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duke2056


Joined: 21 Feb 2005
Posts: 8846
Location: Cleveland area
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would still much rather have several chances at top of the draft talent than a "can't miss", unless it is a QB that is can't miss.

I firmly feel that more good picks rather than one great pick increases the chances that this team will be good at some point in the next few years.
I don't mean doing it EVERY year, but last year IMO went just fine with it, and I would like to see them do it again this time around.

Heck, I am fine with them trading back BOTH first round picks and entering 2018 with three 1sts, then let the good times roll.

I think we would still draft one or two good players this year along with a few halfway decent players, sign some guys, and enter 2018 with a nice outlook.

If you guys are still wanting to win and be a playoff team in 2017, you are dreaming. The only way we could do that is to sign all the FAs, likely to all bad contracts, and screw ourselves for 2018 and beyond. Rather not do that.
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2014 draft prediction:

Zero chance the Browns draft a QB at pick 4, or trade up for a QB.

And Matt Ryan is so great he has one playoff win.
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Thomas5737


Joined: 23 Dec 2009
Posts: 14365
Location: West Virginia Occupation: Browns LT
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

duke2056 wrote:
I would still much rather have several chances at top of the draft talent than a "can't miss", unless it is a QB that is can't miss.

I firmly feel that more good picks rather than one great pick increases the chances that this team will be good at some point in the next few years.
I don't mean doing it EVERY year, but last year IMO went just fine with it, and I would like to see them do it again this time around.

Heck, I am fine with them trading back BOTH first round picks and entering 2018 with three 1sts, then let the good times roll.

I think we would still draft one or two good players this year along with a few halfway decent players, sign some guys, and enter 2018 with a nice outlook.

If you guys are still wanting to win and be a playoff team in 2017, you are dreaming. The only way we could do that is to sign all the FAs, likely to all bad contracts, and screw ourselves for 2018 and beyond. Rather not do that.


It's a numbers game and there is no correct answer. Do you draft a guy who has an 80% chance of being a pro bowl player or a guy at 50% and another at 30%? You're at 80% chance of success either way but you only have a 20% chance fail rate keeping the pick and 120% fail rate trading back.

Hmmm, I think my math sucks.

If you were all knowing you would always trade back and grab the great prospect. Since we aren't all knowing I certainly understand taking the pick more likely to succeed over two lesser picks who more likely become just guys, which we have a team full of already.

If you trade back and draft well or you stay put and draft well you will succeed. If you stay put and draft poorly or trade back and draft poorly you will fail. So the most important thing is to not screw up your picks, not the shuffling around.

Thank you for your time, I'll now send you back to your regularly scheduled debating.
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duke2056


Joined: 21 Feb 2005
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Location: Cleveland area
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thomas5737 wrote:
duke2056 wrote:
I would still much rather have several chances at top of the draft talent than a "can't miss", unless it is a QB that is can't miss.

I firmly feel that more good picks rather than one great pick increases the chances that this team will be good at some point in the next few years.
I don't mean doing it EVERY year, but last year IMO went just fine with it, and I would like to see them do it again this time around.

Heck, I am fine with them trading back BOTH first round picks and entering 2018 with three 1sts, then let the good times roll.

I think we would still draft one or two good players this year along with a few halfway decent players, sign some guys, and enter 2018 with a nice outlook.

If you guys are still wanting to win and be a playoff team in 2017, you are dreaming. The only way we could do that is to sign all the FAs, likely to all bad contracts, and screw ourselves for 2018 and beyond. Rather not do that.


It's a numbers game and there is no correct answer. Do you draft a guy who has an 80% chance of being a pro bowl player or a guy at 50% and another at 30%? You're at 80% chance of success either way but you only have a 20% chance fail rate keeping the pick and 120% fail rate trading back.

Hmmm, I think my math sucks.

If you were all knowing you would always trade back and grab the great prospect. Since we aren't all knowing I certainly understand taking the pick more likely to succeed over two lesser picks who more likely become just guys, which we have a team full of already.

If you trade back and draft well or you stay put and draft well you will succeed. If you stay put and draft poorly or trade back and draft poorly you will fail. So the most important thing is to not screw up your picks, not the shuffling around.

Thank you for your time, I'll now send you back to your regularly scheduled debating.


