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2017 Draft Thread - Combine Time!
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CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
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Location: Toronto, CA
PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
SemperFeist wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
Those who are pushing for drafting Sidney Jones are probably too young to remember Tripp Welborne, Michigan Wolverine, who played 2 games for the Vikings after reconstructive surgery on his knee (injured in college), then retired.

Drafting is done based on future potential, not past performance.

You do understand that medical procedures and technology have advanced in the last 30 years, right?


Yes.

You do understand that no one can predict the future with certainty with regard to medical issues, right?


No one is trying to predict the future...
But just taking calculated risk.
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gopherwrestler


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:

No one is trying to predict the future...
But just taking calculated risk.


How calculated is it to spend a pick early in the draft when nearly 35% of players with an Achilles tendon rupture never return to playing at an NFL level.

1/3 of the time a player doesn't recover. It's just hard for me to draft a kid that has that much of a chance of never playing at a high level again. Especially someone that has the physical demand of the lower body like a defensive back.

I personally don't know if I'm touching him within anything earlier than a 6th round pick.

I'm amazed from some of y'all complaining about how are draft picks not playing last year, and it being underwhelming are fine with taking a shot on a 3rd round draft pick that will be missing a full NFL season, and may never play at a high level again.
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SemperFeist


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That still gives you 65% chance that they do regain their top form. Then add in age. How many of the players who have torn their Achilles' tendon are older players, how many are 21 years old? Not to mention, you're 35% figure is from a study that's over 15 years old, and where the average age of those players was 29 years old. How much has changed in surgical procedures, treatment, and rehab?

What are the odds of a healthy 1st round talented player succeeding in the NFL? What are the odds of a 3rd round talent player succeeding in the NFL?

I'll take the calculated risk that an injured 1st round talent that I can get in the 3rd round will have higher odds of succeeding than a typical 3rd round caliber player.
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PrplChilPill


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They redshirt CBs anyway. Him not playing in year one is apparently not going to happen even is he's healthy, so that shouldn't be part of the equation.

I might take him, but it is certainly a risk. I guess it depends on who else is there, and if you think this year's team is the last year you have a QB or not.....and if you think it is a SB team. If so, then you probably need to pick a guy that can more likely help this year.
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mikel Leshoure tore his Achilles' in his rookie season...He managed to come back in his 2nd season and put up a respectable season, but was out of the NFL a year and half later.

To make it in the NFL, Jones might have to change positions from CB, because he's likely to never regain full strength. I personally wouldn't take a chance on him.
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gopherwrestler


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually you may be pretty correct. Been doing a little more digging and I found this.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/09/160906145606.htm
Quote:

Athletes who underwent Achilles tendon repair fared slightly better than those who required knee procedures. While they experienced longer recovery periods and decreases in games played and performance the first season after surgery, these players were able to return to baseline performance two and three seasons after surgery.


Now it's closer to that 80% return rate. Still has me worried. So I really wanted to learn more on success rates from drafted players by round and position.





Now looking at this you do see a drop off after the second round at every position.

With Sydney Jones history he does play with speed, he doesn't always rely on it to make plays. He was my top corner in this draft before the injury, but it still does scare me. I do believe this draft is a little different and we will see more defensive backs finding success, possibly into the 3-4th rounds. This is probably the best class for defensive backs we have seen in years. Only reason, depending on corners available, I may let him slide. Even with the success rates on surgeries, I'm still guessing he will never have the speed and complete athletic ability he had before, he may just end up being our 4th CB on the roster for most of his career, he won't be playing in the slot, the hopes of Waynes to kick it into gear, along with waiting 3 or so years to see him playing at a high rate again, I am just not willing to spend that 3rd round pick on the guy.
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gopherwrestler


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

April 4-5, 30 player meetings:
Jalen Myrick, CB, Minnesota
Damarius Travis, S, Minnesota
Elijah Lee, LB, Kansas St.
Leon McQuay, S, USC
Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo
Worth Gregory, P, E. Carolina


Been updating the whole offseason here for any other info I've found online
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=586885&start=0


Keep an eye on this, usually 2-3 players every year that attend seem to be drafted by us.
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CriminalMind


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At ~80% return rate, to get a "top 20 talent & #1 CB" at #86.
Its a massive steal.

