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Mock Offseason w/ Contract Predictions & Draft

 
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cddolphin


Joined: 23 Mar 2009
Posts: 12767
Location: Florida
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:58 pm    Post subject: Mock Offseason w/ Contract Predictions & Draft Reply with quote

Here is my dream offseason for the Miami Dolphins. I tried to be as realistic as possible with the contracts, and will be very interested to see how they compare to real life. All numbers via overthecap.com


My philosophy: Minimize FA spending and prioritize re-signing developing players who have shown growth in Miami over multiple seasons. While high-end FAs like TE Martellus Bennett, LB Melvin Ingram, DE Jason Pierre Paul, and OG Kevin Zeitler are tempting plug-and-play guys at major positional needs, buying talent isn't a sustainable way to build a competitive football team. I will focus on drafting defenders, but continue to add talent / depth to the OL while maintaining a deep stable of weapons around Tannehill.


Cap Carryover from 2016 = $8.21m
Projected 2017 Cap: $168m + carryover from 2016 = $176.21m

Starting Dolphins 2017 cap = $146.09m


Cut:

DE Mario Williams ($8.5m savings) – Lazy, unproductive, benched, then inactive. No-brainer here.

DE Dion Jordan ($3.23m savings) – Couldn’t get back into football shape and has had more knee surgeries than sacks. Likely out of football.

Restructure:

LB Koa Misi – Restructure 1 year, $4.78m contract (578k guaranteed) into 1 year, $2.3m contract ($1.6m guaranteed). After spinal fusion surgery and a few steady but lackluster seasons, this restructure is better for Misi than the alternative, which is being cut outright. $2.48m in cap savings.

Cap after cuts and restructures = $131.88m


Extend:

WR Jarvis Landry – 4 years, $49m ($24m guaranteed, $12m signing bonus)
2017-2021 cap hits = $10.4m, $12.4m, $8.4m, $8.4 ($2.4m guaranteed), $10.51m ($2.4 guaranteed)

Since he is still under contract in 2017, this is basically a 5 year, $50.11m deal through 2021 with slightly above market value guaranteed money % and signing bonus. This deal pays Landry like a fringe top 10 receiver in terms of new money, but with a very manageable cap structure.


Re-sign:

TE Dion Sims – 3 years, $12.3m ($3m guaranteed, $1.5m signing bonus)
2017-2019 cap hits = $2.55m, $3.25m, $6.5m (500k guaranteed)

Four seasons of steady development is rewarded with a new contract with increasing pay over the next three seasons, with an easy out in 2019 if his play falls of a cliff. Sets him up for another payday at the young age of 28. Still has room to grow as a receiving threat.

S Michael Thomas – 3 years, $9.5m ($4.5 guaranteed, $2.1m signing bonus)
2017-2019 cap hits = $2.7m, $3.1m, $3.7 (700k guaranteed)

Specials teams MVP and contributor on defense. Contract falls in line with major special teams guys.

LS John Denney – 2 years, $2.6m ($1.2m signing bonus/guaranteed)
2017-2018 cap hits = $1.4m, $1.2m (600k guaranteed)

38 years old but I can’t remember a single errant snap. This contract is a slight raise from the previous one he signed.

LB Kiko Alonso (RFA) – 2nd round tender, 1 year $2.55m

This tender gives the Dolphins right of first refusal plus a 2nd round pick from any team that lures Kiko out of Miami.

RB Damien Williams (RFA) – 1 year $1.67m

6 TDs on only 161 offensive snaps. Keeping the stable of Ajayi, Drake, and Williams intact gives Miami a young, exciting, and inexpensive RB corps.

The following players are ERFAs and will each be given a 1 year, 600k contract:

C Anthony Steen
TE Thomas Duarte
LB Mike Hull


Free Agency

Let Walk:

WR Kenny Stills – projected contract: 4 years, $42m ($18m guaranteed)

Stills is a tough call, but ultimately I believe he will be priced out of Miami’s price range. He has a very different skillset than Landry or DvP, but I don’t consider his production or upside worth over $10m annually.