Your math was horrible, but at least I knew exactly what you meant, lol.

My personal opinion is that (barring a top QB prospect) your chances of having a GREAT overall draft are better with a higher number of top end picks, as in picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

Yes, each individual pick technically has a lesser % chance of being a "hit" than the higher pick, but you also have a chance of hitting on multiple picks rather than just that 1. I think that is what gives THIS team the best chance to be successful in the foreseeable future.

As you said, if you draft well you will be good. If you draft poorly like we have, you will be a laughing stock like we are.

I just think if you have a high pick like we do, trade it down AND draft well, you can greatly expedite your rebuild.
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2014 draft prediction:

Zero chance the Browns draft a QB at pick 4, or trade up for a QB.

And Matt Ryan is so great he has one playoff win.
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Thomas5737


Joined: 23 Dec 2009
Posts: 14365
Location: West Virginia Occupation: Browns LT
PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

duke2056 wrote:
Thomas5737 wrote:
duke2056 wrote:
I would still much rather have several chances at top of the draft talent than a "can't miss", unless it is a QB that is can't miss.

I firmly feel that more good picks rather than one great pick increases the chances that this team will be good at some point in the next few years.
I don't mean doing it EVERY year, but last year IMO went just fine with it, and I would like to see them do it again this time around.

Heck, I am fine with them trading back BOTH first round picks and entering 2018 with three 1sts, then let the good times roll.

I think we would still draft one or two good players this year along with a few halfway decent players, sign some guys, and enter 2018 with a nice outlook.

If you guys are still wanting to win and be a playoff team in 2017, you are dreaming. The only way we could do that is to sign all the FAs, likely to all bad contracts, and screw ourselves for 2018 and beyond. Rather not do that.


It's a numbers game and there is no correct answer. Do you draft a guy who has an 80% chance of being a pro bowl player or a guy at 50% and another at 30%? You're at 80% chance of success either way but you only have a 20% chance fail rate keeping the pick and 120% fail rate trading back.

Hmmm, I think my math sucks.

If you were all knowing you would always trade back and grab the great prospect. Since we aren't all knowing I certainly understand taking the pick more likely to succeed over two lesser picks who more likely become just guys, which we have a team full of already.

If you trade back and draft well or you stay put and draft well you will succeed. If you stay put and draft poorly or trade back and draft poorly you will fail. So the most important thing is to not screw up your picks, not the shuffling around.

Thank you for your time, I'll now send you back to your regularly scheduled debating.


Your math was horrible, but at least I knew exactly what you meant, lol.

My personal opinion is that (barring a top QB prospect) your chances of having a GREAT overall draft are better with a higher number of top end picks, as in picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

Yes, each individual pick technically has a lesser % chance of being a "hit" than the higher pick, but you also have a chance of hitting on multiple picks rather than just that 1. I think that is what gives THIS team the best chance to be successful in the foreseeable future.

As you said, if you draft well you will be good. If you draft poorly like we have, you will be a laughing stock like we are.

I just think if you have a high pick like we do, trade it down AND draft well, you can greatly expedite your rebuild.


Yeah you can look at pretty much any past draft and see that there was a great player available at pick 7, 19, 24, 38, 49 etc... So you absolutely can get more that way. There are also a lot of guys picked prior to 49, 38, 24, 19 and 7 that failed. There has never been a played picked before the #1 overall pick that has failed. So I would try to trade up from the #1 pick and that would pretty much assure us we get a great player.

Now I'm just being dumb. I honestly don't know where I stand on this. Most years I'm all about the trade back but this year not so much, at least with the #1 overall pick. We can trade back with the rest depending on who is available and who will likely still be on the board when we pick again.

I've always been for trading a second for a future first and always have 2 1sts instead of a 1st and a 2nd. At least until we are drafting in an area that no longer makes our 2nd round pick valuable enough to trade for a future 1st but then we are winning more games anyway and we can concentrate on the game on the field more than the draft.
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bruceb


Joined: 15 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

duke2056 wrote:
Thomas5737 wrote:
duke2056 wrote:
I would still much rather have several chances at top of the draft talent than a "can't miss", unless it is a QB that is can't miss.

