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Contract forecast: Jordy Nelson
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svp


Joined: 11 Sep 2011
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Location: I took a football shaped pill and felt better.
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He's like the Gary Kasparov of football chess.
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NCPackFan


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sandybaby716 wrote:
Jsitton71# wrote:
BrettFavre004 wrote:
Brandon Marshall has more 1,000 yard seasons than Jordy has NFL seasons, despite being only 1 year older. Guy is a model of consistency and has put up sick numbers since he's joined the Bears.

Isn't so much a knock on Jordy, but Marshall is in the discussion for 2nd best in the game after Calvin. Unfortunately, being in his division, I also think he close to being in discussion for being 2nd best on his team.
You have to take times targeted in consideration. Marshall was always a clear #1 on every team. When him and Cutler were in Denver he was targeted a crazy amount because they were always in shootouts. Jordy just became a #1. He's always played with a loaded receiving core having to share targets with Finley, GJ's, Jones, Cobb.


Driver early on, too.

I think that the people who consider Marshall in the coversation for "right behind Calvin" have been looking only at total numbers and not what those numbers consist of. Also, I don't like to weigh career stats in these cases, as players can improve and get worse at a moments notice, so it has to be recent stats. For the record, I think it's AJ Green and it's not very close.



I have to agree, I don't doubt Marshall's talent but he's not a guy who intimidates you regularly. He's just a productive receiver and the only thing that really sets him apart is his height and route-running. Again, not saying he isn't a good player, just think he's a bit over-hyped.

I'd like to agree with Sandy about AJ Green but I can't help but put Julio Jones up there. I think there's a legit argument as to who's the 2nd best behind Megatron. Right now, I'd have Julio and Dez Bryant in the mix with Green. Marshall's a top-10 guy to me, but not a top-5 IMHO.
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deathstar


Joined: 06 Jun 2012
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When I think of Marshall I think of the 2010 game against the Dolphins. Williams did a respectable job - but got smoked for 10 receptions. I love Jordy but the guy isn't as consistent and therefore needs to be ranked below Marshall. There's just a wiggle and a physicality that Nelson lacks.
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NCPackers_08


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

deathstar wrote:
When I think of Marshall I think of the 2010 game against the Dolphins. Williams did a respectable job - but got smoked for 10 receptions. I love Jordy but the guy isn't as consistent and therefore needs to be ranked below Marshall. There's just a wiggle and a physicality that Nelson lacks.


I think they are comparable, but from different angles and for different reasons. Each has strengths in areas the other doesn't.
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Skypilot


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:15 pm    Post subject: Re: Nelson Reply with quote

NCPackers_08 wrote:
spilltray wrote:
Skypilot wrote:
In hindsight, letting Jenkins walk was not the right move….because Mike Neal, his heir apparent, couldn't stay healthy his first two years and was eventually moved to OLB. I understand why TT did it---Jenkins was over 30, but if you let him walk---get somebody who can fill the position properly. Same think with Corey Williams (who wasn't worth anywhere near what Cleveland payed him) and Bustin Harrell.

It's not so much letting the vet. walk as failing in the draft pick replacement. Kampman was easy, though. He did not fit Capers' scheme and fell apart physically the moment he left GB. Wells? TT was right on that one, too.

Don't know what's up w/Raji, but I'm thankful he got greedy and foolishly turned down Ted's most generous offer a year ago. Wink


Jenkins fell off a cliff too. That was his high value mark and he got more than he was worth. The fact that his replacement didn't pan out has absolutely no bearing on the merits of letting Jenkins walk.

And with Raji, I still don't believe there ever really was a big offer on the table. It just doesn't add up for way too many reasons.


100% correct with this emboldened.


Actually it does matter that Neal flopped. If you are going to let somebody walk, you better have a replacement (see Wells/Eds and EDs, Tretter, James Jones/Boykin.) Results matter at least as much as process. And, Jenkins had a good first season with Philly. After that it was downhill. He was still better both years than anything GB had because he could put pressure on the QB.

You can't have it both ways. IF TT made the right decision letting Jenkins walk (especially while throwing away an $11 million bonus in 2011 at the mediocrity Hawk in 2011 as part of the $33 million overpay) then TT failed to properly replace Jenkins with Neal, Wynn, Wilson, Jolly, Raji, et. al.

Can people honestly say the Packers were a better team/defense minus Jenkins in 2011 and 2012? Long term, Cullen had relatively little guaranteed $$$ and the Eagles suffered no serious cap consequences by cutting him in 2013. In 2013 GB burned another first round pick on Daytone Jones, in yet another effort to replace Jenkins.

Of course, this has little to do with Jordy Nelson other than the usual wagon-crircling around TT when he gets any criticism---other than if Nelson isn't signed to an extension in 2014 he will be the same age as CJ in '15 when TT dumped him for the immortal Mike Neal.
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NCPackers_08


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Nelson Reply with quote

Skypilot wrote:
Actually it does matter that Neal flopped. If you are going to let somebody walk, you better have a replacement (see Wells/Eds and EDs, Tretter, James Jones/Boykin.) Results matter at least as much as process. And, Jenkins had a good first season with Philly. After that it was downhill. He was still better both years than anything GB had because he could put pressure on the QB.

