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Pass defense statistical improvement

 
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 5:45 pm    Post subject: Pass defense statistical improvement Reply with quote

The Pats have held opposing QBs to a 70.6 combined passer rating through 8 games this year. That's down from 86.9 last year. And unlike last year when takeaways [20 interceptions] covered up for obvious deficiencies in the pass defense, the pass defense has actually been pretty stingy through the first half of the season.

Completion %: 54.9% [2nd best in the league; down from 62.1%]
YPA: 6.4 [t5th best; down from 7.7]
Pass TD: 9 allowed [t8th fewest; down from 17 through 8 games last year]

Interesting that a team that's fallen off so considerably in practically every other statistical category from last year actually has a better record than a year ago at the midway point. I guess this is the biggest reason why.
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I_GET_SAX


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where does credit lie? I personally think Galib deserves some of it as we saw a transition slowly starting since his trade here. I also think blitzing more this season has attributed to QB's having less time to make our secondary look out of place. I think our players have all as a unit played much better and the game plans have been good defensively too. Such as the game plans versus TB and Vjax, ATL and their receiving weapons when healthy and NO and a jimmy Graham.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I_GET_SAX wrote:
Where does credit lie? I personally think Galib deserves some of it as we saw a transition slowly starting since his trade here. I also think blitzing more this season has attributed to QB's having less time to make our secondary look out of place. I think our players have all as a unit played much better and the game plans have been good defensively too. Such as the game plans versus TB and Vjax, ATL and their receiving weapons when healthy and NO and a jimmy Graham.
I honestly think the biggest boon has been moving McCourty to safety. He's been pretty exceptional at providing deep help for corners.
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I_GET_SAX


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 6:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
I_GET_SAX wrote:
Where does credit lie? I personally think Galib deserves some of it as we saw a transition slowly starting since his trade here. I also think blitzing more this season has attributed to QB's having less time to make our secondary look out of place. I think our players have all as a unit played much better and the game plans have been good defensively too. Such as the game plans versus TB and Vjax, ATL and their receiving weapons when healthy and NO and a jimmy Graham.
I honestly think the biggest boon has been moving McCourty to safety. He's been pretty exceptional at providing deep help for corners.


McCourty has led the league in snaps played by all players including his work on defense and ST. I totally forgot that transition the second Talib came in we were able to find that FS fit we have not had either. That day created a bit of ease and a monumental change of ways for the secondary in terms of better play. Devin has been playing brilliantly and deserves mention as a quiet
DPOY nominee.
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ChazStandard


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not to be a downer...but it's not exactly a murderer's row of QBs they've faced so far this year.

They've improved markedly, but part of me (the pessimistic, miserable, party-pooping part of me) feels like the D is being flattered by their opponents right now.
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NinjaZX6R


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ChazStandard wrote:
Not to be a downer...but it's not exactly a murderer's row of QBs they've faced so far this year.

They've improved markedly, but part of me (the pessimistic, miserable, party-pooping part of me) feels like the D is being flattered by their opponents right now.


They stopped Drew Brees didn't they?
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I_GET_SAX


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NinjaZX6R wrote:
ChazStandard wrote:
Not to be a downer...but it's not exactly a murderer's row of QBs they've faced so far this year.

They've improved markedly, but part of me (the pessimistic, miserable, party-pooping part of me) feels like the D is being flattered by their opponents right now.


They stopped Drew Brees didn't they?


Matt Ryan with a healthy Julio and Tony and half healthy Roddy in the dome at ATL?
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 28, 2013 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The D fell apart in the 2nd half of both the Saints and Falcons games.

It's a big improvement and I mostly trust the (healthy) unit in a big game but they're not good to the point where they're going to stymie Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning unless the pass rush is crazy.

The big improvement this year is the lack of deep passes/big plays. I don't fear a 35 yard completion anywhere near as much as I have the past few years. I think there's a big cohesion effect, and the continuity of the same 5 guys (Talib, Dennard, Gregory, McCourty, Arrington) seeing most of the snaps has helped.

A lot of their problems over the past few years were related to poor talent but really magnified by breakdowns and miscommunications.
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 6:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whats surprised me is how well the D has dealt with the hammer blow of losing both DT's. The 2 Rookies have been solid and Chris Jones is looking like a nice find for the future.