DE Andre Branch – projected contract: 4 years, $34m ($14m guaranteed)

Teams will be willing to pay a premium for a young, above average DE; even one who is more flash than steady performance. Branch hasn’t been consistent enough in my opinion to devote $8m annually, even to a position of need; especially not given the DL available in the coming draft. For what it's worth, PFF graded his 2016 campaign with an overall 69.6.


Sign:
TE Julius Thomas – 2 years, $14m ($5m guaranteed, $4m signing bonus)
2017-2018 cap hits = $5.0m, $9.0m ($2m guaranteed)

During his two seasons with Adam Gase as OC, Thomas average 11.8 yards per reception with 24 total TDs. The previous two years in Jacksonville he has been largely a bust due to various nagging injuries and a poor supporting cast. This contract is essentially a 1-year, prove it deal very similar to the one Jordan Cameron signed with Miami with a decent pay bump in 2018 he has to earn with on-field production. Thomas is only 28 and is by no means a lost cause.

OG/C Ryan Jensen – 2 years, $4.5m ($2m signing bonus / guaranteed)
2017-2018 cap hits = $2.0m, $2.5m ($1m guaranteed)

Originally a 6th round pick for the Ravens in 2013, Jensen has spent the last 4 seasons backing up starters at multiple spots. Over that time, he’s made an appearance in 11 games, filling in at RG, LG, C, and even LT. He played 273 snaps in 2016 and earned a PFF grade of 73.1. Only 25, this contract gives him a significant short-term raise with the opportunity to compete for a starting position and set himself up for a raise after a couple seasons.

LB Sio Moore – 2 year, $2.0m ($600k signing bonus / guaranteed)
2017-2018 cap hits = $900k, $1.1m (300k guaranteed)

The five-year vet has bounced between the Raiders, Colts, and last year was with the Cardinals where he played 400 snaps, earning a 76.7 PFF grade. Well-rounded LB who is better suited hitting gaps downhill. Inexpensive, young competition/depth at LB.


Remaining Cap Space pre-draft = $13.36m
Reserve $7m for draft picks / UDFAs

Final Cap Space = $6.36m


Draft:

My draft was done using the Fanspeak mock draft simulator. I went one-and-done, the following was my first and only mock draft in an attempt to simulate unpredictability. I can't speak for the realism of the draft.. but here are the results:

1 (22) – DE Taco Charlton, Michigan
6’6”, 272lbs, closed out 2016 with 5.5 sacks in his last 4 games against top-notch competition FSU, Ohio State, Indiana, and Iowa. Long, explosive, strong at the point of the attack. Day 1 starter with upside.

2 – OG/C Pat Elflein, Ohio State
Experienced at both OG and C and has performed at a high level for a top program. Much needed talent infusion in the interior OL, and insurance for Mike Pouncey.

3 (compensatory) – FS Justin Evans, Texas A&M
Rangy, fast, safety who primarily played deep. Not the best box safety, but the Dolphins already have one of those (and an elite one at that).

5 - WR Stacy Coley, Miami
Speedy WR with decent size who can help alleviate the loss of Stills.

5 (compensatory) – CB Channing Stribling, Michigan
Started every game at the boundary in 2016. Good height/length, but a bit undersized and not very physical. Plays the ball well, as a former receiver should.

5 (compensatory) – LB Ben Boulware, Clemson
Rangy, productive, smart. On the smaller side and not a standout athlete. Special teams standout, should take on the Spencer Paysinger special teams role while providing developmental depth.

6 – QB Chad Kelly, Mississippi
Senior QB with some character concerns, but has a talented arm and has enough upside to warrant a late-round pick.

7 – DT Joey Ivie, Florida
High-motor, versatile interior DL.


