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The Metrics Mock Draft

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:25 pm    Post subject: The Metrics Mock Draft Reply with quote

So this mock may not be realistic. Then again, it may be. It's impossible to tell because before the draft a number of prospects are "rising" or "falling."

In this particular mock, the Eagles will be taking prospects whose future NFL success is backed up through statistics/numbers. The NFL draft, or any draft for that matter, is an imperfect science but there still needs to be a reliance on numbers.

Because of that, I present to you the Eagles draft for success:

Round 1 (22): Darqueze Dennard, CB out of Michigan State University

The media has attached the moniker of “Air Traffic Controller” on the senior cornerback and dubbed the territory that Dennard covers as a “No Fly Zone.” The Spartan defender has more than lived up to that lofty billing. Through thirteen games during his senior campaign, Dennard has had 111 passes targeted into his area, allowing just seventeen of those tosses to be completed (15.32%) for 91 yards, as he recorded fourteen passes defended (four interceptions, ten deflections) and rerouted/jammed his man coverage assignments away from 62 of those tosses (55.86%).

Those receivers produced an average of 5.35 yards per reception vs. Dennard, the lowest figure by any starting defensive back since the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) era began in 1998. He also held the opposition to an average of 0.8198 yards per pass attempt.

That pass attempt figure is the lowest ever recorded by any college player since The NFL Draft Report, a scouting information service, began compiling in-depth statistical reports for the league in 1968. In fact, only two other players went through an entire season allowing less that one yard per pass attempt.

Jim Marsalis of Tennessee State, held those receivers to just 0.969 yards per attempt in 1968. Marsalis was selected in the first round of the 1969 NFL Draft by the Kansas City Chiefs, earning league Defensive Rookie of the Year honors that season. He started for the Chiefs throughout the 1976 season before ending his career as a member of the New Orleans Saints in 1977.

Marsalis was later followed by Deion Sanders of Florida State in 1988 (0.935 yard average), as the two-time NFC Defensive Player of the Year made his professional debut with the Atlanta Falcons in 1989 after they selected him in the first round of the draft. He played for Atlanta until 1993, spending time with San Francisco (1994), Dallas (1995-1999) and Washington (2000) before ending his NFL career with Baltimore (2004-2005). That places Dennard is some very elite company, but the “ever so humble” Georgia native has only one goal in mind as his college career is coming to an end – helping the Spartans defeat Stanford in the 2014 Rose Bowl.

per http://spartannation.com/2013/12/20/the-amazing-in-depth-nfl-analysis-of-spartan-cb-darqueze-dennard-a-must-read-courtesy-of-the-nfl-draft-report/

Round 2 (54): Donte Moncrief, WR out of Ole Miss

After trying several different combinations, I finally arrived at a metric I am calling the Adjusted Explosiveness Index. This Index takes the same three numbers, vertical, broad and 40 time, but adds height measured in inches and weight to the vertical and broad before dividing out the 40.

The results were stunning.

Unsurprisingly, Calvin Johnson was far and away the high scorer on this metric.

More importantly, of the five players who have scored better than 107 in this metric since 1999, four are Pro Bowlers, two are almost certainly on their way to the Hall of Fame, and Julio Jones could make it three if he continues his current pace.

Even Stephen Hill has a shot to be a solid NFL wide receiver. He has certainly shown flashes of big-time ability, and one can only imagine what type of wide receiver he could become in a competent offense with a competent quarterback.

A player scoring above a 107 in this metric seems to signal a highly elevated chance at NFL success. Donte Moncrief did not quite reach that plateau, but his 106.02 is the ninth highest score since 1999. Of the three other players that have cracked the 106 mark, Chris Chambers was a Pro Bowler, Tyrone Calico was a player I always loved, and Mark Harrison missed his rookie 2013 campaign with a foot injury.

More importantly, Moncrief scored a full three points better than any other player in the 2014 wide receiver class.

per http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46395/349/donte-moncrief-metric-allstar

Round 3 (86): Chris Smith, DE/OLB out of Arkansas

Duffman57 wrote:
Chris Smith so far is the only DL who reached explosive group 2

Waldo's Formula: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmG38OtkC7qLdE1JTDRwaUJvZ2ZZMGtWM3NHN052U3c&usp=sharing#gid=0

Round 4 (122): Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, OT out of McGill

SPARQ score = 129.9 (elite)
I'll abstain from talking too much about him as he's one of Jared's guys and I'm much less educated on the subject. Suffice to say: he's an absolute freak, Sweezy-level outlier of an athlete playing the offensive line. He'd also be Sweezy-raw. Depending on how you've handled the Sweezy experience, this could be either a positive or a negative. Regardless, his numbers are like out of this world. The only offensive lineman to beat his 3-cone was a converted tight end. It's probably going to be a long journey for whatever NFL team takes him, but there's real potential for a gem here. He fits the profile perfectly.

per http://www.fieldgulls.com/nfl-draft/2014/3/31/5566802/nfl-draft-2013-sparq-profiling-part-1-offensive-line

Round 5 (162): Antone Exum, CB out of Virginia Tech

Burn percentage of 36%, which would be better than any CB this year (A 43% burn rate is the cut off for an elite corner). Was targeted quite a bit, so his 20 passes defensed are nice but are a product of being targeted so much. In 2011, his burn percentage was 39%, so he's been consistent over the past two years. If he can keep his burn percentage consistent over three years, he’ll have to be recognized as a top prospect.

per http://thesidelineview.com/columns/nfl/metrics-study-2014-draft-prospects

Round 7 (237): Brandon Denmark, LEO out of Florida A&M

SPARQ score = 151 (elite)
Brandon Denmark is one of the most gifted athletes in the draft, and probably the league. He's tall, has long limbs, and explodes into tackles. His broad jump is 11'4", which is stupid, and it's not just that he can test well; the way he plays seems to support the test result.

per http://www.fieldgulls.com/nfl-draft/2014/4/11/5598018/nfl-draft-2014-sparq-profiling-part-6-leo
PowerElite wrote:
Please stop responding to my posts. You are a consistently terrible poster and aren't worth my time to thoroughly refute your drivel.

Last edited by Poloc2289 on Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:33 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Highlight videos for each prospect:

Dennard: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AARb846L29o

Moncrief: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bu2xu0ijeFY

Smith: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9wTEb-O8O8

Duvernay-Tardif: http://www.hudl.com/athlete/1279374/laurent-duvernay-tardif

Exum: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEhFrt50Kqg

Denmark: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptk_oKKYFp8
PowerElite wrote:
Please stop responding to my posts. You are a consistently terrible poster and aren't worth my time to thoroughly refute your drivel.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Think there will be better WR's we can draft there than Moncrief, but otherwise I like it. I don't think Dennard will fall to 22, he seems to be on the rise at the right time, don't be surprised to see him take a late rise like Mark Barron a few years ago.
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 10:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Eagles don't have a LEO in their defense. The terminology is predator duh.

RainbowCarebear wrote:
Anna Kendricks are always nice.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 23, 2014 5:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't imagine Dennard falling that low given that scouting report that the NFL Draft Scouting Report gave him. Those numbers are insane.
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