 0 6
Allen 0 5
Lanier 0 3
Cravens 1 4
other guys 5
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doc Draper wrote:
we had 38 sacks last year and only gave up 23 so that is pretty good.


Name Last year Projection
Kerrigan 11 11
Murphy 9 4
Miss Prissy 4.5 4
Baker 3.5

a bunch of other guys had a total of 11

Gallette 0 11
Anderson 0 6
Allen 0 5
Lanier 0 3
Cravens 1 4
other guys 5


So you have us at 53 sacks, right? With Galette getting 11? Shocked

I have a hard time believing that will happen, last year the most any team had was Arizona with 48. I have to question Galette getting 11 and Cravens getting as many as 4 while playing most S this year and Lanier getting 3 when he's only going to be a rotational guy but, you could be right.
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dee Ford

2014 - 1.5 sacks
2015 - 4.0 sacks
2016 - 10.0 sacks

Whitney Mercilus

2012 - 6.0 sacks
2013 - 7.0 sacks
2014 - 5.0 sacks
2015 - 12.0 sacks

Nick Perry

2012 - 2.0 sacks
2013 - 4.0 sacks
2014 - 3.0 sacks
2015 - 3.5 sacks
2016 - 11.0 sacks

It sometimes takes time for young pass rushers to develop in the NFL. Trent Murphy made a sizeable jump in his 3rd year last year, but I'm skeptical of his ascension due to his drug suspension. I need to see him continue to produce at a high level before I'm a believer. I'm hoping Preston Smith takes that next step this year. It would suck to have spent 3 second round picks on edge rushers and not be able to find one double digit sack artist out of the group.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MKnight82 wrote:
Dee Ford

2014 - 1.5 sacks
2015 - 4.0 sacks
2016 - 10.0 sacks

Whitney Mercilus

2012 - 6.0 sacks
2013 - 7.0 sacks
2014 - 5.0 sacks
2015 - 12.0 sacks

Nick Perry

2012 - 2.0 sacks
2013 - 4.0 sacks
2014 - 3.0 sacks
2015 - 3.5 sacks
2016 - 11.0 sacks

It sometimes takes time for young pass rushers to develop in the NFL. Trent Murphy made a sizeable jump in his 3rd year last year, but I'm skeptical of his ascension due to his drug suspension. I need to see him continue to produce at a high level before I'm a believer. I'm hoping Preston Smith takes that next step this year. It would suck to have spent 3 second round picks on edge rushers and not be able to find one double digit sack artist out of the group.
Yeah, I hear ya and agree. I think the one thing that could keep Smith from getting there is totally out of his control though, and that is if Galette is healthy this year.

I certainly won't hold it against Smith if he doesn't beat out Galette, and Galette ends up having more sacks than Smith does on the season. The only way I'll be disappointed in Smith is if he doesn't do better in his run defense and pass rush than he did last year when he's on the field. When smith is on the field, I want to see him hustling and flying around to the ball like Kerrigan and Murphy do, which is something we haven't seen out of Smith so far in his career. His effort has been inconsistent which, is the most disappointing part of his career so far.
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HTTRG3Dynasty


Joined: 03 Apr 2012
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
Kerrigan: 14 sacks - benefits tremendously from the attention Allen gets
Smith: 9 sacks - rebounds from sophomore slump
Allen: 8 sacks - ROTY candidate
Anderson: 5 sacks - gets the most playing time of any of the OLB backups
Murphy: 4 sacks - loses playing time to Anderson
Brown: 4 sacks - has pretty consistently gotten 4 sacks per year in career
McClain: 3 sacks - 2nd most productive front 3 player
Foster: 2 sacks - had 1 last year, benefits from new front
McGee: 1 sacks - mostly a run stuff, gets lucky once
Cravens: 0 sack - only had 1 last year, and we're moving him back further away from the LOS
Hood: 0 sack - doesn't see as much playing time this year.
Galette: 0 sacks - doesn't make roster
I can't totally disagree with your prediction, because who knows, we are just guessing, but I have a hard time believing that Allen will get 2 less sacks in his rookie season than what Leonard Williams has gotten in his first two seasons in the NFL which is 10.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I'd be shocked if it did.


I can't remember where I read or heard it, but it's been said that Allen is better against the pass than Williams, while Williams was better against the run. Though both are very good at each.

