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SoS's Pressing Questions

 
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SoS


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 3759
Location: Sleepless in Seattle
PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:23 pm    Post subject: SoS's Pressing Questions Reply with quote

How's it going fellas. This will be the next installment of my "32 Team Pressing Fantasy Questions" thread, which will be found in the Fantasy Football forum once I've compiled a sufficient amount of responses. I will be linking each team from that central thread so posters can click on the link and be directed to this thread (or whichever team they click on) to directly see the comments you guys have left.


With that said, I would GREATLY appreciate as much participation/responses/opinions as possible. I know it's somewhat of a dead period here on Football's Future but it would be great if you guys could just take a few seconds to voice what you believe to be the answer to these pressing questions. Since it is for fantasy purposes, there likely will not be any defensive questions. Each team will have 3 questions and they will generally encompass the QBs, RBs, and WRs.


Thanks in advance!



1. The 49ers are absolutely loaded with depth, which makes them one of the most difficult teams to project production for their fantasy players. Michael Crabtree is likely going to get his, but what type of numbers are you guys expecting from Boldin, Stevie, and Vernon? Might Patton or Ellington have an impact this season? Which guys have the most value beyond 2014?


2. Another big talking point with the Niners is how this running game is going to shake out after the team drafted Carlos Hyde. Frank Gore's touches are expected to take a hit, but how many do you guys think he ends up with? Will Lattimore ever have an impact for this team? Is Kendall Hunter a guy people are sleeping on for 2014?


3. Harbaugh has had a lot to say about the progression of Colin Kaepernick. Are you guys really expecting him to take that next step and, if so, is there a chance he can finish the year as a top 7 fantasy QB? Why or why not?

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J-ALL-DAY


Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 28839
PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So tough to predict with this team, but I will give it a shot.

1. Since I'm predicting Kaepernick to increase his pass attempts to around 460-465 this year, I will go with:

-Michael Crabtree 86 catches 1105 yards 9 TDs
-Anquan Boldin 71 catches 950 yards 5 TDs
-Vernon Davis 50 catches 750 yards 8 TDs
-Stevie Johnson 42 catches 450 yards 2 TDs

I don't see Patton/Ellington having much of an impact this upcoming season. But 2014 and beyond? Both should have a role on this team, and Ellington has the chance to be our #2 WR as soon as 2015.

2. I expect Gore to have about 215-225 carries. That puts him in about 13-15 carries a game. Lattimore may have a role, but hard to see him getting many carries unless he outplays Hyde/Hunter in training camp/preseason. Hunter should be the favorite to back up Gore, but don't be surprised if we trade one of our backs before the season stats. 2015 and beyond? Hyde/Lattimore should be a potent duo for the next five or so years.

3. Harbaugh and the crew have mentioned on numerous occasions they plan on implementing more three WR sets. I have to believe we will throw it more than we did in 2013, but the question is how much more? I'd say about three more attempts a game, but nothing out of the ordinary. This will still be a run heavy team and that's what makes this so tough to predict. I think Kaepernick will end up with 3600-3800 yards as we will be in more close games, but not sure he will be a top 7 fantasy QB. Like what you guys do with Wilson, once we get out to a big lead, Harbaugh completely shuts Kaepernick down. He doesn't get to pad his stats like other QBs, and he saves his running for the playoffs. Still, should have over 4,000 total yards and 28-32 TDs (Including rushing). So you tell me, does that equate to top 7? Laughing

Take all this with a grain of salt though. There is a lot of guessing going on and I may be a bit too optimistic in some of the predictions.
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Ataal


Joined: 17 Oct 2011
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Location: Avondale, Arizona
PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. If you take last year as any indication of what will happen this year, take a look at our top four receivers.

Anquan Boldin(WR): 1,179 yards 7 touchdowns.
Vernon Davis(TE): 850 yards 13 touchdowns.
Michael Crabtree(WR): 284 yards 1 touchdown.
Bruce Miller(FB): 243 yards 0 touchdowns

Quite the drop off from the top two. Now, let's take a look at context. Crabtree was out for the majority of the season. Patton was injured, too. So, Boldin and Davis were really our only receivers for the majority of the year. Pretty easy to defend against. I mean, when your fullback is your fourth best option as a receiver.....

Now, we have three 1,000 yard capable wide receivers and a top 3 tight end. But, do you pick any of these guys up in fantasy? I guess it depends on how much the ball is spread around. Crabtree and Davis should be our top 2 guys, but if the ball is spread around fairly evenly, I doubt we have any receivers over 1,000 yards this year. Some guys will have big individual games, though.

2. I expect this to go just like it did when we had Gore, Hunter, James, and Dixon in 2012. Everyone's going to get a shot to play. But, the majority of workload is going to fall on Gore. Hunter is the only other proven commodity amongst our stable. So, you're taking a risk picking up anyone else. It could be a high reward risk, though, too.

