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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
J-ALL-DAY wrote:

Would you say Kaepernick was a big reason we beat the Texans?


I'd say football is a TEAM sport.. and everyone contributes. I think it is petty and simple-minded to try and point fingers at one aspect and not another. I see no point in faulting the offense for their defense making a couple of huge plays.


And no one is denying that. It's just that you could pretty much substitute Smith with a replacement level player and they still probably win that game.


If it's so easy not to throw ints then why do some guys seem to do it often, and why does Alex always seem to be amount the league leaders in lowest int rate? It simply is not true at all that any QB can play error-free ball as consistently as Alex.


Because other guys have a much more aggressive style of play, and throw more risky passes. Let's not pretend that Alex is throwing crazy accurate passes to avoid these interceptions. He's taking zero risk with most of his throws, and gets these results because of it.
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49ers Finest


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

steadypimpin wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
Wait until the Chiefs play the Broncos next week. They are averaging over 30 points a game. Do you guys think Alex ball will win that game? I have a feeling the chiefs are going to be in for a reality check next week. The Broncos will probably start out slow but that defense can't hold everyone on Denver's offense and once the score gets over 21 it will be fun to watch Alex and his offense curl up into a little ball and die for the rest of that game.


No. Alex Ball isn't going to beat the Broncos. But then again, Alex will always have those one or two statistical outlier games where he'll blow up against a team he wasn't expected to beat, and lead the team to a victory (see: New Orleans; playoffs; 2011). Either way, those Broncos/Chiefs games should prove to be very fun.
That's the only game Akex ever blew up in. That Saints game is the only time we've ever really seen help carry a team to victory. I swear that is like the only game Smith fans ever really bring up.

you remember the eagles game?
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

49ers Finest wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
Wait until the Chiefs play the Broncos next week. They are averaging over 30 points a game. Do you guys think Alex ball will win that game? I have a feeling the chiefs are going to be in for a reality check next week. The Broncos will probably start out slow but that defense can't hold everyone on Denver's offense and once the score gets over 21 it will be fun to watch Alex and his offense curl up into a little ball and die for the rest of that game.


No. Alex Ball isn't going to beat the Broncos. But then again, Alex will always have those one or two statistical outlier games where he'll blow up against a team he wasn't expected to beat, and lead the team to a victory (see: New Orleans; playoffs; 2011). Either way, those Broncos/Chiefs games should prove to be very fun.
That's the only game Akex ever blew up in. That Saints game is the only time we've ever really seen help carry a team to victory. I swear that is like the only game Smith fans ever really bring up.

you remember the eagles game?



The Bills game last year. Then the Arizona game where he was almost perfect.

Then again, teams who have to rely on a QB carrying them to victories usually don't win Superbowls. Teams who play great defense, don't turn the ball over, have a solid running game, those are the teams that win superbowls. In that sense, Alex is a championship-caliber QB, whereas Philip Rivers, for example, who is often deemed a better QB, will never win a superbowl.
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steadypimpin


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
49ers Finest wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
Wait until the Chiefs play the Broncos next week. They are averaging over 30 points a game. Do you guys think Alex ball will win that game? I have a feeling the chiefs are going to be in for a reality check next week. The Broncos will probably start out slow but that defense can't hold everyone on Denver's offense and once the score gets over 21 it will be fun to watch Alex and his offense curl up into a little ball and die for the rest of that game.


No. Alex Ball isn't going to beat the Broncos. But then again, Alex will always have those one or two statistical outlier games where he'll blow up against a team he wasn't expected to beat, and lead the team to a victory (see: New Orleans; playoffs; 2011). Either way, those Broncos/Chiefs games should prove to be very fun.
That's the only game Akex ever blew up in. That Saints game is the only time we've ever really seen help carry a team to victory. I swear that is like the only game Smith fans ever really bring up.

you remember the eagles game?



The Bills game last year. Then the Arizona game where he was almost perfect.

Then again, teams who have to rely on a QB carrying them to victories usually don't win Superbowls. Teams who play great defense, don't turn the ball over, have a solid running game, those are the teams that win superbowls. In that sense, Alex is a championship-caliber QB, whereas Philip Rivers, for example, who is often deemed a better QB, will never win a superbowl.
The Eagles game was won by the defense sorry. They got us the ball when we thought that game was over. The Bills and Az game is all you guys got? Those are two of the crappiest teams we played last year.

Charles has been making plays off of short dumpoffs not rushes so those are basically like run plays too so you can't act like he hasn't been playing well.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
If it's so easy not to throw ints then why do some guys seem to do it often, and why does Alex always seem to be amoung the league leaders in lowest int rate? It simply is not true at all that any QB can play error-free ball as consistently as Alex.


