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GERM-X: 1st 2017 Broncos Mock Draft

 
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germ-x


Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 9234
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:40 pm    Post subject: GERM-X: 1st 2017 Broncos Mock Draft Reply with quote

Alright, here is my first shot at a mock draft now that the draft declaration deadline is over. I say this every time, but I don't base this off of what I would do I base it off of what I think Elway and the Broncos could do and try to provide a reason behind it.

NOTES:

You will be able to see the departures in the depth chart section at the end. I'm not going to list them all here.

I am also not going to show a bunch of the ERFA signings and what not, you'll be able to see who was kept in the depth chart section as well.


Major Free Agent Signings:

Andrew Whitworth, LT (Bengals), 2 years $25M- Denver's OT's were among the worst in the league. Whitworth is one of the top 2 or 3 in the business. His age, 35, is a concern, but Denver can get him on a short term deal as they look to find someone to groom behind him in the next couple of years.

Ricky Wagner, RT (Ravens) 4 years $30M- I know many are not a fan, but he's proven to be one of the top 8 or so RT's over the course of his career. RT has been a revolving door since Elway has taken over and has graded out as one of the worst in the league during that time. He aims to fix that issue with FA money this offseason.

Bennie Logan, NT (Eagles) 4 years $26M- He's going to cost around half of what the big name DT's will get this offseason. He's quietly been one of the best run defenders along the interior of the league for 2 seasons now. Stopping the run was a big issue for Denver and Logan will go a long way in fixing that.

Gerald Hodges, LB (49ers) 2 years $5M- He had an average year, but will be one of the better coverage LB's on the market and is comfortable in both the 3/4 and 4/3. Depth at ILB is an issue, especially with Brandon Marshall being frequently injured. The team also felt the impact of losing Trevathan's coverage abilities this year and Hodges can help out in this area.

Vance Walker, DE/NT (Broncos) 2 years $4M- Denver brings Walker back. He was poised to start this season and has proven to be capable of playing both DE and NT in the 3/4. Denver needs depth and improvement vs the run, Walker provides both.

TRADES:

Denver trades 3rd round pick (#180) and a 3rd round compensatory pick to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2nd round pick (#60).

Denver trades 6th round pick (#177) and 7th round pick (#209) to the Houston Texans for a 6th round pick (#162).

Denver's Draft Picks:
1st Round: #20
2nd Round: #51
2nd Round: #60
3rd Round: Compensatory Pick
4th Round: #116
4th Round: Compensatory Pick
6th Round: (#162)
7th Round: Compensatory Pick


1st Round: #20

David Njoku, TE, Miami*- Mike McCoy has always had an elite talent at TE for his system and he knows how to maximize the talent. Njoku is a freak athlete at 6'4" 245 with the ability to stretch the field and create after the catch. He'll need work as a blocker, but gives the team another weapon to be accounted for in the passing game. There have only been 4 TE's selected in the top 20 picks since 2000 and Denver will likely be in position at #20 to get Njoku or OJ Howard.

2nd Round: #51

Dion Dawkins, OT/OG, Temple- McCoy and Davidson typically use bigger players along the offensive front. Dawkins fits the mold at 6'5" 320+. Some see him as a guy with the necessary feet to play LT in the NFL others see him as more of a guard. I've seen him compared to Tampa Bay 2nd round pick and NFL starting LT Donovan Smith. With starters at both tackle spots Denver can use him along the interior and as OT depth early in his career. If he doesn't pan out as a tackle he likely can be a good starter at OG for many years.

2nd Round: #60 (f/Dallas)

Cameron Sutton, CB, Tennessee*- Elway has stated he will continue to address the defense and makes this selection of Sutton. Sutton is a very gifted player at 5'11" 190 and with a loaded CB class and him missing much of the season he could be available here. Denver will need to add depth at CB and in the future could have some decisions to make when it comes to Roby and possibly even Talib. Sutton is also one of the best returners in the draft and will add playmaking to that unit.

