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2017 QB Thread - Version II
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6681
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

candyman93 wrote:
Senor Mortgage wrote:
Crickett wrote:
I think all of the QB's drafted in the first round are going to be busts.

This reminds me of 2011 where the QB's have obvious flaws but everyone is ignoring them because teams need QB's. And like 2011, I'm sure I'll be wrong about one of them; I just don't know which one.


This so much. I'd have Watson off my board (or a late round pick) because I don't think he has a NFL arm. Mahomes doesn't know how to play football. Kizer has slowest processing speed I've seen in years and isn't that accurate (my two most important QB traits). Mitch lacks experience and didn't play super well in big games/under pressure (aka looks good against bad competition) but he's the only one that I can do the mental gymnastics for as a first rounder. Peterman might be my favorite of the group but he may have Dalton upside.

As you said, I'll be wrong on one of those guys but with pretty much every other position (outside of maybe edge rush) full of really good prospects, I can't justify the low odds of a QB this year.


Watsons arm strength makes him borderline undraftable for me.


I swear to God if you cite the MPH from the Combine...
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allowed 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears were 36-7
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brownie man


Joined: 26 Jan 2008
Posts: 8103
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really think Josh Dobbs reminds me of Spergon Wynn
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My Favorite Guys This draft
Deshone Kizer, Malik Hooker, Carlos Watkins, Adoree Jackson, Budda Baker, TJ Watt, Montravius Adams, Ryan Switzer, Kendall Beckwith, Davis Webb, Des Lawrence, Shelton Gibson, Jamaal Williams, Bucky Hodges
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candyman93


Joined: 02 Dec 2009
Posts: 58075
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
candyman93 wrote:
Senor Mortgage wrote:
Crickett wrote:
I think all of the QB's drafted in the first round are going to be busts.

This reminds me of 2011 where the QB's have obvious flaws but everyone is ignoring them because teams need QB's. And like 2011, I'm sure I'll be wrong about one of them; I just don't know which one.


This so much. I'd have Watson off my board (or a late round pick) because I don't think he has a NFL arm. Mahomes doesn't know how to play football. Kizer has slowest processing speed I've seen in years and isn't that accurate (my two most important QB traits). Mitch lacks experience and didn't play super well in big games/under pressure (aka looks good against bad competition) but he's the only one that I can do the mental gymnastics for as a first rounder. Peterman might be my favorite of the group but he may have Dalton upside.

As you said, I'll be wrong on one of those guys but with pretty much every other position (outside of maybe edge rush) full of really good prospects, I can't justify the low odds of a QB this year.


Watsons arm strength makes him borderline undraftable for me.


I swear to God if you cite the MPH from the Combine...


I'm not basing it off of that. From what I've seen he has a weak arm.
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
Posts: 6681
Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

candyman93 wrote:
G08 wrote:
candyman93 wrote:
Senor Mortgage wrote:
Crickett wrote:
I think all of the QB's drafted in the first round are going to be busts.

This reminds me of 2011 where the QB's have obvious flaws but everyone is ignoring them because teams need QB's. And like 2011, I'm sure I'll be wrong about one of them; I just don't know which one.


This so much. I'd have Watson off my board (or a late round pick) because I don't think he has a NFL arm. Mahomes doesn't know how to play football. Kizer has slowest processing speed I've seen in years and isn't that accurate (my two most important QB traits). Mitch lacks experience and didn't play super well in big games/under pressure (aka looks good against bad competition) but he's the only one that I can do the mental gymnastics for as a first rounder. Peterman might be my favorite of the group but he may have Dalton upside.

As you said, I'll be wrong on one of those guys but with pretty much every other position (outside of maybe edge rush) full of really good prospects, I can't justify the low odds of a QB this year.


Watsons arm strength makes him borderline undraftable for me.


I swear to God if you cite the MPH from the Combine...


I'm not basing it off of that. From what I've seen he has a weak arm.


Very much in disagreement here. Is his elite? No, not at all.

He can get it 58-60 yards downfield without much of an issue, and he can rip it to the sidelines when he needs to -- no worry here from me.
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allowed 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears were 36-7
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Iamcanadian


Joined: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 69
Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd say all 5 QB's in Mayock's rankings have a decent arm as to strength, Mahomes has an elite arm. Non of the 5 have a weak arm.

However, after that, they each have some strengths and weaknesses. When you examine them all, Trubisky has the least flaws except he lacks experience, which is why he will likely be taken as the first QB drafted. When you have skill and mental strength all the rest will usually take care of itself. Watson is either #1 or likely #2 overall as leadership is a huge trait for NFL QB's and performance in big games counts for a lot.

Mahomes will most likely go 3rd overall as his weaknesses are more serious, but perhaps correctable over time. Pocket presence and when to throw a pass without risk are pretty serious flaws, but he is coachable and may overcome his tendency to leave the pocket way too soon and throw a lot of balls into solid coverage, risking a turnover. That arm will be attractive to a lot of teams.

i think Kizer and and Webb will likely be 2nd rounders although some team may trade up to late round 1 for them.
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Calvin-Stafford


Joined: 29 Dec 2013
Posts: 1761
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On Watson's arm, I think it's adequate. When his feet are set and his mechanics are sound he can make any throw you ask him to. It's not a plus for his game though IMO.
Iamcanadian wrote:
When you examine them all, Trubisky has the least flaws except he lacks experience, which is why he will likely be taken as the first QB drafted.

