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drd23


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

indigo_rex wrote:
How close were Willis and Thomas to also making the low-risk 2 group?

Solomon Thomas has an 'Explosive Power score' of 1.04 in Waldo's formula, but the cut-off for Low Risk group 2 is >1.05

Willis' score is 1.01
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HTTRG3Dynasty


Joined: 03 Apr 2012
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is Watt's 10-yd split really not available?
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TVScout


Joined: 05 May 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

On a related note, how important is the draft?

http://blogs.ourlads.com/2017/02/21/questioning-nfl-draft/
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TheVillain112


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TVScout wrote:
On a related note, how important is the draft?

http://blogs.ourlads.com/2017/02/21/questioning-nfl-draft/


Seems to penalize teams that don't play their rookies early. Bengals were listed as having the worst draft of 2013. The year we drafted Tyler Eifert, Gio Bernard, Shawn Williams, and TJ Johnson (solid backup).

Not a stellar draft but I doubt it's the "worst" draft either...
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TVScout


Joined: 05 May 2009
Posts: 2205
PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheVillain112 wrote:
TVScout wrote:
On a related note, how important is the draft?

http://blogs.ourlads.com/2017/02/21/questioning-nfl-draft/


Seems to penalize teams that don't play their rookies early. Bengals were listed as having the worst draft of 2013. The year we drafted Tyler Eifert, Gio Bernard, Shawn Williams, and TJ Johnson (solid backup).

Not a stellar draft but I doubt it's the "worst" draft either...


That proves how statistical analysis is just another tool.
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HTTRG3Dynasty


Joined: 03 Apr 2012
Posts: 9849
PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheVillain112 wrote:
TVScout wrote:
On a related note, how important is the draft?

http://blogs.ourlads.com/2017/02/21/questioning-nfl-draft/


Seems to penalize teams that don't play their rookies early. Bengals were listed as having the worst draft of 2013. The year we drafted Tyler Eifert, Gio Bernard, Shawn Williams, and TJ Johnson (solid backup).

Not a stellar draft but I doubt it's the "worst" draft either...


Yea, it's hard to take any article seriously that has the Colts as the team with the best cumulative drafts the past 5 years. Laughing

Also, I kind of lost interest early in the article when his tables weren't matching his words.
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LETSGOBROWNIES


Joined: 06 Feb 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheVillain112 wrote:
TVScout wrote:
On a related note, how important is the draft?

http://blogs.ourlads.com/2017/02/21/questioning-nfl-draft/


Seems to penalize teams that don't play their rookies early. Bengals were listed as having the worst draft of 2013. The year we drafted Tyler Eifert, Gio Bernard, Shawn Williams, and TJ Johnson (solid backup).

Not a stellar draft but I doubt it's the "worst" draft either...


Browns fans can confirm.
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jch1911


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks to all who updated with 2017 info! Smile
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Redox


Joined: 09 Mar 2014
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/5xtshj/2017_lb_combine_waldo_explosive_and_twitch_ratings/
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lark25


Joined: 01 May 2014
Posts: 366
Location: Aus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 2:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any info on LB 10 yard splits?

TJ Watt is also low risk with the best twitch score - plug in the numbers with any extrapolated 10yd split from 1.6 to 1.7 and you'll see.
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lark25


Joined: 01 May 2014
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 8:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Extrapolated the 10 yard splits, however I think (40yd/2.8Cool gets unrealistically low splits so I adjusted slightly to 40/2.88. Some more Waldo analysis

Top Twitch Guys (30 could be calculated):
1) TJ Watt - 0.89;
2) Carl Lawson - 0.91;
3) Trey Hendrickson - 0.98;
4) Solomon Thomas - 1.02;
= 5) Vince Biegel, Taco Charlton and Deatrich Wise - 1.06.

Anything below 1.1 is good, so you're looking for the fluidity and change of direction rather than straight line. Tells me guys like Takk McKinley, Tim Williams etc are more straight line athletes.

