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NFL Garbage Time

 
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skibrett15


Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 2483
Location: nibelheim
PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:16 pm    Post subject: NFL Garbage Time Reply with quote

Hey Y'all

I wrote a piece for Football Outsiders on garbage time in the NFL, and the effect on predictive quality of NFL wins from season to season.

Check it out. (And defend me in NFL gen)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/presenting-adjusted-pythagorean-theorem
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NCPackFan


Joined: 12 Jan 2013
Posts: 4383
Location: Quahog, RI
PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thank you for sharing! Smile
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CentralFC


Joined: 03 Feb 2011
Posts: 11410
PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:45 pm    Post subject: Re: NFL Garbage Time Reply with quote

skibrett15 wrote:
Hey Y'all

I wrote a piece for Football Outsiders on garbage time in the NFL, and the effect on predictive quality of NFL wins from season to season.

Check it out. (And defend me in NFL gen)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/presenting-adjusted-pythagorean-theorem


Really phenomenal work on that. Well-written, too.

Applause
_________________
packerjmf wrote:
GWH87 wrote:
Somebody take the off season shovel out of Ted's hands & bury him in his own hole.

How can he dig a hole if he's too busy sitting on his hands?
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skibrett15


Joined: 10 Jan 2006
Posts: 2483
Location: nibelheim
PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For a packers specific slant... GB ran up the score (salted the game away) to the tune of 10 points vs Seattle and Philadelphia, but they also surrendered 13 garbage time points while getting blown out vs Ten, Washington, and Dallas.

Based on Pythagorean, GB outperformed in record by a little less than 1 win. This would typically suggest that if the season goes the same way next year (hopefully healthier!) they would stand to regress by 1-2 wins on average.


Of course... for various reasons things won't be equal. Additionally, Pythagorean is known to underestimate franchise QBs and winning teams. These teams typically outperform their "pythagorean expectation" year after year... because well, AR12 is a stud.
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NormSizedMidget


Joined: 28 Mar 2011
Posts: 17375
PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is pretty great Brett. Thanks.
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Cadmus


Joined: 22 Apr 2013
Posts: 2185
PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 11:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This was an awesome read ski.

Thanks.
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