The stats reflect this as well: Allen had 22.5 sacks his last two years in college. Williams had 12.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
Kerrigan: 14 sacks - benefits tremendously from the attention Allen gets
Smith: 9 sacks - rebounds from sophomore slump
Allen: 8 sacks - ROTY candidate
Anderson: 5 sacks - gets the most playing time of any of the OLB backups
Murphy: 4 sacks - loses playing time to Anderson
Brown: 4 sacks - has pretty consistently gotten 4 sacks per year in career
McClain: 3 sacks - 2nd most productive front 3 player
Foster: 2 sacks - had 1 last year, benefits from new front
McGee: 1 sacks - mostly a run stuff, gets lucky once
Cravens: 0 sack - only had 1 last year, and we're moving him back further away from the LOS
Hood: 0 sack - doesn't see as much playing time this year.
Galette: 0 sacks - doesn't make roster
I can't totally disagree with your prediction, because who knows, we are just guessing, but I have a hard time believing that Allen will get 2 less sacks in his rookie season than what Leonard Williams has gotten in his first two seasons in the NFL which is 10.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I'd be shocked if it did.


I can't remember where I read or heard it, but it's been said that Allen is better against the pass than Williams, while Williams was better against the run. Though both are very good at each.

The stats reflect this as well: Allen had 22.5 sacks his last two years in college. Williams had 12.
Thats cool, and I believe it. I'd love to see Allen get more than 5 or 6 as a rookie - I predicted 6 - I just can't predict 8, honestly.

One other thing to consider is that JJ Watt only had 5.5 sacks as a rookie, so MKnight predicted that Allen would have 2.5 more sacks than JJ Watt as a rookie, and I just can't agree with that prediction.

Williams did only have 3 sacks as a rookie, but in his second year he had 7. I think it's most likely that Allen does something similar but maybe gets a few more than Williams in each season. Like Allen gets 5 or 6 as a rookie, and 8 to 10 in his second year.
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HTTRG3Dynasty


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
Kerrigan: 14 sacks - benefits tremendously from the attention Allen gets
Smith: 9 sacks - rebounds from sophomore slump
Allen: 8 sacks - ROTY candidate
Anderson: 5 sacks - gets the most playing time of any of the OLB backups
Murphy: 4 sacks - loses playing time to Anderson
Brown: 4 sacks - has pretty consistently gotten 4 sacks per year in career
McClain: 3 sacks - 2nd most productive front 3 player
Foster: 2 sacks - had 1 last year, benefits from new front
McGee: 1 sacks - mostly a run stuff, gets lucky once
Cravens: 0 sack - only had 1 last year, and we're moving him back further away from the LOS
Hood: 0 sack - doesn't see as much playing time this year.
Galette: 0 sacks - doesn't make roster
I can't totally disagree with your prediction, because who knows, we are just guessing, but I have a hard time believing that Allen will get 2 less sacks in his rookie season than what Leonard Williams has gotten in his first two seasons in the NFL which is 10.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I'd be shocked if it did.


I can't remember where I read or heard it, but it's been said that Allen is better against the pass than Williams, while Williams was better against the run. Though both are very good at each.

The stats reflect this as well: Allen had 22.5 sacks his last two years in college. Williams had 12.
Thats cool, and I believe it. I'd love to Allen get more thsn 5 or 6 - I predicted 6 - I just can't predict 8, honestly.

One other thing to consider is that JJ Watt only had 5.5 sacks as a rookie, so MKnight predicted that Allen would have 2.5 more sacks than JJ Watt as a rookie, and I just can't agree with that prediction.

Williams did only have 3 sacks as a rookie, but in his second year he had 7. I think it's most likely that Allen does something similar but maybe gets a few more than Williams in each season. Like Allen gets 5 or 6 as a rookie, and 8 to 10 in his second year.


