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Overanalyze? ME? No way!

 
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draftspot


Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 26
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 5:21 am    Post subject: Overanalyze? ME? No way! Reply with quote

Obviously this is just me playing GM, and I’m not saying it’s a prediction, just my take:


***If Ginn can’t run before the draft, he could fall to the bottom of the 1st, since most of the teams looking WR need more of an immediate impact type on offense…and with such a talented draft, it might be hard for teams not to look at other more polished prospects.

That being said…

**Trade our #27 overall, a 2nd round in ’08, and CB Jason Craft to New England for #24 overall, DE Marquise Hill, and WR Jabar Gaffney.

+Marquise Hill
A local product will help make Grant expendable. Projected by the media to get cut again this spring, he’s a 6’6”300 lbs. 24 year old who hasn’t lived up to his 2nd round billing due to a crowded depth chart. N.E. runs a 3 man front, and Hill is their 5th best lineman (not necessarily a bad thing). NONE of the lineman in front of him are pushing 30. He was a very good 4-3 run stuffing end at LSU, and will get a chance to do that in his home town of N.O. N.E. is running tight in the cap, and dropping down a few spots and unloading a nice salary for a bench rider AND dumping next year’s 5th wide out is more than reasonable for a 2nd in ’08.

+WR Jabar Gaffney
He fills the need of a young, veteran wide-out with starting experience. He came on strong in the playoffs, but only has one year left on his 2- year deal. B/w Stallworth, Welker, Washington, Jackson, Brown, and Caldwell, Gaffney isn’t the fastest, biggest, cheapest, or the best blocker or has the best hands that = the odd man out. Though, Welker and Jackson are the only WR’s signed through 2008 (if you consider Stallworth and Washington’s deals as basically one year guaranteed). Caldwell had a good season (mid-season pick-up) and a bad post-season, Gaffney had the opposite. But with a lot of draft picks and a deep WR class, you know NE will bring in at least one more kid to develop into 2008’s #3/#4 Wide-out. Plus they’ll be throwing to TE’s, H-backs, and running backs half the time anyway.

-CB Jason Craft-if N.E. can lock-up Samuel, they’ll be set at their 2 corners, with injury prone randall gay, and old chad scott fighting it out for the nickel. Craft is no spring chicken either, but he’s got starting experience and he’s been a healthy, consistent performer as a nickel, and will be a great dime back for N.E.

Trade with Tampa Bay
-DE Charles Grant and #88 (our 3rd rounder), for
+ #35 overall and #98 (Tampa’s 4th).
Ask Joe Horn how willing Payton is to keep around unhappy players. He’ll unload this fat cat, even to a division rival. By the time Tampa becomes a factor again in the NFC South, Grant will be over 30 and well overpaid. We dump a potential locker room cancer and $8.5 mill. Salary cap hit (with no compensation at the end of this season) to pick up a pick at the top of Round 2, and to drop down 10 spots in the middle rounds. Tampa gets a darn good intra-division DE (who doesn’t bring the question marks a rookie does) , which makes their Cap killer Simeon Rice expendable, and get to upgrade a pick to try and catch a faller before the 2nd day.

Trade our 5th round pick in ’08 and RB Aaron Stecker to Indianapolis for #159
-Dungy loves Stecker from their days in Tampa. He’s a great 3rd down back, with starting experience. He’ll be a good compliment to Addai, and will add a veteran to a thin position. He’ll also help improve their special teams. Indy is picking last in the round, so N.O.’s 5th next year, can only be equal or better.

- #122 Our official 4th round pick to Indy.
+ CB Jason David from Indy. He was a low-tendered RFA who was drafted in the 4th. A poison pill contract would take advantage of Indy’s strapped salary cap space and give us a small but very good corner with starting experience in the big dance. Oh yeah, and he’s only 24. In 3 years: 148 tackles, 8 picks, 1 TD, 1 FF, 34 PD.


The Draft:

#24 (From N.E.) From here we can hope RET/WR Ted Ginn, Jr., or one of the top 4 corners falls into our laps, at worst we are in better position to move up for a corner P. Willis, or Ginn if it looks like one will slide to around 20 but be plucked right after. (and received decent fill-in players from N.E.).

