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The Chiefs' Playoff Picture
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KC_Guy


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
Posts: 7261
Location: Brussels, Belgium
PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 10:09 am    Post subject: The Chiefs' Playoff Picture Reply with quote

It's the season's half time - so let me take a FIRST look at the Chiefs playoff picture. Of course we all hope the Chiefs will grab the division title and thus be automatically qualified - but that's quite a way to go.

The Wildcard situation on the other hand is shaping up pretty quickly:

In each of AFC North, East, and South the second ranked team has already lost 4 games.
In AFC West the third placed team (San Diego) has already lost 3 games.

Thus, if

Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 6-2 W/L record they have secured (at minimum) the #5 seed.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 5-3 W/L record they have secured (at minimum) the #5 seed as well.

This is a bit more complicated though: For the Chiefs to fall to San Diego, the Chargers need to win all NINE games left on their schedule (incl. beating both the Chiefs & the Broncos twice, which at the same time would give them the tiebreaker over the Chiefs and the division championship). As the Chiefs in this scenario only lose THREE games (two of them against SD), they obviously win (at minimum) ONE game against the Broncos - dropping the Broncos to FOUR losses (IND, 2x SD, KC).

As of now there are too many options if the Chiefs go 4-4 in their final 8 games but I'll have another look into this on a weekly basis.
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Last edited by KC_Guy on Mon Nov 04, 2013 4:32 am; edited 2 times in total
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jimmydee1


Joined: 20 Sep 2013
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Location: Missouri
PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good job pard. You keep sorting things out....I'll be at church lighting a candle and praying. lol Wink
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wishbone20


Joined: 21 Aug 2009
Posts: 350
Location: Springfield, Mo
PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

KC

Sep 8 @JAC W 28-2
Sep 15 DAL W 17-16
Sep 19 @PHI W 26-16
Sep 29 NYG W 31-7
Oct 6 @. TENW 26-17
Oct 13 OAK W 24-7
Oct 20 HOU W 17-16
Oct 27 CLE W 23-17
Nov 3 @BUF
Bye
Nov 17 @DEN
Nov 24 SDG
Dec 1 DEN
Dec 8 @WAS
Dec 15 @OAK
Dec 22 IND
Dec 29 @SDG

8-0
AFCW:1-0


Denver

Sep 5 BAL W 49-27
Sep 15 @NYG W 41-23
Sep 23 OAK W 37-21
Sep 29 PHI W 52-20
Oct 6 @DALW 51-48
Oct 13 JAC W 35-19
Oct 20 @IND L 39-33
Oct 27 WAS W 45-21
Bye
Nov 10 @SDG
Nov 17 KAN
Nov 24 @NWE
Dec 1 @KAN
Dec 8 TEN
Dec 12 SDG
Dec 22 @HOU
Dec 29 @OAK

7-1

Afc W:1-0

Most influential Division race in the League this year.
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KC_Guy


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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Location: Brussels, Belgium
PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some preliminary thoughts if the Chiefs go 4-4:

Arrow Tiebreaking procedures

Teams to consider (AFL teams with 4 or less "L" after week 8 - numbers in brackets: current "L", blue: three of these teams will win the Division or be out of "4L" Wild Card contention due to screwed up second half of season):

DEN (1), NE (2), CIN (2), IND (2), SD (3), NYJ (4), TEN (4), BAL (4), OAK (4), MIA (4)

Arrow Let's start with the easy one: Even if TEN wins all remaining games they'll lose on the 1st tiebreaker as the Chiefs beat them head-to-head.

Arrow NYJ play both MIA (2x) and BAL. Whoever loses ONE game is out. Worst case scenario for the Chiefs: NYJ loses them all - only NYJ out. Best case: NYJ and MIA split the series, NYJ wins over BAL: all out. In this case the Chiefs are guaranteed a SIXTH seed if they manage to finish second in AFC West.

Arrow If BAL is going to stick at 4 "L" they need to win all remaining games. That means winning over CIN twice, taking CIN to 4 "L" as well and winning the division (at minimum) on the first tiebreaker - thus BAL will not enter the "4 L" Wildcard scenario.