JJ Watt wasn't as good of a prospect coming out as Allen was. It took him time to develop into what he would eventually become, so that's not a great comparison. Ndamukong Suh had 10 sacks as a rookie. 8 for Allen is definitely do-able.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
Kerrigan: 14 sacks - benefits tremendously from the attention Allen gets
Smith: 9 sacks - rebounds from sophomore slump
Allen: 8 sacks - ROTY candidate
Anderson: 5 sacks - gets the most playing time of any of the OLB backups
Murphy: 4 sacks - loses playing time to Anderson
Brown: 4 sacks - has pretty consistently gotten 4 sacks per year in career
McClain: 3 sacks - 2nd most productive front 3 player
Foster: 2 sacks - had 1 last year, benefits from new front
McGee: 1 sacks - mostly a run stuff, gets lucky once
Cravens: 0 sack - only had 1 last year, and we're moving him back further away from the LOS
Hood: 0 sack - doesn't see as much playing time this year.
Galette: 0 sacks - doesn't make roster
I can't totally disagree with your prediction, because who knows, we are just guessing, but I have a hard time believing that Allen will get 2 less sacks in his rookie season than what Leonard Williams has gotten in his first two seasons in the NFL which is 10.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I'd be shocked if it did.


I can't remember where I read or heard it, but it's been said that Allen is better against the pass than Williams, while Williams was better against the run. Though both are very good at each.

The stats reflect this as well: Allen had 22.5 sacks his last two years in college. Williams had 12.
Thats cool, and I believe it. I'd love to Allen get more thsn 5 or 6 - I predicted 6 - I just can't predict 8, honestly.

One other thing to consider is that JJ Watt only had 5.5 sacks as a rookie, so MKnight predicted that Allen would have 2.5 more sacks than JJ Watt as a rookie, and I just can't agree with that prediction.

Williams did only have 3 sacks as a rookie, but in his second year he had 7. I think it's most likely that Allen does something similar but maybe gets a few more than Williams in each season. Like Allen gets 5 or 6 as a rookie, and 8 to 10 in his second year.


JJ Watt wasn't as good of a prospect coming out as Allen was. It took him time to develop into what he would eventually become, so that's not a great comparison. Ndamukong Suh had 10 sacks as a rookie. 8 for Allen is definitely do-able.
As a pass rusher, JJ Watt was maybe not quite what Allen currently is coming into the league but, I think a lot of people slept on Watt as a prospect, I know I did for sure. I liked Watt as a prospect, I just didn't think he should go as high as he did ok draft day. If we had stayed put at 10, I would have advocated for us taking a Robert Quinn over Watt. Also, if Watt was available when we selected after our trade down, I would have wanted him over Kerrigan. I had both Watt and Kerrigan pegged as guys who would go in the late teens or early 20.

I'm definitely not saying that Allen getting 8 sacks as a rookie isn't do-able, but I don't know, I have a hard time predicting it, mostly I'd say because things never seem to work out that well for the Redskins, or any other D.C. Sports franchise for that matter.
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MKnight82


Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
Kerrigan: 14 sacks - benefits tremendously from the attention Allen gets
Smith: 9 sacks - rebounds from sophomore slump
Allen: 8 sacks - ROTY candidate
Anderson: 5 sacks - gets the most playing time of any of the OLB backups
Murphy: 4 sacks - loses playing time to Anderson
Brown: 4 sacks - has pretty consistently gotten 4 sacks per year in career
McClain: 3 sacks - 2nd most productive front 3 player
Foster: 2 sacks - had 1 last year, benefits from new front
McGee: 1 sacks - mostly a run stuff, gets lucky once
Cravens: 0 sack - only had 1 last year, and we're moving him back further away from the LOS
Hood: 0 sack - doesn't see as much playing time this year.
Galette: 0 sacks - doesn't make roster
I can't totally disagree with your prediction, because who knows, we are just guessing, but I have a hard time believing that Allen will get 2 less sacks in his rookie season than what Leonard Williams has gotten in his first two seasons in the NFL which is 10.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I'd be shocked if it did.


I can't remember where I read or heard it, but it's been said that Allen is better against the pass than Williams, while Williams was better against the run. Though both are very good at each.

The stats reflect this as well: Allen had 22.5 sacks his last two years in college. Williams had 12.
Thats cool, and I believe it. I'd love to Allen get more thsn 5 or 6 - I predicted 6 - I just can't predict 8, honestly.

One other thing to consider is that JJ Watt only had 5.5 sacks as a rookie, so MKnight predicted that Allen would have 2.5 more sacks than JJ Watt as a rookie, and I just can't agree with that prediction.

Williams did only have 3 sacks as a rookie, but in his second year he had 7. I think it's most likely that Allen does something similar but maybe gets a few more than Williams in each season. Like Allen gets 5 or 6 as a rookie, and 8 to 10 in his second year.


