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[Zephiel]

That PFF quote made me feel nice.

There's also this, which goes against the common perception that he "only ran a few routes"

[vike daddy]

Patterson: “I’m going to be a top-5 playmaker. I’m a playmaker, I like to make plays. Like I tell them, just get the ball in my hands I feel like I’m special with it. I just like to do special things with the ball.”

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/07/08/cordarrelle-patterson-im-going-to-be-a-top-5-playmaker/
_________________


Everson Griffen: “We can be special. But it’s up to us.”

[Frank Costello]

Get your 84 jerseys out...
_________________
2017 - In Zimmer We Trust.

[Klomp]

[Krauser]

I've done a film review and some charting of Patterson's rookie season.

I'll put together an analysis in several sections, roll out one every day or two.

The main focus will be on his work as a receiver.

Questions to answer:

How often did he get on the field?
Where did he line up?
What routes did he run?
What coverage did he face?
Did he get open?
How did his QBs do?
How were his hands?
Did he get YAC?
Did he make any obvious mistakes?

Starting off...

[Krauser]

Cordarrelle Patterson: Rookie Year in Review



1. Usage as a Receiver:

Patterson started the year as a bit player, behind Jerome Simpson on the depth chart at split end. He played far less than half of the snaps on offense until the middle of the year (game #10, at Seattle), the week Simpson ran into legal trouble and lost his starting job and Greg Jennings was out with an injury. His role expanded after that, but he still rarely saw the field on more than 60% of snaps.

Patterson's snaps as a percentage of total offensive plays:
Games 1-2: 9%
Games 3-4: 25%
Games 5-7: 30-32%
Games 8-9: 37-40%
Game 10 (@Seattle): 59%
Games 11-12: 53-56%
Game 13 (@Baltimore): 76%
Game 14 & 16: 57%
Game 15 (@Cincinatti): 65%

Note that he played the most snaps in the following situations:
1. on the road in Baltimore (9th best pass defense by DVOA) in a snowstorm
2. on the road in Cincinnati (4th)
3. on the road in Seattle (1st)

I've charted 83 pass plays where Patterson was the primary target (including DPIs, throwaways and batted passes). Those 3 games account for 24 of his targets. Another 10 came on the road at Lambeau. Another 7 came during the Josh Freeman debacle in NY on MNF. Those 5 games account for roughly half of Patterson's targets.

...

Patterson played 446 snaps last year. On 292 of them, he ran a pass route.

Greg Jennings led the team with 497 pass routes run in 15 games, 39 WRs across the league ran 500 or more.

88 WRs ran more routes than Patterson last year.

Compare Patterson's opportunities as a receiver with the other rookie WRs in 2013:

Deandre Hopkins 629 offensive snaps on which he ran a pass route
Keenan Allen 510
Kenny Stills 496
Terrance Williams 490
Robert Woods 484
Ace Sanders 435
Kenbrell Thompkins 355
Aaron Dobson 315
Tavon Austin 305
Cordarrelle Patterson 292
Justin Hunter 212
DaRick Rogers 131
Stedman Bailey 116
Markus Wheaton 106

Most of the rookies on the bottom half of that list missed multiple games, including Austin and Dobson. Justin Hunter's usage was most similar to Patterson's, in that he played in almost every game but only exceeded 60% of snaps in 3 games (Patterson did it twice).

[Krauser]

2. Alignment and Routes

PFF charted Patterson as running 292 pass routes, on which he was targeted 72 times. That number doesn't include penalties (including DPI), throwaways and batted passes. It also excludes decoy routes on running plays.

I went through the Vikings season on GamePass and found 83 pass plays where Patterson was the target, including the plays that PFF excludes. There'll be a few minor discrepancies between my charting and PFF, which I'm not bothering to reconcile.

...

I'll present my notes as a series of questions and answers.

Where did Patterson line up in formation? Was he used more as an outside WR or a slot receiver?

On 60 of the 83 plays (72%) where he was targeted, Patterson lined up outside. That includes plays where he was a step off the LOS and where he was the outside man in a 3-WR bunch. He was in the slot for 22 of his targets, plus 1 where he lined up in the backfield and ran a screen into the flat.

PFF says Patterson ran 51 routes from the slot of the 292 in total (17.5%), meaning he ran 241 as an outside WR. They charted him as having 21 targets from the slot (~40%) of his total 72 targets. That means the other ~50 targets came on ~240 routes from outside (~20%). So while he lined up outside on 80% of plays, the 17% where he was in the slot accounted for 40% of his targets (and nearly half of his receiving yards).

