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HTTRG3Dynasty


Joined: 03 Apr 2012
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
FosterTheSkins wrote:
naptownskinsfan wrote:
I don't get the Gus Bradley love at all. The Jaguars defense wasn't anything special with him down there, they did essentially what we did. Not only that, but the segment of Redskins fans who don't want any "crony" hire couldn't get closer to that hire than Bradley- not only did he work with both Allen and Gruden in TB, but also with McCloughan in Seattle.


The Jaguars defense finished at sixth overall this year. That is considerably better than The Redskins who petered out at twenty-eight, in the bottom four.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1


That's just yards per game against though, which doesn't tell you all that much. The Jags ranked 13th in weighted DVOA and 25th in points per game against.

I do think it's unfair to judge what he will do as a coordinator based on what he did as a head coach though. Otherwise, Wade Phillips would be considered a bad hire too. Same with Pettine.
Points per game don't necessarily tell you how good a defense is or isn't. Special teams can give up big plays or even Tds. Offenses can be inept, have turnovers that give opposing teams fumble recoveries for Tds or in Jax case int returns for Tds. "Bortles service" threw some horrible ints this year and that led to the Jax defense being put in some horrible spots.


Yes, there is no perfect raw stat, which is why I also included weighted DVOA, which is an advanced metric that takes a lot of different raw stats into account.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
FosterTheSkins wrote:
naptownskinsfan wrote:
I don't get the Gus Bradley love at all. The Jaguars defense wasn't anything special with him down there, they did essentially what we did. Not only that, but the segment of Redskins fans who don't want any "crony" hire couldn't get closer to that hire than Bradley- not only did he work with both Allen and Gruden in TB, but also with McCloughan in Seattle.


The Jaguars defense finished at sixth overall this year. That is considerably better than The Redskins who petered out at twenty-eight, in the bottom four.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=TOTAL_YARDS_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1


That's just yards per game against though, which doesn't tell you all that much. The Jags ranked 13th in weighted DVOA and 25th in points per game against.

I do think it's unfair to judge what he will do as a coordinator based on what he did as a head coach though. Otherwise, Wade Phillips would be considered a bad hire too. Same with Pettine.
Points per game don't necessarily tell you how good a defense is or isn't. Special teams can give up big plays or even Tds. Offenses can be inept, have turnovers that give opposing teams fumble recoveries for Tds or in Jax case int returns for Tds. "Bortles service" threw some horrible ints this year and that led to the Jax defense being put in some horrible spots.


Yes, there is no perfect raw stat, which is why I also included weighted DVOA, which is an advanced metric that takes a lot of different raw stats into account.
True, and if we do what the jags did and sign a major DL upgrade and FS upgrade and use our top 2 draft picks on our defense, I expect we'll have a top 15 D in DVOA also or even top 10 because our offense is better than the jags.
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HTTRG3Dynasty


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A well done season review, which includes some stats on DC candidates.
Quote:

New Defensive Coordinator Stats- So I know I said this would be more about reflecting on last season than looking ahead to the next one, but the search for the new defensive coordinator was too tempting for me to pass up. Anyways, I wanted to see which candidate with coordinator or head coaching experience (this excludes Steve Wilks) has had the best career ranking stats. The other names tied to the Redskins besides Wilks are Gus Bradley, Mike Pettine and current OLB coach Greg Manusky. Wade Philips is a dark horse, but I chose not to include him A) because it seems unlikely that he leave Denver for a team that spurned him the last go around and B) I'm pretty positive he would have the best numbers.

DC Average Ranks Yards Points DVOA Average
Mike Pettine 11.0 15.0 8.7 11.6
Greg Manusky 18.3 17.7 17.4 17.8
Gus Bradley 17.6 20.4 18.6 18.9

Pettine has the best average yardage, points, DVOA and average (yes, this is an average of averages) rankings of the group. If you take away has time as the Browns head coach (2014-2015) then the rankings jump to 5.4, 13.4, 4.2 and 7.6 respectively. If you do the same with Gus Bradley's four years with the Jaguars, the only average ranking that significantly moves for him is points (20.4 to 14.5). Mike Pettine has clearly had the most success of any of the Redskins' top defensive coordinator candidates.

