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GM Rick Spielman - his good moves and his dumb ones
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1997
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2014 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Might not mean much coming from me, but take care, hope you're feeling better soon. Discussions are more fun when there are different opinions. You're a clear thinker, a definite asset to the board even (especially?) when we disagree. Iron sharpens iron and all that.
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milanb


Joined: 04 Jan 2008
Posts: 6087
Location: Ottawa, Ontario
PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2014 1:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
Might not mean much coming from me, but take care, hope you're feeling better soon. Discussions are more fun when there are different opinions. You're a clear thinker, a definite asset to the board even (especially?) when we disagree. Iron sharpens iron and all that.


Thanks, Krauser. It's nothing major.

I think I need to step away from my computer and get some sun this weekend.

Laughing
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battle2heaven


Joined: 10 Jan 2014
Posts: 776
PostPosted: Wed May 14, 2014 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In my head, this is how the draft went.


9. Teddy Bridgewater, QB Louisville
32. Anthony Barr, OLB UCLA
72. Scott Crichton, DE Oregon State
96. David Yankey, OG Stanford
145. Antone Exum, S Virginia Tech
182. Jerick McKinnon, RB Georgi Southern
184. Shamar Stephen, DT UCONN
220. Kendal James, CB Maine
223. Antonio Richardson, OT Tennessee
225. AC Leonard, TE Tennessee St
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1997
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peter King this week on on Kaepernick's extension: http://mmqb.si.com/2014/06/04/colin-kaepernick-contract-extension-alex-smith-negotiation/

Quote:
2) I think the length of Kaepernick’s rookie contract was a key factor. While the NFL took a sledgehammer to the previous rookie compensation system in the new collective bargaining agreement, Kaepernick was one of the few golden ticket winners. Although the second-round earnings on his rookie deal ($5.1 million over four years) paled in comparison to first-round riches, he was not saddled with a team option for a fifth year like first-rounders are—for example, the Panthers’ Cam Newton. That would have given the Niners two more years of contract control, and the lack of such leverage worked to Kaepernick’s benefit.

3) I think the 49ers may have played a heavy hand due to Kaepernick’s highly undervalued existing contract. While all the comparable quarterbacks who received extensions over the past year—Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler—would have earned double-digit millions the next year absent an extension, Kaepernick would have made approximately $1 million in 2014. With an always-present injury risk, the team used his undersized 2014 salary as a hammer here.


Reflects much of what I wrote about the 5th year option back in January, using Kaepernick as an example.

Pushing the point further:

Cam Newton (#1 2011)
Rookie contract: 4 years $22M
plus 5th year option at $14.67M
Total 5 years $36.67M
2014 cap hit: $7M
2015 cap hit: $14.67M
Total cap hit, years 4-5: $21.67M

Colin Kaepernick (#36 2011)
Rookie contract: 4 years, $5.13M
4th year salary from original deal remaining for 2014: $973,766
paid in first 3 years: $4.4M
renegotiated 4th year, 2014: $3.77M
5th year as part of extension: $17.26M
Total 5 years: $25.43M
2014 cap hit: $3.8M
2015 cap hit: $17.2M
Total cap hit, years 4-5: $21M

Teddy Bridgewater (#32 2014)
Rookie contract: 4 years, $6.85M
plus 5th year option @ average of 3rd-25th highest paid players at that position -- this year, that would be ~$10-11M. Let's say $11M to make it easier to compare.
Total 5 years: $17.85M
2017 cap hit: $2.18M
2018 cap hit: $11M
Total cap hit, years 4-5: $13.2M

5 year contract cost
Newton (including option, without extension): $36.67M
Kaepernick (including extension): $25.43M
Bridgewater (including option, without extension): $17.85M

Cap hit, years 4-5
Newton (including option, without extension): $21.7M
Kaepernick (including extension): $21M
Bridgewater (including option, without extension): $13.2M

In other words, Kaepernick's cap hit will be comparable to Newton's over the next 2 years, and his total salary over 5 years will be much higher than it would've been if he'd been drafted in the #32 slot like Bridgewater. Somehow, #36 is closer to #1 than to #32.

...

...from January 24

Krauser wrote:
The market inefficiency I mentioned above is that late first round picks are considered only slightly more valuable than early second round picks, if you're using a draft value calculator to organize a trade. But with the new CBA, a star player drafted late in the first is considerably more valuable (because can be retained for longer, for cheaper) than an equally successful player taken a few picks later at the top of the second.

Colin Kaepernick is a good example.
The Niners traded up from #45 to #36 to draft him, at the cost of a 4th and a 5th. Presumably they could have gotten into the bottom of the first (4-6 picks higher) with an additional late round pick, or by offering a 3rd and a 5th, or whatever.

Now Kaepernick's entering the last year of his rookie deal. He's a star. What will it cost SF to extend his contract? What would he net on the open market?

A safe bet would be something close to $20M a year for 5 or more years, in line with the current deals for Matthew Stafford and Joe Flacco. To retain him, the Niners will have to start paying him those numbers in 2015. A 5 year extension would run out in 2019.

If they'd taken him at #31 instead, they could offer him a 5th year extension this spring, which would lock him in through 2015 at no risk, and for a modest extra cost (taken late in the round, Kaepernick wouldn't earn the transition tag price in 2015 but the average of the 3rd-25th highest paid QBs by salary excluding bonuses, probably less than $10M per year).

The Niners would hold the threat of a franchise tagged 6th year as they opened negotiations in 2015. The negotiations could start with the worst case scenario 5th and 6th years as a baseline, so the overall price of the extension could be less while still offering a huge raise that's definitely in Keep's interest to sign. Refusing to sign would send him toward FA but would give the team an option of delaying that to 2017 or later, using the franchise tag. A lower overall price for a longer duration would then make the year to year cap hits lower.

Knowing that, the Niners might wish they'd traded into the late first instead of the early second to take their QB.


Drafting Bridgewater at #32 will make it easier for the Vikings to build a contender around him, particularly in 2017-18 (as their other 1st rounders will need extensions and some premium current talent will need to be replaced).
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vike daddy


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Joined: 12 Mar 2005
Posts: 73981
PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The NFL completed another of its belabored offseason lists this weekend, finishing off its list of 25 NFL non-rookies that are expected to “Make the Leap” to the big time of the NFL in 2014.

The list concluded with the selection of Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson as the No. 1 player expected to make the leap. But he was also the third Viking selected to the list, joining defensive end Everson Griffen (No. 13) and cornerback Xavier Rhodes (No. 24). The Vikings were the only team with three players on the list.

http://min.scout.com/2/1420593.html
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