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Tim Mashtay numbers

 
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AlexGreen#20


Joined: 13 Jun 2012
Posts: 5832
PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:20 am    Post subject: Tim Mashtay numbers Reply with quote

Not my work, thanks to PoppaKoppa on another board. PM me if you need the link because posting links to other forums is against the rules.

First, here is a glossary:
PAvg = Punting Average
TB = Touchbacks
TB% = % of Touchbacks out of total punts
IN20 = Inside the 20
IN20% = % of Inside the 20 punts out of total punts
ATT = return attempts by opponents
YDS = return yards by opponents
RAvg = punt return average by opponents

Tim Masthay's 2013 Punting Numbers:
Punts - 64
Yards - 2854
PAvg - 44.6
TB - 5
TB% - 7.81
IN20 - 22
IN20% - 34.38
ATT - 20
YDS - 261
RAvg - 13.1
NetYds - 2493
NetAvg - 39.0

I decided to look at the top 30 punters by total punts, below I've included where Masthay ranks in each respective category. Please note that TBs, TB%, ATT, YDS, & RAvg were ordered inversely to reflect the best ranking having the lowest count in each category.

Tim Masthay's 2013 Punting Rankings:
Punts - 28th
Yards - 28th
PAvg - 21st
TB - 14th
TB% - 19th
IN20 - 22nd
IN20% - 17th
ATT - 2nd
YDS - 13th
RAvg - 27th
NetYds - 29th
NetAvg - 20th

Now, if you look at these rankings, what you can see is very telling for how Tim performed relative to others at the position. If we eliminate the variable statistical categories (ones that are ranked based on a total number rather than ones that are ranked based on percentages/averages), then you are left with PAvg, TB%, IN20%, RAvg, & NetAvg. In these categories, Tim is ranked 21st, 19th, 17th, 27th, & 20th out of 30 punters. By looking at these categories only, you are eliminating the variable factors of opportunities per punter. Each team's relative success or lack thereof will change the opportunity probability for each punter. But being that the top 30 punters punted individually within a range of 95 punts to 61 punts, the sample sizes are large enough for each punter to give credence to the categories that are based on percentages and averages. But even THAT is not enough...

So I broke down Masthay's statistics of punts at 3 different parts of the field relative to the whole field of punters. This is done to account for the variability of the field-position game. I measured the results again by only the categories of PAvg, TB%, IN20%, RAvg, & NetAvg. Here are the results as follows:

Field-Position Punting Stats & Rankings:
Punts between GB 1-20 yard lines:
- PAvg: 47.5 (21st), TB%: 0% (T-1st), IN20%: 0% (T-7th), RAvg: 7.4 (10th), & NetAvg: 44.5 (11th).

Analysis: First off, no one punter recorded a TB within this range, so everyone was tied for 1st. Only 6 people downed a punt inside the 20, so 24 punters were tied for 7th. Secondly, what the results of the above category of statistics tell me is that while Masthay's punts ranked 10th in return yard average and 11th net punting average, he is only 21st overall punting average. Does Tim have a booming leg from deep inside our own zone? Or are the lack of returns due to better long-range hang-time?

Punts between GB 21-50 yard lines:
- PAvg: 45.2 (23rd), TB%: 10.53% (26th), IN20%: 36.84% (12th) RAvg: 17.4 (30th), & NetAvg: 37.6 (28th).

Analysis: Either Masthay or our punt coverage is awful in this range on the field. 23rd in total average, 28th in net average and the most yards per opponents' returns... So basically, if our offense stalls before we reach mid-field but not deep in our own zone, Masthay and/or the punt coverage unit are atrocious. Granted, 36.84% of his punts in this range have been downed inside the 20 and 14 out of his 22 total Inside-the-20 punts are downed in this range. So feast or famine? Mainly famine.

Punts between Opponents' 49-20 yard lines:
- PAvg: 36.6 (9th), TB%: 11.11% (T-8th), IN20%: 88.89% (T-4th) RAvg: 0.0 (T-2nd), & NetAvg: 34.3(T-2nd).

Analysis: Wow. Now you have where Tim's value is quantified. He's top 10 in every category and practically eliminates all or any returns deep inside the opponent's territory. Keep in mind though, if you were to expand on his opportunities, you would see a slight decrease in his effectiveness due to the law of averages (he was tied for 23rd in total punts in this range). But even then, his numbers likely wouldn't stray too far from where they currently stand. Coffin-corner punts are Masthay's forte, apparently.
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gizmo2012


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 2738
PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Best punter GB has had for many years.
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gizmo2012


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 2738
PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Best punter GB has had for many years.
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dijatool


Joined: 17 Feb 2013
Posts: 360
Location: SoCal
PostPosted: Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did something similar for 2012. The results for punts between GB 21-50 were better, in part because of better special teams play overall but everything else looks pretty similar.

One thing omitted from that study is punts inside the 10. In that category Tim was number 2 overall for 2012.

The Packers screwed up letting Jon Ryan go, but Masthay has been a very good replacement since his arrival from the Colts.
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