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hornbybrown


Joined: 25 Jan 2008
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Location: 1600 Pennyslvania Ave
PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 2:31 am    Post subject: Browns/Moneyball? Reply with quote

Are we about to become the NFL version of the Oakland A's?

We have seen it reported and had it confirmed by the Browns that they spent a lot on analytics.

The Oakland A's under Billy Beane and Bill James started a revolution in how baseball players were graded and what stats are actually important towards getting a win. (Moneyball by Michael Lewis is the best sports book I ever read)

Now my hope and feeling is that just maybe the browns are about to go down the same route.

Looking at our draft makes me believe this even more.

What wins football games? IMO there a three very important things that win you football games.

Scoring TD's
Time of possession
Turnovers

Now let's look at our draft.

The Two CB's we drafted are very good at getting INT's
The RB we drafted I read lead the nation in TD's(haven't checked this)
The QB scored TD's both passing and running.

Looking a bit further into the analytics. Every player we drafted had a 3rd round or better grade. There isn't much difference between a 6/7 round pick or a UDFA. Which is why we used our late round picks in trades to jump up and insure we got our guys.

Time of possession. We have made a huge up grade to our Running game both in scheme and personal

I think in Farmer we have a absolute stud of a GM. I couldn't be more excited about our prospects going forward.
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Estonianzulu


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 3:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like that he's into analytics, it's something I don't understand but I do respect. That being said, we have revenue sharing and Billy Beane has never taken the A's to the a World Series.

So if all Farmer does is win 9 games a year, occasionally get kicked out of the wild card and divisional rounds and save Haslam a lot of money, I won't be happy.
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hornbybrown


Joined: 25 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 4:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estonianzulu wrote:
I like that he's into analytics, it's something I don't understand but I do respect. That being said, we have revenue sharing and Billy Beane has never taken the A's to the a World Series.

So if all Farmer does is win 9 games a year, occasionally get kicked out of the wild card and divisional rounds and save Haslam a lot of money, I won't be happy.


That's kind of my point. We are in a far better position to make it work.

Moneyball the art of winning the unfair game. What Oakland achieved was amazing considering they had a third of the money to spend on players that the top teams did.

We are playing a fair game.
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hornbybrown


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 4:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you are into reading you really should read moneyball.

Great read
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Estonianzulu


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 4:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hornbybrown wrote:
If you are into reading you really should read moneyball.

Great read


I don't read, heck I don't even read posts in this forum. I just respond as a I chose.

But I get the idea. Whined Moneyball, I just also recognize its limitations. As great a GM as Beane is, he hasn't won anything.
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hornbybrown


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 4:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estonianzulu wrote:
hornbybrown wrote:
If you are into reading you really should read moneyball.

Great read


I don't read, heck I don't even read posts in this forum. I just respond as a I chose.

But I get the idea. Whined Moneyball, I just also recognize its limitations. As great a GM as Beane is, he hasn't won anything.


Because he is playing a unfair game. We are not. They don't have a cap the year the book is set the A's spent 43mil on players the Yankees spent 120mil.

We don't have to worry about that
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Sleazysaint


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 4:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Statistics mean a whole lot less in football when you only play 16 games versus baseball which has 182 games to draw statistical conclusions from along with less inherent variables to account for which otherwise skew statistical analysis.
The small sample size of an NFL season makes statistical analysis used by MLB GM's useless in attempting to apply to the NFL.
The methods of analysis used in football to put grades on prospects do not really have anything to do with what happened/happens in Oakland under Beane, so I don't see any relevant comparisons here at all.
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hornbybrown


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 4:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The point isn't the Oakland A's lack of wining a World Series. It's that Billy Beane and Bill James completely changed the way players are scouted in the MBL.
For there dollar they win by far more games than the rich teams thanks to working out what metrics win games.

The problem got Oakland was the rich teams caught on and now use the same systems but have far more money to do it with.
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hornbybrown


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 4:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sleazysaint wrote:
Statistics mean a whole lot less in football when you only play 16 games versus baseball which has 182 games to draw statistical conclusions from along with less inherent variables to account for which otherwise skew statistical analysis.
The small sample size of an NFL season makes statistical analysis used by MLB GM's useless in attempting to apply to the NFL.
The methods of analysis used in football to put grades on prospects do not really have anything to do with what happened/happens in Oakland under Beane, so I don't see any relevant comparisons here at all.


