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Did I dream Woz had a great statistical analysis?
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Doc Draper


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:55 pm    Post subject: Did I dream Woz had a great statistical analysis? Reply with quote

I can't find that thread or was it the scotch?
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure what you are looking for.

Are you looking for a contract break down, or what?
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Doc Draper


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks. I found it under draft thread. A powerful analysis by Woz

From Woz:
Some things to chew on while you're looking at free agency and the draft. With our current roster, we are (ranks are before MNF ended (*)):

OFFENSIVE STATS

Overall
58 of 126 3rd downs converted (46%, 4th)
3 of 8 4th downs converted (38%, 22nd-tied)
59 penalties (15th-tied), 511 yards (17th), 8.66 yards/penalty (15th)
Time of possession 31:48 (8th)
14 fumbles (22nd-tied), 5 lost (9th-tied)
Turnover ratio of 0 (15th-tied)

Passing
210 of 346 (60.7% - 16th best)
2333 yards (7.2 YPC - 14th-tied)
12 TDs (19th-tied)
11 INTs (24th-tied)
128 1st downs (37.0% - 6th)
24 pass plays of 20+ yards or longer (26th-tied)
2 pass plays of 40+ yards or longer (31st)
18 sacks allowed (6th)
81.1 passer rating (21st)

Rushing
269 attempts for 1361 yards (5.1 YPC - 1st-tied)
12 TDs (3rd)
70 1st downs (26.0% - 3rd)
12 rush plays of 20+ yards or longer (3rd)
1 rush play of 40+ yards or longer (8th-tied)


Looking at all this we have a good, but not great offense. It's one of the best in terms of rushing, and while it's not spectacular through the air, it's decent.


DEFENSIVE STATS
Overall
40 of 106 3rd downs converted against (38% - 13th)
7 of 8 4th downs converted against (88% - 31st)
50 penalties (6th-tied), 438 yards (8th), 8.76 yards/penalty (19th)
Time of Possession 28:52 (9th)
8 fumbles forced (29th-tied), 6 recovered (15th-tied)

Passing
210 of 316 (66.5% - 29th)
2473 yards allowed (8.3 YPC - 30th)
19 passing TDs allowed (28th-tied)
10 INTs (18th-tied)
133 passing 1st downs allowed (42.1% - 32nd (no one else is above 40%))
37 pass plays of 20+ yards allowed (28th)
3 pass plays of 40+ yards allowed (4th-tied)
22 sacks (20th)
Opponent passer rating 98.8 (27th)

Rushing
237 attempts for 1024 yards (4.3 YPC - 22nd-tied)
12 rushing TDs allowed (29th-tied)
62 rushing 1st downs allowed (26.2% - 30th)
5 rushing plays of 20+ yards (13th-tied)
1 rushing play of 40+ yards (15th-tied)


That, folks, is a defense that stinks.

Let's consider this: 237 rushing attempts + 316 pass attempts is 533 plays (ignoring penalties). 62 rushing 1st downs + 133 passing 1st downs is 195 first downs. This means, that on plays that don't involve penalties, our opponents have gotten a first down 35.26% of the time. Yes, more than one out of every three plays has netted opposing teams a fresh set of downs.

That's ridiculous.

Now, on the face of it, our atrocious passing stats say that we should look to a corner and free safety.

That would be a mistake.

If our passing defense was bad but our run defense was good, that might be the right play. No, they're both bad. That means the problem is up front.

We know that Fletcher is going to retire (well, we don't but it is a pretty safe bet). We know that we're not getting any real pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So we need to focus on the front seven. Pressure is an absolute must. I would say look for a 3-4 nose but, A) Cofield has been decent, and B) the market for NTs in both free agency and the draft looks pretty tapped out. So, personally, I would focus on the ends. Yes, Carriker might come back, but he's been gone for so long that he is a massive question mark. Bowen and Jenkins are alright but can be replaced. Inside linebacker is probably the biggest weakness.

If you're looking for a 2nd or 3rd wideout, unless the value is really great, that's probably not the right call. Free agency is probably where we would go. That said, the more I think about it, the more I think we don't go after a big name wide receiver. Think about it: we have our #1 in Garcon. Why do we need another big name? Also, would they want to come here to try and become the #1? I could see possibly taking a chance on Maclin because of the upside in the reclamation project. Britt is absolutely laughable as an option. The guy is a complete chucklehead; he makes Fred Davis look like Mother Teresa.

If I thought this front office would draft an offensive linemen highly, I would make that my priority in any predictions. However, I just don't see it happening. We're going to be built from pieces and parts. The funny thing is that if we stuck to our strengths (the run game), this would be okay. The problem is we're going pass happy at all the wrong times.

