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Week 13 Playoff Picture and Projections
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 872
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:54 pm    Post subject: Week 13 Playoff Picture and Projections Reply with quote

5 more crucial games left and the division still isnt sealed up yet. Its hard to believe that the Steelers are back in this thing but they are

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Seeds:
1.Broncos 9-2
2.Patriots 8-3
3.Colts 7-4
4.Bengals 7-4
5.Chiefs 9-2
6.Titans 5-6

In the Hunt:
7.Steelers 5-6
8.Ravens 5-6
9.Chargers 5-6
10.Jets 5-6
11.Dolphins 5-6
12.Raiders 4-7
13.Browns 4-7
14.Bills 4-7

The Bengals might be only 1 game behind the Pats, but I think there hopes of getting that bye week is over after the Pats already beat the Broncos. 3 seed is still in the picture, but the division needs to be sealed first.

Games of Importance:

Thanksgiving afternoon and night

1.Raiders @ Cowboys - Need Cowboys win (one more Raiders loss and they are out of the picture)

1.Steelers @ Ravens - Make your pick (you can make an arguement for either one. I'd rather see the Steelers win though, since the Bengals already beat them once while the Ravens could still cause a problem)

1st Slate

1.Titans @ Colts - Need Titans win (Next week against the Colts will be big)
2.Patriots @ Texans - Need Texans win (Maybe theres still a chance for the 2nd seed if the Pats lose this)
3.Dolphins @ Jets - Need Jets win (6th seed implications on the line here. Dolphins already beat the Bengals though, Jets didnt)
4.Jaguars @ Browns - Need Jaguars win (I just want to watch the Browns suffer at this point)

2nd Slate
1.Broncos @ Chiefs - Need Broncos win (Still need the Chiefs to stay in the 5th seed)
2.Falcons @ Bills - Need Falcons win (Bills are barely alive, but there schedule coming up is favorable for them)

Projected Playoff Standings

Mr.Cincinnati's Playoff Machine

1.Broncos 14-2
2.Patriots 13-3
3.Bengals 10-6
4.Colts 10-6
5.Chiefs 12-4
6.Steelers 8-8

7.Dolphins 8-8
8.Chargers 8-8
9.Jets 8-8
10.Titans 7-9
11.Bills 7-9
12.Ravens 6-10
13.Browns 5-11
14.Raiders 5-11
15.Jaguars 3-13
16.Texans 2-14
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LondonBengal


Joined: 07 Feb 2010
Posts: 3281
Location: London, England, UK
PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:33 am    Post subject: Re: Week 13 Playoff Picture and Projections Reply with quote

MrCincinnati wrote:
Steelers @ Ravens - Make your pick (you can make an arguement for either one. I'd rather see the Steelers win though, since the Bengals already beat them once while the Ravens could still cause a problem)


BAL have PIT/ MIN/ @DET/ NE/ @CIN left.
PIT have @BAL/ MIA/ CIN/ @GB/ CLE left.

Its reasonable to guess that at least one of these teams will go 4-1 and finish up 9-7. PIT's toughest games after Thurs looks to be v CIN and @ GB. BAL have 3 tough looking games after Thursday @DET, v NE and @ CIN.

I know the NFL doesn't work that way, but on this basis, I want a Ravens win Thursday. But a 9-9 tie would do just fine.........
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ChosenOne3188


Joined: 09 May 2008
Posts: 587
Location: New Jersey
PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:35 am    Post subject: Re: Week 13 Playoff Picture and Projections Reply with quote

MrCincinnati wrote:
5 more crucial games left and the division still isnt sealed up yet. Its hard to believe that the Steelers are back in this thing but they are

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Seeds:
1.Broncos 9-2
2.Patriots 8-3
3.Colts 7-4
4.Bengals 7-4
5.Chiefs 9-2
6.Titans 5-6

In the Hunt:
7.Steelers 5-6
8.Ravens 5-6
9.Chargers 5-6
10.Jets 5-6
11.Dolphins 5-6
12.Raiders 4-7
13.Browns 4-7
14.Bills 4-7

The Bengals might be only 1 game behind the Pats, but I think there hopes of getting that bye week is over after the Pats already beat the Broncos. 3 seed is still in the picture, but the division needs to be sealed first.