Final Depth Chart:
QB – Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Chad Kelly
RB – Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams, Kenyan Drake
WR – Jarvis Landry, Devante Parker, Leonte Carroo, Stacy Coley, Rashawn Scott, Jakeem Grant
TE – Julius Thomas, Dion Sims, MarQueis Gray, Thomas Duarte
OL – Branden Albert (Sam Young), Laremy Tunsil (Kraig Urbik), Mike Pouncey (Anthony Steen), Pat Elflein (Ryan Jensen), Ju’Wuan James

DL – Taco Charlton (Julius Warmsley), Earl Mitchell (Jordan Phillips), Ndamukong Suh (Joey Ivie), Cameron Wake (Terrence Fede)
LB – Koa Misi (Ben Boulware), Kiko Alonso (Mike Hull), Sio Moore (Neville Hewitt)
CB – Byron Maxwell, Xavien Howard, Tony Lippett, Channing Stribling, Bobby McCain (nickel), Jordan Lucas
S – Reshad Jones, Isa-Abdul Quddus, Justin Evans, Michael Thomas (backup nickel), Walt Aikens

P – Matt Darr
K – Andrew Franks
LS – John Denney

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freak_of_nature


Joined: 15 Oct 2012
Posts: 1585
Location: ATL
PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd like to get K Zane Gonzalez with one of our 5ths. Amazing leg.
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green4gulf


Joined: 06 Jan 2006
Posts: 2940
Location: The Treasure Coast
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well done!! I like the draft, especially the Elflein and Boulware picks and I think your evaluation of them is spot on. This would make us a better all around team from a personnel standpoint.
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freak_of_nature


Joined: 15 Oct 2012
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great job, overall.

1) I'd re-signs Stills instead of signing J. Thomas.
2) I really don't want Coley. Not a fan
3) K Zane Gonzalez
4) I'd just cut Misi
5) I love the Evans pick. We could get a really good FS Day 2. Move R. Jones to WLB/SS role.
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ericsvibe


Joined: 30 Nov 2006
Posts: 1186
Location: East Helena, MT
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

freak_of_nature wrote:
Great job, overall.

1) I'd re-signs Stills instead of signing J. Thomas.
2) I really don't want Coley. Not a fan
3) K Zane Gonzalez
4) I'd just cut Misi
5) I love the Evans pick. We could get a really good FS Day 2. Move R. Jones to WLB/SS role.


Great work, however I don't think that our LB core would be improved any with this lineup, in fact, it may even be worse. I think that taking a DE in the 1st is a bit of a luxury, especially when you consider the fact that we only have 1 starting caliber LB on the team.

If you change Charlton for Cunningham, then we hit all of the major needs in one offseason. Cut Misi who is replaced my Moore, and move Kiko to WLB, and we are set with the rest of your moves.
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cddolphin


Joined: 23 Mar 2009
Posts: 12767
Location: Florida
PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ericsvibe wrote:
freak_of_nature wrote:
Great job, overall.

1) I'd re-signs Stills instead of signing J. Thomas.
2) I really don't want Coley. Not a fan
3) K Zane Gonzalez
4) I'd just cut Misi
5) I love the Evans pick. We could get a really good FS Day 2. Move R. Jones to WLB/SS role.


Great work, however I don't think that our LB core would be improved any with this lineup, in fact, it may even be worse. I think that taking a DE in the 1st is a bit of a luxury, especially when you consider the fact that we only have 1 starting caliber LB on the team.

If you change Charlton for Cunningham, then we hit all of the major needs in one offseason. Cut Misi who is replaced my Moore, and move Kiko to WLB, and we are set with the rest of your moves.


Cunningham was my first choice as well, but in the simulator he was drafted before the Dolphins went on the clock.

I agree that LB is still not as strong as it could be, that's kind of how the draft fell; I did the best I could in at least adding depth and competition. I think Moore could be at least a slight upgrade over Jenkins.

Misi has his issues, but since I didn't have a clear upgrade available cutting him outright would've caused more problems than solutions. There's always the possibility that Boulware or Hewitt end up beating him out in this hypothetical scenario.