I agree that baseball lends itself to this a lot more. But it is far from useless in The NFL.
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hornbybrown


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 4:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hornbybrown wrote:
Sleazysaint wrote:
Statistics mean a whole lot less in football when you only play 16 games versus baseball which has 182 games to draw statistical conclusions from along with less inherent variables to account for which otherwise skew statistical analysis.
The small sample size of an NFL season makes statistical analysis used by MLB GM's useless in attempting to apply to the NFL.
The methods of analysis used in football to put grades on prospects do not really have anything to do with what happened/happens in Oakland under Beane, so I don't see any relevant comparisons here at all.


I agree that baseball lends itself to this a lot more. But it is far from useless in The NFL.


I think we have already seen one big change that Farmer has made. He knows the lack of value that there is in late round draft picks. We made none in rounds 5-7. They were used to trade up or for future picks. I think this trend will continue with Farmer
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duke2056


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 5:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think this might only apply about 5% as much as it would for baseball.

One on one matchups (hitter vs pitcher) are quite different than scheme in football.

Now as far as the way we do contracts and the way we invest in certain positions, sure, there is probably something to that, but the game changes all the time. Baseball isn't much different than it was 100 years ago. Is football??
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2014 draft prediction:

Zero chance the Browns draft a QB at pick 4, or trade up for a QB.

And Matt Ryan is so great he has one playoff win.
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hornbybrown


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 6:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

duke2056 wrote:
I think this might only apply about 5% as much as it would for baseball.

One on one matchups (hitter vs pitcher) are quite different than scheme in football.

Now as far as the way we do contracts and the way we invest in certain positions, sure, there is probably something to that, but the game changes all the time. Baseball isn't much different than it was 100 years ago. Is football??


Each play in a NFL game can have as many as 11 one on one matches up Wink

But really more what I'm getting at is the best use of assets. Why use a late round pick on someone who will get cut when instead you can use it to jump ahead of the Ravens and grab Terrance West (reports they were high on him) or jump the Chiefs to get Manziel (Reid said he was there pick at 23)
Plus working out the best scheme to win.
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duke2056


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 6:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

hornbybrown wrote:
duke2056 wrote:
I think this might only apply about 5% as much as it would for baseball.

One on one matchups (hitter vs pitcher) are quite different than scheme in football.

Now as far as the way we do contracts and the way we invest in certain positions, sure, there is probably something to that, but the game changes all the time. Baseball isn't much different than it was 100 years ago. Is football??


Each play in a NFL game can have as many as 11 one on one matches up Wink

But really more what I'm getting at is the best use of assets. Why use a late round pick on someone who will get cut when instead you can use it to jump ahead of the Ravens and grab Terrance West (reports they were high on him) or jump the Chiefs to get Manziel (Reid said he was there pick at 23)
Plus working out the best scheme to win.


I agree. To an extent this is happening with every team. Just look at RBs. They have been devalued by many teams and now seemingly by all teams.

Will Farmer be ahead of the curve on something before everyone else is? Who knows.

But as I way saying, it will be much harder to do than baseball given the type of game it currently is, and the type of game it will inevitably evolve into. Baseball hasn't changed, football is a much different game than 20-30 years ago as far as the way it is played and the way positions are valued.

WHich positions are best to use early picks on?
Which are best to use mid and late round picks on?
WHich players positions are best to go after in FA, and of those guys do you go for younger guys or older vets?

As far as this particular year, not sure exactly why we didnt end up using a pick in the 5th, 6th or 7th, but I think part of it was that we already drafted 6 players that will all likely make the team, and he knew he would get a few UDFAs.

HOPEFULLY he is going the value route I have been preaching since the first day I posted in a forum, and trading picks for better future picks.

That 4th and 6th we got extra next year hopefully turn into a 2016 3rd and 5th, then a 2017 2nd and 4th, or some variation of that. This is what a competent GM will do, and this is what a competent owner will allow his GM to do.