I firmly feel that more good picks rather than one great pick increases the chances that this team will be good at some point in the next few years.
I don't mean doing it EVERY year, but last year IMO went just fine with it, and I would like to see them do it again this time around.

Heck, I am fine with them trading back BOTH first round picks and entering 2018 with three 1sts, then let the good times roll.

I think we would still draft one or two good players this year along with a few halfway decent players, sign some guys, and enter 2018 with a nice outlook.

If you guys are still wanting to win and be a playoff team in 2017, you are dreaming. The only way we could do that is to sign all the FAs, likely to all bad contracts, and screw ourselves for 2018 and beyond. Rather not do that.


It's a numbers game and there is no correct answer. Do you draft a guy who has an 80% chance of being a pro bowl player or a guy at 50% and another at 30%? You're at 80% chance of success either way but you only have a 20% chance fail rate keeping the pick and 120% fail rate trading back.

Hmmm, I think my math sucks.

If you were all knowing you would always trade back and grab the great prospect. Since we aren't all knowing I certainly understand taking the pick more likely to succeed over two lesser picks who more likely become just guys, which we have a team full of already.

If you trade back and draft well or you stay put and draft well you will succeed. If you stay put and draft poorly or trade back and draft poorly you will fail. So the most important thing is to not screw up your picks, not the shuffling around.

Thank you for your time, I'll now send you back to your regularly scheduled debating.


Your math was horrible, but at least I knew exactly what you meant, lol.

My personal opinion is that (barring a top QB prospect) your chances of having a GREAT overall draft are better with a higher number of top end picks, as in picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

Yes, each individual pick technically has a lesser % chance of being a "hit" than the higher pick, but you also have a chance of hitting on multiple picks rather than just that 1. I think that is what gives THIS team the best chance to be successful in the foreseeable future.

As you said, if you draft well you will be good. If you draft poorly like we have, you will be a laughing stock like we are.

I just think if you have a high pick like we do, trade it down AND draft well, you can greatly expedite your rebuild.


I agree.

As a practical matter, I do not think that we will make a splash in FA this year (too soon) which means that no matter how well we do in adding talent through the draft we probably will not win more than 5-7 games (at the high end) this season, which will not put us in position next year to get the "franchise QB" that we need.

This is a year to fill as many holes as we can (mostly on D) and this is the kind of draft in which we can do it. Stockpile picks to go after our "franchise QB" next year by trading down with a vengeance this year to gain enough ammo to get whichever QB we want next year.

If we burn a high pick in the draft or through trade on what most likely will not be a "franchise QB" (why is it that every time that I am forced to use these words I think: Holy Grail?) this year, we only will be setting the rebuild back.
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Bonanza23


Joined: 10 Nov 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bruceb wrote:
duke2056 wrote:
Thomas5737 wrote:
duke2056 wrote:
I would still much rather have several chances at top of the draft talent than a "can't miss", unless it is a QB that is can't miss.

I firmly feel that more good picks rather than one great pick increases the chances that this team will be good at some point in the next few years.
I don't mean doing it EVERY year, but last year IMO went just fine with it, and I would like to see them do it again this time around.

Heck, I am fine with them trading back BOTH first round picks and entering 2018 with three 1sts, then let the good times roll.

I think we would still draft one or two good players this year along with a few halfway decent players, sign some guys, and enter 2018 with a nice outlook.

If you guys are still wanting to win and be a playoff team in 2017, you are dreaming. The only way we could do that is to sign all the FAs, likely to all bad contracts, and screw ourselves for 2018 and beyond. Rather not do that.


It's a numbers game and there is no correct answer. Do you draft a guy who has an 80% chance of being a pro bowl player or a guy at 50% and another at 30%? You're at 80% chance of success either way but you only have a 20% chance fail rate keeping the pick and 120% fail rate trading back.

Hmmm, I think my math sucks.

If you were all knowing you would always trade back and grab the great prospect. Since we aren't all knowing I certainly understand taking the pick more likely to succeed over two lesser picks who more likely become just guys, which we have a team full of already.

If you trade back and draft well or you stay put and draft well you will succeed. If you stay put and draft poorly or trade back and draft poorly you will fail. So the most important thing is to not screw up your picks, not the shuffling around.

Thank you for your time, I'll now send you back to your regularly scheduled debating.