A look at the Division:

Arrow OAK needs to win them all. They then hold the 1st tiebreaker over SD, split games with DEN and KC. 2nd tiebreaker is way too early to predict. However - they'll be 4-2 intra-division.

Arrow SD may drop one game. Unless that's to a division rival they may go 5-1 intra division. If they get into a "4L" contention with OAK (meaning OAK won the 2nd game as well) the Raiders will win - as they will have swept the Chargers.

Arrow DEN: way to many options for intra- and inter-division game outcomes to make any prediction. If DEN and KC split the series and both end up with 4 "L" it may go down to the 5th or 6th tiebreaker.
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Update after Week 9:

No big changes. BAL and OAK fall out of "4L" considerations (dropped 5 games already), as do CIN and TEN (will win the division with 4L).

If:

Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 7-0 W/L record they win the division and have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 6-1 W/L record they win the division and have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 5-2 W/L record they have secured (at minimum) the #5 seed.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 4-3 W/L record they have secured (at minimum) the #5 seed as well.

Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 3-4 W/L record there are EIGHT teams left to consider in the Wildcard competition (AFL teams with 4 or less "L" after week 9 - numbers in brackets: current number of "L"):

DEN (1), NE (2), IND (2), CIN (3), SD (4), NYJ (4), TEN (4), MIA (4)

DEN: The obvious battle for the division, way to many options for intra- and inter-division game outcomes to make any prediction.

NE: Highly unlikely for NE to go 12-4 and NOT win the division. Would go down to probably the 5th or 6th tiebreaker against MIA or NYJ. A whole bunch of pieces need to go against the team to make that happen, but theoretically there is a chance. W/L percentage in the conference would be the first tiebreaker (probably indecisive), then W/L percentage in common games (CLE, BUF, DEN, HOU - KC: 3-0, NE: 1-0 out of five games). After that Strength of Victory would apply.

IND: The only scenario IND enters the "4L" sweepstakes is if TEN wins all remaining games (incl. both games against the Colts) and IND wins all games but those two against TEN. In that case the head-to-head tiebreaker (week 16) will apply.

CIN: If CIN ends up with 4 "L" they win the division and don't become a factor in the Wildcard competition.

SD: After their loss to WAS they need to win them all to enter the race. If they do they swept both KC and DEN and hold the first tiebreaker over both teams.

NYJ/MIA: They play each other twice. Only one of the two can enter the "4L" competition - if that team goes unbeaten from now on.

TEN: If TEN goes "4L" they need to win all remaining games. In that case they'll take the division over IND (2-0 head-to-head) and be out of the Wildcard competition.

Arrow Tiebreaking procedures
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Last edited by KC_Guy on Fri Nov 08, 2013 3:33 am; edited 3 times in total
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onejayhawk


Joined: 14 Apr 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 7:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

At this point, the Chiefs are near lock for some playoff berth. Splitting with both SD and Denver possibly win the division.

Winning over Denver in game 11 would be a new franchise record for best start.

J
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KC_Guy


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
Posts: 7261
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Update after Week 10:

Picture is getting clearer by the day. There are only two divisions left in the AFC where the second team has less than 5 L (AFC West and AFC East).

If:

Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 7-0 W/L record they win the division and have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 6-1 W/L record they win the division and have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 5-2 W/L record they have secured (at minimum) the #5 seed.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 4-3 W/L record they have secured (at minimum) the #5 seed as well.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 3-4 W/L record they have secured (at minimum) the #6 seed dependent on tiebreaker outcome with the AFC East team.

DEN: The obvious battle for the division, way to many options for intra- and inter-division game outcomes to make any prediction.

NE: Highly unlikely for NE to go 12-4 and NOT win the division. Would go down to probably the 5th or 6th tiebreaker against NYJ. A whole bunch of pieces need to go against the team to make that happen, but theoretically there is a chance.
W/L percentage in the conference would be the first tiebreaker (both KC and NE are 3-0 in non Conference games so far, so this depends on last non-Conference game: KC WAS, NE CAR), then W/L percentage in common games (CLE, BUF, DEN, HOU - KC: 3-0, NE: 1-0 out of five games). After that Strength of Victory would apply.

