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Arian Foster- MOD UPDATE: Done for Season
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Grasspike


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Joined: 07 Jan 2007
Posts: 5148
Location: Davidson College
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 1:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pastor Dillon wrote:
Phillips needs to sit Ben Tate down and tell him that this is his chance to get rich quick. A motivated Tate can be a very good thing


You think Tate doesn't already realize that? That's why he's playing through broken ribs right now. He'd be out if he didn't smell that money
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Texans02


Joined: 11 Mar 2005
Posts: 1763
Location: HOU+ATX
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Grasspike wrote:
You think Tate doesn't already realize that? That's why he's playing through broken ribs right now. He'd be out if he didn't smell that money


Sadly yes. Tate has been made of glass, now all of a sudden he's playing with broken ribs? Smells like playing for a contract. I just hope we aren't the suckers that give it to him.

At least we'll get a comp pick when he starts sitting in someone else's training room for much more $$.
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Apollo Stallion wrote:
Couldn't we have Gallery Furniture "Saves You Money" day vs. Buffalo where everyone is given a stack of cash to throw as Mario exists the tunnel?


Yes please!
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amazingandre


Joined: 16 Dec 2007
Posts: 13945
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

with dennis johnson and ray graham i think we will be ok without tate
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Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Arian had an abusive 405 carries last year including the post season and that doesn't even include the 37 receptions.

I posted about this last season and this offseason and now you can firmly place Arian Foster alongside Michael Turner, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Terrell Davis, and a litany of other backs done in by "the curse of 370." Essentially, the theory states that when you abuse your lead back by pushing his carry total over 370, the player you get back the next season usually gets hurt (72%) or performs measurably worse than the previous season (96%). I'll post the original article from the archive before, but there have been numerous additions to the list and I think it's safe to include Ray Rice in there as well (if you include all the receptions).

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10curseof370

It's just another example of the Texans offense living in the 20th century (along with overreliance on one WR vs. three including a slot, ignoring mobility w/Qbs, lack of an effective red zone package, running the ball into piles in short yardage, kicking 20 yard FGs, etc) when asking a back to shoulder that kind of load was an acceptable long-term strategy (especially after resigning him early for $43.5 million). The mountain of evidence points to carry limits on backs, both as a short-term strategy to maximise effectiveness in game, in season, and career which is why most teams have some form of a 2 back offense today with 8-10 carries per game making a huge difference over the course of a season. Over the long haul it is no less irresponsible for a coach to ignore the numbers and fail to minimize the load than it is for baseball teams to increase innings counts on young pitchers more than 20% per season or let them go out and pitch 200 innings as it invites destroying the effectiveness of franchise pitchers. My baseball Cardinals specifically limited Wacha this season and it paid off with his continued effectiveness into the post season, while Foster appeared cooked by Thanksgiving last year and it's no accident that he had his "irregular heartbeat" issue following a Colts game where he had 27 carries. For goodness sakes, how the heck does an alarm bell not go off in Kubs head that giving Foster 32 carries & 8 receptions in the Bengals game, might impact his effectiveness when you need him to take the next step vs. the Pats. If you can't trust Tate or Forsett to take 8 of those carries and likely get the same 4 yards, why are they on the team?

Kubiak gave Foster the ball an absurd 132 times in the first 5 games (26 carries per) last year including blowouts vs. Miami, Jax, Tenn and what should have been one vs. the Jets if he didn't keep them close with another patented 20 yard field goal fest. Ben Tate wasn't hurt for the lions share of these games and Justin Forsett did just fine with a 5.9 ypc and I still have no idea why we didn't promote a 4th back from the PS when Tate got hurt vs. Tyler Clutts who was collecting dust as a backup FB.

The check clearly came due this season and needs to be a factor when evaluating Kubiak, just like his mentor Shanny's inability to see the big picture in risking RG3 in a game where he was clearly injured ultimately blowing out his knee. I'm not sure I trust Kubiak to keep the best long-term interests of this team in mind if he is handed a young QB to work with next year with his job clearly on the line. Sadly, it is rather ironic that Kubiak asked Foster to carry this offense on his back last season and that's exactly what gave out on him this season. There is going to be plenty of post-mortem on where this season went wrong, but this one seems to pretty clearly point to Kubiak and his refusal to integrate a 2nd back early last season while he was selling out for a Sept-Oct winning streak that means nothing in Dec-Jan.
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