I'm admittedly not the best in terms of picking out collegiate talent; I'll leave that to others. However, if I knew talent, I think I would focus on the defense first and foremost. Now, if I thought a guy would drop to me because of ... whatever reason, then sure, perhaps I would take a wide receiver or a stud right tackle. I just don't see that as being the best value pick (for the WR) or likely to happen (for the RT).
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Did I dream Woz had a great statistical analysis? Reply with quote

Doc Draper wrote:
I can't find that thread or was it the scotch?
I like a good Macallans 15 myself. You?
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Thaiphoon


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doc - do us a favor and link back to that thread please in your post.
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Thaiphoon


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Per Woz...

Quote:
If our passing defense was bad but our run defense was good, that might be the right play. No, they're both bad. That means the problem is up front.


This is what Woz and I (and some others) have been saying for a LONG time now. Before this last draft where we went after Thomas and Rambo we were saying to bolster the front 7. We still have the same problem and we still haven't addressed it.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thaiphoon wrote:
Per Woz...

Quote:
If our passing defense was bad but our run defense was good, that might be the right play. No, they're both bad. That means the problem is up front.


This is what Woz and I (and some others) have been saying for a LONG time now. Before this last draft where we went after Thomas and Rambo we were saying to bolster the front 7. We still have the same problem and we still haven't addressed it.
We also didn't think Carriker would be out for the season.

We did address the front 7. We got Orakpo back, we thought we were getting a healthy Carriker back (sadly he couldn't make it), we signed Darryl Tapp and Drafted Brandon Jenkins (a second round talent) at OLB who fell to round 5 because of a foot injury in his senior year.

If we hadn't drafted Thomas (who sadly got hurt, but we couldn't predict it) Rambo, who's our safeties?

Meriweather, Doughty, Gumbs and Pugh

And you're ok with that?
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Days until: Today; @ Texans 7. Adopt-a-Redskin: Brian Orakpo
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Thaiphoon


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Thaiphoon wrote:
Per Woz...

Quote:
If our passing defense was bad but our run defense was good, that might be the right play. No, they're both bad. That means the problem is up front.


This is what Woz and I (and some others) have been saying for a LONG time now. Before this last draft where we went after Thomas and Rambo we were saying to bolster the front 7. We still have the same problem and we still haven't addressed it.
We also didn't think Carriker would be out for the season.

We did address the front 7. We got Orakpo back, we thought we were getting a healthy Carriker back (sadly he couldn't make it), we signed Darryl Tapp and Drafted Brandon Jenkins (a second round talent) at OLB who fell to round 5 because of a foot injury in his senior year.

If we hadn't drafted Thomas (who sadly got hurt, but we couldn't predict it) Rambo, who's our safeties?

Meriweather, Doughty, Gumbs and Pugh

And you're ok with that?


Again - we need DL help. We kinda addressed the LB. But too often we rush only 3 players or we add in Rak or Kerrigan and because of the weak push from the DL they simply double the LB.

I'll also state again, if I had a secondary of:

Darrell Green
Deion Sanders
Ronnie Lott
Ed Reed

But a front 7 mostly made up of dregs...

My pass defense is gonna suck.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thaiphoon wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Thaiphoon wrote:
Per Woz...

Quote:
If our passing defense was bad but our run defense was good, that might be the right play. No, they're both bad. That means the problem is up front.


This is what Woz and I (and some others) have been saying for a LONG time now. Before this last draft where we went after Thomas and Rambo we were saying to bolster the front 7. We still have the same problem and we still haven't addressed it.
We also didn't think Carriker would be out for the season.

We did address the front 7. We got Orakpo back, we thought we were getting a healthy Carriker back (sadly he couldn't make it), we signed Darryl Tapp and Drafted Brandon Jenkins (a second round talent) at OLB who fell to round 5 because of a foot injury in his senior year.

If we hadn't drafted Thomas (who sadly got hurt, but we couldn't predict it) Rambo, who's our safeties?

Meriweather, Doughty, Gumbs and Pugh

And you're ok with that?


Again - we need DL help. We kinda addressed the LB. But too often we rush only 3 players or we add in Rak or Kerrigan and because of the weak push from the DL they simply double the LB.

I'll also state again, if I had a secondary of:

Darrell Green
Deion Sanders
Ronnie Lott
Ed Reed

But a front 7 mostly made up of dregs...

My pass defense is gonna suck.
We need help at every level of our defense Thai, except at NT and OLB.

