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Dirk's radically hopeful offseason

 
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Dirk Gently


Joined: 04 Jun 2008
Posts: 6105
PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:03 pm    Post subject: Dirk's radically hopeful offseason Reply with quote

I say this, not because I think it's particularly far-fetched, but because the cap situation actually isn't that hard to manage, thanks to the Ravens and Terrell Suggs. They gave us a blue print for re-doing Ware, whose last years were intended to be redone, to begin with, I'm fairly sure. And with a redo of Ware along Suggs lines, we get a very nice result.

Romo, Lee, and Scandrick have restructures built in, so I take those.

Next I cut Austin and Orton outright. I was a big fan of the June 1 for them, but I think I'd like the 2015 savings more than the 2014. They save us very little this year, but the savings in 2015 are dramatic and important. I also cut Parnell, Irvin, Brown, Clutts, Wilson as small savings.

Next was a series of small extensions to player who can start, until replaced, but whom I'd like to keep as primary backups for a few years-- Costa and Durant are given 2 and 1 yr vet minimum extensions with 2014 guaranteed. Bernadeau and Free are given longer extensions (5 yrs total for each) with small escalations to bring their total cap numbers to about $2.5m and $4m per year (including prorated bonus) respectively.

Finally, the piece de resistance. Demarcus Ware signs a 1yr extension, bringing him under contract through 2018. He gets a $10m signing bonus, $3m guaranteed for 2014, $2m guaranteed for 2015, a $6m salary with $2m guaranteed for 2016, and $5m voidable in each 2017 and 2018. Total contract 5yr, $31m, $17m guaranteed -- a little more than Suggs; a lot more savings than Suggs.

Those moves make it likely that Ware retires a Cowboy and give us a total of almost $10m in 2014 cap space and, more importantly, almost $22m in 2015.

From there, it's easy-peasey to re-sign Smith, Bryant, and possibly even Hatcher if we like.
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Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P
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Dirk Gently


Joined: 04 Jun 2008
Posts: 6105
PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tyron Smith is a stud. I make him the second highest paid Tackle in the NFL as well as 1st in guaranteed money. Only Joe Thomas got more. Jason Peters got more per year, but on a much shorter contract and with less guaranteed $.

7 years, $77m, $33m guaranteed.

Signing Bonus, $15m
2014 - $3m guaranteed
2015 - $7m guaranteed (designed to be restructured)
2016 - $8m guaranteed (designed to be resturctured)
2017 - $11m
2018 - $12m
2019 - $11m
2020 - $10m

Remaining 2014 Cap Space - $6m
Remaining 2015 Cap Space - $12m (with $6m in built in restructure, not counting Romo)
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first-pick mock draft
Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P


Last edited by Dirk Gently on Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:38 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Dirk Gently


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Posts: 6105
PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dez Bryant is also a stud, but unlike Smith, has some health concerns, and, in addition, plays a much more volatile position, where a guy can go from all world to also-ran in one play, so the position, in general, commands less guaranteed money. I give him a bigger contract, but with less guaranteed money. It makes him the 3rd highest paid WR of all time, but with guaranteed money second only to Megatron.

7 years, $84m, $28m guaranteed.

Signing Bonus, $12m
2014 - $1m guaranteed
2015 - $8m guaranteed (designed to be restructured)
2016 - $10m, $8m guaranteed (designed to be resturctured)
2017 - $12m
2018 - $12m
2019 - $15m
2020 - $15m

Remaining 2014 Cap Space - $4.4m
Remaining 2015 Cap Space - $1.6m (but with $13m in built in restructures, not counting Romo)
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first-pick mock draft
Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P


Last edited by Dirk Gently on Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:38 pm; edited 3 times in total
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Dirk Gently


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This leaves us in a bit of a pinch. It's only going to take about $2.5-3m to sign the rookie group, but that doesn't leave us enough to sign a real impact at free agent. There is also word from Stephen that Dallas doesn't want an impact free agent anyhow.