#35 (From Tampa)
CB/S Eric Weddle Utah =
At best you’re getting the (2003 Freshman All-American) shutdown corner who locked-up on Calvin Johnson in the 2005 Emerald Bowl (Defensive MVP), and held him to 2 catches for 19 yrds. O Td’s. At worst you’re getting the 2x Mountain West Defensive POY who moved to safety, b/c teams completely avoided his side of the field at corner. He also saw time at quarterback, running back, linebacker, punt returner, punter, and held on field goals for Utah. He had a strong combine, running 4.45/4.48 -40’s, a 4.12-20 yd shuttle, and a 6.78-3 cone. A pure playmaker with ~18 career picks. Also a huge community service guy who majored in special education. Mocks have him going after this pick in the 2nd, and rankings have him maybe lasting all the way to the mid-3rd. At #35 we’re not taking a huge risk on missing him, and if we do, a DE like Tim Crowder very likely available.

#58 DE Dan Bauzin Central Michigan=
A Full-Size pass rusher at 6’3” 270 lbs. Bazuin had 6 sacks, 14 TFL, and 70 tackles as a Redshirt freshman. The next year he blocked 4 kicks. His Junior year he led the nation with 26.5 TFL, and was second with 16.5 sacks. Racked up 11 sacks and 4FF through constant double-teams his senior year. At a bigger school he’d be a late first round lock. Carried a 3.39 GPA.

#98 (From Tampa)TE Kevin Boss Western Oregon=
6-6 5/8”, 253 lbs. Sub 4.7 Forty, great hands, great career, 35 ½ inch vertical. Climbing fast after recovering from shoulder surgery. Also a basketball star at WOU. After ’07 Mark Cambell is the only TE we have on contract. It’s a perfect time to develop a speedy, small school rookie…or two…

#119 TE Michael Allan Whitworth=
At 6’7 255 lbs. and running in the 4.6’s, you don’t have to wonder why he’s the small school poster boy. His stats are misleading because he was just a huge mismatch in DIII football. His team ran mostly 4 and 5 wide sets, and Allan was out wide, a testament to his athleticism, but does lead to questions about his blocking abilities. Senior year caught 53 balls for 1100 yds. and 9TDs. Previous years he caught 65 for 1102 yards with 20 TDs in 25 games. You can’t pass on a guy just because he wasn’t a high school stud…. With a pretty deep TE class, I don’t see anyone using a first day pick on Allen, but he won’t last long on day two. TE Dallas Clark lining up in the slot (and Utecht at TE) sure helped the Colts get over the loss of Brandon Stokley last year. Allen lined up at receiver a lot in college, he and Eric Johnson (Boss in the future) doing that Indy maneuver would make us miss Horn a lot less. He’s handled more balls than a homo juggler.

#121 DT Keith Jackson Arkansas=
Recently ran a 4.85 forty at 6’3” 305 lbs. Had solid soph/junior campaigns but only played in 6 games as a senior due to injury. Has the bloodlines as his dad was a multiple Pro-Bowl TE.

#153 RB Germaine Race Pittsburgh State 5’10” 220 lbs.=
Think the production of Garret Wolfe, with the body of SD’s Michael Turner. A Division II phenom racked up over 100 career TDs. Runs a 4.6 forty, but needs to get a little more explosive, and work on ball-handling. With Reggie and Deuce locked-up through 2012, and Jamaal Branch showing he can play, Race won’t need to step in immediately. However if he’s a quick learner, he and Deuce could loosen up a defense like no other….if Payton would call that many run plays…but some time shining on ST’s, an offseason with Tom Shaw, and a year in NFLE, and he is my pick to be a gem.

#159 (From Indy)
WR Jordan Kent Oregon=
Amazing 3-sport Athlete, 6’5” 215 lbs. An All-American track star, and All-Pac 10 basketball and football stand-out, he’s only played football for 2 years of his life. Nothing but pure upside, but hasn’t run this spring due to a believed ‘Turf toe’. If he gets a good run in before the draft, he’ll likely go higher.

#184 LB Chad Nkang Elon==
A perfect candidate for Weakside linebacker, and special teams. Had 127 tackles last year playing as a 215 lbs SLB. He got up to 225lbs. for the combine and still ran a 4.51 forty…believed to be switched to NFL safety, so he dropped back down to 215 and ran a fast track 4.41 at his pro day! I say keep him as a Will and see what he can do.

#201 C Lyle Sendlein Texas=
We need some depth in the middle in case C Jeff Faine reverts back to his injury riddled days like he had in Cleveland. Sendlein’s a decent center, but this draft has some great ones, so he’ll be left available late on day 2.