Your math was horrible, but at least I knew exactly what you meant, lol.

My personal opinion is that (barring a top QB prospect) your chances of having a GREAT overall draft are better with a higher number of top end picks, as in picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

Yes, each individual pick technically has a lesser % chance of being a "hit" than the higher pick, but you also have a chance of hitting on multiple picks rather than just that 1. I think that is what gives THIS team the best chance to be successful in the foreseeable future.

As you said, if you draft well you will be good. If you draft poorly like we have, you will be a laughing stock like we are.

I just think if you have a high pick like we do, trade it down AND draft well, you can greatly expedite your rebuild.


I agree.

As a practical matter, I do not think that we will make a splash in FA this year (too soon) which means that no matter how well we do in adding talent through the draft we probably will not win more than 5-7 games (at the high end) this season, which will not put us in position next year to get the "franchise QB" that we need.

This is a year to fill as many holes as we can (mostly on D) and this is the kind of draft in which we can do it. Stockpile picks to go after our "franchise QB" next year by trading down with a vengeance this year to gain enough ammo to get whichever QB we want next year.

If we burn a high pick in the draft or through trade on what most likely will not be a "franchise QB" (why is it that every time that I am forced to use these words I think: Holy Grail?) this year, we only will be setting the rebuild back.


Oh how interesting! So we are practically in agreement. Weirdly enough I have been advocating trading down with one of our picks this year to gain ammo to move up next year to grab our QOTF. That is if they don't feel that guy is there this year. Hmmmm. So I guess next year you will be screaming for said QB?

Oh and I have to ask, what QB are you targeting next Year? Is said QB declaring? Will said QB break his ankle and fall? Will he get exposed with more film on him? Easy questions as we know exactly what to expect. Yes?

Or are we going to be exactly where we are today? Next years class is better than this years. We should trade down and draft a guy next year. Next year will be better, I'm sure of it.
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pnies20


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we can't resign Pryor and Collins I bet we trade down yet again.
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buno67


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pnies20 wrote:
If we can't resign Pryor and Collins I bet we trade down yet again.


No way the Browns lose both. One of them will get the franchise tag. I would almost franchise tag Collins to make sure he is 100% certain to be back but go after Pryor with a great offer.
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pnies20


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 1:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

buno67 wrote:
pnies20 wrote:
If we can't resign Pryor and Collins I bet we trade down yet again.


No way the Browns lose both. One of them will get the franchise tag. I would almost franchise tag Collins to make sure he is 100% certain to be back but go after Pryor with a great offer.


I think we have a chance to resign both. I can see them throwing 40-50 mil at each.
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LETSGOBROWNIES


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

buno67 wrote:
pnies20 wrote:
If we can't resign Pryor and Collins I bet we trade down yet again.


No way the Browns lose both. One of them will get the franchise tag. I would almost franchise tag Collins to make sure he is 100% certain to be back but go after Pryor with a great offer.


The front office would look awful if that happened and a lot of fans would lose it, especially considering they have nine figures in cap space.

They almost have to overpay one of them and franchise the other at a minimum, at least until they can draft and develop someone to replace them.
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nugpimpen


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pnies20 wrote:
buno67 wrote:
pnies20 wrote:
If we can't resign Pryor and Collins I bet we trade down yet again.


No way the Browns lose both. One of them will get the franchise tag. I would almost franchise tag Collins to make sure he is 100% certain to be back but go after Pryor with a great offer.


I think we have a chance to resign both. I can see them throwing 40-50 mil at each.


Perfectly fine with that. More so for Collins, but IDC if we give it to Pryor as well.
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Browns1987


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would only trade it to the 49ers and Bears if it means I get their 2nd and 3rd this year and two future 1st.
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bruceb


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bonanza23 wrote:
bruceb wrote:
duke2056 wrote:
Thomas5737 wrote:
duke2056 wrote:
I would still much rather have several chances at top of the draft talent than a "can't miss", unless it is a QB that is can't miss.

I firmly feel that more good picks rather than one great pick increases the chances that this team will be good at some point in the next few years.
I don't mean doing it EVERY year, but last year IMO went just fine with it, and I would like to see them do it again this time around.

Heck, I am fine with them trading back BOTH first round picks and entering 2018 with three 1sts, then let the good times roll.