Certainly not making mistakes is a big part of Alex's game, but I think you're vastly overrating that stat. He currently ranks 2nd in the league in INT% (discounting Foles' 3 starts), but he also ranks 28th in TD%. You look at the top quarterbacks in the league, and you have guys like Luck (First in INT%, 10th in TD%), Rodgers (4th in INT%, 4th in TD%), Manning (9th in INT%, 1st in TD%), Brees (12th in INT%, 2nd in TD%). They all do fairly well in keeping the INT% low, but also keep the TD% high. Putting points on the board is just as important as keeping opponents from putting easy points on theirs. The great QBs who play a larger factor in their team's success do both. Even Brady, who is having a down year, ranks 8th in INT%, but in his down year - he's 18th in TD%.

The flip side of that, Matt Glennon ranks 3rd in INT%, Sam Bradford 4th in INT%, EJ Manuel ranks 11th in INT% - despite doing a good job in limiting mistakes themselves, they're not representative of team wins. Because simply limiting turnovers is not enough to win, and the team needs other parts.

This is why I said - Alex by himself is not indicative of that team being 9-0, and the defense and Andy Reid's coaching are playing just as large a role. Alex is important, for sure - because he doesn't give the opposing teams extra opportunities, but there are a lot of factors playing into that team's start.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:


but he also ranks 28th in TD%. You look at the top quarterbacks in the league, and you have guys like Luck (First in INT%, 10th in TD%), Rodgers (4th in INT%, 4th in TD%), Manning (9th in INT%, 1st in TD%), Brees (12th in INT%, 2nd in TD%). They all do fairly well in keeping the INT% low, but also keep the TD% high.


Not sure that's terribly fair either. Watched every game, and Smith has had some really unfortunate calls and drops ruin what would otherwise be more TDs.

Whatever either way... not mad at anyone here, and don't wish to be. I don't even post here much, and sure as hell don't want those posts to be about Alex friggin Smith. That time has come and gone... How bout everyone just move on from him here?
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:


but he also ranks 28th in TD%. You look at the top quarterbacks in the league, and you have guys like Luck (First in INT%, 10th in TD%), Rodgers (4th in INT%, 4th in TD%), Manning (9th in INT%, 1st in TD%), Brees (12th in INT%, 2nd in TD%). They all do fairly well in keeping the INT% low, but also keep the TD% high.


Not sure that's terribly fair either. Watched every game, and Smith has had some really unfortunate calls and drops ruin what would otherwise be more TDs.


I agree - I've been watching the games and he has had his receivers make some terrible drops (McCluster in Sunday's game), but on the same token, so has Tom Brady. 3 of the top 6 players in the league in drops are NE receivers. There's only one KC player in the top 40. Brady has 3, Peyton has 3, Luck has 2. Poor Matt Stafford has just about every receiver he's ever thrown to up there...And it's not just sheer volume taking into account here - Alex shockingly ranks 8th in pass attempts and is right in line with the league leaders.

All I meant by throwing TD% up there with INT% is to show that simply INT% isn't the only thing that matters, not suggesting just the two of them are all you should take into account.
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Chrissooner49er


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UofMfan909 wrote:
49ers Finest wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
That's why that stat sucks. Is Alex the reason the Cheifs are 9-0? I'd say no. He's along for the ride doing the bare minimum like he was with us. I mean look at what he did yesterday, 120+ yards. Hell, the Cheifs D scored 14 of the 23 points. If the D didn't score they would've lost. I'd say Alex is benefiting from a beast defense again. When they see the Broncos or anyone good they're going to get stomped.

you know they were the WORST team in the league last year right


Exactly. Do you really think Smith turns the worst team in the league to a 9-0 one himself? That's insane.


No one is saying he did it by himself. Andy Reid, the D and Alex...it takes all of those and more.
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UofMfan909


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
49ers Finest wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
Wait until the Chiefs play the Broncos next week. They are averaging over 30 points a game. Do you guys think Alex ball will win that game? I have a feeling the chiefs are going to be in for a reality check next week. The Broncos will probably start out slow but that defense can't hold everyone on Denver's offense and once the score gets over 21 it will be fun to watch Alex and his offense curl up into a little ball and die for the rest of that game.


No. Alex Ball isn't going to beat the Broncos. But then again, Alex will always have those one or two statistical outlier games where he'll blow up against a team he wasn't expected to beat, and lead the team to a victory (see: New Orleans; playoffs; 2011). Either way, those Broncos/Chiefs games should prove to be very fun.
That's the only game Akex ever blew up in. That Saints game is the only time we've ever really seen help carry a team to victory. I swear that is like the only game Smith fans ever really bring up.

you remember the eagles game?



The Bills game last year. Then the Arizona game where he was almost perfect.

Then again, teams who have to rely on a QB carrying them to victories usually don't win Superbowls. Teams who play great defense, don't turn the ball over, have a solid running game, those are the teams that win superbowls. In that sense, Alex is a championship-caliber QB, whereas Philip Rivers, for example, who is often deemed a better QB, will never win a superbowl.