I’m not going to try and guess where we’ll get compensatory picks, but we for sure will get at least a 7th, so here’s my pick:

7th Round Compensatory
QB Justin Zwick Ohio State=
There’s little doubt that Troy Smith was the better College QB, but Zwick might end up the better pro. He never really did anything wrong in college, he had one injury early on that let Smith step in. He did well when called upon, and is a very solid, although inexperienced drop-back passer. Recently showed the athleticism that made him such a big-time high school recruit, at OSU’s pro day: 6’3 230 lbs. 4.77 40yd dash. 32 inch. Vertical. 4.18 short shuttle.
_______________________
Possible UFAs:
WR Roy Hall OSU…He wasn’t just behind Gonzo and Ginn, but literally buried on the depth chart. Still, he threw up amazing numbers at his pro day. It may have been enough to get him drafted, but if it wasn’t…

CB Daniel Francis LSU: Ran a 4.41 forty with a 36” vertical at LSU’s pro day. He was a nickel back behind some solid SEC corners, and made his mark on special teams.

C Donald Usry Southeastern Louisiana University. 6-2 1/8, 304lbs. Runs 40s in 5.00,, the short shuttle in 5.01 and the three-cone drill in 8.09. Has a 25½-inch vertical jump, and the lifted 225, 27 times. Not bad for a DIAA stand-out.

OT David Shemaria 6-5 5/8, 302 lbs. Runs the 40-yard dash in 5.28. Boasts a 24-inch vertical jump and 4.78 long jump. Did 28 unofficial reps at his pro day. Former teammate of Jahri Evans, might be worth a look on the inside.


’08 Outlook:
1st round Go after a LB like Laurenitis, Henderson, Connor.
2nd Traded in ‘07
3rd round Look for a big DT to step into Hollis Thomas’s role.
4th I might put this pick up in the supplemental draft if the OT ,Garner I believe, from Arkansas has good work-outs.
5th Traded in ‘07
6th Available (kicker?)
7th Available


Depth Chart 2008
Depth Chart

Offense
QB
Drew Brees
Jamie Martin
Justin Zwick
WR1
Marques Colston
Terrance Copper
Ted Ginn, Jr.
WR2
Devery Henderson
Jabar Gaffney
Jamal Jones/Jordan Kent

RB
Deuce McAllister
Reggie Bush
Jamaal Branch/Germaine Race
FB
Mike Karney
Dudley, Kevin

TE
Eric Johnson
Mark Campbell/Billy Miller
Kevin Boss/Michael Allan

LT
Jammal Brown
Zach Strief

LG
Jamar Nesbit
Jonathan Goodwin

C
Jeff Faine
Lyle Sendlein
Jonathan Goodwin

RG
Jahri Evans
Zach Strief
David Shemaria

RT
Jon Stinchcomb
Rob Petitti
Archibald, Ben

Defense
DLE
Marquise Hill
Dan Bauzin
Willie Whitehead

DRE
Will Smith
Rob Ninkovich

LCB
Mike McKenzie
Eric Weddle
DeJuan Groce

RCB
Jason David
Fred Thomas
Phillips, Anwar

SS
Roman Harper
Kaesviharn, Kevin
Steve Gleason

FS
Josh Bullocks
Kaesviharn, Kevin
Eric Weddle

DLT
Brian Young
Antwan Lake
Keith Jackson

DRT
Hollis Thomas
Rodney Leisle
Willie Whitehead

SLB
Scott Fujita
Alfred Fincher
Wortham,Cornelius/Kuale, EJ

MLB
Brian Simmons
Mark Simoneau

WLB
Scott Shanle
Mark Simoneau
Chad Nkang

Specialists
K
John Carney
Kurt Smith (KOS)
P
Steve Weatherford
Berger, Mitch

KR
Ted Ginn, Jr. Terrance Copper/Eric Weddle
PR
Ted Ginn, Jr. Reggie Bush

LS
Kevin Houser


Last edited by draftspot on Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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LSUSAINT


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Joined: 16 Nov 2004
Posts: 10318
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 5:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't like this at all. First of all, the first trade with the Patriots sucks. Marquise Hill doesn't fit in a 4-3. Jabar Gaffney is just plain terrible. Awful trade.

The Charles Grant trade is bogus. Grant for #35 would be a good trade but that isn't a good trade for us.

I'd rather keep Stecker then trade him to the Colts for that value. It just isn't worth it.

Jason David would be a good pick up.

I'm split on Ginn. I think he's going to be a huge bust but he could work in our offense.

Don't like the Weddle pick. He'll play FS in the pros and we already have Kaesviharn and Bullocks. No need for Weddle even though I like him alot.

Bazuin is a good pick just not at #58. He's a third rounder.

Boss is a second day pick and a project.

Allan is another project and I don't see Payton and Co. taking any projects much less two.

Race is an OK pick since you have Stecker being traded but I'd rather have Stecker.

Kent and Nkang are average picks. Both are underachievers and I don't see Payton taking them.