Did he get to play in all game situations?

Patterson was hardly ever targeted on 3rd down or in the red zone for the first half of the year. His first 3rd down target came in the MNF game in NY. His first target in the end zone was vs Washington (the TD). That play, in the 9th game of the year, was only the 2nd time all season he'd been targeted in the red zone.

For the second half of the year, Patterson played in all game situations and field positions, including 3rd down and red zone.

What kind of routes did he run?

This analysis is limited by looking at his targets, not just any route he ran where he wasn't thrown to.

Most of his targets at the beginning of the year were on screens and go routes. Of the first 15 passes thrown to Patterson, 8 were screens and 3 were go (deep) routes.

Later in the year, he was running a full route tree. Someone has apparently charted 8 of his games, mostly at the end of the season, and put together this graph:



Was he getting open?

Hard to say for sure without watching every single snap he played on coaches film.

It seems Patterson wasn't getting open very often, especially at the beginning of the year. Over half of his first 15 targets were screen passes. Most of his downfield targets were contested.

I did watch enough coaches film to believe that he was getting open more often by the end of the year. Even then, the coaches film shows Patterson to be the worst of the WRs in terms of getting upfield quickly and making quick cuts -- Simpson, Wright and especially Jennings are open way more often than he is.

One of the main changes toward the end of the year is the increasing number of balls thrown Patterson's way even when he's covered, especially on back shoulder throws.

How can you be sure his situational usage, route tree and success vs coverage improved during the year?

Not totally sure, but it seems likely based on the targets alone. I did review two games in detail, one early in the season and one late, to contrast and compare, and found some supporting evidence.

I went through all of Patterson's snaps on the coaches' film of the Browns game and the 2nd Lions game. Decided to compare those two because they were home games vs decent defenses (but not the Seahawks or Bengals), with the score fairly close throughout, where Patterson played enough to be worth charting (i.e., not the first two games). Results:

vs Browns (game 3):
-- played 20/80 offensive snaps, by PFF. I charted 19 plays.
-- 3/19 were in the red zone, 0 targets.
-- 3/19 were on 3rd down, 0 targets.
-- 8/19 were run plays -- 1 end around by Patterson, otherwise blocking or running decoys
-- 11/19 were called passes, including one scramble. 10 throws, 10 routes charted.
-- 10 routes: go / fade 2 (both targeted), slant 4, post 1, corner 2, screen (decoy) 1
-- 10 routes: vs man 6, off man 1, zone 3
-- 7 routes vs man coverage: 6 covered, 1 open

vs Lions (game 16):
-- played 35/61 offensive snaps, by PFF. I charted 32 plays (I think they mistook Joe Webb for Patterson).
-- 3/35 were in the red zone (they didn't get to the red zone often), of which 2 were Patterson targets.
-- 7/35 were on 3rd down, of which 1 was a Patterson target
-- 8/35 were run plays -- including 2 runs by Patterson
-- 27/35 were called pass plays, including 2 sacks and a scramble. 24 throws, 23 routes charted. On one play, Patterson lines up at tailback, play action fake, throw to Ford.
-- 23 routes: go / fade 7, slant 2, post 3, dig 3, out 1, comeback 2, flat 2, curl 1, screen 1
-- 23 routes: vs man 9, off man 4, zone 10
-- 13 routes vs man coverage: covered 6, open 4, back shoulder 3

...

next up: production, success and failures

[Krauser]

3a. Production: Yards, YAC

This is again based on Patterson as a receiver only.

I reviewed 83 pass plays on which Patterson was the primary target. This included DPIs (4) and batted passes (4). There were also several passes where the QB was intentionally throwing it away in Patterson's direction (over his head out of bounds, for instance). PFF labeled 3 passes as throwaways, there were a couple of others that I thought were arguable.

Excluding the DPIs, batted passes and PFF's 3 throwaways (total 11) from 83 passes leaves 72, Patterson's targets. Results:

45 catches on 72 targets (62.5%), 469 yards (10.4 YPC), 6.5 YPA, 4 TDs, 2 INTs

On 292 pass routes, Patterson produced 1.61 yards per pass route run.

Yards per route run is basically the target percentage (on what percentage of routes was the WR targeted?) multiplied by yards per target (YPA). Here's the YPRR for the Vikings main 4 WRs:

[AP_allday2869]

Keep them coming, Krauser. You're putting in some OT making these breakdowns.
_________________

[Krauser]

4. Catches, Drops and Misses

For this section, I've analyzed the video for every pass targeted to Patterson in 2013.

