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Wolf6151 2017 mock draft

 
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Wolf6151


Joined: 11 Feb 2008
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Location: Pearland, Texas
PostPosted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 4:52 am    Post subject: Wolf6151 2017 mock draft Reply with quote

My 1st attempt at a 2017 mock. This is what I would do as Texans GM, I have no idea what Rick McNair will do.

1. Zach Cunningham-ILB/OLB, Speed and length to handle pass coverage duties on TE's and RB's, sideline to sideline speed to play the run or blitz the QB. Cushing's replacement.
2. Dion Dawkins-OT, Great positional size and athleticism with strength to block in the run game. If he's not available then pick is Roderick Johnson.
3. Davis Webb-QB, all college QB's are projects when reaching the NFL. Webb has the size and arm strength that I think O'Brien likes, hopefully he's given time to learn the rest. He's not a runner, more of a traditional pocket passer, but he's athletic enough.
4. Jordan Leggett-TE, I like big TE's and we need depth at the position. I'm not sold on Ryan Griffin and wouldn't have re-signed him.
4b. Shaquill Griffin-CB, with Joseph, Jackson, and Johnson ahead of him, he'll have mentors and time to learn. 4.38 speed, he can learn the rest. Depth in the secondary since we lost Bouye in FA.
5. Ben Braden-OG, athletic OG. I've read speculation that he can play OT, utility O-lineman, O-line depth after losing Aboushi to FA.
7. Josh Tupou-DT, rotational NT depth behind Reader, a big guy to absorb blockers and free up our pass rushers and stuff the run.
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PAtexansFAN99


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 02, 2017 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wouldn't mind this, except I'm not a huge fan of the Davis Webb pick based on how the early part of the draft plays out. We get Dawkins to shore up the OL, but Cunningham is sort of a luxury pick for us so I expect us to look for immediate contributors in rounds 3-5 or so if we take him at 25. I'd rather take a DB than Webb based on this scenario. Maybe Rasul Douglas who'll probably be there, or maybe one of the safeties falls to us there.
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EliteTexan80


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anything other than QB at 25 (or earlier) and I'm done. Cunningham is a nice player, but the gaping hole at QB can't be ignored anymore, and you can't keep on trying to hit with low value picks and/or bargain bin free agents.

Bite the bullet, Mahomes or Trubisky. If they work out, crisis at QB is averted for a decade. If not, fire everyone for letting it get to this point.

For ILB, I'd like to see the Texans go with Ben Boulware out of Clemson. (3rd or 4th round, I'd wager). Doesn't have the measurables everyone falls for, but he's instinctive and plays with an edge. Reminds me a bit of Kiko Alonzo, could be a good value pickup who gets better with a few seasons of experience...
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amazingandre


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

EliteTexan80 wrote:
Anything other than QB at 25 (or earlier) and I'm done. Cunningham is a nice player, but the gaping hole at QB can't be ignored anymore, and you can't keep on trying to hit with low value picks and/or bargain bin free agents.

Bite the bullet, Mahomes or Trubisky. If they work out, crisis at QB is averted for a decade. If not, fire everyone for letting it get to this point.

For ILB, I'd like to see the Texans go with Ben Boulware out of Clemson. (3rd or 4th round, I'd wager). Doesn't have the measurables everyone falls for, but he's instinctive and plays with an edge. Reminds me a bit of Kiko Alonzo, could be a good value pickup who gets better with a few seasons of experience...


At this point I agree, we have to come away with a QB in round 1. To Wolfs credit, he made this prior to knowing we had 0% of getting Romo....
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EliteTexan80


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amazingandre wrote:
EliteTexan80 wrote:
Anything other than QB at 25 (or earlier) and I'm done. Cunningham is a nice player, but the gaping hole at QB can't be ignored anymore, and you can't keep on trying to hit with low value picks and/or bargain bin free agents.

Bite the bullet, Mahomes or Trubisky. If they work out, crisis at QB is averted for a decade. If not, fire everyone for letting it get to this point.