NYJ: Will enter the competition only if they go unbeaten from now on.

IND: If IND ends up with 4 "L" they win the division and don't become a factor in the Wildcard competition

CIN: If CIN ends up with 4 "L" they win the division and don't become a factor in the Wildcard competition.

Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 2-5 W/L record they have screwed up, but nevertheless have a good chance to grab a Wildcard ticket. Most considerations I presented last week for a remaining 3-4 record apply. Ill have a closer look into this next week.

Arrow Official seeding based on current standings
Arrow Tiebreaking procedures
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Update after Week 11:

The loss against Denver definitely was a setback, especially as far as the #1 seed is concerned. Nevertheless, the overall picture is still pretty good. There is only one division (other than AFC W) left in the AFC where the second team has less than 6 L (AFC East).

If:

Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 6-0 W/L record (15-1 total) they win the division and have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 5-1 W/L record (14-2 total) they have secured (at minimum) the #5 seed. Anything else depends on who they lose against and how Denver does. If the Chiefs lose against Denver in week 13 Denver holds the first tiebreaker (head-to-head), in that case Denver needs to lose against TWO other teams to surrender the #1 seed. If the Chiefs win it comes down to the 2nd tiebreaker: W/L in the division. So the Chiefs better not lose to OAK or SD.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 4-2 W/L record (13-3 total) they have secured (at minimum) the #5 seed.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 3-3 W/L record (12-4 total) they have secured (at minimum) the #5 seed as well.
Arrow the Chiefs from now on manage a 2-4 W/L record (11-5 total) they have secured (at minimum) the #6 seed. Whether they go #5 is dependent on tiebreaker outcome with the AFC East team. MIA and NYJ play each other in weeks 13 and 17. So only one of those teams may enter the Wildcard picture at 11-5, and only if it wins ALL remaining games. NE may also enter the picture, however, either MIA or NYJ must win ALL remaining games and NE EXACTLY lose TWO for that to happen.
W/L percentage in the conference would be the first tiebreaker (Chiefs would lose to MIA, best case tie with NE and NYJ), then W/L percentage in common games (KC win over NYJ, NE still undecided). After that Strength of Victory would apply. Overall I'm pretty confident that both NYJ and MIA drop at least one of their remaining games, making all these considerations obsolete.

AFC North and South will be won with an 11-5 final score, thus neither IND nor CIN need to be considered here.

Analyzing a 10-6 outcome is still too complex as there are ten teams left to consider. However, two of them will drop out of the picture this week as they play other teams standing at 6L: TEN@OAK, PIT@CLE. May be Ill have a look into this situation next week.

More information:
Arrow Official seeding based on current standings
Arrow Tiebreaking procedures
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Mikek163


Joined: 24 Nov 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Basically all we need to do is win 2 more games and we are in. The best the Jets, Miami etc can do is 11-5, and a team that has split their first 10 games isn't likely to just win out the rest. Teams like Baltimore and Pitt scare me a little more, but they are already 10-6 at BEST. 9-7 will most likely end up being the 2nd wild card IMO.
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jimmydee1


Joined: 20 Sep 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good job, Pard....What the heck...lets go ahead and win 3 more games. lol Can't wait for the Donkeys to come to our house, but let's get a good warm up with the Bolts first. I bet good money we see MANY blitzes next time, with the crowd noise and all. Wink
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chiefs82


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whos the most favorable and least favorable 1st round match ups for the Chiefs?
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Rearviewmirror


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

chiefs82 wrote:
Whos the most favorable and least favorable 1st round match ups for the Chiefs?


1. the Bye

2. Andy Dalton

3. Luck/Brady
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KC_Guy


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 5:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Next iteration - in a two-pronged approach today.

Section ONE: The Race for the Division Championship.

The Unrealistic Option: The Chiefs lose next week.