Questions to answer:
-- How many passes were accurate? (not just caught, but actually on target)
-- How many difficult catches did he have to make?
-- How many difficult but catchable balls did he fail to come up with?
-- How many easy catches did he drop?
-- How many plays were broken up by the defense?
-- How was his production affected by the accuracy of the QBs?

I've organized the throws by depth of target. In order, I'll cover:
-- screens (behind LOS)
-- short passes (0-7 yards downfield)
-- intermediate passes (8-20 yards)
-- deep passes (20+ yards)

I'll include a number of images -- screenshots and maybe a few gifs -- so I'll break up the analysis into separate posts.

[Krauser]

4a. Catches, Drops and Misses: Screens

I charted 23 screen passes targeted to Patterson.

2 were batted at the line:

1. Ponder's pass in the Washington game was tipped by Ryan Kerrigan and nearly intercepted


2. Cassel's pass in the Seattle game was tipped by Chris Clemons and intercepted


...

Of the other 21, 14 were accurate throws. Here are examples of throws that landed:

-- right between the numbers


-- at eye level but right at him (not perfect accuracy but very catchable)


-- a little in front of him (actually a very good target, letting him start to run upfield for YAC)


-- very slightly behind him, but still hitting the chest (not the best, because he has to wait for it)


I charted all of these as accurate throws, along with 10 others. All 14 accurate throws on screen passes were caught by Patterson.

...

Of the 7 inaccurate throws on screen passes (not including the 2 batted passes):

1 was uncatchable:

(Cassel's throw here might have been tipped)

1 was charted by PFF as a drop, but I think the pass was inaccurate enough that the incompletion at least as much Freeman's fault:


5 were caught, but required Patterson to jump, spin, reach/lean back, or kneel:






These 5 completions were for a total of 8 yards.

...

How did QB accuracy affect Patterson's production on these screen passes?

On 7 inaccurate passes:
5/7 for 8 yards, 0 first downs (including 9 yards on 3rd and 10 and 4 yards on 3rd and 7), 0 TDs.

Including the 2 batted passes:
5/9 for 8 yards (0.9 YPA), 0 first downs, 0 TDs, 1 INT

On 14 accurate passes:
14/14 for 173 yards (12.4 YPA), 6 first downs, 1 TD

Total:
14/23 for 181 yards (7.9 YPA), 6 first downs, 1 TD, 1 INT

Patterson's contribution:
-- 1 possible drop on an inaccurate pass
-- 5 fairly difficult catches
-- no easy drops
-- all yards were YAC

[Krauser]

4b. Catches, Drops and Misses: Short Passes

I defined "short" here as less than 10 yards beyond the LOS.

I charted 29 short passes targeted to Patterson.

...

Of those, 1 was batted at the line. Patterson was open running a short curl route vs Detroit, Cassel's pass was batted down.

...

14 of them were accurate throws.

One of the 14 was a pass defensed by Joe Haden on a slant where Patterson was never open against press coverage:


Patterson caught the other 13. Examples:

5 yards on a curl pattern from Ponder:


9 yards on a curl pattern from Cassel:


Those 13 catches went for 87 yards and 2 TDs (back shoulder throws on fade routes, vs the Eagles and Lions), but only included 9 YAC. These were all very quick patterns (curls, comebacks, slants) with defenders right on top of the play.

Some of these catches were fairly difficult despite an accurate throw, because the catch point was contested. Patterson showed good body control and hands there, including on the back shoulder TDs.

...

Patterson made 5 additional catches on passes that were less accurate -- too high, too low, behind him, etc. Here they are:

5 yards on a comeback route against zone coverage from Cassel:


A short TD on a slow-developing shallow crossing route from Ponder:


5 yards failing to convert 3rd down in GB, from Ponder:


9 yards going to his knees to scoop a throw from Cassel, on a curl route vs the Eagles:


11 yards (7 YAC) on 4th and 17 in Cinci, from Cassel:


The last catch there is extremely impressive, he's running from left to right across the photo and has to spin 180 degrees and stab the ball directly behind him. I'll post a gif later, if I can figure out how to make one.

...

