Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

The Jaguars and the 'rebuild' by the 49ers

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Jacksonville Jaguars
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
JagsFanInNY


Joined: 25 Feb 2013
Posts: 1389
Location: Brooklyn, NY
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:28 pm    Post subject: The Jaguars and the 'rebuild' by the 49ers Reply with quote

Over the weekend (prior to the win yesterday), I was having a conversation with my brother about the Jaguars and just how bad they currently are and have been in recent memory. As a fan of the 49ers, he is not too far removed from years of poor QB play and losing records. Even prior to this conversation, looking at San Francisco and its transformation, I really understand just what went wrong with the Jaguars’’ rebuild under Gene Smith (namely the total inability to ‘hit’ on those first round picks and put a young group of impact players around the roster). I think this post I found in a different thread really sums things up nicely

iPwn wrote:
Going into next season...

QB - Need (starter + backup)
RB - Need (Starter, maybe backups)
WR - Need (Maybe a player who can play outside)
TE - Need (a pure pass catching starter type)
LT - No need (Provided we retain RFA Bradfield as a backup)
LG - Need (Starter + depth)
C - Need (Starter or backup, depending on team's view of Brewster)
RG - Need (Starter or backup, depending on Nwaneri's play throughout the year)
RT - Need (Backup only, provided Pasztor continues to play well and is retained)


DE/LEO - Need (Starter + depth)
NT/1-tech - Need (Starter + depth)
UT/3-tech - Need (depth only, provided Marks is retained)
DE/5-tech - Need (starter, Alualu can play as a backup)
LOLB - Probably not a need
MLB - Probably not a pressing need
ROLB - Need (starter, Hayes can be a backup)
CB - Need (1 starter, as I view Blackmon as a long term nickel guy + depth)
FS - Need (depth)
SS - Need (depth)

Crying or Very sad


There are literally needs everywhere, notably at every spot Gene took a first round pick (excluding LT which is a result of Caldwell’s first pick being a LT). So, while I am not envisioning a rebuild exactly mimicking San Francisco’s, following this lengthy discussion I had with my brother, I think there are some specific things that might make sense for the Jaguars to do.

1)Trade an early second round pick for a future first round pick:

In 2009, the 49ers, needing a variety of things could have grabbed a phenomenal prospect (Everette Brown) in the second round of the draft with pick #43. Instead, they decided to move the pick (along with a 4th rounder which ended up being Mike Goodson) to Carolina, and in turn got a 2010 first rounder. That pick turned into Mike Iupati, who along with Anthony Davis became two major impact players for the 49ers, and 40% of what might be the best OL in the NFL.

I was pushing last year for the Jaguars to do this, and I will do so again. For some reason, a lot of teams improperly value future first round selections. While the exorbitant rookie deals of the old CBA was definitely part of the reason, I think an improper valuation is still in existence, and the Jaguars should be able to capitalize, especially given what might turn out to be a more ‘top heavy’ QB class than last year. With a pair of first round picks, 2015 could be a huge draft in the rebuilding of this team.

2)Build up this O-Line as early as possible:

As pointed out above, the Niners OL is pretty special. The reason for this is how early they rebuilt it. In terms of draft picks used, the 2010 first rounders are playing LG and RT their LT is also a first rounder. While it happens to be their RG is undrafted and their C is a 5th rounder, the majority of their OL are first round picks.

While I probably would not advocate ‘early’ as in only first rounder, I think perhaps looking to grab 2nd and 3rd (over the next two drafts, since I advocate getting rid of this year’s 2nd in a trade for a 2015 1st) round offensive linemen could make a load of sense for this team. After all, football is a game that for the most part is won in the trenches, and the Jaguars’ current situation is just all too bright when it comes to the O-Line.

3)Grab another 1st round pick by trading a future 1st round pick:

Back in 2007, the Niners gave up their 2008 1st, which ended up being Jerrod Mayo for the Patriots, to get another 2007 1st. That pick became Joe Staley who joined Patrick Willis as the 1st round class for the 49ers that year.

While above I made future 1st rounders seem so great, the fact is that they are often times less valuable than current 1st round picks. Essentially, the way I see things, it is usually the case that current 1st > future 1st > current 2nd, and so if the opportunity presented itself, pull the trigger to grab a current 1st in exchange for a future 1st.

The Jaguars want to rebuild and probably as quickly as possible. Multiple 1st round picks is as good a way as I can think of to rebuild through the draft. So to, I would rather have a dollar today than a dollar tomorrow, barring something like #31 this year or #2 next year, give me my 1st round pick now.

So taking these things into consideration, here is an attempt to implement all 3 ideas into the next 2 drafts.

