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Nates 2017 Mock 1.0

 
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nathan004


Joined: 12 Feb 2014
Posts: 1481
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:52 pm    Post subject: Nates 2017 Mock 1.0 Reply with quote

Season is officially over for the Bucs and it was definitely an encouraging season. 2-14 to 6-10 and now a 9-7 team narrowly missing out on the playoffs, it's safe to say this team is headed in the right direction. Looking forward to the 2017 offseason, it's time to address the several needs facing this roster in Free agency and then on to the draft. Keep in mind that I/we are no Cap experts but I added signing just for fun. Go easy on those as I am sure they will be much different than anything you or I could concoct.


First things first, the cuts

Vincent Jackson - Retired.
One of the few success stories of the free agent Dominik era. He will be missed in the locker room.

Gosder Cherilus - Not re-signed.
Fought injuries most of his career and couldn't find a long term home after being drafted by Detroit. Major liability at RT.

Chris Conte - Not re-signed.
Started off horrifically but bounced back in a 3 game stretch but disappeared again. He never really contributed positively to the defense and frankly, Tandy is just better.

Doug Martin - Released.
Without knowing the full details of what this would do to the cap, I do know that this will void up to $7M worth of guarantees so the dead money aspect is significantly lowered if the Bucs choose to release him. With 2 monster seasons overshadowed by 3 subpar, injury ridden and suspension ending year in 2016 the Bucs may choose to move forward with Jacquizz and Barber as their starting duo while looking towards a top heavy RB draft in 2017.

Alterraun Verner - Released.
With one year left on his contract but no guarantees, there is no cap hit in release the veteran CB that came in as a Pro Bowl DB but provided less than satisfactory returns. $6.5M added to the already massive cap number.

Misc cuts
Cecil Shorts (Injury settlement)
Brandon Myers
Josh Huff

Lost to FA

Mike Glennon - We all knew this one was going to happen whether it was last year via trade or to a thirsty QB need team.

Will Gholston - Young and solid against the run. Came on strong during the peaking period of the Bucs defense this year. Should fetch better value on the market than what Tampa will want to pay for him.


Re-signs and Contract Extensions

Mike Evans - Ya. The big dog is gonna eat. Mike Evans was simply dominant this year and if he had any help outside of Brate and Humphries. 6th in recs. 4th in rec yards. tied for 2nd in TDs and ran away with 1st down conversion receptions by 30 more than the next best. Only 23 years old and a key cog to the growth of this offense and making James Winston a better QB, it's time to lock him up for the next half decade. Contract total - 5 years $65M, $30M guaranteed at signing. (Compared and 2nd only to Julio Jones)

Cameron Brate - Our Red Zone machine. Leading the league in TDs by a TE this year and a favorite target for Winston, it will be important to keep the productive pieces together to maintain continuity and growth within the offense. Brate is only 25 and has many years of productivity ahead of him. 4 years $6.5M, $2M guaranteed at signing.

Adam Humphries - After Evans, the WR position is razor thin. Humph was the only consistent and reliable WR target after Evans and brings additional value in the return game. Resigned to a small, but healthy deal. 2 years $3M $350k guaranteed at signing.

Jacquizz Rodgers - From a productivity standpoint, Quizzicality was easily the teams best RB. Losing Martin will require this team to keep him. Good for Quizzicality coming off the couch and blowing up the rushing attack. Pay him enough to keep him around and to let him know the team is wanting more. 2 years $5M, $1M guaranteed at signing.

Bradley McDougald - This will be the definition of "prove it" deals. Coming off an impressive end to the 2014 season, Bradley was expected to be the answer at FS. He left a lot to be desired in 2015 and didn't overly impress in 2016. Safety will most likely be addressed still this offseason but depth at the position is a must. 2 years $2M, $250k guaranteed at signing.