That could indeed be his "moneyball". Never draft a player in the 6th or 7th, and use those picks to trade for future picks every year for a few years until they are 2nds and 3rds, then use them for players or trading up. I can only DREAM we do that.

What is the hit rate on a 6th or 7th rounder??? I guarantee you it is lower than 1/4 of a 2nd rounder......and if we started this now, four years from now we would have multiple 2nds every year forever.
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Zero chance the Browns draft a QB at pick 4, or trade up for a QB.

And Matt Ryan is so great he has one playoff win.
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hornbybrown


Joined: 25 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 7:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

duke2056 wrote:
hornbybrown wrote:
duke2056 wrote:
I think this might only apply about 5% as much as it would for baseball.

One on one matchups (hitter vs pitcher) are quite different than scheme in football.

Now as far as the way we do contracts and the way we invest in certain positions, sure, there is probably something to that, but the game changes all the time. Baseball isn't much different than it was 100 years ago. Is football??


Each play in a NFL game can have as many as 11 one on one matches up Wink

But really more what I'm getting at is the best use of assets. Why use a late round pick on someone who will get cut when instead you can use it to jump ahead of the Ravens and grab Terrance West (reports they were high on him) or jump the Chiefs to get Manziel (Reid said he was there pick at 23)
Plus working out the best scheme to win.


I agree. To an extent this is happening with every team. Just look at RBs. They have been devalued by many teams and now seemingly by all teams.

Will Farmer be ahead of the curve on something before everyone else is? Who knows.

But as I way saying, it will be much harder to do than baseball given the type of game it currently is, and the type of game it will inevitably evolve into. Baseball hasn't changed, football is a much different game than 20-30 years ago as far as the way it is played and the way positions are valued.

WHich positions are best to use early picks on?
Which are best to use mid and late round picks on?
WHich players positions are best to go after in FA, and of those guys do you go for younger guys or older vets?

As far as this particular year, not sure exactly why we didnt end up using a pick in the 5th, 6th or 7th, but I think part of it was that we already drafted 6 players that will all likely make the team, and he knew he would get a few UDFAs.

HOPEFULLY he is going the value route I have been preaching since the first day I posted in a forum, and trading picks for better future picks.

That 4th and 6th we got extra next year hopefully turn into a 2016 3rd and 5th, then a 2017 2nd and 4th, or some variation of that. This is what a competent GM will do, and this is what a competent owner will allow his GM to do.

That could indeed be his "moneyball". Never draft a player in the 6th or 7th, and use those picks to trade for future picks every year for a few years until they are 2nds and 3rds, then use them for players or trading up. I can only DREAM we do that.

What is the hit rate on a 6th or 7th rounder??? I guarantee you it is lower than 1/4 of a 2nd rounder......and if we started this now, four years from now we would have multiple 2nds every year forever.


The last to paragraphs are exactly what I'm getting at.
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buno67


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PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2014 7:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IDK

I think it be very hard to build a team around analytics. I know with baseball you can do it because the game allows for it by its roster, how you play players, and when you play players. Also analytics is more important type deal when you are building line ups when you want a go who can hit with runners on, a guy who hits as a lead off man, and etc.

To me you really cant do that with the NFL. You dont see subs being made, well this guy is a good run blocker so lets put him in this sitatuon. You will tell your hand to the opposing team. To me you use the analytics to get you the best guy, not the best guy for the situation they will be played in.

I think the analytics farmer used to true who they thought was truly the best QB. Their analytics prolly looked at every situation a player was in and how they performed.

To me analytics is huge in baseball to a point because b/w mangers, they can play a chess match. IF this guy is going to throw a lefty, we are going to use this batter because he bats. 300 vs lefties or if he throws a righty im going to use this batter because of this. In football you cant do that. You can make as made subs you want, where in baseball once you pull a guy from the game he is done.

Its a good idea in theory building a team on analytics like in baseball but the game of football, to me it would be impossible to work. If it was about analytics, there wouldnt be so much pressure on finding that franchise QB, that you could piece the perfect team together and could win with an avg QB. If you dont have a legit QB, you will not win in the NFL
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