Games of Importance:

Thanksgiving afternoon and night

1.Raiders @ Cowboys - Need Cowboys win (one more Raiders loss and they are out of the picture)

1.Steelers @ Ravens - Make your pick (you can make an arguement for either one. I'd rather see the Steelers win though, since the Bengals already beat them once while the Ravens could still cause a problem)

1st Slate

1.Titans @ Colts - Need Titans win (Next week against the Colts will be big)
2.Patriots @ Texans - Need Texans win (Maybe theres still a chance for the 2nd seed if the Pats lose this)
3.Dolphins @ Jets - Need Jets win (6th seed implications on the line here. Dolphins already beat the Bengals though, Jets didnt)
4.Jaguars @ Browns - Need Jaguars win (I just want to watch the Browns suffer at this point)

2nd Slate
1.Broncos @ Chiefs - Need Broncos win (Still need the Chiefs to stay in the 5th seed)
2.Falcons @ Bills - Need Falcons win (Bills are barely alive, but there schedule coming up is favorable for them)

Projected Playoff Standings

Mr.Cincinnati's Playoff Machine

1.Broncos 14-2
2.Patriots 13-3
3.Bengals 10-6
4.Colts 10-6
5.Chiefs 12-4
6.Steelers 8-8

7.Dolphins 8-8
8.Chargers 8-8
9.Jets 8-8
10.Titans 7-9
11.Bills 7-9
12.Ravens 6-10
13.Browns 5-11
14.Raiders 5-11
15.Jaguars 3-13
16.Texans 2-14


If the Dolphins beat the Steelers, Chargers, and split with the Jets, I dont understand how they dont get the tiebreaker
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 872
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:08 pm    Post subject: Re: Week 13 Playoff Picture and Projections Reply with quote

LondonBengal wrote:
MrCincinnati wrote:
Steelers @ Ravens - Make your pick (you can make an arguement for either one. I'd rather see the Steelers win though, since the Bengals already beat them once while the Ravens could still cause a problem)


BAL have PIT/ MIN/ @DET/ NE/ @CIN left.
PIT have @BAL/ MIA/ CIN/ @GB/ CLE left.

Its reasonable to guess that at least one of these teams will go 4-1 and finish up 9-7. PIT's toughest games after Thurs looks to be v CIN and @ GB. BAL have 3 tough looking games after Thursday @DET, v NE and @ CIN.

I know the NFL doesn't work that way, but on this basis, I want a Ravens win Thursday. But a 9-9 tie would do just fine.........


I just worry about the fact that week 17 could decide the division winner, which I want to avoid. Then again, It won't make me happy either if the Steelers somehow make the playoffs and play the Bengals. Bad things happen to the Bengals when they both play each other, when it matters.
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 872
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:11 pm    Post subject: Re: Week 13 Playoff Picture and Projections Reply with quote

ChosenOne3188 wrote:
MrCincinnati wrote:
5 more crucial games left and the division still isnt sealed up yet. Its hard to believe that the Steelers are back in this thing but they are

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

Seeds:
1.Broncos 9-2
2.Patriots 8-3
3.Colts 7-4
4.Bengals 7-4
5.Chiefs 9-2
6.Titans 5-6

In the Hunt:
7.Steelers 5-6
8.Ravens 5-6
9.Chargers 5-6
10.Jets 5-6
11.Dolphins 5-6
12.Raiders 4-7
13.Browns 4-7
14.Bills 4-7

The Bengals might be only 1 game behind the Pats, but I think there hopes of getting that bye week is over after the Pats already beat the Broncos. 3 seed is still in the picture, but the division needs to be sealed first.

Games of Importance:

Thanksgiving afternoon and night

1.Raiders @ Cowboys - Need Cowboys win (one more Raiders loss and they are out of the picture)

1.Steelers @ Ravens - Make your pick (you can make an arguement for either one. I'd rather see the Steelers win though, since the Bengals already beat them once while the Ravens could still cause a problem)

1st Slate

1.Titans @ Colts - Need Titans win (Next week against the Colts will be big)
2.Patriots @ Texans - Need Texans win (Maybe theres still a chance for the 2nd seed if the Pats lose this)
3.Dolphins @ Jets - Need Jets win (6th seed implications on the line here. Dolphins already beat the Bengals though, Jets didnt)
4.Jaguars @ Browns - Need Jaguars win (I just want to watch the Browns suffer at this point)

2nd Slate
1.Broncos @ Chiefs - Need Broncos win (Still need the Chiefs to stay in the 5th seed)
2.Falcons @ Bills - Need Falcons win (Bills are barely alive, but there schedule coming up is favorable for them)

Projected Playoff Standings

Mr.Cincinnati's Playoff Machine

1.Broncos 14-2
2.Patriots 13-3
3.Bengals 10-6
4.Colts 10-6
5.Chiefs 12-4
6.Steelers 8-8

7.Dolphins 8-8
8.Chargers 8-8
9.Jets 8-8
10.Titans 7-9
11.Bills 7-9
12.Ravens 6-10
13.Browns 5-11
14.Raiders 5-11
15.Jaguars 3-13
16.Texans 2-14


If the Dolphins beat the Steelers, Chargers, and split with the Jets, I dont understand how they dont get the tiebreaker


Take a closer look at the playoff machine and click on the Tiebreakers link. It will tell you why the Steelers get in

6th Seed - Pittsburgh
Wins tie break over NY Jets and San Diego based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Miami (NY Jets wins tie break over Miami based on best win percentage in division games).
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Hokie


Joined: 01 Apr 2012
Posts: 718
PostPosted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 3:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agreed with LB. All things considered, I view the Steelers as more of a threat to the division than the Ravens. Therefore, I would prefer a Ravens victory tonight.