Much better then taking a CB at #86, who is valued at #86 ... when you factor in 50% "bust %"

Also, any CB you take at #86, is practically close to redshirting this year.
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gopherwrestler


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
At ~80% return rate, to get a "top 20 talent & #1 CB" at #86.
Its a massive steal.

Much better then taking a CB at #86, who is valued at #86 ... when you factor in 50% "bust %"

Also, any CB you take at #86, is practically close to redshirting this year.


The injury obviously brings him down from #1 CB ranking. His mobility will always be a concern. I highly doubt he will ever come back and be at his 40 time, or recorded 3 cone times.

He will likely be put on IR 1 year, Redshirted in 2018 and not even back to 100% himself, and maybe start seeing something in 2019.

Now as bad as I want a good CB 4 of the future, you are looking at a 2018 as still a need for a CB4 type player. Finding an aging vet that can go on a 1 year contract, or you stick to your guns and hope Jones can play at a decent level in 2018.

I personally am still staying away from any CB at #86.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
At ~80% return rate, to get a "top 20 talent & #1 CB" at #86.
Its a massive steal.

Much better then taking a CB at #86, who is valued at #86 ... when you factor in 50% "bust %"

Also, any CB you take at #86, is practically close to redshirting this year.


You must consider TWO factors.

Return rate.
Performance level after returning.

You considered the first factor. Those who return can perform as well as before their injury, or worse.

I will use a draft value chart, and assume an injured CB prospect WAS pegged at pick #16 in round 1, which is rated as 1000 points on WaltersFootball. I'm not saying that (WF) is accurate, but it's useful for the discussion. Now, if a player has an 80% chance of returning, theoretically, his value drops from 1,000 points before injury to 1,000 x .80 = 800 points after the injury, assuming the average RECOVERY rate.

IF that is the proper way to assess the player's value (I'm just assuming so for the purpose of continuing the discussion), then he would be drafted at position #21, which has 800 points value.

But most people would expect that he will drop by more than 5 spots.

So, GMs must be considering more factors if he drops to the 2nd or 3rd round.... like performance level expectation factor; e.g. a 50% chance of performing at the same level as before injury. Assuming 50% is the proper factor, for the sake of the discussion, his value becomes 1,000 x .80 x .50 = 400 points, which is pick #50; i.e. round 2, pick 18. That seems like where an injured player might be drafted. So, GMs are likely considering both factors I mentioned, whether explicitly as I did above, or implicitly in a single-step judgemental approach.
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CriminalMind


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
CriminalMind wrote:
At ~80% return rate, to get a "top 20 talent & #1 CB" at #86.
Its a massive steal.

Much better then taking a CB at #86, who is valued at #86 ... when you factor in 50% "bust %"

Also, any CB you take at #86, is practically close to redshirting this year.


You must consider TWO factors.

Return rate.
Performance level after returning.

You considered the first factor. Those who return can perform as well as before their injury, or worse.

I will use a draft value chart, and assume an injured CB prospect WAS pegged at pick #16 in round 1, which is rated as 1000 points on WaltersFootball. I'm not saying that (WF) is accurate, but it's useful for the discussion. Now, if a player has an 80% chance of returning, theoretically, his value drops from 1,000 points before injury to 1,000 x .80 = 800 points after the injury, assuming the average RECOVERY rate.

IF that is the proper way to assess the player's value (I'm just assuming so for the purpose of continuing the discussion), then he would be drafted at position #21, which has 800 points value.

But most people would expect that he will drop by more than 5 spots.