As for DE being a luxury pick, I would have to disagree. As of today, the Dolphins only have Cameron Wake (35 years old), Terrance Fede, and Julius Warmsley under contract for 2017.. I think it's a huge need going forward, neck-and-neck with LB.
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freak_of_nature


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we're still going to go into 2017 with at least one need. Maybe a less-than-ideal LB or DE to start the season. I don't expect all the boxes to be checked this time around. Knowing this, I'd take Adoree Jackson if he's there just to have a nice CB trio when Maxwell gets cut after 2017. One (or more) of them might not stay healthy in 2017, anyways.
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green4gulf


Joined: 06 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cddolphin wrote:
ericsvibe wrote:
freak_of_nature wrote:
Great job, overall.

1) I'd re-signs Stills instead of signing J. Thomas.
2) I really don't want Coley. Not a fan
3) K Zane Gonzalez
4) I'd just cut Misi
5) I love the Evans pick. We could get a really good FS Day 2. Move R. Jones to WLB/SS role.


Great work, however I don't think that our LB core would be improved any with this lineup, in fact, it may even be worse. I think that taking a DE in the 1st is a bit of a luxury, especially when you consider the fact that we only have 1 starting caliber LB on the team.

If you change Charlton for Cunningham, then we hit all of the major needs in one offseason. Cut Misi who is replaced my Moore, and move Kiko to WLB, and we are set with the rest of your moves.


Cunningham was my first choice as well, but in the simulator he was drafted before the Dolphins went on the clock.

I agree that LB is still not as strong as it could be, that's kind of how the draft fell; I did the best I could in at least adding depth and competition. I think Moore could be at least a slight upgrade over Jenkins.

Misi has his issues, but since I didn't have a clear upgrade available cutting him outright would've caused more problems than solutions. There's always the possibility that Boulware or Hewitt end up beating him out in this hypothetical scenario.


As for DE being a luxury pick, I would have to disagree. As of today, the Dolphins only have Cameron Wake (35 years old), Terrance Fede, and Julius Warmsley under contract for 2017.. I think it's a huge need going forward, neck-and-neck with LB.


DE is definitely a position of need, and unlike OLB it is one of the 5 commonly considered critical positions.......which is why so many DEs are drafted in round 1. Certainly there are exceptions to this and it really just depends on how the draft plays out.
OLB is probably our biggest need but very good starting 4-3 OLBs are often found in rounds 2-4. Additionally, this is a deep class of DE's and we could probably find one in round 2 that would usually get drafted in round 1 of most drafts. Either way we are in a good place to get both in the first three rounds.
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Rgossett07


Joined: 12 Mar 2016
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 3rd and 4th rounders we gave up for Caroo are really going to sting this year. So many needs on the defensive side of the ball.

Phins needs to find 3-4 starters in this years draft.
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green4gulf


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PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2017 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rgossett07 wrote:
The 3rd and 4th rounders we gave up for Caroo are really going to sting this year. So many needs on the defensive side of the ball.

Phins needs to find 3-4 starters in this years draft.


Agreed, but at least we should get some comp picks to fill in for those traded away picks. I really hope Tannenbaum doesn't start trading away more picks this draft believing we are one or two players away. We need to sit tight and see what falls to us and trade back if we don't need what's there.
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bpastermack


Joined: 17 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rgossett07 wrote:
The 3rd and 4th rounders we gave up for Caroo are really going to sting this year. So many needs on the defensive side of the ball.

Phins needs to find 3-4 starters in this years draft.


I really hope Carroo shows his worth this year. I definitely liked the college film. Lots of guys struggle to adapt in year one. Let's see how he looks this coming year.
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mountainpd


Joined: 21 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like your thoughts.

I would resign both Stills and Branch and out a 1st round tender on Alonso.

I agree with all your other resigns.

Love the Elflien pick but think we need to address Corner/Linebacker and Defesive End in Free agency or draft.

Would love us to take a chance on a top corner in free agency.
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