Sendlein is a great pick.

Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton have showed they draft smart, overachieving players with high character. You went in the opposite direction with this. I'd give it a C+ because of effort.
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jonboynola


Joined: 24 Aug 2006
Posts: 104
Location: New Orleans
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Montrae Holland was signed by the Denver Broncos.
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draftspot


Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 26
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LSUSAINT wrote:
I don't like this at all. First of all, the first trade with the Patriots sucks. Marquise Hill doesn't fit in a 4-3. Jabar Gaffney is just plain terrible. Awful trade.

The Charles Grant trade is bogus. Grant for #35 would be a good trade but that isn't a good trade for us.

I'd rather keep Stecker then trade him to the Colts for that value. It just isn't worth it.

Jason David would be a good pick up.

I'm split on Ginn. I think he's going to be a huge bust but he could work in our offense.

Don't like the Weddle pick. He'll play FS in the pros and we already have Kaesviharn and Bullocks. No need for Weddle even though I like him alot.

Bazuin is a good pick just not at #58. He's a third rounder.

Boss is a second day pick and a project.

Allan is another project and I don't see Payton and Co. taking any projects much less two.

Race is an OK pick since you have Stecker being traded but I'd rather have Stecker.

Kent and Nkang are average picks. Both are underachievers and I don't see Payton taking them.

Sendlein is a great pick.

Mickey Loomis and Sean Payton have showed they draft smart, overachieving players with high character. You went in the opposite direction with this. I'd give it a C+ because of effort.


LSUSAINT, I know we’re not gonna see everything the same, but you made some pretty crappy “observations” with nothing to back them up.

Please tell me how Jabar Gaffney sucks. He averaged 502 yards and 2 Td’s a year for a weak Houston offense. He has decent size, is a former #33 overall pick, and in New England’s post season run (after being a mid-season pick-up) last year, he had 245 yards and 2 Td’s in 3 post season games. Imagine him in a consistent, explosive offense like ours for a full off season.

I think you’d have to see Hill in a 4-3 before you say he doesn’t fit. He did very well there in college. Coming out of LSU, Hill ran a 5.0 forty, had 23 strength reps, and a 30”+ vertical. That’s not bad for a 2-down run stuffing DE, the role we’d need him to play.

So Bauzin is an early-to-mid 3rd rounder, but he’s not worth a late 2nd rounder! That’s absolutely retarded!

I agree, Boss is a second day pick, that’s why I have him going to us in the 4th at #98 overall!! Boss is a fast mover on draft boards, and isn’t that big of a project. Allan is, but I don’t see any reason why you would think Payton doesn’t like projects. Look at last years draft for crying out loud...And after ’07 we only have Campbell at TE! Grabbing two speedy “project” TE’s to learn for a year before they are needed to step in doesn’t look like a huge risk for 4th round picks to me.

Stecker dropped quite a few passes last year. And if that’s basically the only role he’ll be asked to play again, then why have him around. His contract is up after next year, and he’s slated to make a base of $1.25 mill. Branch showed he can handle the run and passing game and will take even more time away from Stecker if he’s still around.

Please explain to me how Nkang, a Sam linebacker at 215 lbs. who recorded 125 tackles last year is an underachiever ?!?!
And while you’re doing that, let me know how the track All-American WR Jordan Kent, a 3 sport stand-out, who has only played football for 2 years, is underachieving ?!?!

Ginn is obviously a brilliant returner and has the ability to contribute as a 4th or 5th WR or DB, but he’s a game changer on ST’s, a guy you design plays for in space, and a decoy to draw safety help b/c of his speed.

Oh and you called the group as a whole underachieving low character guys?
-Weddle is a huge community service guy and a do-it-all for his team.
-Bauzin has always faced 2nd teams and thrown up huge numbers. And carried a very good GPA.
-Nkang and Kent were already discussed. Also, Kent did not go back to the Oregon basketball team (who are in the NCAA tourney) b/c he didn’t want to throw off the team chemistry.
-Allen made himself known as a legitimate prospect from DIII football !!
-Boss did the same from DII, and fought through a shoulder injury to work-out in the post-season.
-Race has dominated DII, and re-wrote numerous records.

You pretty much just made yourself look uninformed calling this group underachieving, and you have provided no evidence to suggest any low character.
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SaintFanWalking


Joined: 10 Mar 2007
Posts: 47
Location: Big Easy
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 10:03 pm    Post subject: Saints ? Reply with quote

Lots of interesting info! Would have no problem with your trades or picks. Would like to see Craig Davis LSU WR 2nd round.
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