3. Kaepernick's woes were hard to pinpoint a cause for last year because of his weapons being injured. What's he supposed to do when Boldin is your only target and he's blanketed? Oh, and you're told not to run for the majority of the year? People talk about how good our O-line is, but the truth is, it's a good rush blocking line, but a pretty poor pass blocking line(bottom 10 for years). Boldin isn't open, O-line is letting people through, and you can't run. Not much to do there in that situation. Granted, there were moments, especially in a nationally televised game(more scrutiny than normal), where he had more options and didn't get the passes off.

So, he has areas for improvement. No one will deny that. But, if we're comparing last year to this year, I'd be shocked if he didn't make huge strides. In fact, this is the year for most people to cement their opinion on Kaepernick. No excuses. More weapons. Get it done. As for top 7? There will be games where he'll be a top 3-5 guy. But, the way this offense is, we simply don't air it out when we're in the lead like Brees, Manning, Brady, Rodgers does. So, unless our defense takes a huge hit, I don't see the offensive numbers going up by much. It will be noticeable, but not top 7. Honestly, I don't have as much faith in Roman as some people do to coordinate a passing offense. But, I'd love to be proven wrong.
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J-ALL-DAY


Joined: 17 Oct 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ataal, I DO think we will have at least one 1,000 yard WR. Of course, I'm also assuming we air it out for a couple of reasons. One, we should be in more competitive games, and two the weapons are better compared to last year.
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John Clayton said word in SF's camp is that they want Gore to have about 50 less carries this year. That would put him at around 225 which is fine with me. Heck, even 60 or so less carries would be good. We have a lot of depth and the key is to keep him fresh for the postseason. Not having a first round by hurt Gore more than anyone on the team last year.
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Ataal


Joined: 17 Oct 2011
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Location: Avondale, Arizona
PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-ALL-DAY wrote:
Ataal, I DO think we will have at least one 1,000 yard WR. Of course, I'm also assuming we air it out for a couple of reasons. One, we should be in more competitive games, and two the weapons are better compared to last year.


I had a qualifier there about spreading the ball around evenly. This is kind of new territory for us. We have a top 5(according to many lists online, not just goldfishwar's) receiver corp for the first time in......I honestly have no idea. Roman has a lot to prove in the passing game. Kaepernick still has some things to prove himself.

The talent is there, but I have no idea how this is going to turn out. I remain hopeful, but it's going to be an absolute battle in this division.
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 7:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We definitely have more weapons, but Kaepernick will still favor one WR over the others. And I believe that will be a healthy Crabtree.
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Forge


Joined: 19 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:53 pm    Post subject: Re: SoS's Pressing Questions Reply with quote

SoS wrote:

1. The 49ers are absolutely loaded with depth, which makes them one of the most difficult teams to project production for their fantasy players. Michael Crabtree is likely going to get his, but what type of numbers are you guys expecting from Boldin, Stevie, and Vernon? Might Patton or Ellington have an impact this season? Which guys have the most value beyond 2014?


Personally, I don't think Boldin and Stevie will really be consequential in fantasy without injury. Boldin is a wr4 I think and nothing more than bye week filler, and I don't think that Stevie is draftable. There seems to be the appearance that we are going to open the offense up, but I will believe that when I see it. I'd rather take a shot on a high upside big bust guy to be honest. Give me a guy like Justin Hunter or someone of that ilk as a late round flyer guy; especially if they are just going to sit the bench for the first few weeks and be a bye week filler. By the time the need to use him comes into play, should have a fairly good idea on whether or not to keep him or drop him for someone else to play. Plus, if he hits big in the first few weeks, you can hopefully sell high.

Vernon will still likely be a top 5 tight end due to his touchdowns, but he's going to be massively inconsistent. I could see him getting the majority of his points in just a handful of games and getting absolutely nothing in the rest. Think Chris Johnson last year; I think in terms of running back points, he was actually like top 12 last year (standard scoring), but at no point last year did he feel like a top 12 running back. I'll skip him and take someone like Dennis Pitta in the last few rounds.


Quote:
2. Another big talking point with the Niners is how this running game is going to shake out after the team drafted Carlos Hyde. Frank Gore's touches are expected to take a hit, but how many do you guys think he ends up with? Will Lattimore ever have an impact for this team? Is Kendall Hunter a guy people are sleeping on for 2014?


Until after TC and we know who the actual back up is, I can't look at any of the backups as being draftable outside of Hyde in a deep dynasty league (yes, I'd take Hyde before Lattimore in a deep dynasty league; he's an all around back; goal line carries, can catch passes, pass block, and doesn't have the injury history. Yes, he could be the next trent richardson while Lattimore is a stud, but meh). I expect Gore's carries to shrink considerably; I'll say he finishes somewhere around 215-225. Hunter should have the first crack at the back up job, and until after TC and preseason, he's the guy I like the most; I've always been a fan of the way he runs and what he brings to the table and I have to imagine he will have the most trust. I don't think people are sleeping on him yet as there isn't enough information to really determine, but I think he's certainly someone to keep an eye on during the season to snatch him up in a hurry.


Quote:
3. Harbaugh has had a lot to say about the progression of Colin Kaepernick. Are you guys really expecting him to take that next step and, if so, is there a chance he can finish the year as a top 7 fantasy QB? Why or why not?