We have an adequate front 7. Especially if we had gotten Carriker back - they couldn't have predicted in March/April that he wasn't going to be ready in September.

We have a lousy secondary. You can't always get pressure on the Qb in every pass play, and right now, that's what I see most posters expect, because they know our secondary is so poor (especially the safety position) that the only way to stop a passing attack is to get a sack on every play. Even of we had 7 pro bowlers on our front 7, we wouldn't get a sack on every play.

In last years draft, i called and called for an ILB to be taken at some point to develop. It wasn't, we're paying for that decision.

DE needs to be addressed, but if that's all we do an get a new ILB to replace Fletcher - I guarantee you we'll still have one of the worst pass defenses in the entire nfl.
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Days until: Today; @ Texans 7. Adopt-a-Redskin: Brian Orakpo
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MKnight82


Joined: 04 Mar 2009
Posts: 6771
PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Thaiphoon wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
Thaiphoon wrote:
Per Woz...

Quote:
If our passing defense was bad but our run defense was good, that might be the right play. No, they're both bad. That means the problem is up front.


This is what Woz and I (and some others) have been saying for a LONG time now. Before this last draft where we went after Thomas and Rambo we were saying to bolster the front 7. We still have the same problem and we still haven't addressed it.
We also didn't think Carriker would be out for the season.

We did address the front 7. We got Orakpo back, we thought we were getting a healthy Carriker back (sadly he couldn't make it), we signed Darryl Tapp and Drafted Brandon Jenkins (a second round talent) at OLB who fell to round 5 because of a foot injury in his senior year.

If we hadn't drafted Thomas (who sadly got hurt, but we couldn't predict it) Rambo, who's our safeties?

Meriweather, Doughty, Gumbs and Pugh

And you're ok with that?


Again - we need DL help. We kinda addressed the LB. But too often we rush only 3 players or we add in Rak or Kerrigan and because of the weak push from the DL they simply double the LB.

I'll also state again, if I had a secondary of:

Darrell Green
Deion Sanders
Ronnie Lott
Ed Reed

But a front 7 mostly made up of dregs...

My pass defense is gonna suck.
We need help at every level of our defense Thai, except at NT and OLB.

We have an adequate front 7. Especially if we had gotten Carriker back - they couldn't have predicted in March/April that he wasn't going to be ready in September.

We have a lousy secondary. You can't always get pressure on the Qb in every pass play, and right now, that's what I see most posters expect, because they know our secondary is so poor (especially the safety position) that the only way to stop a passing attack is to get a sack on every play. Even of we had 7 pro bowlers on our front 7, we wouldn't get a sack on every play.

In last years draft, i called and called for an ILB to be taken at some point to develop. It wasn't, we're paying for that decision.

DE needs to be addressed, but if that's all we do an get a new ILB to replace Fletcher - I guarantee you we'll still have one of the worst pass defenses in the entire nfl.
You have it backwards. We have an adequate secondary and a lousy front 7.
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Doc Draper


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 5:40 pm    Post subject: Re: Did I dream Woz had a great statistical analysis? Reply with quote

MKnight82 wrote:
Doc Draper wrote:
I can't find that thread or was it the scotch?
I like a good Macallans 15 myself. You?


its the best!!! especially on a cold night Smile
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Front 7 isn't as bad as the back 4 and it isn't even close.

Bowen = Average
Cofield = Great
Jenkins = average

Orakpo = above average
Fletcher = average to below average in his old age but getting replaced
Riley = above average vs run, average vs pass
Kerrigan = above average

Hall = above average
Amerson = average to below average
Wilson = below average
Biggers = Below average

Meriweather = average
Doughty/Rambo = doughty is above average against the run but poor vs the pass. Rambo is average against the pass and below average agains the run.

If we don't find a better nickel CB, and a true starting FS and move Meriweather back to his better position of SS - we're screwed as a defense.

Upgrading Fletcher will happen next March and April. We should get a new starter at LDE and better depth in the draft to develop at DE from the mid to late rounds. That is going to take our front 7 from average to good

We focus on a better nickel CB and a really good or great FS and our secondary goes from below average to good.

Then, we have a top 15, possibly top 10 D.
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Last edited by turtle28 on Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
The Front 7 isn't as bad as the back 40 and it isn't even close.

Bowen = Average
Cofield = Great
Jenkins = average

Orakpo = above average
Fletcher = average to below average in his old age
Riley = average
Kerrigan = above average

Hall = above average
Amerson = average to below average
Wilson = below average
Biggers = Below average

Meriweather = average
Doughty/Rambo = doughty is above average agains the run but poor vs the pass. Rambo is average against the pass and below average agains the run.