9 more short passes went incomplete because the throw was inaccurate. On several of them, Patterson was open. Here they are:

3-4 ft over his head from Freeman (pass may have been tipped):


Ponder rolling out and throwing the ball too far OOB (almost a throwaway):


High and wide from Ponder vs Washington:


Ponder bounces a slant in Seattle:


Ponder misreads zone coverage and throws a pick 6:


Well out of reach on a sideline throw from Cassel:


Cassel's end zone fade route misses everyone:


Cassel bounces a slant behind him vs the Lions:


There was also a clear throwaway from Freeman under pressure in the Giants game.

Patterson was open on most of these missed passes, probably every one except the pick 6 and the back shoulder end zone throw vs the Lions.

...

Summing up:

29 throws:
1 batted down at the line
9 uncatchable throws...
...including 1 INT (Ponder vs Seattle)
...and one throwaway
...Patterson was open on 6 of the other 7 plays

19 catchable throws:
14 placed accurately...
...13 caught
... 1 batted down (Haden)
5 placed too high / behind / low
...all 5 caught

Miscues:
Drops: 0
Passes defensed: 1
QB misses: 8
Batted down: 1
Throwaways: 1

On accurate throws:
13/14 for 87 yards, 2 TDs

On catchable throws:
18/19 for 129 yards, 3 TDs

Including uncatchable throws:
18/29 for 129 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

It's fair to think that inaccurate short passes cost Patterson 5 or more additional catches.

[Krauser]

4c. Catches, Drops and Misses: Intermediate Passes

I defined "intermediate" here as 10-20 yards beyond the LOS.

I charted 12 intermediate passes targeted to Patterson.

...

Of those 12, 1 was batted at the line. Patterson was open running a short curl route vs Chicago, Cassel's pass was batted down.

3 of Cassel's 33 passes to Patterson were definitely tipped or batted down at the line, a 4th (the uncatchably high screen pass against the Bengals) may have been tipped.

...

Of the 11 that made it past the line, 1 was definitely a throwaway. Ponder rolling right under pressure in Seattle, threw it well OOB with Patterson nearby running an out (he was covered).

...

Of the remaining 10, only 3 were accurate throws. "Accurate" again means hitting the WR in the chest or at eye level.

Patterson caught 2 of them:

Open in a hole in zone against Washington, from Ponder, added 4 YAC by breaking a tackle


Open on a curl pattern against Seattle, from Ponder, pushed upfield through a tackle to add 5 YAC


...

And Patterson dropped 1 of them:

Open against zone coverage vs the Bears, from Cassel, uncontested drop:

Looks like good technique, using his hands. This is likely a "concentration drop".

...

7 of the throws were inaccurate.

4 of them were catchable.

Patterson caught 2 of them:

Down on one knee to scoop Freeman's throw, open on a 15 yard dig route against zone coverage:


Leaping and extending to haul in Ponder's throw, running a wheel route vs GB:


...

One was charted as a drop by PFF, but I think this is a pass defensed. Patterson runs open on a post pattern against zone coverage in the Eagles game. Cassel's pass forces him to jump and reach. He gets both hands on the ball but the CB disrupts the catch as he pulls his arms down, incomplete:


You can fault Patterson for not securing the catch, but the high pass (ball was also delivered a bit late in the route) gave the CB a chance to make a play, and he did. If Cassel puts the ball on his chest, that's probably a TD.

...

One was an "inaccurate" pass that was placed perfectly given the coverage, and dropped by Patterson. This was the 4th down play in Cincinnati. Patterson wasn't really open, Cassel put the ball a little high and outside but gave the WR a chance. In real time, it looks like a pass defensed, but on replay, Patterson clearly has the ball slip out of his hands before the DB gets there.



Ball is coming out in that last image. I'd call that a drop.

...

3 of the throws were uncatchable.

Patterson is open on an out route vs GB. Ponder climbs the pocket but delivers late and high, OOB. Cris Collingsworth singles out the replay as an example of Ponder not taking advantage of opportunities:


Patterson gets open in the end zone against zone coverage vs the Seahawks. Cassel steps up in the pocket, and throws several feet high:

Delivered accurately, that's likely a TD.

Patterson gets wide open on an intermediate crossing route against zone coverage @GB. Ponder's throws misses him by a mile.



Given the space in front of him, that would've been a big play, maybe a TD, with an accurate pass.

...