Misc signings and Practice Squad players
Joe Hawley (Depth and OL continuity)
Daryl Smith (1 year ext. Could retire)
Jude Adjei-Barimah (Depth)
Akeem Spence (Depth)
Jacquies Smith (Depth and productive when healthy)
Andre DePaola (Only viable LS on the roster)
Josh Robinson (CB depth and Special teams Ace)
Adarious Glanton (Depth)
Donteaa Dye (Depth)
Russell Shepard (Depth)
Ryan Russell (Depth)


2017 Free Agency

Eric Berry - $5 years $55M, $22M guaranteed at signing (comparing to Devin McCourty). 2nd highest per season earning at Safety. Berry will move McDougald in to a complimentary role or sub package defender and pair up with Keith Tandy to form a solid back end to a budding defense. Since day one, Bucs fans and undoubtedly Bucs staff knew the safety position needed to be addressed.

Ricky Wagner - 5 years $32M $15m guaranteed at signing. Cherilus and Dotson is enough to warrant an upgrade at RT and this move won’t break the bank or require an OL shuffle. Makes too much sense not to target Wagner at this point.

Kenny Stills - 4 years $4M, $500k guaranteed at signing. Speed is needed on this team and Stills will come fairly affordably. With Landry and Parker the mainstays in MIA, they will probably let Stills walk instead of overpaying him and mold Caroo in to his replacement.


2017 NFL DRAFT
Pick 19 - **TRADE** Tampa Bay trades their 19th overall to the Green Bay Packers. Packers move up to draft Dalvin Cook which surprises and shocks most Bucs fans who probably would’ve been elated to draft him at 19. While he wouldn’t be a wasted pick, this draft is too deep at the RB position to spend a 1st rounder on. Get starters elsewhere now and upgrade the RB spot in 2-3 round. Bucs acquire GB’s #26 pick and 2017 3rd.

26th pick - Solomon Thomas DL Stanford.
Round 2 - **TRADE** Bucs move up to early 2nd and offer their 2nd 4th and 5th to Chicago and draft OJ Howard TE Alabama
Round 3 - Samaje Perine RB Oklahoma
Round 3 (Via GB) - Dede Westbrook WR Oklahoma

Depth Chart

QB - Winston, Griffin
RB - Rodgers, Barber, Perine
FB - Cross
WR1 - Evans, Shepard
WR2 - Stills, Westbrook
Slot - Humphries, Westbrook
TE1 - Brate, Cross
TE2 - Howard, Stocker
LT - D Smith, Wester
LG - Sweezy, Pamphile
OC - Hawley, E Smith
RG - Marpet, Benonoch
RT - Wagner, Dotson

LE - N Spence, Thomas
UT - McCoy, A Spence
DT - McDonald, Thomas
RE - Ayers, Russell
SLB - Da Smith, Glanton
MLB - Alexander
WLB - David
CB1 - Grimes
CB2 - Hargreaves
Nickel - JAB, Robinson
FS - Berry
SS - Tandy

I wanted weapons for Winston first and foremost. Stills brought speed and veteran presence at a bargain though he could end up getting paid more. I felt the need to move up for Howard instead of holding off for an Engram because I wanted the combination of size and speed (a la Reed). We have a pass target TE in Brate already but Howard can block and is a massive target in the middle. All other TE's in this draft didn't bring any other attribute than as a WR. Aside from that, I put little to no value in anything 5th round or later. The percentage of finding that diamond in the rough is razor thin by the 5th. Perine will be a steal in the 3rd and I'll just leave it at that. Westbrook I hope would bring an extra threat and eventually work his way to #2 WR.

On the Defensive side, I think it's a win if we get Berry by any means. Top defensive target out there and with Tandy cementing his spot at SS our Safety core is now a strength. Soloman Thomas is a Robert Ayers mold. Can play inside but will play DE for the majority of his time. Needed to get tougher up front.

Probably first of many Mocks. Interested to hear thoughts.
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indifference


Joined: 08 Nov 2010
Posts: 3224
PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Awesome off-season, please email this Jason Licht. With removing Martin and Cook sitting right in our grasps MAN would that be hard to pass up on. Especially since you addressed the OL and safety needs in FA. I LOVE Solomon Thomas and could not decide if I wanted him or Cook. Like you I went with the former. This a deep RB class can find good value later. Thomas is the future replacement for Ayers. I like him a lot as an inside pass rusher too next to McCoy. Stills and Westbrook gives us play makers on the outside Winston will be thankful for.
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deuces22wild


Joined: 07 Apr 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice work.