Top Agility Guys (31 calc):
1) Tyus Bowser - 4.99;
2) Solomon Thomas - 4.95
3) TJ Watt - 4.65
4) Jordan Willis - 4.18
5) Derek Barnett - 3.13

Really puts the mass into perspective so Solomon Thomas' 3 cone of 6.98 is great for anyone, but for a 273lb dude it's jaw dropping.

Top Explosive power guys
1) Myles Garrett - 1.12
2) Solomon Thomas - 1.04
3) Jordan Willis - 1.01
=4) TJ Watt, Deatrich Wise, Daeshon Hall - 0.99

One revision I'd suggest to Waldo (if you're out there) is that the low risk category takes into account mass for the 3 cone. You need a 3 cone <7 seconds to be low risk 2, but if you're a 280lb beast that has a 7.01 3 cone you're mid-low risk. I don't know what the score would be but perhaps agility of >2?

So the low risk guys are:
Solomon Thomas (also borderline low risk for explosiveness), TJ Watt, Jordan Willis, Pita Taimoepenu and Vince Biegel. However I wold argue that Derek Barnett and Trey Hendrickson should be in this list with agility scores above 3.

Also Sparq monsters (guys above a standard deviation of Sparq for Edge):
1) Tyus Bowser;
2) Jordan Willis;
3) TJ Watt;
4) Solomon Thomas;
5) Hassan Reddick
6) Trey Hendrickson.

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/edge/
Note that Myles Garrett can't be calculated as there;s no 3 cone. But he's a borderline sigma 3 athlete.

What does it all mean? Myles Garrett has a video game athletic profile (would like the 3 cone, but still). Solomon Thomas is a complete freak and deserves the hype. TJ Watt is also a freak and is probably underrated, Jordan Willis has basically all the tools you'd look for. Don't sleep on Deatrich Wise or Trey Hendrickson - these guys have all the athletic tools you look for.

On the opposite end of the spectrum I'm not going to say these guys are guaranteed busts but 3 hyped guys that have very concerning numbers:
Charles Harris (bottom 10% Sparq, 3rd worst agility, below average twitch, poor explosive power)
Takk McKinley (poor twitch, agility - may struggle against NFL linemen)
Tim Williams (poor twitch, aglility, borderline explosiveness).
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wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lark25 wrote:
TJ Watt is also a freak and is probably underrated


Been saying this for months. Watching him play in games late in the season, I don't know how the general scouting media didn't recognize his freak status.
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Techbert


Joined: 24 Apr 2014
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

lark25 wrote:
...
One revision I'd suggest to Waldo (if you're out there) is that the low risk category takes into account mass for the 3 cone. You need a 3 cone <7 seconds to be low risk 2, but if you're a 280lb beast that has a 7.01 3 cone you're mid-low risk. I don't know what the score would be but perhaps agility of >2?
...


I'm not sure this is true, although I do believe we have enough years of data to go back and refine or even rebuild the original formulae. The formula is for edge rushers, and a 250# player just might have an easier task getting to the qb than a 280# beast. No doubt the mass helps set the edge, which is important and ignored in the task-specific Waldo formulae, but it may not help get to the qb.

A really good question is what numbers would predict interior defensive line play. Leonard Williams, for example, had a SPARQ of 0, or league average, but no one should doubt his ability to generate interior pressure. I may work on that, if I ever free up some time.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wackywabbit wrote:
lark25 wrote:
TJ Watt is also a freak and is probably underrated


Been saying this for months. Watching him play in games late in the season, I don't know how the general scouting media didn't recognize his freak status.


Agreed.
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Techbert


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
wackywabbit wrote:
lark25 wrote:
TJ Watt is also a freak and is probably underrated


Been saying this for months. Watching him play in games late in the season, I don't know how the general scouting media didn't recognize his freak status.


Agreed.


I suspect a lot of people were afraid to tout JJ's brother in case they get accused of being lazy and praising him based on his name.

He's also different enough so that JJ is not a great comp, save for worth ethic. A lot of people get lazy with comps/eval.

Personally, I avoid labeling freaks until after the Combine. It is then obvious, or was initially flawed. Either way, I wait.
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