Except both have gone equally far in the playoffs, Rivers has a significantly better win percent, a lower career INT% and a significantly higher career TD%.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UofMfan909 wrote:
I'm confident that most replacement level QBs would have led the team to victory yesterday as well. .


I do read your posts but you keep repeating the above. I wonder if you actually look at stats, and which stats correlate with winning. There were 32 QBs that played major parts of games this week. Only 10 of those 32 had no ints and no lost fumbles. I suspect that is about a typical number. It simply is not true that any old QB can go out there with a high likelihood of playing error-free ball. On any given Sunday the majority of QBs fail to do that.

As to how important that is, look at the resutls of those games where QBs did play error free. Eight of those won their games, in one game both QBs played error free ball so one had to lose. And the tenth was the TB game where the worst team in the league, helped by the error free ball of its QB, took arguably the best team in the league into overtime. I just don't know how to show any better how important error-free ball is, or how wrong it is to think anyone can do it. On the off chance you've forgotten the details of our own season ... we are last in the league in passing but have one of the best records. However in those two losses of ours Kap had 3 ints in one of them and an int and a lost fumble in the other.

Several really good QBs lost games yesterday because of their mistakes, on the other hand almost every QB that played error free ball won, several really good teams with good records have lost their games when their QB made a lot of turnovers - including our own two losses. And yet for some reason people just can't seem to grasp this utterly simple fact. Error-free play from the goes a long way to helping a team win. And very few QBs are consistently good at playing error free games.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoCalNiner wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
J-ALL-DAY wrote:

Would you say Kaepernick was a big reason we beat the Texans?


I'd say football is a TEAM sport.. and everyone contributes. I think it is petty and simple-minded to try and point fingers at one aspect and not another. I see no point in faulting the offense for their defense making a couple of huge plays.


And no one is denying that. It's just that you could pretty much substitute Smith with a replacement level player and they still probably win that game.


If it's so easy not to throw ints then why do some guys seem to do it often, and why does Alex always seem to be amount the league leaders in lowest int rate? It simply is not true at all that any QB can play error-free ball as consistently as Alex.


Because other guys have a much more aggressive style of play, and throw more risky passes. Let's not pretend that Alex is throwing crazy accurate passes to avoid these interceptions. He's taking zero risk with most of his throws, and gets these results because of it.


Of course. I understand and I'm not trying to pretend otherwise. But somehow you make it sound like that is a bad thing. I'm suggesting it's not and that taking a "much more aggressive style" as you phrase it and throwing "more risky" passes in not as important as playing error-free ball.

Check my last post for the results of the QBs who played error-free ball yesterday. There were only 10 of them, and two played each other so one had to lose. Of the other nine that played error free ball 8 won and the other was the TB QB who took the worst team in the NFL into overtime against the best team in the NFL. I'm not pretending those error free QBs won at a high rate, It's a fact. I'm suggesting that error-free ball is a key element for on-going success. This goes hand in hand with my regularly pointing out that on any given Sunday many of the leaders in passing yardage are in losing efforts.

This really isn't an argument about Alex as much as about how to play winning football. On any given Sunday many of the days passing leaders lost their games and most of the QBs that had error-free days won their games. Isn't there something perverse then in wanting more passing yards instead of more error-free games, or in directly or indirectly criticising the risk-averse, error-free QB who won his game vs the "risk taking", "aggressive" QB who lost his game?
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:

This is why I said - Alex by himself is not indicative of that team being 9-0, and the defense and Andy Reid's coaching are playing just as large a role. Alex is important, for sure - because he doesn't give the opposing teams extra opportunities, but there are a lot of factors playing into that team's start.


Perfectly said. Was never arguing that he's the only, or even primary reason they're winning, just can't handle the on-going suggestions that he hever contributes to his teams' winning.
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
J-ALL-DAY wrote:

Would you say Kaepernick was a big reason we beat the Texans?


I'd say football is a TEAM sport.. and everyone contributes. I think it is petty and simple-minded to try and point fingers at one aspect and not another. I see no point in faulting the offense for their defense making a couple of huge plays.


And no one is denying that. It's just that you could pretty much substitute Smith with a replacement level player and they still probably win that game.


If it's so easy not to throw ints then why do some guys seem to do it often, and why does Alex always seem to be amount the league leaders in lowest int rate? It simply is not true at all that any QB can play error-free ball as consistently as Alex.


Because other guys have a much more aggressive style of play, and throw more risky passes. Let's not pretend that Alex is throwing crazy accurate passes to avoid these interceptions. He's taking zero risk with most of his throws, and gets these results because of it.


