Joined: 25 Feb 2013
|Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2014 12:37 pm Post subject:
|khodder wrote: |
|JLW wrote: |
|QB purgatory is a stupid concept.
It assumes a few things which aren't true:
That you can't win with an average QB.
That a better QB will never be available to you if you don't pick in the top 10.
That having an average QB prevents you from taking an upgrade if one presents itself.
Of course our D was more responsible than Carson. That kind of backs up the fact that you don't need to have a great QB to have success. That defense carried our mediocre quarterbacked and pathetic rushing team to a 10-6 record against a difficult schedule. The end goal is to win the Super Bowl, not to have the best QB.
It is not a stupid concept; Look at the cuts and sacrifices the Ravens had to make when they committed the money they did to Joe Flacco; an average QB.
Purgatory really starts when you begin to pay your average QB elite QB money. With Palmer's cap hit moving from $4M to $12M this year we are moving from; good value at QB to; QB taking up too much of the cap value. We have already seen one concession on defense this team has had to make to carry the Palmer contract. Not being able to keep Dansby in town.
It does not assume that you cannot get a good QB outside the top 10; It just values the factual evidence provided that getting an elite QB outside of the top 10 in the draft is very rare. We are talking one every three to four drafts.
It does not assume that it prevents you from taking an "upgrade" at QB, the money aspect does. The Ravens could be in a spot to land Teddy Bridgewater; you know why he is likely not even on their radar? The money they have committed to Flacco. Look at how the situation plays out in Cincinnati soon. Andy Dalton is going to be looking for a big payday; whether or not he gets his $$$ is going to either have a positive or negative effect on the Bengals being able to keep their young, talented, currently cheap core together on defense.
Of course the ultimate goal is to win the Superbowl, not have the best QB, but you know the easiest way to stay competitive year in year out in the NFL for a decade plus? Have the best QB in the league.
Part of the reason we were able to have success this season this season defensively was because we had an elite ILB playing on a cheap deal (Dansby), we have two top notch DB's (Mathieu and Peterson) playing on their rookie deals, no money at all committed at the safety position, another cheap, top notch ILB on a cheap deal (Washington). Really to only place we have big money invested defensively is the DL; Moving forward that is going to change. We are going to have to spend big to retain Peterson and Mathieu, we are going to have to invest at safety, we are likely going to have to invest in a pass rusher. We are going to lose key defensive players that we cannot afford to keep any longer (Dansby).
Last season in Arizona was a perfect scenario. A QB playing on a cheap deal, lots of top defensive players on cheap deals. That is unsustainable going forwards. The NFL is a business where you need to be in a win now mode year in year out, but also need to continue to prepare and invest in the future. Making bad investments at QB is the fastest way to the wrong end of the pecking order in the NFL; Cardinals fans of all people should know this.
We have already seen the quantum leap in quality when you move from backup quality to average starter at QB. There is a similar leap in quality form average to elite.
If you can make sense of that incoherent rant then...cool. If not, just know that QB Puragatory is real. You can avoid it by dealing with the QB position correctly; but if you don't do it correctly you are setting yourself up for failure.
The Ravens didn't have to make those cuts because of Flacco, they did them because they were the right thing to do. Ed Reed is done. The Browns overpaid Kruger, the Dolphins overpaid Ellerbe. They didn't have to drop Boldin, but they did anyways. Probably for the best considering they are doing a little rebuilding.
Flacco's contract isn't as bad as a lot of people like to make it out to be. He only hit the cap for $6.8M last year, and only hits it for $14.8M and $14.5M over the next two years. That's entirely reasonable. There's not a ton of guaranteed money in that contract. There are 12 QBs with more guaranteed money in their contracts than Flacco. Do you think he's actually going to hit their cap for $28.5M in 2016? No way. They are going to restructure him. His contract only looks so bad because all the non-guaranteed salary at the end of the contract that he will never see is inflating the average annual value. The Ravens didn't end up where they are purely because they committed money to Flacco.
Getting an elite QB even in the top 10 is extremely rare. It's not something you can ever count on getting. To base your team building strategy around getting one is foolish. Even so, look where the consensus top QBs over the past several years came from. Aaron Rodgers (24th overall), Peyton Manning (1st overall), Drew Brees (originally drafted in the second round, later acquired through free agency), Tom Brady (6th round). Getting a good QB is hard period. You always need to be looking to improve that position, the answer doesn't always necessarily have to come by selecting one in the top 10, and the answer at QB doesn't necessarily have to be an "elite" QB.
If the Bengals are foolish enough to pass on Bridgewater if he is available because they have Dalton, that's just a flat out poor decision. There's no imaginary purgatory concept preventing them from making the right decision, they are just stupid. Extending him before the draft in the first place would be a stupid decision. No amount of money that Dalton will command is worth more than having Teddy. It's worth drafting Teddy and dropping Dalton and his contract (assuming he gets one) as soon as possible. Both the Seahawks and 49ers were smart enough to move on from their previous QBs when an opportunity presented itself. The Seahawks didn't seem to care about the money they just paid Flynn. Purgatory implies you are somehow stuck there. Paying an average QB some money doesn't mean you are stuck with him. The Eagles moved on from an average QB in Vick (albeit his contract wasn't that much of a hindrance). The Jets moved on from a below average QB they had a lot of money committed to in Sanchez. Having an average QB, or paying a QB a lot of money absolutely does not mean you are stuck with him.
We did benefit from not paying most of our key players much money, but we also had a lot of dead money, a WR making QB money, and a few other unnecessarily large contracts from marginal contributors. The two things balance each other out to a degree.
Also, Dalton or Cutler absolutely could win a Super Bowl if you surround them with enough talent, and if they manage to play a few good games in a row. Dalton has had good 4 game stretches in his career, who is to say he can't have one during the playoffs? Winning in the playoffs isn't something that is magically reserved for "elite" QBs. Good QBs can struggle in the playoffs, average or even bad QBs can play well in the playoffs (Flacco, Sanchez).