So, GMs must be considering more factors if he drops to the 2nd or 3rd round.... like performance level expectation factor; e.g. a 50% chance of performing at the same level as before injury. Assuming 50% is the proper factor, for the sake of the discussion, his value becomes 1,000 x .80 x .50 = 400 points, which is pick #50; i.e. round 2, pick 18. That seems like where an injured player might be drafted. So, GMs are likely considering both factors I mentioned, whether explicitly as I did above, or implicitly in a single-step judgemental approach.


I agree with the double discounted you mentioned.
Sure % are estimates and value charts are inperfect but i agree with the context. And valuation at #50 is actually pretty spot on IMO. Of course I didnt suggest using #48, as our CB need is a bit lower, & it would only offer us "fair value". If waitinf another round and he us there, that is where the value goes up hugely.
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CriminalMind


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
CriminalMind wrote:
At ~80% return rate, to get a "top 20 talent & #1 CB" at #86.
Its a massive steal.

Much better then taking a CB at #86, who is valued at #86 ... when you factor in 50% "bust %"

Also, any CB you take at #86, is practically close to redshirting this year.


You must consider TWO factors.

Return rate.
Performance level after returning.

You considered the first factor. Those who return can perform as well as before their injury, or worse.

I will use a draft value chart, and assume an injured CB prospect WAS pegged at pick #16 in round 1, which is rated as 1000 points on WaltersFootball. I'm not saying that (WF) is accurate, but it's useful for the discussion. Now, if a player has an 80% chance of returning, theoretically, his value drops from 1,000 points before injury to 1,000 x .80 = 800 points after the injury, assuming the average RECOVERY rate.

IF that is the proper way to assess the player's value (I'm just assuming so for the purpose of continuing the discussion), then he would be drafted at position #21, which has 800 points value.

But most people would expect that he will drop by more than 5 spots.

So, GMs must be considering more factors if he drops to the 2nd or 3rd round.... like performance level expectation factor; e.g. a 50% chance of performing at the same level as before injury. Assuming 50% is the proper factor, for the sake of the discussion, his value becomes 1,000 x .80 x .50 = 400 points, which is pick #50; i.e. round 2, pick 18. That seems like where an injured player might be drafted. So, GMs are likely considering both factors I mentioned, whether explicitly as I did above, or implicitly in a single-step judgemental approach.


I agree with the double discounted you mentioned.
Sure % are estimates and value charts are inperfect but i agree with the context. And valuation at #50 is actually pretty spot on IMO. Of course I didnt suggest using #48, as our CB need is a bit lower, & it would only offer us "fair value". If waitinf another round and he us there, that is where the value goes up hugely.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[Aaron Rodgers voice] Discount Double Factor Check ^ double posted. [/Aaron Rodgers voice] Very Happy
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BTW: I don't think the value is 400 above, it's just an example.

One other point is that Spielman will value another position over a risk on an injured CB because the health player can contribute immediately. Recall that trading a pick this year nets a pick in a single round earlier next year. That implies value in getting service from a player immediately versus 'red-shirting' them for a year.

Finally, an injured CB who might play 'later in time' isn't as valuable to the Vikings - due to their CB 'depth' - as a player who plays a position for which the Vikings have no quality starter.

The above leads me to believe Jones will be drafted by another team with poor CB depth before Spielman would be willing to draft him.
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byuvike88


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Eric dunn wrote:
There are quite a few good RBs in this draft, but one guy that doesnt get enough love imo is Marlon Mack. I would love if MIN took him around the 3rd-4th range.

My top 10 backs currently are:
1. J. Mixon
2. L. Fournette
3. D. Cook
4. A. Kamara
5. M. Mack
6. C. McCaffrey
7. D. Foreman
8. S. Perine
9. W. Gallman
10. K. Hunt

Talk about stacked, i just want MIN to come away with one of these guys.


I'd add Jamaal Williams to this list. (bias aside)
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