Of course. I understand and I'm not trying to pretend otherwise. But somehow you make it sound like that is a bad thing. I'm suggesting it's not and that taking a "much more aggressive style" as you phrase it and throwing "more risky" passes in not as important as playing error-free ball.

Check my last post for the results of the QBs who played error-free ball yesterday. There were only 10 of them, and two played each other so one had to lose. Of the other nine that played error free ball 8 won and the other was the TB QB who took the worst team in the NFL into overtime against the best team in the NFL. I'm not pretending those error free QBs won at a high rate, It's a fact. I'm suggesting that error-free ball is a key element for on-going success. This goes hand in hand with my regularly pointing out that on any given Sunday many of the leaders in passing yardage are in losing efforts.

This really isn't an argument about Alex as much as about how to play winning football. On any given Sunday many of the days passing leaders lost their games and most of the QBs that had error-free days won their games. Isn't there something perverse then in wanting more passing yards instead of more error-free games, or in directly or indirectly criticising the risk-averse, error-free QB who won his game vs the "risk taking", "aggressive" QB who lost his game?


I'm not saying it's a bad thing. I just don't think that not taking risks deserves as much praise as you do. I suppose we just prefer a different brand of football. There's no doubt that limiting turnovers is key, but so is scoring points. When you take no risks, points are hard to come by.
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UofMfan909


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
UofMfan909 wrote:
I'm confident that most replacement level QBs would have led the team to victory yesterday as well. .


I do read your posts but you keep repeating the above. I wonder if you actually look at stats, and which stats correlate with winning. There were 32 QBs that played major parts of games this week. Only 10 of those 32 had no ints and no lost fumbles. I suspect that is about a typical number. It simply is not true that any old QB can go out there with a high likelihood of playing error-free ball. On any given Sunday the majority of QBs fail to do that.

As to how important that is, look at the resutls of those games where QBs did play error free. Eight of those won their games, in one game both QBs played error free ball so one had to lose. And the tenth was the TB game where the worst team in the league, helped by the error free ball of its QB, took arguably the best team in the league into overtime. I just don't know how to show any better how important error-free ball is, or how wrong it is to think anyone can do it. On the off chance you've forgotten the details of our own season ... we are last in the league in passing but have one of the best records. However in those two losses of ours Kap had 3 ints in one of them and an int and a lost fumble in the other.

Several really good QBs lost games yesterday because of their mistakes, on the other hand almost every QB that played error free ball won, several really good teams with good records have lost their games when their QB made a lot of turnovers - including our own two losses. And yet for some reason people just can't seem to grasp this utterly simple fact. Error-free play from the goes a long way to helping a team win. And very few QBs are consistently good at playing error free games.


The defense put up 14 points on its own and the opposition scored 13 total points all game. Common sense alone should tell you that any non-terrible Quarterbacking performance would've led the team to a win in that scenario. Is your affinity for Alex going to continue to keep you denying that?

I'm not saying he hasn't contributed to the team being 9-0. I'm saying that KC still wins on Sunday with many different QBs at the helm. can't believe that this is actually being disputed when one defense outscored BOTH offenses on the day. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
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49ers Finest


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

steadypimpin wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
49ers Finest wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
Wait until the Chiefs play the Broncos next week. They are averaging over 30 points a game. Do you guys think Alex ball will win that game? I have a feeling the chiefs are going to be in for a reality check next week. The Broncos will probably start out slow but that defense can't hold everyone on Denver's offense and once the score gets over 21 it will be fun to watch Alex and his offense curl up into a little ball and die for the rest of that game.


No. Alex Ball isn't going to beat the Broncos. But then again, Alex will always have those one or two statistical outlier games where he'll blow up against a team he wasn't expected to beat, and lead the team to a victory (see: New Orleans; playoffs; 2011). Either way, those Broncos/Chiefs games should prove to be very fun.
That's the only game Akex ever blew up in. That Saints game is the only time we've ever really seen help carry a team to victory. I swear that is like the only game Smith fans ever really bring up.

you remember the eagles game?



The Bills game last year. Then the Arizona game where he was almost perfect.

Then again, teams who have to rely on a QB carrying them to victories usually don't win Superbowls. Teams who play great defense, don't turn the ball over, have a solid running game, those are the teams that win superbowls. In that sense, Alex is a championship-caliber QB, whereas Philip Rivers, for example, who is often deemed a better QB, will never win a superbowl.
The Eagles game was won by the defense sorry. They got us the ball when we thought that game was over. The Bills and Az game is all you guys got? Those are two of the crappiest teams we played last year.

Charles has been making plays off of short dumpoffs not rushes so those are basically like run plays too so you can't act like he hasn't been playing well.

i really feel like you have selective memory
the d got torched first half.
alex put the team on his back the second half. we went spread and alex was on fire. the d finally made some stops

we were still down and got a turnover. which is true. but the d def did not have a good game that day
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