Berry's contract is probably $10,000,000 short and Stills contract is probably $20,000,000 short.
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nathan004


Joined: 12 Feb 2014
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

deuces22wild wrote:
Nice work.

Berry's contract is probably $10,000,000 short and Stills contract is probably $20,000,000 short.


Thanks. And I honestly have so clue about their contracts and how they shouldnor will be formed. I could only compare them to current contracts open to players similar to them.

That being said I think Stills comes at a bargain. Did enough to warrant a raise from his current contract with Miami but I don't think he's gonna break the bank either.
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REDandPEWTER


Joined: 31 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My only thing with this is you say the Dolphins won't over pay for stills but why should we lol ?

Honestly If we shell out cash for a receiver, maybe Kendall wright at a Sanu type deal ? I honestly prefer Corey Davis in round 1

Overall nice job. I can be on board with it.
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scottonatable


Joined: 24 Dec 2007
Posts: 1351
PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love the FA would jump up and down for berry!!

The draft I am not a fan to be honest. Main reason 2nd move looks very un realistic, for the fact Howard will be a first rounder and the bucs will be giving up a lot.

Would rather the bucs roll the dice and trade up for Mike Williams, Derek Barnett both would seem to help the bucs a lot. Then if we still have our 2nd or 3rd round pick for example
1st round Mike Williams 3rd round Ashawn Hand Bama (brute to put next to McCoy)
OR
1st Derek Barnett from Tenn. ( 3 straight seasons of 10+ sacks )
3rd Malachi Dupree WR LSU ( never had a solid QB )


personally I feel like getting another WR is a must even with stills who has a case of the drops.
Barnett could be the gem of this class 4 years from now
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nathan004


Joined: 12 Feb 2014
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

REDandPEWTER wrote:
My only thing with this is you say the Dolphins won't over pay for stills but why should we lol ?

Honestly If we shell out cash for a receiver, maybe Kendall wright at a Sanu type deal ? I honestly prefer Corey Davis in round 1

Overall nice job. I can be on board with it.


lol I got one person I under sold Stills by $20M and another saying we overpaid? I can't win!! But makes sense. I honestly don't know how contracts will play out. Just a added tidbit to these mocks. Probably miles off. But I think that his contract is definitely a bargain for a speedy 26 year old journeyman who had a pretty solid season with the Dolphins.

I could definitely roll with Davis too and probably will have a change of heart once FA actually completes. Ross is quickly losing steam for me though.

If we get some decent players in FA and have he opportunity to trade down I might just take OJ Howard in the 1st. He's high on my board.
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nathan004


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

scottonatable wrote:
I love the FA would jump up and down for berry!!

The draft I am not a fan to be honest. Main reason 2nd move looks very un realistic, for the fact Howard will be a first rounder and the bucs will be giving up a lot.

Would rather the bucs roll the dice and trade up for Mike Williams, Derek Barnett both would seem to help the bucs a lot. Then if we still have our 2nd or 3rd round pick for example
1st round Mike Williams 3rd round Ashawn Hand Bama (brute to put next to McCoy)
OR
1st Derek Barnett from Tenn. ( 3 straight seasons of 10+ sacks )
3rd Malachi Dupree WR LSU ( never had a solid QB )


personally I feel like getting another WR is a must even with stills who has a case of the drops.
Barnett could be the gem of this class 4 years from now


If you think moving up in the 2nd by giving up a 4th and 5th is expensive then don't you think moving up to get Mike williams would be astronomically higher?

I don't argue Howard is a bit of a reach. Figured worst case is early 2nd which was why I projected a trade up necessary for him. I also agree on Barnett but he's definitely someone who is a top 15 possibility. Thomas is a realist pick in the early to mid 20's. Also like Dupree. Debated between him and Westbrook.
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indifference


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Highly doubt Howard gets chosen in the first round. The production just isn't there to justify it. He MAY go late first for a team in need but I expect him to run a 4.7 40 at the combine and be there in round 2.
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