I'm actually buying Kaepernick in fantasy (funny considering how I feel about him as a player), as I think he's going to be tremendous value. I don't know if he's going to take that next step in being a real quarterback; some guys are better fantasy quarterbacks than real life QB's (Stafford), and some guys are better real life quarterbacks than fantasy (Alex Smith). There's a real possibility that Kaepernick is outside of the top 12 quarterbacks drafted and maybe as late as 15, which seems completely ludicrous given his talent and skillset, and the players currently surrounding him. (Think about it, its entirely possible. In no order- 1) Manning, 2) Brees, 3) Newton, 4) Luck, 5) Cutler, 6) Stafford, 7) Romo, Cool Foles, 9) Rodgers, 10) Ryan, 11) Brady, 12) Rivers ...then you still have the likes of Wilson, RG3, Flacco, Big Ben....). So I say buy buy buy on Kaepernick given the upside. You can draft him as your back up and maybe turn him over later.

Overall, there are only really 2 guys I'd be looking at drafting from the 49ers, and maybe really only 1 based on value. Kaepernick could be a huge steal given what he brings to the table; Crabtree could easily get forgotten in the glut of crazy deep wide receivers there are, and he's a legit #2 in fantasy. He could be good value if the board falls right, but those are the only 2 I'd really think will represent good value come draft time.
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dan77733


Joined: 13 Apr 2014
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 1:13 pm    Post subject: Re: SoS's Pressing Questions Reply with quote

SoS wrote:
1. The 49ers are absolutely loaded with depth, which makes them one of the most difficult teams to project production for their fantasy players. Michael Crabtree is likely going to get his, but what type of numbers are you guys expecting from Boldin, Stevie, and Vernon? Might Patton or Ellington have an impact this season? Which guys have the most value beyond 2014?


Crabtree - 70+ rec, 1000+ yds, 8 tds
Johnson - 55+ rec, 800+ yds, 5 tds
Boldin - 40+ rec, 500+ yds, 2 tds
Davis - 40+ rec, 500+ yds, 5 tds

Crabtree will still be Kaepernick's main go to guy. I see Johnson playing very well and making Boldin expendable after 2014. Davis has a down year due to him holding out but comes back with a great contract season in 2015. Patton and Ellington will have minimal impact. Most value beyond 2014 is Crabtree and Johnson. Team must keep Crabtree and Kaepernick together in my opinion.

SoS wrote:
2. Another big talking point with the Niners is how this running game is going to shake out after the team drafted Carlos Hyde. Frank Gore's touches are expected to take a hit, but how many do you guys think he ends up with? Will Lattimore ever have an impact for this team? Is Kendall Hunter a guy people are sleeping on for 2014?


Lattimore was placed on the PUP or NFI list (I forgot which one) and to be perfectly honest, im expecting anything from him this year. Gore will still be the workhorse for the team with around 250 carries, over 1000 yards, 5.0+ average and at least 8 tds. Hunter will remain the backup and change of pace guy with about half the production. Hyde will be the same or less than Hunter. I do think that the team should extend Hunter and keep James as I dont see Gore coming back after 2014 and Lattimore is still an unknown.

SoS wrote:
3. Harbaugh has had a lot to say about the progression of Colin Kaepernick. Are you guys really expecting him to take that next step and, if so, is there a chance he can finish the year as a top 7 fantasy QB? Why or why not?


My hopes are nowhere near what they were a season ago especially after the Packers week one game. I think that until he becomes a better pocket passer, goes through his reads, progressions, etc., he'll stay in that good but not great tier. Top 10, probably...top 7, I would be surprised. Running wise, top 7, most likely.
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Forge


Joined: 19 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it'd be very shocking if gore averaged 5+ yards per carry. He's done that once in his career, come close a couple of other times and he's 31. He averaged 4.7 2 years ago, but in 3 of the other 4 his top was 4.3. And oh yeah, we play in a division with Seattle, St Louis and Arizona, who all have top notch defenses.

Truthfully, I'm not sure gore hits 1000 yards this year. I could see him topping out at 900-950. Especially if we really are opening the offense
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2014 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forge wrote:
I think it'd be very shocking if gore averaged 5+ yards per carry. He's done that once in his career, come close a couple of other times and he's 31. He averaged 4.7 2 years ago, but in 3 of the other 4 his top was 4.3. And oh yeah, we play in a division with Seattle, St Louis and Arizona, who all have top notch defenses.

Truthfully, I'm not sure gore hits 1000 yards this year. I could see him topping out at 900-950. Especially if we really are opening the offense


Oh, I don't think there is any chance he averages 5 YPC this year. Getting less than 1,000 yards is VERY possible, and I predicted him to barely eclipse that mark.
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dan77733


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2014 1:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 5.0 average is probably a stretch but I can easily see Gore going over 1000 yards because there will be a stretch of several games where he has to carry the offense on his back like he did last season. I dont care how many times they say they're going to open up the offense because until Kaepernick becomes a better pocket passer and consistent at that, the offense will go through Gore. Gore is a stud. Lattimore is a huge question mark. James is non-existent. Hunter is going into his contract year and Hyde is a rookie. I wouldnt be surprised to see Gore with more rushing yards than the other four running backs combined by season's end.
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