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Doc Draper


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
A well done season review, which includes some stats on DC candidates.
Quote:

New Defensive Coordinator Stats- So I know I said this would be more about reflecting on last season than looking ahead to the next one, but the search for the new defensive coordinator was too tempting for me to pass up. Anyways, I wanted to see which candidate with coordinator or head coaching experience (this excludes Steve Wilks) has had the best career ranking stats. The other names tied to the Redskins besides Wilks are Gus Bradley, Mike Pettine and current OLB coach Greg Manusky. Wade Philips is a dark horse, but I chose not to include him A) because it seems unlikely that he leave Denver for a team that spurned him the last go around and B) I'm pretty positive he would have the best numbers.

DC Average Ranks Yards Points DVOA Average
Mike Pettine 11.0 15.0 8.7 11.6
Greg Manusky 18.3 17.7 17.4 17.8
Gus Bradley 17.6 20.4 18.6 18.9

Pettine has the best average yardage, points, DVOA and average (yes, this is an average of averages) rankings of the group. If you take away has time as the Browns head coach (2014-2015) then the rankings jump to 5.4, 13.4, 4.2 and 7.6 respectively. If you do the same with Gus Bradley's four years with the Jaguars, the only average ranking that significantly moves for him is points (20.4 to 14.5). Mike Pettine has clearly had the most success of any of the Redskins' top defensive coordinator candidates.


This is good stuff. Its so hard to compare DC's because you have to consider talent etc.. One thing I also like to see is a comparison between their first two years with the previous year under the former DC. Lets get one of our Football Forum grad students on this research Smile

Former defense coordinator ranking for team defense
Candidate, year 1 ranking, year 2 ranking
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HTTRG3Dynasty


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gus Bradley is in the building right now.
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mar29020


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

skins sure are taking their time. they dont even care about wade phillips smfh. vance joseph was hired by denver and i believe he wants gus bradley as his DC. the Redskins really make some questionable decisions.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mar29020 wrote:
skins sure are taking their time. they dont even care about wade phillips smfh. vance joseph was hired by denver and i believe he wants gus bradley as his DC. the Redskins really make some questionable decisions.
There are a lot of HC positions that aren't filled yet and some of these guys maybe candidates for them. I think once those are filled, we'll hire a DC within a day or two.

@john_keim
Quote:
Former Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley is meeting with the Redskins today about their vacant defensive... es.pn/2j8CoLb

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Last edited by turtle28 on Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doc Draper wrote:
HTTRG3Dynasty wrote:
A well done season review, which includes some stats on DC candidates.
Quote:

New Defensive Coordinator Stats- So I know I said this would be more about reflecting on last season than looking ahead to the next one, but the search for the new defensive coordinator was too tempting for me to pass up. Anyways, I wanted to see which candidate with coordinator or head coaching experience (this excludes Steve Wilks) has had the best career ranking stats. The other names tied to the Redskins besides Wilks are Gus Bradley, Mike Pettine and current OLB coach Greg Manusky. Wade Philips is a dark horse, but I chose not to include him A) because it seems unlikely that he leave Denver for a team that spurned him the last go around and B) I'm pretty positive he would have the best numbers.

DC Average Ranks Yards Points DVOA Average
Mike Pettine 11.0 15.0 8.7 11.6
Greg Manusky 18.3 17.7 17.4 17.8
Gus Bradley 17.6 20.4 18.6 18.9

Pettine has the best average yardage, points, DVOA and average (yes, this is an average of averages) rankings of the group. If you take away has time as the Browns head coach (2014-2015) then the rankings jump to 5.4, 13.4, 4.2 and 7.6 respectively. If you do the same with Gus Bradley's four years with the Jaguars, the only average ranking that significantly moves for him is points (20.4 to 14.5). Mike Pettine has clearly had the most success of any of the Redskins' top defensive coordinator candidates.