For ILB, I'd like to see the Texans go with Ben Boulware out of Clemson. (3rd or 4th round, I'd wager). Doesn't have the measurables everyone falls for, but he's instinctive and plays with an edge. Reminds me a bit of Kiko Alonzo, could be a good value pickup who gets better with a few seasons of experience...


At this point I agree, we have to come away with a QB in round 1. To Wolfs credit, he made this prior to knowing we had 0% of getting Romo....


Very true.

Missed you, buddy. Very Happy
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amazingandre


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EliteTexan80 wrote:
amazingandre wrote:
EliteTexan80 wrote:
Anything other than QB at 25 (or earlier) and I'm done. Cunningham is a nice player, but the gaping hole at QB can't be ignored anymore, and you can't keep on trying to hit with low value picks and/or bargain bin free agents.

Bite the bullet, Mahomes or Trubisky. If they work out, crisis at QB is averted for a decade. If not, fire everyone for letting it get to this point.

For ILB, I'd like to see the Texans go with Ben Boulware out of Clemson. (3rd or 4th round, I'd wager). Doesn't have the measurables everyone falls for, but he's instinctive and plays with an edge. Reminds me a bit of Kiko Alonzo, could be a good value pickup who gets better with a few seasons of experience...


At this point I agree, we have to come away with a QB in round 1. To Wolfs credit, he made this prior to knowing we had 0% of getting Romo....


Very true.

Missed you, buddy. Very Happy


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PAtexansFAN99


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EliteTexan80 wrote:
Anything other than QB at 25 (or earlier) and I'm done. Cunningham is a nice player, but the gaping hole at QB can't be ignored anymore, and you can't keep on trying to hit with low value picks and/or bargain bin free agents.

Bite the bullet, Mahomes or Trubisky. If they work out, crisis at QB is averted for a decade. If not, fire everyone for letting it get to this point.


I don't think it's like an either or type proposition. I think if you're trading up to go get a Qb, or even picking one at #25, you'd better be in love. Nobody is talking about Brad Kaaya, and there's like a 99% chance he's still on the board for our second round pick.

Yes, we need a QB, but usually more often than not, QBs fail. Very few QBs succeed relative to the # available, and there's not such a strong correlation between success & draft position. No matter if you trade, draft one, sign a FA, unless you're talking about one of the handful of elite QBs in the league, it's a shot in the dark.

That being said, we currently have 2 QBs who we know we can win games with. We've won multiple games with both of them before. Weeden happens to be a former first round pick, so if you really want a first round QB.. there it is. Brandon Weeden lol. Christian Ponder. Blaine Gabbert. RGIII, Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, etc. etc. Just some of the more recent ones.

If I were GM, I would only pick Watson at #25, and if Kizer, Mahomes, Trubisky are still available and Watson's not, I'd try and trade down and pick up a few extra picks, and then depending on which OL are left I might take a QB. The last thing this team needs is to waste a massive amount of resources finding a QB that's not a sure thing, which none of them are.

Savage with a chip on his shoulder and a full offseason as starter might be able to put it all together this season. I like his chances better than ANY rookie to be completely honest bc of how long he's been in the system now.

Kaaya in round 2 or 3, Jerod Evans in 3,4, or 5. There's no need to reach for a QB or scramble trying to trade up UNLESS they think one of these guys is THE GUY, then do whatever you gotta do.
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Wolf6151


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I want a QB as much as anyone else, but from what I hear, see, and read there are no QB's in this draft that should start day 1. There are no Andrew Luck's in this draft, and if there were we wouldn't get him at #25 anyway. Even the best QB's in this draft, Trubisky, Watson, Mahmoes, Kizer are still projects that will take time to learn and adapt to the NFL game. I think Trubisky and Watson will be gone by the time we pick and Mahomes and Kizer have ALOT of adapting to do. Webb or Peterman in the 3rd offer the same project level QB with better value in the 3rd than in the 1st. Again I want a QB as much as anyone, but I don't want to reach for one out of desperation just to say we took a 1st round QB that would normally have gone in the late 2nd or 3rd round. This mock was made with the assumption that we would be getting Romo, but even without him I don't want to reach out of desperation. That's a recipe for disaster.