I think we would still draft one or two good players this year along with a few halfway decent players, sign some guys, and enter 2018 with a nice outlook.

If you guys are still wanting to win and be a playoff team in 2017, you are dreaming. The only way we could do that is to sign all the FAs, likely to all bad contracts, and screw ourselves for 2018 and beyond. Rather not do that.


It's a numbers game and there is no correct answer. Do you draft a guy who has an 80% chance of being a pro bowl player or a guy at 50% and another at 30%? You're at 80% chance of success either way but you only have a 20% chance fail rate keeping the pick and 120% fail rate trading back.

Hmmm, I think my math sucks.

If you were all knowing you would always trade back and grab the great prospect. Since we aren't all knowing I certainly understand taking the pick more likely to succeed over two lesser picks who more likely become just guys, which we have a team full of already.

If you trade back and draft well or you stay put and draft well you will succeed. If you stay put and draft poorly or trade back and draft poorly you will fail. So the most important thing is to not screw up your picks, not the shuffling around.

Thank you for your time, I'll now send you back to your regularly scheduled debating.


Your math was horrible, but at least I knew exactly what you meant, lol.

My personal opinion is that (barring a top QB prospect) your chances of having a GREAT overall draft are better with a higher number of top end picks, as in picks in the 1st and 2nd rounds.

Yes, each individual pick technically has a lesser % chance of being a "hit" than the higher pick, but you also have a chance of hitting on multiple picks rather than just that 1. I think that is what gives THIS team the best chance to be successful in the foreseeable future.

As you said, if you draft well you will be good. If you draft poorly like we have, you will be a laughing stock like we are.

I just think if you have a high pick like we do, trade it down AND draft well, you can greatly expedite your rebuild.


I agree.

As a practical matter, I do not think that we will make a splash in FA this year (too soon) which means that no matter how well we do in adding talent through the draft we probably will not win more than 5-7 games (at the high end) this season, which will not put us in position next year to get the "franchise QB" that we need.

This is a year to fill as many holes as we can (mostly on D) and this is the kind of draft in which we can do it. Stockpile picks to go after our "franchise QB" next year by trading down with a vengeance this year to gain enough ammo to get whichever QB we want next year.

If we burn a high pick in the draft or through trade on what most likely will not be a "franchise QB" (why is it that every time that I am forced to use these words I think: Holy Grail?) this year, we only will be setting the rebuild back.


Oh how interesting! So we are practically in agreement. Weirdly enough I have been advocating trading down with one of our picks this year to gain ammo to move up next year to grab our QOTF. That is if they don't feel that guy is there this year. Hmmmm. So I guess next year you will be screaming for said QB?

Oh and I have to ask, what QB are you targeting next Year? Is said QB declaring? Will said QB break his ankle and fall? Will he get exposed with more film on him? Easy questions as we know exactly what to expect. Yes?

Or are we going to be exactly where we are today? Next years class is better than this years. We should trade down and draft a guy next year. Next year will be better, I'm sure of it.


Maybe, if he is there to be had without having to give up anything/a whole lot. Otherwise, not.

This is a scorched earth rebuild.

No need to be impatient.
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H2ThaIzzo


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Browns1987 wrote:
I would only trade it to the 49ers and Bears if it means I get their 2nd and 3rd this year and two future 1st.


yeah, thats not happening.

lets say hypothetically that whatever the top 4 ranked guys on our draft board are ranked say, 96, 94, 93, 91 on a 100 scale. It's not worth it, even if we pick up an additional second round pick, to slide down a couple of spots and still be able to draft a guy that we have ranked almost as high as the #1 guy on our board?

look, i don't care what anyone says at this point, and i could care less that none of our draft picks from 2016 were ranked as top 10 players to watch or whatever. Eric Mangini tried this method before with us, and it didn't work. It didn't work because he overdrafted players based on liking their personalities and their potential, even if they didn't produce to a high level in college. Our guys are doing something different now, and its not just "analytics". Maybe it is, because you can turn every decision into an analytics argument. For example, in a business where only 50% or so of your drafted players will pan out, they identified that hitting on 5-10 is still better than only hitting on 4-8. They also targeted players that put up some monster statistics while in college. They took guys like Higgins, who had a ton of receptions and yards in his college career. Corey Coleman who was one of the best producers in college. Nassib who dominated as a senior. Ogbah who was a monster against the pass. Etc. We will miss on picks, everyone does, but 5-10 is better than 4-8.