If we don't find a better nickel CB, and a true starting FS and move Meriweather back to his better position of SS - we're screwed as a defense.

Upgrading Fletcher, getting one new starter at DE and better depth in the draft to develop at DE in the mid to late rounds is going to make our front 7 from average to good

We focus on a better nickel CB and a really good or great FS and our secondary goes from below average to good.

Then, we have a top 15, possibly top 10 D.
Nope. Should be more like this:

Bowen - Poor
Cofield - Above average
Jenkins - Below average

Orakpo - Average
Fletcher - Poor
Riley - Average
Kerrigan - Above average

Hall - Above average
Amerson - Average
Rambo - Below average
Meriweather - Average
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MKnight82 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
The Front 7 isn't as bad as the back 40 and it isn't even close.

Bowen = Average
Cofield = Great
Jenkins = average

Orakpo = above average
Fletcher = average to below average in his old age
Riley = average
Kerrigan = above average

Hall = above average
Amerson = average to below average
Wilson = below average
Biggers = Below average

Meriweather = average
Doughty/Rambo = doughty is above average agains the run but poor vs the pass. Rambo is average against the pass and below average agains the run.

If we don't find a better nickel CB, and a true starting FS and move Meriweather back to his better position of SS - we're screwed as a defense.

Upgrading Fletcher, getting one new starter at DE and better depth in the draft to develop at DE in the mid to late rounds is going to make our front 7 from average to good

We focus on a better nickel CB and a really good or great FS and our secondary goes from below average to good.

Then, we have a top 15, possibly top 10 D.
Nope. Should be more like this:

Bowen - Poor
Cofield - Above average
Jenkins - Below average

Orakpo - Average
Fletcher - Poor
Riley - Average
Kerrigan - Above average

Hall - Above average
Amerson - Average
Rambo - Below average
Meriweather - Average
well agree to disagree on the evaluations of a few players. We're not going to agree on Bowen and Fletcher, I do not see them as "poor" players - never will.

Beyond that though. The upgrades need to come at LDE, and it will. The upgrade does need to come at RILB and it will when Fletch Retires. The team needs a new Nickel CB and move on from Josh Wilson. Hopefully, Richard Crawford comes back healthy enough to be our #4 or 5 and Chase Minifield can step up and take the other last position.

We need a starting FS - we don't have one! Rambo is a few years away - if he ever gets there - from being a reliable starter in the NFL. Not having a reliable FS with great range who can be a ballhawk and be an enforcer who can deliver big hits to wrs and TEs who come around him this is the defenses biggest problem and has been since November 2007.
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
The Front 7 isn't as bad as the back 40 and it isn't even close.

Bowen = Average
Cofield = Great
Jenkins = average

Orakpo = above average
Fletcher = average to below average in his old age
Riley = average
Kerrigan = above average

Hall = above average
Amerson = average to below average
Wilson = below average
Biggers = Below average

Meriweather = average
Doughty/Rambo = doughty is above average agains the run but poor vs the pass. Rambo is average against the pass and below average agains the run.

If we don't find a better nickel CB, and a true starting FS and move Meriweather back to his better position of SS - we're screwed as a defense.

Upgrading Fletcher, getting one new starter at DE and better depth in the draft to develop at DE in the mid to late rounds is going to make our front 7 from average to good

We focus on a better nickel CB and a really good or great FS and our secondary goes from below average to good.

Then, we have a top 15, possibly top 10 D.
Nope. Should be more like this:

Bowen - Poor
Cofield - Above average
Jenkins - Below average

Orakpo - Average
Fletcher - Poor
Riley - Average
Kerrigan - Above average

Hall - Above average
Amerson - Average
Rambo - Below average
Meriweather - Average
well agree to disagree on the evaluations of a few players. We're not going to agree on Bowen and Fletcher, I do not see them as "poor" players - never will.

Beyond that though. The upgrades need to come at LDE, and it will. The upgrade does need to come at RILB and it will when Fletch Retires. The team needs a new Nickel CB and move on from Josh Wilson. Hopefully, Richard Crawford comes back healthy enough to be our #4 or 5 and Chase Minifield can step up and take the other last position.

We need a starting FS - we don't have one! Rambo is a few years away - if he ever gets there - from being a reliable starter in the NFL. Not having a reliable FS with great range who can be a ballhawk and be an enforcer who can deliver big hits to wrs and TEs who come around him this is the defenses biggest problem and has been since November 2007.
Interior pass rush from a DE, or lack thereof is the biggest problem. Pass rush is more important than any form of coverage.
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