-2014 2nd and 4th for 2015 1
-2015 1 and 2014 6 for 2014 1
2014
1(top 5): QB
1(bottom 10): LEO
2: TRADE for 2015 1st
3: OG
4: RB
4: TRADE for 2015 1st
5: C
5: OLB
5: CB
6: TRADE for 2014 1st
7: LEO

2015
1:3T/5T
2: OT
3: TE
4: OLB
5: 1T
6: WR
7: OG
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
iPwn


Moderator
Joined: 10 Oct 2009
Posts: 45562
Location: Warbortles Nation
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:50 pm    Post subject: Re: The Jaguars and the 'rebuild' by the 49ers Reply with quote

JagsFanInNY wrote:
For some reason, a lot of teams improperly value future first round selections.
It's proper valuation. It's a principle of economics called time value of money. It's why taking the lump sum (which is always lesser) when you win the lottery is more valuable and why people actually pay ridiculous prices for popcorn at the movies. Having something now is worth more than having it a year later. You can usually trade a 2nd in one year for a 1st in the following year straight up. Same for every other round.



As for the actual plan, I'm not sure how keen I am on the idea.

Essentially we're moving from 33-ish to 25-ish at the cost of a 4th rounder that could be another starter. Then we're likely dropping in the first round next year and losing a 6th rounder.
_________________

- Best since day one -
The road to success is always under construction - Gus Bradley
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Vino


Joined: 27 Oct 2013
Posts: 1838
Location: Jacksonville, FL
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we had two first round picks this year, then I'd use the top 5 pick to draft the LEO (Clowney) and then the second to draft QB rather than the other way around. This isn't a particularly deep DE draft but there is one all-time talent in it while with the exception of Bridgewater the rest of QBs are pretty much interchangeable in the first round and they all have potential to be good to great talents in the NFL. Doesn't make sense to give up a talent like Clowney for any QB in this draft not named Bridgewater.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
JagsFanInNY


Joined: 25 Feb 2013
Posts: 1389
Location: Brooklyn, NY
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:29 pm    Post subject: Re: The Jaguars and the 'rebuild' by the 49ers Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
JagsFanInNY wrote:
For some reason, a lot of teams improperly value future first round selections.
It's proper valuation. It's a principle of economics called time value of money. It's why taking the lump sum (which is always lesser) when you win the lottery is more valuable and why people actually pay ridiculous prices for popcorn at the movies. Having something now is worth more than having it a year later. You can usually trade a 2nd in one year for a 1st in the following year straight up. Same for every other round.



As for the actual plan, I'm not sure how keen I am on the idea.

Essentially we're moving from 33-ish to 25-ish at the cost of a 4th rounder that could be another starter. Then we're likely dropping in the first round next year and losing a 6th rounder.


No, it is not time value of money. TVM will not tell you to take $1.50 now instead of $4.00 next year, when best case scenario turns that 1.50 into $3.00. When you consider what can be had at 20 something vs. 30 something, the fact of the matter is that more often that not the difference is substantial enough that one year of NFL experience will be negligible when compared to the difference in the actual talent level.

As for the assumption that a 4th rounder is going to start, sure he likely could on this team. However, that doesn't say much. To suggest he could likely be a core starter who would greatly help this rebuild, well that is just wrong. In the grand scheme of things, the benefit of an extra 1st will very probably exceed that of a high 2nd and a 4th.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
iPwn


Moderator
Joined: 10 Oct 2009
Posts: 45562
Location: Warbortles Nation
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you don't think it's TVM, go talk to mistakebytehlak. He's got a masters degree in economics and will tell you that's exactly what it is. Anyone with knowledge of economics will tell you the same thing.


And you're not just moving up from 30 something to 20 something, you're moving down from probably top 10 to the 20's next year. Not sure how you can talk about the difference in talent from 30's to 20's this year and how the one year doesn't make much of a difference then justify trading away our likely top 10 pick in 2015 for a late-first in 2014 or mid-first in 2015 (if we're just showing the yearly swaps).
_________________

- Best since day one -
The road to success is always under construction - Gus Bradley
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Adrenaline_Flux


Joined: 19 Dec 2008
Posts: 20651
Location: The Iowa
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or really, any sort of business knowledge. TVM is a pretty basic concept in the business world. iPwn is 100% correct in his explanation.

For a team like ours, it's important to have more selections now. I understand possibly trading one of our 4ths or 5ths for a future 3rd or 4th, but I don't think we can afford to invest a 2nd for a future 1st at this stage in the rebuilding process.
_________________


Winner of Football's Future Big Brother II
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
JagsFanInNY


Joined: 25 Feb 2013
Posts: 1389
Location: Brooklyn, NY
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
If you don't think it's TVM, go talk to mistakebytehlak. He's got a masters degree in economics and will tell you that's exactly what it is. Anyone with knowledge of economics will tell you the same thing.