DEN is 10-2 and holds the first tiebreaker (head-to-head). KC is 9-3. In order to still win the division the Chiefs need to win on overall W/L ratio. Read: KC must win TWO more of the remaining games than the Broncos will.

The Only Acceptable Option: The Chiefs win next week.

KC is 10-2, DEN is 9-3. Any team may win on the overall W/L ratio. To enter the tiebreaking procedures DEN needs to win one more of the remaining games than KC.

Arrow First tiebreaker is a wash.
Arrow The second tiebreaker (games within the division)
Arrow Third tiebreaker would be games within the Conference.

If (after a KC win over DEN) the teams tie at

13-3: DEN wins on the second tiebreaker
12-4: DEN wins on the second tiebreaker UNLESS
- DEN loses to either SD or OAK and
- KC loses to WAS and IND, in which case KC wins on the third tiebreaker
11-5: DEN wins on the second tiebreaker UNLESS
- DEN loses to both SD and OAK and
- KC loses to WAS, IND and either SD or OAK, in which case KC wins on the third tiebreaker
10-6: DEN wins on the second tiebreaker

Of note: From 12-4 NE will enter the race for the #1 overall seed as well.

Bottom line: The Chiefs need to tighten up their jockstraps and go 5-0 in the remaining games if they want to grab the #1 seed.

I'll discuss the Wildcard picture in a separate post later today or tomorrow
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Last edited by KC_Guy on Wed Nov 27, 2013 7:31 am; edited 1 time in total
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jimmydee1


Joined: 20 Sep 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keep crankin KC_Guy....some good stuff there that nobody else will take the time to grind out. Wink
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 7:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Section TWO: The Wildcard Situation.

Two losses in a row that shakes up things quite a bit. I discussed the competition for the division title in my previous post, so this one will only address the Wildcard race, assuming Denver wins the division.

Arrow If the Chiefs from now on manage a 5-0 W/L record (14-2 total) they win the division and have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Arrow As the second ranked teams in AFC E, AFC N, and AFC S as well as the third ranked team in AFC W already have lost 6 games the Chiefs will have the #5 seed if they end the regular season at 11-5 or better. Thus, even if the Chiefs lose 3 of their final 5 games, they will have the #5 seed.
Arrow If the Chiefs from now on manage a 1-4 W/L record (10-6 total) they screwed up. Nevertheless: any team trying to challenge the Chiefs will have to win all remaining games.
    A more detailed discussion:
    AFC West: SD will enter the picture here if they win all remaining games. In that case they will hold the 1st tiebreaker over KC and relegate the Chiefs to (best case) the #6 seed.
    AFC South: TEN will have to win all games to end at 10-6 but even then lose to KC on the first tiebreaker. However, there is a (very) small chance TEN wins the AFC South at 10-6 while IND ends up at 10-6 as well. In that case the decision between KC and IND will be made in the week 16 head-to-head game.
    AFC East: MIA and NYJ need to win all remaining games as well, however, as they play each other in weeks 13 & 17 only one of them can enter the competition. If that happens both teams would probably win over KC on the third tiebreaker (games within conference). With regard to NE theres a very small chance they end at 10-6 and not win the division. If so they will probably hold the third tiebreaker over KC as well.
    AFC North: Similar situation to the AFC East. BAL and PIT face one another this weekend, the loser of that game will be out of consideration here (update: that's PIT). The third tiebreaker favors both teams as well. CIN may enter as well if they manage to lose the division to BAL on a 10-6 result.

Bottom line: If the Chiefs manage to WIN TWO more games they are in the playoffs as the 5th seed. But even if the Chiefs manage to LOSE FOUR more games they are virtually guaranteed a wildcard berth unless something absolutely weird happens over the next 5 weeks (like TWO of the teams currently standing at 5-6 simultaneously winning ALL remaining games). Whether the Chiefs will get the 5th or 6th seed will be decided later on this may go down even beyond the third tiebreaker.

If the Chiefs lose all remaining games they are not worthy of a playoff berth (even though they very likely will make the playoffs nevertheless).
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