Summing up:

12 throws:
1 batted down at the line
1 deliberate throwaway
3 uncatchable throws

7 catchable throws:
3 placed accurately...
...2 caught
...1 dropped (vs Bears)
4 placed too high/low/etc...
...2 caught
...1 pass defensed (vs Eagles)
...1 dropped (@Cincinnati)

Miscues:
Drops: 2
Passes defensed: 1
QB misses: 3
Batted down: 1
Throwaways: 1

On accurate throws:
2/3 for 35 yards, 1 drop

On catchable throws:
4/7 for 67 yards, 2 drops, 1 pass defensed

Including uncatchable throws:
4/12 for 67 yards

Inaccurate intermediate throws probably cost Patterson some or all of these plays:
-- a TD (from Cassel vs Seattle)
-- a huge gain and maybe TD (from Ponder @ Lambeau)
-- another TD (from Cassel vs Eagles -- if the pass was on target, the CB couldn't have broken it up)

[Krauser]

4d. Catches, Drops and Misses: Deep Passes

I defined "deep" here as 20+ yards beyond the LOS.

I charted 17 deep passes targeted to Patterson.

...

4 of them resulted in penalties for defensive pass interference, for a total of 119 yards.

One of them was questionable, an overthrown sideline pass in NY that was probably uncatchable.

The other 3 were obvious penalties:
-- Patterson beat Tramon Williams deep on a double move on a seam route in the home game vs GB, Williams mugged him
-- Patterson had a step on Jeremy Lane on a go route @Seattle, Lane played the man instead of the ball
-- Patterson beat Bradley Fletcher on a go route in the Eagles game, Cassel under threw the pass, Fletcher blocked Patterson from coming back to the ball

...

Of the other 13, 4 of the passes were uncatchable.

This included 2 throws that landed way beyond Patterson, who wasn't open. These are effectively deep throwaways:



Patterson had inside position, but wasn't really open in the London game. Cassel overthrew him...


...right to Ike Taylor, who made the easy catch for an INT...



...or would have, except that Patterson had the presence of mind to reach around him and smack the ball out of his hands.

There was also a pass from Cassel late in the Seahawks game that Patterson caught, but well out of bounds.

...

Of the other 9 deep passes, Patterson caught 4.

All were at least moderately difficult catches on throws that were not accurate (either hitting him in the chest, or landing over the shoulder).

37 yards caught between his knees falling backward on an underthrown pass from Ponder vs the Browns:


24 yards reaching around the CB in the Ravens game


20 yards jumping, off balance, wide open in the Ravens game:

No YAC there as he fell landing after the catch

23 yards reaching up behind the CB on a back shoulder throw from Cassel in the Lions game:


...

2 were drops.

1 was definitely a drop, on a perfectly accurate pass.

Patterson got open on a sideline go route, Ponder placed an over-the-shoulder throw in stride.

Instead of letting the ball come down and making a basket catch, Patterson leaned back and reached up -- poor technique. Would've been a gain of 35 yards into scoring range late in the 4Q, probably would have secured a win.

1 could be considered a drop, but it would have been a very difficult catch.

Early in the Ravens game, with the snowstorm still full blown, Patterson tried to come down with this deep back shoulder throw from Cassel:


...but it went through his hands. PFF doesn't chart this as a drop, but it really is, even if the weather was a major factor and the catch point was very difficult.

...

3 were passes defensed.

1 was an underthrown deep route from Cassel in the Ravens game. Patterson came over the top of the CB to prevent the INT:


1 was a sideline pattern in the Bengals game, where Patterson had a step on Pacman Jones, but Cassel's throw was low and inside. Jones almost made a diving INT:



1 was a great play by the DB. Patterson got open at the back of the end zone in the Lambeau game, Ponder delivered an accurate pass, but Davon House undercut the route and got a fingertip on the ball.


You can see the change in trajectory given how Patterson has to change the level of his hands at the last minute.

Patterson was able to adjust to the deflection and make and acrobatic catch from this position:

But landed OOB, incomplete.

...

Summing up:

17 deep passes:
...4 DPI, for 119 yards
...4 uncatchable, all incomplete (including the INT in the Steelers game that Patterson defensed)
...9 catchable

Of 9 catchable deep passes:
...4 caught, for 104 yards.
...2 dropped
...3 defensed

Miscues:
Drops: 2 -- one easy and one difficult
Passes defensed: 3
Interceptions defensed by Patterson: 2
QB misses: 6 (including uncatchable and 2 of the 3 passes defensed)

For catchable throws:
4/9 for 104 yards

Including uncatchable throws:
4/13 for 104 yards, plus 4 DPIs for 119 yards
total 8 successful plays of 17, for 223 yards.

[Krauser]