Someone else mentioned that whenever we get a new QB we had better create a great O-line and running game to help him as much as possible. Dawkins, Moton, or Johnson in the 2nd should fix our need for a starting RT and then Braden or Eluemunor in the 5th should offer good quality O-line depth. The only change I might make to my mock would be a good RB in the 4th like Foreman or Perine. There's lots of good RB talent this year and RB's fall on draft day, someone good should be available in the 4th.

Depending on who's available and when, would anyone consider drafting 2 QB's this year like the Redskins did a few years ago?
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jch1911


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PAtexansFAN99 wrote:
EliteTexan80 wrote:
Anything other than QB at 25 (or earlier) and I'm done. Cunningham is a nice player, but the gaping hole at QB can't be ignored anymore, and you can't keep on trying to hit with low value picks and/or bargain bin free agents.

Bite the bullet, Mahomes or Trubisky. If they work out, crisis at QB is averted for a decade. If not, fire everyone for letting it get to this point.


I don't think it's like an either or type proposition. I think if you're trading up to go get a Qb, or even picking one at #25, you'd better be in love. Nobody is talking about Brad Kaaya, and there's like a 99% chance he's still on the board for our second round pick.

Yes, we need a QB, but usually more often than not, QBs fail. Very few QBs succeed relative to the # available, and there's not such a strong correlation between success & draft position. No matter if you trade, draft one, sign a FA, unless you're talking about one of the handful of elite QBs in the league, it's a shot in the dark.

That being said, we currently have 2 QBs who we know we can win games with. We've won multiple games with both of them before. Weeden happens to be a former first round pick, so if you really want a first round QB.. there it is. Brandon Weeden lol. Christian Ponder. Blaine Gabbert. RGIII, Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, etc. etc. Just some of the more recent ones.

If I were GM, I would only pick Watson at #25, and if Kizer, Mahomes, Trubisky are still available and Watson's not, I'd try and trade down and pick up a few extra picks, and then depending on which OL are left I might take a QB. The last thing this team needs is to waste a massive amount of resources finding a QB that's not a sure thing, which none of them are.

Savage with a chip on his shoulder and a full offseason as starter might be able to put it all together this season. I like his chances better than ANY rookie to be completely honest bc of how long he's been in the system now.

Kaaya in round 2 or 3, Jerod Evans in 3,4, or 5. There's no need to reach for a QB or scramble trying to trade up UNLESS they think one of these guys is THE GUY, then do whatever you gotta do.


I have recently become more of a huge Kaaya supporter. Played injured most of this past season, which helps explain his somewhat regression from 2 previous years. (Although his numbers tell a much different story.)

But I agree with PATexans on most of the points above. Any rookie we draft will probably not start this year or possibly even next - OB1 has intimated as such.

Also, I would be onboard with swapping pick positions with Green Bay for Brett Hundley as well (as long as it is reasonable). Something like our 4th round pick for their 5th round pick. He has had 2 years behind Aaron Rogers and might be ready for the big time. Plus check out this site
https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/introducing-semtex-new-way-look-college-production/
and their 2017 predictions
https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl/qbs-2017-nfl-draft-likely-succeed/
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EliteTexan80


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PAtexansFAN99 wrote:
I don't think it's like an either or type proposition. I think if you're trading up to go get a Qb, or even picking one at #25, you'd better be in love. Nobody is talking about Brad Kaaya, and there's like a 99% chance he's still on the board for our second round pick.

This is what I am going to call "the Garropolo effect".

Remember 2014? Texans sitting with the top pick, select Jadevion Clowney...then Blake Bortles is the "WTF!?" pick at 3rd overall, then Johnny Manziel is the "LOL" pick at 22, then the Vikings make the "DAMMIT!" pick with Teddy Bridgewater at 32...then the Texans select Xavier Sua Filo at 33, which led to Derek Carr at 34 and Jimmy Garropolo goes in the late 30s.