Lacking experience is a major red flag. Craptons of QBs look really good their first year starting and then go on to reveal massive flaws in their game their second and third years. The fact that defensive coordinators had to go in cold on Trubisky as opposed to getting another year of film study to potentially attack his weak points and force him to evolve his game is a major advantage for him and a major disadvantage for NFL scouts trying to evaluate him.
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Epyon


Joined: 02 Jan 2013
Posts: 407
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Calvin-Stafford wrote:
On Watson's arm, I think it's adequate. When his feet are set and his mechanics are sound he can make any throw you ask him to. It's not a plus for his game though IMO.
Iamcanadian wrote:
When you examine them all, Trubisky has the least flaws except he lacks experience, which is why he will likely be taken as the first QB drafted.

Lacking experience is a major red flag. Craptons of QBs look really good their first year starting and then go on to reveal massive flaws in their game their second and third years. The fact that defensive coordinators had to go in cold on Trubisky as opposed to getting another year of film study to potentially attack his weak points and force him to evolve his game is a major advantage for him and a major disadvantage for NFL scouts trying to evaluate him.


Not to mention that one of Trubisky's only games is basically completely useless for film study via hurricane conditions.

As for Watson's arm, I think it should justifiably scare teams/scouts perhaps more than it reportedly does... because I think it's symptomatic of where many of his problems arise. The combine velocity in itself would make him undraftable, but there are reports that his actual film is a bit higher, in the very low 50s, which is still statistically poor for an NFL level thrower.

"2 mph ball velocity might not seem like a big deal, but it translates to 3 ft travelled on 20 yd throw in same time frame. Huge NFL window" was a quote off twitter after Watson's combine number came out.... trusting for a moment that the math is correct.... and even a low 50s result for Watson is creating multi foot (or even yard) window on his throws for NFL level DBs to take advantage of. The windows in the NFL are smaller, not larger than they are in college ball... Granted, Watson is still my #2 QB behind Mahomes, but I think there's a real possibility he ends up having to run a KC style offense that does everything in it's power to avoid pushing the ball downfield.
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Ragnarok


Joined: 17 Oct 2016
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When was the last time a college QB with only one year of starting experience became a franchise QB?
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ragnarok wrote:
When was the last time a college QB with only one year of starting experience became a franchise QB?
Cam Newton
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Ragnarok


Joined: 17 Oct 2016
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
Ragnarok wrote:
When was the last time a college QB with only one year of starting experience became a franchise QB?
Cam Newton


Didn't he lead his JUCO team to a national championship?
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jg77


Joined: 03 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ragnarok wrote:
justo wrote:
Ragnarok wrote:
When was the last time a college QB with only one year of starting experience became a franchise QB?
Cam Newton


Didn't he lead his JUCO team to a national championship?


He's also a physical specimen which none of these guys are.
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
Posts: 3021
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I say this from a team that still doesn't have a clear idea of who our long-term guy is yet (although we're still early, too early to recommit) - I have no idea which guy I'd target if I needed to win long-term. It's like a 3-4 sided coin toss. I'm glad DEN doesn't have to make that call (and again, Lynch is nowhere near ready to show us he's our long term answer, but I don't know that I'd want to invest the resources necessary for any of the guys at our slot, either).

Gun to my head, I'll say Mahomes...but I'll probably be completely wrong on him. Watson's biggest issue IMO is that he's not elite enough in any one area, nor polished in his read/progressions/accuracy to tell me he'll succeed beyond that dreaded "OK but not great" level. Probably the safest floor, but lower ceiling than Trubinsky. And that's before any injury slows Watson down.

Kizer shouldn't be a Day 1 selection IMO. Too much developmental time needed - he probably needs the Lynch+ treatment (total redshirt year, if not a 2nd). It's unfair, but nowadays if you need more than 1 year of learning on the job before taking over, that's just not great return for the risk associated with busting (which this skill set has a much higher risk profile).

If you need a capable backup, though, this isn't a bad class. The depth is better overall than its top end appeal.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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gah112


Joined: 30 Jan 2015
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This class reminds me a bit of 2014. The top guys have different skill-sets and none of them are consensus top players in the draft. Picking one of these QBs in the top 10 seems risky - you could get a Carr or you could get a Bortles/Manziel.
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G08


Joined: 28 Feb 2011
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Location: World Championsville
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gah112 wrote:
This class reminds me a bit of 2014. The top guys have different skill-sets and none of them are consensus top players in the draft. Picking one of these QBs in the top 10 seems risky - you could get a Carr or you could get a Bortles/Manziel.


I think Watson with a promise that he gets a "redshirt" year to work on learning an NFL offense/reading NFL defenses/his mechanics offers you the highest upside. All the intangibles are there, college production against elite opponents is there, and he's a National Champion.

(anxiously awaits the first Tebow numbskull to surface...)
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topwop1 wrote:
My point is you can find a franchise guy like [Derek] Carr in every draft

jrry32 wrote:
apples

When the defense allowed 20 pts or fewer, the Cutler-led Bears were 36-7
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gah112


Joined: 30 Jan 2015
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Watson's well behind several of the other top prospects in terms of arm talent. He's not as accurate as Mahomes or Trubisky.

I have a hard time saying he has the most potential of any of these guys when he doesn't stand out as being the best in any tangible way. In fact, some of the intangible qualities most important to playing the position (ability to see the field and process information quickly) appear to be weaknesses for him.
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