JJ Watt wasn't as good of a prospect coming out as Allen was. It took him time to develop into what he would eventually become, so that's not a great comparison. Ndamukong Suh had 10 sacks as a rookie. 8 for Allen is definitely do-able.
As a pass rusher, JJ Watt was maybe not quite what Allen currently is coming into the league but, I think a lot of people slept on Watt as a prospect, I know I did for sure. I liked Watt as a prospect, I just didn't think he should go as high as he did ok draft day. If we had stayed put at 10, I would have advocated for us taking a Robert Quinn over Watt. Also, if Watt was available when we selected after our trade down, I would have wanted him over Kerrigan. I had both Watt and Kerrigan pegged as guys who would go in the late teens or early 20.

I'm definitely not saying that Allen getting 8 sacks as a rookie isn't do-able, but I don't know, I have a hard time predicting it, mostly I'd say because things never seem to work out that well for the Redskins, or any other D.C. Sports franchise for that matter.
A lot of people were scared off by Watt because they compared him to Adam Carriker who was a pretty big bust for the Rams. I know I wanted Quinn more than Watt in that draft.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MKnight82 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
Kerrigan: 14 sacks - benefits tremendously from the attention Allen gets
Smith: 9 sacks - rebounds from sophomore slump
Allen: 8 sacks - ROTY candidate
Anderson: 5 sacks - gets the most playing time of any of the OLB backups
Murphy: 4 sacks - loses playing time to Anderson
Brown: 4 sacks - has pretty consistently gotten 4 sacks per year in career
McClain: 3 sacks - 2nd most productive front 3 player
Foster: 2 sacks - had 1 last year, benefits from new front
McGee: 1 sacks - mostly a run stuff, gets lucky once
Cravens: 0 sack - only had 1 last year, and we're moving him back further away from the LOS
Hood: 0 sack - doesn't see as much playing time this year.
Galette: 0 sacks - doesn't make roster
I can't totally disagree with your prediction, because who knows, we are just guessing, but I have a hard time believing that Allen will get 2 less sacks in his rookie season than what Leonard Williams has gotten in his first two seasons in the NFL which is 10.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I'd be shocked if it did.


I can't remember where I read or heard it, but it's been said that Allen is better against the pass than Williams, while Williams was better against the run. Though both are very good at each.

The stats reflect this as well: Allen had 22.5 sacks his last two years in college. Williams had 12.
Thats cool, and I believe it. I'd love to Allen get more thsn 5 or 6 - I predicted 6 - I just can't predict 8, honestly.

One other thing to consider is that JJ Watt only had 5.5 sacks as a rookie, so MKnight predicted that Allen would have 2.5 more sacks than JJ Watt as a rookie, and I just can't agree with that prediction.

Williams did only have 3 sacks as a rookie, but in his second year he had 7. I think it's most likely that Allen does something similar but maybe gets a few more than Williams in each season. Like Allen gets 5 or 6 as a rookie, and 8 to 10 in his second year.


JJ Watt wasn't as good of a prospect coming out as Allen was. It took him time to develop into what he would eventually become, so that's not a great comparison. Ndamukong Suh had 10 sacks as a rookie. 8 for Allen is definitely do-able.
As a pass rusher, JJ Watt was maybe not quite what Allen currently is coming into the league but, I think a lot of people slept on Watt as a prospect, I know I did for sure. I liked Watt as a prospect, I just didn't think he should go as high as he did ok draft day. If we had stayed put at 10, I would have advocated for us taking a Robert Quinn over Watt. Also, if Watt was available when we selected after our trade down, I would have wanted him over Kerrigan. I had both Watt and Kerrigan pegged as guys who would go in the late teens or early 20.

I'm definitely not saying that Allen getting 8 sacks as a rookie isn't do-able, but I don't know, I have a hard time predicting it, mostly I'd say because things never seem to work out that well for the Redskins, or any other D.C. Sports franchise for that matter.
A lot of people were scared off by Watt because they compared him to Adam Carriker who was a pretty big bust for the Rams. I know I wanted Quinn more than Watt in that draft.
True, some probably did,I didn't. I knew he was more athletic. Watt would play as a DE in the 4-3 scheme also. A better comparison would be like a Brett Kissel, Aaron Smith, Darnell Dockett, Justin Tuck, Richard Seymour, Randy Starks, Shaun Ellis or Justin Smith type DE who were good pass rushers from the 4-3 DT or 3-4 DE position. Guys that had the athleticism and size to play either position.
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