I firmly believe that the Texans saw their QB situation go into a spin at pick 3. The Texans were firmly tied with Bortles and Garropolo, but BOTH went well ahead where we anticipated.

Moral of the story - none of these QBs were very highly regarded coming out of college. Yet, all of them went in the top 64. When QBs are taken, there is a quick run on them, and you can't anticipate which team is looking for their next guy to groom. Same principle applies here in this draft; Expecting a guy to last to pick 50 in 2017 is as dangerous as waiting for pick 65 in 2014. If you're sitting there hoping that Kaaya drops to you at 50, you could find yourself reaching for Trevor Knight or Josh Dobbs with the last pick in the 4th round. I'd much rather reach for a top tier guy vs a mid rounder given our QB situation (which is very unique compared to the rest of the league - we have the worst QB situation in the NFL as of now).

Quote:
Yes, we need a QB, but usually more often than not, QBs fail. Very few QBs succeed relative to the # available, and there's not such a strong correlation between success & draft position. No matter if you trade, draft one, sign a FA, unless you're talking about one of the handful of elite QBs in the league, it's a shot in the dark.

Most of that lack of correlation has to do with a former 6th round pick who just won his fifth Super Bowl. Take that one anomaly out of the equation and...

- Two SBs for Ben Roethlensberger (11th pick overall)
- Two SBs for Peyton Manning (1st pick overall)
- Two SBs for Eli Manning (1st pick overall)
- One SB for Drew Brees (32nd pick overall)
- One SB for Aaron Rodgers (24th pick overall)
- One SB for Joe Flacco (18th pick overall)
- One SB for Russell Wilson (75th pick overall)

So, unless you really have faith in your QB prospecting skills in the 3rd or 6th rounds, you see the path to the Super Bowl lies with a 1st round QB.

Quote:
That being said, we currently have 2 QBs who we know we can win games with. We've won multiple games with both of them before.

The Texans are 18-14 over the past two seasons - Brandon Weeden won one start, Tom Savage one won start and lost one start. If you really want to tie your future into this, you're a braver person than I am.

Quote:
Weeden happens to be a former first round pick, so if you really want a first round QB.. there it is. Brandon Weeden lol. Christian Ponder. Blaine Gabbert. RGIII, Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, etc. etc. Just some of the more recent ones.

Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Andrew Luck, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz - see, I can name irrelevant QBs too!

I get what you're trying to sell. Thing is, the Texans lost the luxury of saying "oh well, other 1st round QBs have failed..." by not selecting a QB in the first round in over 10 years. Maybe THATs the problem. Trading for a guy hasn't worked, signing a big dollar FA hasn't worked - we know that firsthand.

Quote:
If I were GM, I would only pick Watson at #25, and if Kizer, Mahomes, Trubisky are still available and Watson's not, I'd try and trade down and pick up a few extra picks, and then depending on which OL are left I might take a QB. The last thing this team needs is to waste a massive amount of resources finding a QB that's not a sure thing, which none of them are.

For the most part, I'm OK with this - except my names of choice are Mahomes and Trubisky. My condition to this is as follows: the minute that Mahomes or Trubisky is off the board, the Texans need to be on the phone ASAP to get the following pick to ensure they get one of the two (see my above rant on "the Garropolo effect" and a potential run on QBs). Waiting for Kaaya to last to 50 is dangerous, given that QBs are a premium pick and a lot of top tier QBs are reaching a retirement age.

Quote:
Savage with a chip on his shoulder and a full offseason as starter might be able to put it all together this season. I like his chances better than ANY rookie to be completely honest bc of how long he's been in the system now.

Savage is more likely to have a chip IN his shoulder that will sideline him for 6-8 weeks. If he showed a propensity to stay healthy, I'd be more inclined. However, the guy has spent the majority of his career injured, which is amazing considering he's played less than 150 snaps in his career.