The only other three games I'm concerned with are Titans/Colts (go Titans, obviously), Pats/Texans (sigh, this one probably isn't happening), and go Broncos (would prefer to play the Chiefs instead of the Broncos in a potential 4 vs 5 matchup).
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 872
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hokie wrote:
Agreed with LB. All things considered, I view the Steelers as more of a threat to the division than the Ravens. Therefore, I would prefer a Ravens victory tonight.

The only other three games I'm concerned with are Titans/Colts (go Titans, obviously), Pats/Texans (sigh, this one probably isn't happening), and go Broncos (would prefer to play the Chiefs instead of the Broncos in a potential 4 vs 5 matchup).


I really don't think the Steelers can threaten the division at all. They still started out 0-4 where no team has been able to make the playoffs after starting out that bad in NFL History. I'm more concern with the Fact that I don't want to play them in the playoffs. Same goes with the Ravens.

Ravens however can still threaten the division hopes in my mind.

Ravens are favorites tonight since its in Baltimore. I have a funny feeling the Steelers sweep them though. Either way IMO, its a lose lose situation IMO.
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LondonBengal


Joined: 07 Feb 2010
Posts: 3281
Location: London, England, UK
PostPosted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Happy thamksgiving all, from the uncultured side of the pond.
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LondonBengal


Joined: 07 Feb 2010
Posts: 3281
Location: London, England, UK
PostPosted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrCincinnati wrote:
I really don't think the Steelers can threaten the division at all.

We'll find out in about 4 hours. If they beat BAL tonight, they'll think they are right in this, and its possible we could go to their house in 3 weeks only 1 game in front of them.

The Steelers are confident and dangerous right now and very much have their eyes on that 6th seed spot.
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Hokie


Joined: 01 Apr 2012
Posts: 718
PostPosted: Sun Dec 01, 2013 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Houston currently giving New England all they can handle. Up 31-28 with around 10 minutes left.

A New England loss would help the Bengals out mightily...
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Hokie


Joined: 01 Apr 2012
Posts: 718
PostPosted: Sun Dec 01, 2013 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Houston chokes. Their receivers dropped a ton of easy passes in the 4th, their defense was garbage in the 2nd half, and Kubiak stupidly wasted a timeout that would have at least given Houston one final chance.

Two weeks in a row New England has pulled one out of their arse. This sucks.
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johndeere1707


Joined: 01 Apr 2006
Posts: 5986
PostPosted: Sun Dec 01, 2013 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like Indy has this one too
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futbudds


Joined: 20 May 2008
Posts: 1602
Location: Neptune Beach Fl
PostPosted: Sun Dec 01, 2013 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Note to self, never waste half a Sunday rooting for the Texans and titans.
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 872
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Sun Dec 01, 2013 10:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Next week is a big one right now. 3rd seed implications are on the line big time right now. Of course the real question is, would you feel comfortable playing against the Chiefs in the playoffs anyway as a 4th seed, or playing whomever wins the 6th seed which could very well be the Dolphins or Ravens whom both team have the Bengals number recently.

And honestly the talks of the 2nd seed would be nice, but I'd much rather play in the wildcard round AND win, rather than play in the division round on a bye AND lose. Thats just me though. Regardless, I still hope they get the Bye week but I wouldn't get my hopes up with the Patriots schedule.

Of course the Bengals still actually have to win the division first. The Ravens could win out, and as long as the Bengals lose a game before week 17, the division is still up for grabs.

Only way the Bengals miss the playoffs though is if they lose out which I cannot see happening at this point, unless for some unknown reason it does.
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theJ


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Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Posts: 18711
PostPosted: Mon Dec 02, 2013 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html

Don't know if you guys saw this posted in NFL Gen or not. Basically it generates % chances based off different scenarios to give you probabilities for certain seeds or playoff spots.

Basically the Bengals are almost assured of playoffs if they win 2/4 (and almost assured the division title too). 3/4 gives them a great chance at the #3 seed. Win 1/4 and they're probably still in, but slim chances at 0/4. Obviously those two scenarios aren't good, because they'll be limping in at that point.
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