You can't have it both ways. IF TT made the right decision letting Jenkins walk (especially while throwing away an $11 million bonus in 2011 at the mediocrity Hawk in 2011 as part of the $33 million overpay) then TT failed to properly replace Jenkins with Neal, Wynn, Wilson, Jolly, Raji, et. al.

Can people honestly say the Packers were a better team/defense minus Jenkins in 2011 and 2012? Long term, Cullen had relatively little guaranteed $$$ and the Eagles suffered no serious cap consequences by cutting him in 2013. In 2013 GB burned another first round pick on Daytone Jones, in yet another effort to replace Jenkins.

Of course, none of this has little to do with Jordy Nelson. Just wagon-circling around TT.


See bolded statement:

Football on either side of the ball is a product of a unit as a whole, not one piece wholly. I know you know this--the aforementioned was more rhetorical rather than pompous. But I mention it because in a vacuum, Jenkins had a better year than what we had as his replacement. However, what about the supporting cast? What about the offenses his defense faced verses whom the Packers faced? How did injuries affect the people around him verses how it affected Neal and GB? Compound those questions with Neal's stunted out-break due to injuries and I think the argument is null and void.

I don't think you can simply match up production between two guys as a reason for judging the hindsight with the decision. Same thing we can't due regarding the move with Jordy.

If we want an indication of what could be the potential future if Jordy walks, then we should watch the Decker to NYJ move and how it affects both teams. While there are obvious differences, there are many similarities, and I think it is a good indicator of what could come for all involved. Again though, that is looking at things in a vacuum. So it comes down to value verses dollars and how the two correspond.
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Revel8


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A bit back on topic, if Nelson really wants to stay with the Packers I think there'd be no problem with that as long as he takes another team-friendly deal. If so, then a contract before the season would be much more likely.

However if he's looking for market value, then he might be priced out of Green Bay. If he is looking for market value, then Cobb's deal is a bit more likely to be done before Nelson's. Not because of talent, but because of each player's respective age and the team's current depth.

None of this is likely to be decided until closer to training camp though. It won't be until around that time that the coaching staff really knows what they have in their young talents.
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gizmo2012


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2014 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Revel8 wrote:
A bit back on topic, if Nelson really wants to stay with the Packers I think there'd be no problem with that as long as he takes another team-friendly deal. If so, then a contract before the season would be much more likely.

However if he's looking for market value, then he might be priced out of Green Bay. If he is looking for market value, then Cobb's deal is a bit more likely to be done before Nelson's. Not because of talent, but because of each player's respective age and the team's current depth.

None of this is likely to be decided until closer to training camp though. It won't be until around that time that the coaching staff really knows what they have in their young talents.


I am convinced both Jordy and Randall will be resigned. A team friendly deal for Jordy would be 8 million ant 9 or 10 million, and for Randall 6 million instead of 7 or 8 million. The Packers offense needs these receivers and the "young talent" can fight it out for 3, 4 5 and possibly 6.
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Kampman74


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 12, 2014 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well this is too easy, what did Welker get on his third contract.
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BobSacamano


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11259486/jordy-nelson-green-bay-packers-wants-10-million-per-year

Quote:
A source familiar with the negotiations said Nelson wants a deal worth at least $10 million per season.

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Packerraymond


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BobSacamano wrote:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11259486/jordy-nelson-green-bay-packers-wants-10-million-per-year

Quote:
A source familiar with the negotiations said Nelson wants a deal worth at least $10 million per season.



Seeing how a turd like Roddy White just got it, Jordy deserves it, whether or not we give it to him is another thing.
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jfinley88


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kampman74 wrote:
Well this is too easy, what did Welker get on his third contract.


good call.
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Ketchup


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Packerraymond wrote:
BobSacamano wrote:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11259486/jordy-nelson-green-bay-packers-wants-10-million-per-year

Quote:
A source familiar with the negotiations said Nelson wants a deal worth at least $10 million per season.



Seeing how a turd like Roddy White just got it, Jordy deserves it, whether or not we give it to him is another thing.
A turd like Roddy White? I don't even know what to say to such in ignorant comment.

But yes, Nelson deserves to get 10 million per. The only question is does it come from GB, or somewhere else.
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Tongue-Splitter


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No question in my mind Jordy deserves it, but...

This is tough. Jordy is a top ten favorite Packer of mine over the past twenty years. I want him to stay a Packer obviously, and he's worth ten million, but I don't know if I'd be too upset if it didn't happen. Fact is, he's 29 (or close) years old and we're only gonna be able to keep one of Jordy and Cobb. We've got Boykin and Adams and a long, long, long (by NFL standards) history of having excellent play from the receiver position.

Bottom line, I think either move would be a good idea. Damn, the business side is tough.
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NormSizedMidget


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 24, 2014 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Packerraymond wrote:
BobSacamano wrote:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11259486/jordy-nelson-green-bay-packers-wants-10-million-per-year

Quote:
A source familiar with the negotiations said Nelson wants a deal worth at least $10 million per season.



Seeing how a turd like Roddy White just got it, Jordy deserves it, whether or not we give it to him is another thing.


Finally, someone else who knows Roddy is a myth and invention of massive targeting short route fantasy football stat padding.

Such an overrated cat.
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