3rd Round: Compensatory Pick

Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington- Kupp plays against weaker competition, but has been one of the most prolific WR's in college football throughout his career. If he runs better than expected he may not even be available at this pick. He has solid size at 6'1" 205 which will allow him to play inside or out in the NFL. His best traits are his quickness, hands, and route running. Denver needs another receiving weapon. Kupp may not be a great playmaker with the ball in his hands, but should provide a reliable chain moving target.

4th Round: #116

Jeremy McNichols, RB, Boise St.- There isn't anything particularly flashy about McNichols game. He probably isn't a lead back, but adds solid depth and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. He's 5'9" 215 with solid all around skills. He also has experience lining up at receiver and is a player Denver can utilize in the passing game. He does have experience in the return game, but is more of a solid/reliable type than a gamebreaker.

4th Round: Compensatory Pick

Julie'n Davenport, OT, Bucknell- Davenport is not a good football player right now. He struggled at times this year against weaker competition and is raw and needs a lot of technical work. However, physically he has all the tools teams are looking for in a LT. He's 6'7" 315 and a good athlete. Denver can afford to role the dice on him at this point in the draft and swing for the fences.

6th Round: #162 (f/Houston)

Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB, Tennessee- Reeves-Maybin is an undersized LB, but has very good athletic traits. Being undersized he needs to get stronger, but he projects to be an impact player on special teams and with his speed could possibly become an excellent cover LB.

7th Round: Compensatory Pick

Josh Tupou, NT, Colorado- The CU connection. Tupou is a big player in a similar mold to Darius Kilgo. He has solid athleticism for his size and the ability to eat up space. He's a 2 down player, but at 6'3" 325 he could provide nice depth at NT or develop a bit more on the practice squad.

Denver's 2018 Depth Chart

Offense
QB: Lynch/Siemian, Davis
RB: Anderson, Booker, McNichols
FB: Janovich

WR: Thomas, Taylor, Fowler
WR: Sanders, Kupp, Latimer
TE: Njoku, Derby, Heuerman

LT: Whitworth, Davenport
LG: Dawkins/Garcia
C: Paradis
RG: Schofield, McGovern
RT: Wagner

Defense
LE: Wolfe, Crick
NT: Logan, Tupou, Peko
RE: Walker, Gotsis

LOLB: Miller, Barrett
ILB: Marshall, Davis
ILB: Hodges, Nelson, Reeves-Maybin
ROLB: Ray, Watson

CB: Harris, Roby, Nixon
S: Stewart, Simmons
S. Ward, Parks
CB: Talib, Sutton, Doss

Special Teams
K: McManus
P: Dixon
LS: Whoever

Rookies=Blue, FA's=Orange
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broncs4life


Joined: 18 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mannnnnnnnnnn i would be so happy!! Nice job!
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 8:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love the FA (sans Wagner - who has had a good year, not many), hate the draft. You allow yourself to go in any direction with the holes you fill via free agency at both tackle positions and at nose tackle and inside linebacker, but there's some philosophical issues I have with a few of the picks.

I don't doubt the talent analysis on Njoku for a second, I do doubt whether he gives this team the best chance at success next year though. I'm fundamentally opposed to drafting TE's in round 1. I'm more a fan of low risk high reward athletes in the mid-late rounds. I get the upside with Njoku, but I don't see how it helps in 2017-18, and we have a short window that I feel Elway plans to attack - nay, I hope he plans to attack.

I've read about Dion Dawkins, and his athleticism is incredibly intriguing. But I'd imagine he's got a ways to go. Also, I loved Donovan Smith coming out of college - but isn't TB trying to replace him as their LT? Hardly encouraging.

Love the Cam Sutton pick. Value and could kill two birds with one stone. I don't know if I want a return specialist that early - as Sutton won't contribute for a couple years given the depth we have. But seems like a potential steal based on talent.

Kupp sounds destined to be a Patriots WR.

Idk much about McNichols but I agree with the direction of getting a pass game specialist. I think we need someone dynamic as a receiving option out of the backfield. Not sure that's McNichols, but direction seems right to me.