But there's additional word that Dallas is informally talking to Hatcher and Spencer's agent. I believe Spencer will come back on a one or two year "show me" deal, which I won't go into, here. Replace the Durant extension with Spencer's deal and it'll be just about a wash.

But I think Hatcher is worth bringing back at the right price and, given his age and recent injuries, I think there's a chance Dallas can offer the right price. But where does the money come from?

I believe we offer the Senator a win-win contract extension. Extending his contract 1 year leaves us a lot of flexibility on what we do. I convert $4m of his 2014 salary to signing bonus, reduce his 2015 salary to $3m in return for guaranteeing it, and tack the other $2m on the back end as the extension. He keeps his money, gets more of it up front, and gets $7m of it guaranteed in return for moving $2m of it out 4 yrs down the road. It's all accounting, but it bumps our 2014 cap room up to $7.6m and 2015 up to 2.98m with $13m in non-Romo restructures built in.

Then I give hatcher this:

4yr, $26m, $8m signing bonus, total $11m guaranteed

2014 - $3m, guaranteed
2015- $4m
2016, $6m
2017, $6m

He's salary cap neutral to cut in 2015. As long as he';s performing, we can keep him at reasonable money.

If he gets more than that out there, best wishes, tiger. Well done.

Final numbers $3m in cap space for $2014, $3m in the red for 2015 but with $13m in built in restructures without touching Romo's deal.

If that cuts it too close for most, I'm totally ok with letting Hatcher walk, as well, but for those who want to keep him, this is our best shot.
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first-pick mock draft
Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P
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Dirk Gently


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Posts: 6105
PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OR

Stephen Jones intimated that they would get under the cap before redoing Ware's contract.


That would look something like this:

Restructure Romo, Lee, Scandrick
Cut Orton, Costa, Parnell, Durant, Irvin, Brown, Kearse, Clutts, Wilson

2014 - $432k under
2015 - $3.4m over

Then cut Austin June 1 and use Ware's deal to get money for Dez, Tyron, and other signings.

Edit: now giving Ware the same deal creates $12.7m in 2014 and 10.9m in 2015 before extending (and cheapening) Free and Bernadeau.

Maybe Stephen *does* indeed know what he's doing.
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first-pick mock draft
Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P
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Dirk Gently


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Posts: 6105
PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Extend Free one year, give him a $4m signing bonus, vet min guaranteed in 2014, 1m guaranteed in 2015, and $2m in 2016-7. You have 4 years of possible starter/ solid back up at RT.

Extend Bernadeau 2 yrs, give him a $2m signing bonus and 750k in 2014, then $1.25m in 2015,, and $1m each in 2016-17. Once again, possible starter/solid back up for next 4 years.

Salary cap state: $15.9m in 2014, $18.4m in 2015. Start signing guys.
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first-pick mock draft
Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P
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Dirk Gently


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Posts: 6105
PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The extra 2014 cap lets us move some of Dez and Tyron's signing bonus into 2014 guarantees, so they *don't* pro-rate.

The players get more money sooner, and we save cap space all the way down the road. Same deals as above, just shift $3m in signing bonus to 2014 guaranteed money for Dez and Tyron

Final #s: 2014- $5.6m space, 2015 - $767k over, but with $13m in restructures built in.
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first-pick mock draft
Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P
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TD-ES-JJ


Joined: 25 Feb 2005
Posts: 1773
PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Man, you put some serious work into that. I don't understand most of it. But it appears to be well thought out. Only problem is JJ probable won't follow it because it makes too much sense. There isn't anything flashy about it and we all know JJ has to make a big splash somewhere.
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flyingmonkey30


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good work DG. I want to play around with that on overthecap
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http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=490478t=447580&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
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Dirk Gently


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Posts: 6105
PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 9:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

flyingmonkey30 wrote:
Good work DG. I want to play around with that on overthecap
greatest thing ever.