Since 2006, here is a list of the teams who drafted top 2
2006 1. Houston (-Mario Williams-) 2. New Orleans (*Reggie Bush*)
2007 1. Oakland (+Jamarcus Russell+) 2. Detroit (Calvin Johnson)
2008 1.Miami Dolphins (*Jake Long*) 2. St Louis (*Chris Long*)
2009 1.Detroit (Matt Stafford) 2. St Louis (*Jason Smith*)
2010 1. St Louis (Sam Bradford) 2. Detroit (-Ndamukong Suh-)
2011 1. Carolina (Cam Newton) 2. Denver Broncos (Von Miller)
2012 1. Indianapolis (Andrew Luck) 2. Washington (*Robert Griffin*)
2013 1. Kansas City (Eric Fisher) 2. Jacksonville (*Luke Joeckel*)
2014 1. Houston (Jadaveon Clowney) 2. St Louis (*Greg Robinson*)
2015 1. Tampa Bay (Jameis Winston) 2. Tennessee (Marcus Mariotta)
2016 1. St Louis/LA (Jared Goff) 2. Philly (from Cle) (Carson Wentz)

St Louis and Detroit were drafting top 2 a lot. Houston did it twice. 9 of the players don't play for the team that drafted them now, and a few aren't even in the league now.
Detroit made the playoffs 3 times winning no games since 2006.
St Louis hasn't made the playoffs since 2004.
Oakland made the playoffs for the first time since 2002 this season.
Dolphins made playoffs in 2008 and this year.

There are a few successful teams on the above list, New Orleans won a Super Bowl (had more to do with getting a HOF QB in free agency than Reggie Bush), Indy (worst season in franchise history gets them their next franchise QB, better to be lucky than good), KC

out of 22 drafted players, only about 1/3 of them have really maximized their teams performances and helped them become good, or, even if not good teams had league leading numbers (Calvin Johnson). 1 out of 3 ended up being "maybe" what we thought they would be.

We dog these guys for using analytics to determine whats best for our future, yet analytics would show us that we actually have more risk of missing our pick by staying where we are at rather than trading and accumulating more.

You're telling me that, if fate had it that the Oakland Raiders wanted to move up and take Bortles, the #1 rated QB in the 2014 class at the time, and had to move up to #1 to get him, that Houston wouldn't gladly trade #1 just for Oakland's #5 and #36 picks, used on Mack and Carr? We can't fear trading back and getting picks just because most of the picks haven't worked out for us. The chart above shows statistically, that even staying in the top 2 picks it's going to be a coin toss as to whether the player we take pans out or not.
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duke2056


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bonanza23 wrote:


Oh how interesting! So we are practically in agreement. Weirdly enough I have been advocating trading down with one of our picks this year to gain ammo to move up next year to grab our QOTF. That is if they don't feel that guy is there this year. Hmmmm. So I guess next year you will be screaming for said QB?

Oh and I have to ask, what QB are you targeting next Year? Is said QB declaring? Will said QB break his ankle and fall? Will he get exposed with more film on him? Easy questions as we know exactly what to expect. Yes?

Or are we going to be exactly where we are today? Next years class is better than this years. We should trade down and draft a guy next year. Next year will be better, I'm sure of it.


It's simple. If they do not feel there is a QB worth taking at the top of the draft this year, trade back to try and set yourself up for that possibility next year.

If the same situation arises again, well, repeat what you do this year.

Same situation in 2019? Repeat again.

Worst case scenario is you never land that QB at the top of the draft, but keep gaining extra QUALITY picks.

Best case, you land that QB.

If they use pick 12 to do this, I see no downside. Even if we pass on what turns out to be a great player at 12, if we use that pick to trade down year after year we will add a "free" 1st or 2nd rounder to our team every season until we decide to stop trading one of our two 1st round picks.
_________________
2014 draft prediction:

Zero chance the Browns draft a QB at pick 4, or trade up for a QB.

And Matt Ryan is so great he has one playoff win.
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