Julie'n Davenport is that type of pick along the line that I just don't see Elway making given our window for SB success narrowing. I think we need to gain starters on the line, not look for very long term projects.

Love the Jalen Reeves-Maybin pick. He'll fall due to that injury, but I think he'll work as a pro for whoever gets him. Just a football player.

Agree with going after the space eater, but I think it may be a need we need to address earlier. After the offseason you've laid out, we remain 3 deep along the DL. There's nothing behind our starters of Wolfe-Logan-Walker. If one goes down we can't count on rapid development from Gotsis, and we found out this year Crick's not a viable starter.
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
Posts: 3589
PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like Elliot, I love the FA - I wonder if we can get Hodges that cheaply, even being an average LB. I think the rest are realistic #'s.

I echo the point on TE's - I'd rather we go true BPA, and frankly, I think a 3-4 DE likely is there as top guy off the board.

At #51 I'd hope one of the big 3 G's is there (Nelson/Feeney being my top 2, Lamp 3rd), and if not, I'd almost consider trading higher (with a comp 4th added in to move up into the high 40's if that's what's needed). I think Wagner is the RT if we sign him long-term, and I don't think he'd be a great LT, so I'd much rather get a plug and play, elite-ceiling G with no T potential there.

Love the Sutton & McNichols pick, I actually think he'll fall into the 5th in this ridiculous RB class. If trading the 4th meant we didn't get Davenport, I'd live with that, if it meant we got a true elite G prospect like Nelson or Feeney.

If we still had our comp 4th pick, I'd seriously think Jake Butt there. Round 2 talent who will fall because of his ACL.

Solid first go, good work.
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germ-x


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Understand all concerns.

Looking at the history of TE draft picks they almost always fall in the draft. And I'd rather take Jake Butt in the 3rd even then Njoku in round 1. There is no denying though that Njoku and Howard are exceptional talents. Why I have Denver taking one is because McCoy as an OC has always had a great talent at TE and he knows how to utilize them. Denver doesn't currently have that player on the roster, even though I do like Derby's upside as a receiving threat. Elway also knows the impact of having a mismatch TE and if he's really on the Lynch bandwagon (which I think there is no doubt he is) he will figure out how to protect him and give him plenty of weapons.

I also see the point on Dawkins. I'd rather have Feeney or Lamp as well. Nelson returned to school. However, McCoy and Davidson have typically employed bigger bodied guys and Elway loves versatility from his OL. Dawkins provides that. He can compete for a couple years inside, but if he shows the feet/athleticism to play tackle it puts Denver in a nice (and cheap) situation with Whitworths age, especially with a developmental guy like Davenport who won't touch the field for a few years. though the team does have Justin Murray who I thought looked good in preseason and is very athletic who plays OT and was on the practice squad this year.

Broncofan, what 3/4 DEs do you see worthy of a top 20 pick being there at #20? Outside of a few I don't see this being a great 3/4 DL draft in general. Further, Elway never gives up on picks early. They do rotate DL a lot, but drafting a 3/4 DE basically indicates giving up on Gotsis, which isn't anything Elway has been shown to do this early with an early round pick.
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KingBishop


Joined: 29 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love it. Njoku is way up there for me.
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Favorite Players in this Class:

David Njoku, Jourdan Lewis, Steven Taylor, Tedric Thompson, Marlon Mack, Brian Hill, OJ Howard, Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker, Marcus Williams, Eddie Jackson

Deforest Buckner is the best player in the 2016 draft class
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Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
Posts: 3589
PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

germ-x wrote:
Understand all concerns.

Looking at the history of TE draft picks they almost always fall in the draft. And I'd rather take Jake Butt in the 3rd even then Njoku in round 1. There is no denying though that Njoku and Howard are exceptional talents. Why I have Denver taking one is because McCoy as an OC has always had a great talent at TE and he knows how to utilize them. Denver doesn't currently have that player on the roster, even though I do like Derby's upside as a receiving threat. Elway also knows the impact of having a mismatch TE and if he's really on the Lynch bandwagon (which I think there is no doubt he is) he will figure out how to protect him and give him plenty of weapons.