Want an eye opener? Cut ware, Austin, Orton, free, Parnell, costa, and durant straight up. Restructure Romo, Lee, and Scandrick.

Tell me Stephen Jones isn't a genius.
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first-pick mock draft
Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P
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Dirk Gently


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 22, 2014 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, Consider Garrett, Kiffin, Marinelli, all in contract years.

This thing is designed to be blown up in 2015. It's been this year or bust all along.
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first-pick mock draft
Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P
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Dallas94Ware


Joined: 20 Feb 2008
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Location: Queens, NY
PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2014 7:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Dirk's radically hopeful offseason Reply with quote

Dirk Gently wrote:

Next I cut Austin and Orton outright. I was a big fan of the June 1 for them, but I think I'd like the 2015 savings more than the 2014. They save us very little this year, but the savings in 2015 are dramatic


The best part of this is indeed the 2015 savings. It's important to remember that the future is what we need to focus on. This team has enough veteran capability and young player potential to compete for the division and be in playoff contention (which we have been despite falling just short - and once there, who knows?). We don't need to have the big bucks to spend right now, and having it available in the near future when some vital pieces may retire or be hard to sign will be much more beneficial than having the money to sign one or two guys right now.

This goes double if Garrett is gone after this final contract year. And signing Dez and Tyron need to be priorities, which means we better have the cash to pay out big deals at the end of this upcoming season.

I say this is the best route for sure.

Quote:

Next was a series of small extensions to player who can start, until replaced, but whom I'd like to keep as primary backups for a few years-- Costa and Durant are given 2 and 1 yr vet minimum extensions with 2014 guaranteed. Bernadeau and Free are given longer extensions (5 yrs total for each) with small escalations to bring their total cap numbers to about $2.5m and $4m per year (including prorated bonus) respectively.

Not sure I'd want to give Free that much a year, and if he wants to go look for that elsewhere I'd have no problem letting him. We need to stop paying for average players as a whole. You can get average for much cheaper than that with smart drafting or cheap FA's who can simply fit the system and use their brain well. Free bounced back this year, but he's still not much more than an average, capable veteran and we can get that elsewhere.

Though that would require smart drafting in later rounds or a Selvie-style signing, which all seem to be too far between on this team. So perhaps just paying for average doesn't seem so bad, in that case...lol

Dirk Gently wrote:
Also, Consider Garrett, Kiffin, Marinelli, all in contract years.

This thing is designed to be blown up in 2015. It's been this year or bust all along.


Saw this in the topic review while I was replying to the original post. That is exactly what I was saying in my first quote reply - if this team doesn't improve and we move in a new direction staff wise, future spending money is that much more important.

Garrett's had 4 seasons now to build this team as he sees fit, and it is now time to cash in on that investment. If he cannot, then moving on is likely...and we'll need the ability to let the next head coach to build the team to his design.

This is about the only mock offseason that I have read which I can really say all makes good sense to me.

Hey Dirk, let's get jobs running a franchise. You work the GM spot, I'll be Director of Scouting. We could turn the Jags around.
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Dirk Gently


Joined: 04 Jun 2008
Posts: 6105
PostPosted: Mon Feb 24, 2014 8:35 pm    Post subject: Re: Dirk's radically hopeful offseason Reply with quote

Dallas94Ware wrote:

Hey Dirk, let's get jobs running a franchise. You work the GM spot, I'll be Director of Scouting. We could turn the Jags around.


Good for me. My brother is already there, too.

One thing about Free is that he does have considerable leftovers from his original signing bonus. It's almost impossible to pay him less than $4m a year at this point just because of the vet mins.

My base salaries were $1m, $1m, $2m, $2m for the four years.
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first-pick mock draft
Mack, OLB; Sutton, DT; Bailey, FS; Abbrederis, WR; Bitonio, OT; Halapio, OG; Easley, DT; Jean-Baptiste, CB; Murray, QB; Brown, OLB; McKinnon, RB; Saunders, WR; Hornsey, P
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