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Ravens Players: Residual Value

 
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sp6488


Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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Location: MD
PostPosted: Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:56 pm    Post subject: Ravens Players: Residual Value Reply with quote

I began thinking of this when we were kicking around the remote possibility of Andre Johnson as a Raven. He's getting up there in years, but he's a guy I can see having a great deal of residual value. What I mean by that is that he will still be able to positively contribute once he's past his position's typical age of decline. Even if he loses some of his explosiveness/speed (or continues to lose it) I can see his size, strength and hands allowing him to contribute as a + possession receiver 3 or 4 years from now. Who are some Ravens you see having high residual value and who are some with low residual value (obviously this is all based on probabilities and anything could happen to any player at any time)? This clearly isn't as important in football where there are no guaranteed contracts, but it's worth discussing when considering who to sign long-term, etc.

High residual value:
Lardarius Webb - Even if he loses a step as a cornerback I think most of us agree that he could be a positive contributor as a safety.
Terrell Suggs - Has never been a pure speed/explosion guy. Incredibly strong and versatile. I think he's got another 4 or 5 years of quality play in him. FO seems to agree somewhat smoothing out his cap hit over a new extension.

Low residual value:
Torrey Smith - I love Torrey Smith and think that he's definitely worth a new contract, I just don't see him being productive much into his thirties as he's not particularly big, a particularly noted route runner, nor does he have elite hands. I think it would be prudent to sign him for 5 years or so then let him walk (even though he's one of my favorite Ravens).
Bernard Pierce - His running style is very violent and he always seems to be banged up. I could see us letting him walk after his rookie deal if he shows his rookie form again over the next two years and commands a big payday. I don't see him holding up over the long haul, even by RB standards.

Wildcard:
Ray Rice - So this was a tough one. Ray didn't look good, but I think there's a lot of blame to go the O-line and scheme as a whole (remember, BP averaged LESS YPC than Rice). If Rice can maintain his conditioning, he's a guy I could see hanging around for a while, particularly for a RB. His receiving skills and balance may allow him to contribute as a 3rd down back well after he can't be a feature back or primary member of a platoon (like a rich man's Kevin Faulk). This one is tough though and really pending how he looks this season.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 29, 2014 2:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I disagree about Lardarius Webb being someone with high residual value. I think a great deal of his value comes from his athleticism in tangent with his instincts.

With the lack of durability he's shown with his knees, along with his small frame, I don't think father time will be too helpful to him. I just can't see him being durable enough down the road for his style of play to continue to thrive.

In terms of the question:

High Residual Value
Terrence Brooks- This one is 100% projection. But Brooks is fast, physical, with quality instincts. This leads me to believe that even when he ages and his speed goes from elite to just good, he should still have enough speed and physicality to be successful.

Dennis Pitta- Pitta has some nice speed to be semi-effective on seam routes on occasion, but what makes him who he is... is his awesome agility. Even at an advanced age, he should still be able to gain separation from LBers using his agility and body control. Thus along with his size and hands, he should remain an effective 3rd down specialist for the duration of his career... something like a poor man's Tony Gonzalez (Falcons).

Low Residual Value
Marlon Brown- This may seem like I'm picking on the guy. But while he's certainly tall and has that going for him. But right now the only reason he's effective is because he has "just enough" athleticism to allow his size to thrive. But once his athleticism declines with age, he doesn't have the appropriate amount of physicality to be able to separate and produce as a possession option.

Haloti Ngata- Value is the keyword here. Ngata was always just an unstoppable athletic freak. However as age and durabiliy issues set in that have begun to rob him of his freakish qualities, we're left with a big strong guy that has only average to possibly above average technique. Had Ngata spent more time on mastering his craft and improving his balance, his prime could have been even more dominant and his decline much less steep. Ngata's residual value has been obvious for the past few seasons. While other elite players generally are able to still play at very high levels when hurt, Ngata is either fully healthy and dominating or has an injury and is thus made to be much less effective. That type of inconsistency fully explains my inclusion of Ngata here.
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wackywabbit


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I expect Suggs to age well. He's never had much athletically, other than just being big and strong.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wackywabbit wrote:
I expect Suggs to age well. He's never had much athletically, other than just being big and strong.

The same should be the case for Elvis Dumervil. Both he and Suggs are leverage pass rushers. They beat their man with leverage, technique, and lower body strength, not speed. It's why even with a messed up Achilles tendon, Suggs playing style was able to be semi-effective to the point where he obliterated Duane Brown in their matchup.

However, there's also something to be said about the point of no return.

To be a professional athlete in a sport, you generally need at least "x" amount of athleticism to be effective at your job. Suggs came in already low on the athletic scale. With enough age and injury factors, it's very possible that he simply reaches the point where he doesn't have enough athleticism to be effective enough at his job to justify his financial value.

Jarrett Johnson was an elite run stopper for many years, but I think he was another player that hit that athletic wall and thus when athletic decline sets in, he went from elite to average in a short period of time. Suggs could be in a similar camp.
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sp6488


Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

diamondbull424 wrote:
wackywabbit wrote:
I expect Suggs to age well. He's never had much athletically, other than just being big and strong.

The same should be the case for Elvis Dumervil. Both he and Suggs are leverage pass rushers. They beat their man with leverage, technique, and lower body strength, not speed. It's why even with a messed up Achilles tendon, Suggs playing style was able to be semi-effective to the point where he obliterated Duane Brown in their matchup.

However, there's also something to be said about the point of no return.

To be a professional athlete in a sport, you generally need at least "x" amount of athleticism to be effective at your job. Suggs came in already low on the athletic scale. With enough age and injury factors, it's very possible that he simply reaches the point where he doesn't have enough athleticism to be effective enough at his job to justify his financial value.

Jarrett Johnson was an elite run stopper for many years, but I think he was another player that hit that athletic wall and thus when athletic decline sets in, he went from elite to average in a short period of time. Suggs could be in a similar camp.


I get what you're saying, more athleticism is always > less athleticism in a vacuum. I think the real tipping point in this residual value discussion is how much a guy strictly relies on said athleticism and how much he can succeed through skills, knowledge, preparation, etc. as they fade. In these cases, I think Suggs is pretty well suited to age well.
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