I also see the point on Dawkins. I'd rather have Feeney or Lamp as well. Nelson returned to school. However, McCoy and Davidson have typically employed bigger bodied guys and Elway loves versatility from his OL. Dawkins provides that. He can compete for a couple years inside, but if he shows the feet/athleticism to play tackle it puts Denver in a nice (and cheap) situation with Whitworths age, especially with a developmental guy like Davenport who won't touch the field for a few years. though the team does have Justin Murray who I thought looked good in preseason and is very athletic who plays OT and was on the practice squad this year.

Broncofan, what 3/4 DEs do you see worthy of a top 20 pick being there at #20? Outside of a few I don't see this being a great 3/4 DL draft in general. Further, Elway never gives up on picks early. They do rotate DL a lot, but drafting a 3/4 DE basically indicates giving up on Gotsis, which isn't anything Elway has been shown to do this early with an early round pick.


Obviously Allen isn't going to be there, but Malik McDowell is a clear target. With all the CB's and the 2 WR's and Cook/Fournette stock rise, McDowell is a clear top 20 BPA who keeps getting mocked at 17-22 range, whether it's NFL, CBS, WF, etc.

Now, even if McDowell wasn't there, if an elite ILB (I devalue ILB a lot, but if they elite, well, that's different) like a Rueben Foster who drops...you get the idea.

Finally, it's already been discussed in the draft thread, if one of 2 big WR's are there, with that FA class, I look for the next tier of 3-4 DE at Rd 3, and then get one of them. Then we aren't going Kupp and can go Butt there. The drawback with this is we still haven't upgraded 3-4 DE or ILB in an impact way to pair with the FA NT upgrade that transforms our run D into elite.

Kupp is the guy I pass on to get Butt if we don't think 4 Comp can get Butt.

At 20, with this class and how loaded it is at CB/RB/TE, I suspect the elite CB/RB tempt a few teams to go there and let true BPA's fall further. In which case we pounce. You might have McDowell ranked higher than 20, which could very well happen - but I have several BPA's as targets who all could fall - I don't want to pigeonhole in Rd 1 necessarily.

To get TE, I totally get your point on Howard & Njoku - but if you take any of those guys above, Butt at Rd 3-4 and DE somewhere else (Rd 2 G - good pickup on Nelson, dayum), we have way more talent overall on the team. IMO of course.

We do need TE & G so Rd 2 move up to get OL is great. Love the RB/CB picks (and even if mcnichols goes sooner other quality RB will be there). I'd drop further back into Rd 3 comp to get Butt & pass on Kupp. I'd wonder if Kupp didn't fall to 4 comp then we decide between 3rd WR and developmental OL project.

I love your FA class, because it then gives us the true freedom to go overall BPA. That's how teams stay contenders in the long run.
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broncofan48


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know the consensus around here is we need a 3-4 DE and bad. But I'm not so sure Elway is thinking that way. If he upgrades NT then gets Walker and healthy Wolfe as starters and Gostis and Crick as backups that might be what we are set at.

Depending on FA I see Elway going for the splash move. I personally hope we get Foster but Njoku has the potential to be so good that I could very easily see him here
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champ11


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

broncofan48 wrote:
I know the consensus around here is we need a 3-4 DE and bad. But I'm not so sure Elway is thinking that way. If he upgrades NT then gets Walker and healthy Wolfe as starters and Gostis and Crick as backups that might be what we are set at.

Depending on FA I see Elway going for the splash move. I personally hope we get Foster but Njoku has the potential to be so good that I could very easily see him here


That would be a disaster, in my personal opinion. I don't see any way that he can pass up on the DL.