This is good stuff. Its so hard to compare DC's because you have to consider talent etc.. One thing I also like to see is a comparison between their first two years with the previous year under the former DC. Lets get one of our Football Forum grad students on this research Smile

Former defense coordinator ranking for team defense
Candidate, year 1 ranking, year 2 ranking
Gojng to be hard to compare our new DC vs our last two of we sign one or two big name FAs to our D and spend our first two or three picks on the defense and a few of those start also. I guess the only way would be to compare individual performances from this past year to next year. Like say Baker, RJF, Hood, Lanier & Ioannidis are back - do they look a lot better next year vs this year.

If Compton, Foster, Spaight and Garvin are our ILBs, do they look better?

Same with Kerrigan, Murph & Smith; Breeland, Fuller, Norman, Dunbar, Blackmon and Everrett.

If those all make it to next training camp, preseason and Reg season.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

‪Report: Panthers will promote Wilks to defensive coordinator

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/01/11/report-panthers-will-promote-wilks-to-defensive-coordinator/ via @ProFootballTalk‬
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ripsean21


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I personally think Petine is the best choice to hire. I like Bradley as I'm okay with going back to a 4/3. But I just don't see us going after Wade as we have just had a million chances but we just don't. So between these two I go Petine. He has alittle attitude and he is known for getting more out of maybe less talented units. That said if we miss out on these 2 and promote Manuskey we have officially failed again at this search and we will be changing staff in the next year or 2!!!
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A TRAIN 89


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think its most likely gonna be Gus Bradley. When the Skins want a guy, they get him. I'm not completely sold on him, but he is definitely an upgrade from what we had.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ripsean21 wrote:
I personally think Petine is the best choice to hire. I like Bradley as I'm okay with going back to a 4/3. But I just don't see us going after Wade as we have just had a million chances but we just don't. So between these two I go Petine. He has alittle attitude and he is known for getting more out of maybe less talented units. That said if we miss out on these 2 and promote Manuskey we have officially failed again at this search and we will be changing staff in the next year or 2!!!
agrees
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naptownskinsfan


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A TRAIN 89 wrote:
I think its most likely gonna be Gus Bradley. When the Skins want a guy, they get him. I'm not completely sold on him, but he is definitely an upgrade from what we had.


He's another crony hire for Gruden, but the difference in this case is that SM also has worked with Bradley. The whole crony hires don't really bother me like some, just want to point this out. Bradley is not expected to come out of the meeting today with a contract

Looks like Steve Wilks is out too, since the Bills hired Sean McDermott, the Panthers are promoting him to DC so the only way to get him out of there is to offer a HC job.

I imagine that we interview at least one more guy in addition to Bradley and Pettine, and then make a decision.
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mike23md


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

naptownskinsfan wrote:
A TRAIN 89 wrote:
I think its most likely gonna be Gus Bradley. When the Skins want a guy, they get him. I'm not completely sold on him, but he is definitely an upgrade from what we had.


He's another crony hire for Gruden, but the difference in this case is that SM also has worked with Bradley. The whole crony hires don't really bother me like some, just want to point this out. Bradley is not expected to come out of the meeting today with a contract

Looks like Steve Wilks is out too, since the Bills hired Sean McDermott, the Panthers are promoting him to DC so the only way to get him out of there is to offer a HC job.

I imagine that we interview at least one more guy in addition to Bradley and Pettine, and then make a decision.


This is where I didn't want a guy to be the DC who had just come from being a HC somewhere. Pettine is fine because he has been gone from HC for a year.

Bradley I like, but still was skeptical because he was a HC.

Jay seems like he is finally settling in and getting comfortable as a HC so I would hate to see another HC wannabe come in here as DC and overshadow Gruden or create rifts.
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HTTRG3Dynasty


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

YES. Make it happen!!!

Carol Maloney ‏@carolmaloney4
Quote:
The #Redskins are interviewing Wade Phillips for DC tomorrow in Ashburn. More on @nbcwashington in a few mins.

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