Quote:
Kaaya in round 2 or 3, Jerod Evans in 3,4, or 5. There's no need to reach for a QB or scramble trying to trade up UNLESS they think one of these guys is THE GUY, then do whatever you gotta do.

If we had a stable history of developing QBs, or had a veteran who can be depended on, I'd be willing to consider it. What, are we waiting for 2022 to finally draft a guy in the 1st? Can we be certain that there's not a run on QBs and Kaaya doesn't get selected at pick 49 by a team that knows we're drafting a QB? Are we really confident in this teams' ability to groom a very raw prospect such as Evans, given our track record of not really doing well with these young projects?

If you are, more power to you. Empirical evidence tells me that none of these things are remotely plausible.
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EliteTexan80


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wolf6151 wrote:
I want a QB as much as anyone else, but from what I hear, see, and read there are no QB's in this draft that should start day 1.

I'm not really pitching a day 1 starter. Show progress and a plan for 2018 is good enough for me, but I do believe there is a better possibility for Mahomes/Trubisky starting after a bye week vs Webb/Peterman starting after a bye week. Whoever is drafted is not our opening day starter - but you should have a plan to get a guy up and ready by the bye week or later, and I think the top level guys are more prepared to be that guy.

Quote:
There are no Andrew Luck's in this draft, and if there were we wouldn't get him at #25 anyway.

There's never going to be a Andrew Luck. There was a reason he was considered a once in a decade prospect. I'm content with a mid tier starter with upside to become an elite player in the league with some TLC, which could be had in this draft.

Quote:
Even the best QB's in this draft, Trubisky, Watson, Mahmoes, Kizer are still projects that will take time to learn and adapt to the NFL game. I think Trubisky and Watson will be gone by the time we pick and Mahomes and Kizer have ALOT of adapting to do. Webb or Peterman in the 3rd offer the same project level QB with better value in the 3rd than in the 1st.

Do not agree with this - there is a reason Webb had to transfer because he lost his starting job to Mahomes. There's a reason Peterman had to transfer because he lost his starting job to Josh Dobbs.

Quote:
Again I want a QB as much as anyone, but I don't want to reach for one out of desperation just to say we took a 1st round QB that would normally have gone in the late 2nd or 3rd round. This mock was made with the assumption that we would be getting Romo, but even without him I don't want to reach out of desperation. That's a recipe for disaster.

Part of me is in the "to save this village, you have to burn it down" mindset. If a first round QB works, then those responsible should be praised and lauded for it. If a first round QB doesn't work, it needs to be the anchor tied around the necks of those responsible to let them drown.

If we draft and fail in the 1st, at least we get to start "fresh" without Smith and O'Brien.

Quote:
Depending on who's available and when, would anyone consider drafting 2 QB's this year like the Redskins did a few years ago?

I'm actually OK with this.
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Wolf6151


Joined: 11 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

EliteTexan80 wrote:
If a first round QB works, then those responsible should be praised and lauded for it. If a first round QB doesn't work, it needs to be the anchor tied around the necks of those responsible to let them drown.

If we draft and fail in the 1st, at least we get to start "fresh" without Smith and O'Brien.


While I agree with the highlighted section above, the problem is I don't think it's Smith or O'Brien making the decision. I think McNair is the puppeteer and Smith is the highly paid marionette.
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jch1911


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wolf6151 wrote:
EliteTexan80 wrote:
If a first round QB works, then those responsible should be praised and lauded for it. If a first round QB doesn't work, it needs to be the anchor tied around the necks of those responsible to let them drown.

If we draft and fail in the 1st, at least we get to start "fresh" without Smith and O'Brien.


While I agree with the highlighted section above, the problem is I don't think it's Smith or O'Brien making the decision. I think McNair is the puppeteer and Smith is the highly paid marionette.


I think Wolf is spot on; McNair says he wants X and Smith makes X happen regardless of consequences.
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