Don't forget that Wolfe is coming off a fairly unhealthy season as Walker obviously is. Gotsis sucks. Crick is a better pass rusher than run stopper.
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

champ11 wrote:
broncofan48 wrote:
I know the consensus around here is we need a 3-4 DE and bad. But I'm not so sure Elway is thinking that way. If he upgrades NT then gets Walker and healthy Wolfe as starters and Gostis and Crick as backups that might be what we are set at.

Depending on FA I see Elway going for the splash move. I personally hope we get Foster but Njoku has the potential to be so good that I could very easily see him here


That would be a disaster, in my personal opinion. I don't see any way that he can pass up on the DL.

Don't forget that Wolfe is coming off a fairly unhealthy season as Walker obviously is. Gotsis sucks. Crick is a better pass rusher than run stopper.


Yea I mean there's no way he doesn't see how big of an impact the loss of one DL was on us. Yes we lost 2 - Vance was penciled in as a starter and is an elite run stuffer - but even still, you want Vance probably as your 1st guy off the bench rotating in more than you want him as a starter.

McDowell is super intriguing but the lack of production gives me pause. I like to see a ton of action in the backfield from DT's in college... not just size/athleticism that projects well to the position at the next level. McDowell should have blown up this year and kinda didn't.
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Broncofan


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

elliot878 wrote:
champ11 wrote:
broncofan48 wrote:
I know the consensus around here is we need a 3-4 DE and bad. But I'm not so sure Elway is thinking that way. If he upgrades NT then gets Walker and healthy Wolfe as starters and Gostis and Crick as backups that might be what we are set at.

Depending on FA I see Elway going for the splash move. I personally hope we get Foster but Njoku has the potential to be so good that I could very easily see him here


That would be a disaster, in my personal opinion. I don't see any way that he can pass up on the DL.

Don't forget that Wolfe is coming off a fairly unhealthy season as Walker obviously is. Gotsis sucks. Crick is a better pass rusher than run stopper.


Yea I mean there's no way he doesn't see how big of an impact the loss of one DL was on us. Yes we lost 2 - Vance was penciled in as a starter and is an elite run stuffer - but even still, you want Vance probably as your 1st guy off the bench rotating in more than you want him as a starter.

McDowell is super intriguing but the lack of production gives me pause. I like to see a ton of action in the backfield from DT's in college... not just size/athleticism that projects well to the position at the next level. McDowell should have blown up this year and kinda didn't.


That's entirely fair - he did play really well in his junior year, and I would have loved for him to blow up too - then again, if he blew up, he wouldn't be going here. That Big Ten experience, though, and 2+ years of success (even if it wasn't blowing up), at the 3-4 DE spot, though..I'm intrigued if he falls to us.

Either way, whether it's draft or FA, we have to upgrade DE. Walker at best is a 3rd DE, a guy who is very effective with limited snaps. Could not count on him to play 16 games at the same level of production, and no guarantee at all with his 2016 injury for sure.
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steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
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BroncosFan2010


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love the FA, every move is an A+ except for Wagner, who is a B. I just don't like paying that much for a guy that I don't see as top 5 at his position. I also think BAL is going to prioritize him over Williams so he will be real hard to sign.

Bennie Logan would be an excellent pickup at NT. I like him at 6M per over Brandon Williams or Poe at 9-12M per.

I am pretty down on the draft. I don't see Njoku breaking the 'Round 1 TE takes a year to contribute' curse. He would be a pick for the future and we don't have that luxury. This defense will decline sooner than we wish. You need guys that help win games immediately.

Dawkins is decent if uninspiring. As Broncofan said, I would prefer one of the 'big 3' at OG, even if that means dealing up. Sutton would be a great fit. Talib is gone next year as we will commit to the younger Roby and he can contribute from day 1 as a returner. Really hate the Kupp pick. He is nothing special. Havent scouted McNichols. Davenport is a throw-away pick. He is a pure athlete and I would roll a 6 or 7 on him, ala Vinston Painter, but he isn't worth a R4. Maybin would be a great pickup. Should help on ST right away. Tupou is my guy. Love his value late if one is looking for a 2 down stuffer.
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jsthomp2007


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Say Cooper Kupp five times.
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