And you're not just moving up from 30 something to 20 something, you're moving down from probably top 10 to the 20's next year. Not sure how you can talk about the difference in talent from 30's to 20's this year and how the one year doesn't make much of a difference then justify trading away our likely top 10 pick in 2015 for a late-first in 2014 or mid-first in 2015 (if we're just showing the yearly swaps).


1)I am not doubting TVM concepts apply. My point is they are improperly assessing the 'time value' aspect. A dollar now is worth more than a dollar in the future, and so all things equal a 2014 1st is worth more than a 2015 1st. But if the question is whether $1 is worth more than $1.25 in a week, the answer is not as simple. What can that $1.00 invested for a week turn into? Is it more than $1.25, because if it isn't, the $1.25 is better to have. That is the question, and so when applied to the draft, I am saying it is VERY often the case that you are better off with the 1st rounder next year than the second rounder this year. That is the time value of money and how it is applied to this very situation.

2)I do not love the second trade, but I wanted to get all 3 scenarios to play out over the next 2 years. To be very honest, I am not a huge fan of trading a future 1 for a current 1 just yet.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
.Buzz


Joined: 16 Jul 2013
Posts: 1343
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Honestly, both our tackle spots are pretty well covered. We keep waiting for Pasztor to have a game where he makes us unsure of him, but I definitely think he's our RT of the future. We need interior line help, and there are some very solid options to help us there in the mid round. I'd rather build up key spots on the defense or go QB in the 1st rounds. The 2nd round is probably the earliest i'm looking at OL, and I would not do those trades personally. Caldwell loves picks, he wants to garner as many as possible because that is what he is known for and has great knowledge of. I don't see him trading up 10 spots unless a guy he loves falls because we want the most picks we can.
_________________

#BortlesKombat
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
iPwn


Moderator
Joined: 10 Oct 2009
Posts: 45562
Location: Warbortles Nation
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not difficult to assess. The market sets the value of TVM. Every future pick trade includes either the same round + extra picks or a +1 round increase. The market has set that the future round pick is devalued one round. It's proper assessment of the value because that's what the market has set. In every day operations, $1 isn't worth more than $1.25 a week later because we know the market doesn't set it at that level, but in certain situations where the commodity is further restricted (at a movie theater or ball game), the $1 is often times worth the same as $3-4 just 4 hours later, because again, the market (and very high restriction on the commodity in that situation) sets it at that level.

You may find that patience is worth the increase in production, but the doesn't mean that the valuation is wrong or that it isn't proper use of TVM, it just means that you're willing to trade the time for value.

Anyway.....


I also don't think we need to follow some blueprint to a huge extent. We have a lot more holes than San Fran did, or really any team did. We need to find talent. If that means trading up to get a 4* guy because we only see 2.5* guys available at our pick, cool, or if it means trading back and getting a few 2* guys when we've got a 2.1* guy looking at it, that's great too.

And while it's not likely to find a top tier talent, the 4th round has produced Henry Melton, Josh Sitton, Geno Atkins, Aaron Hernandez (that's the talent/troubled situation risk type player), Cecil, Dashon Goldson, Jahri Evans, and several others. And the 3rd-4th round is typically the sweet spot for starting caliber guards, even if they aren't "elite talent" guards. Keeping that 4th or maybe packaging it with a 7th rounder or something could lock down one of our bigger needs for 7-10 years with at least average play.
_________________

- Best since day one -
The road to success is always under construction - Gus Bradley
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Tugboat


Joined: 30 Mar 2011
Posts: 3316
PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The whole TVM concept as applied to present/future draft picks is clearly the established standard as a whole. But i think JagsFanInNY has something of a valid point in there. I'm just not sure if it applies to the Jaguars and the current state of the team.

I think that we often see an imbalanced 'value' in the TVM concept with draft picks, as it gets skewed by what a particular team 'values'. Basically, for a team like the Pats make an annual routine of stockpiling 'future picks' with seemingly pretty good results. Even the Niners now that they've stocked up for quite a while building a talent base throughout the roster, can afford to 'push back' their talent acquisition by a year because the 'pipeline' is already flowing at high capacity as they cash in the returns on their investments from the year before in 'deferred picks' and what amounts to 'redshirted NFLers', like the Tank Carradines, Lattimore's etc.

The Jaguars on the other hand, our pipeline is empty. We have no reserve guys, or guys 'waiting in the wings'. Anyone worth their salt from last year is already on the team and playing quite a bit...and we still have serious holes pretty much everywhere on the field.

Basically, i think there's a lot of merit to shuffling 2014 picks for higher 2015 picks for a team that can afford the luxury. But for a team like the Jaguars, the value of a pick now that can be directly inserted and start developing at the NFL level is effectively higher, relative to a team with a deep, solid core roster in place, and the pipeline providing plenty of 'prior year' yields to offset the temporary loss of value. It's something to aspire to...but not really within the reach of what the Jaguars need to be doing right now.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Jacksonville Jaguars All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group