I really hope we can keep this Secondary corps together so we can pair them with a solid D-Line when Wilfork, Kelly and a 1st Round Pick come in next year Wink
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derekstanggt


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those are nice numbers to see, but I don't think they tell the whole story. While I absolutely believe the pass defense has improved from last year (hard not to), it's becoming more evident to me that it's less the dominance of the Pats defense, and more the game planning of the other teams.

For example, in years past, the offense has been immensely effective, the passing game especially. The Pats would often take an early lead and keep their foot on the pedal all the way to the end, much like Denver this year. This caused opposing offenses to pass more in order to try to keep up. Therefore the defense gave up much more passing yardage and TDs. It also allowed opposing offenses to get into a rhythm and abuse the Pats D. However, this year, there has obviously not been the threat of a strong passing game that could take over at any point and put up 28 points in a quarter. As a result, opposing teams have been playing a more balanced game. To add to that, 3 of the top 4 best run defenders in the middle have been hurt, so opposing offenses are licking their chops at the thought of running all over the Pats weakened front seven. Which they’ve been doing effectively. I believe this is the reason the pass defense looks so good. Granted, the unit as a whole is much improved, and I think is still a top 10 defense overall, top 5 pass defense. But, like I said, I don’t think these numbers tell the whole story.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
The D fell apart in the 2nd half of both the Saints and Falcons games.
'fell apart' against the Falcons is an overstatement.
They allowed the one long completion from Ryan to Julio Jones that was basically impossible to cover, but other than that the Falcons just got very lucky, between the replay system malfunctioning, Suckfeld not handling the onside kick and Brady fumbling a snap, the Pats offense/ST basically did all they could to give that game away and the Falcons still only managed 13 second half points.

Against the Saints they didn't play that much worse in the 2nd half than the first, and they were without Talib for the 2nd half, so there were some mitigating circumstance. The 361 total yards was still the Saints' 2nd lowest total of the season.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 1:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not such a great day yesterday. Dennard, Arrington and Ryan each got smoked for at least one big play when left on an island. Ryan looked especially bad on the TD he gave up when he whiffed completely tryng to jam Cotchery at the line. The team played a lot more man coverage against the Pittsburgh receivers for some reason. I think this underscores how important Talib is, since he's a guy you actually CAN leave on an island for long stretches, and swing coverage over to help the other corners.

Pass rush also faltered in the 2nd half when Ninkovich left the game.
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NinjaZX6R


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
Not such a great day yesterday. Dennard, Arrington and Ryan each got smoked for at least one big play when left on an island. Ryan looked especially bad on the TD he gave up when he whiffed completely tryng to jam Cotchery at the line. The team played a lot more man coverage against the Pittsburgh receivers for some reason. I think this underscores how important Talib is, since he's a guy you actually CAN leave on an island for long stretches, and swing coverage over to help the other corners.

Pass rush also faltered in the 2nd half when Ninkovich left the game.


The run defense faltered too in the 2nd half. They couldn't use the 34 defense to stop the run like they did in the 1st half.

Ninko was missed.
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derekstanggt


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 04, 2013 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

derekstanggt wrote:
Those are nice numbers to see, but I don't think they tell the whole story. While I absolutely believe the pass defense has improved from last year (hard not to), it's becoming more evident to me that it's less the dominance of the Pats defense, and more the game planning of the other teams.

For example, in years past, the offense has been immensely effective, the passing game especially. The Pats would often take an early lead and keep their foot on the pedal all the way to the end, much like Denver this year. This caused opposing offenses to pass more in order to try to keep up. Therefore the defense gave up much more passing yardage and TDs. It also allowed opposing offenses to get into a rhythm and abuse the Pats D. However, this year, there has obviously not been the threat of a strong passing game that could take over at any point and put up 28 points in a quarter. As a result, opposing teams have been playing a more balanced game. To add to that, 3 of the top 4 best run defenders in the middle have been hurt, so opposing offenses are licking their chops at the thought of running all over the Pats weakened front seven. Which they’ve been doing effectively. I believe this is the reason the pass defense looks so good. Granted, the unit as a whole is much improved, and I think is still a top 10 defense overall, top 5 pass defense. But, like I said, I don’t think these numbers tell the whole story.


I'm going to quote myself here, because yesterday was a perfect example of what I mentioned. Granted, Ben is a top 5 Qb in the NFL with very good weapons, but we see what happens statistically to the Pats D when their offense is on fire. The opposing offense has to keep up and throws it all over the defense. The injuries to Talib, Mayo and Gregory don't help of course, and the fact that the Steelers' OL hasn't been making good holes for Bell. But I expected the defense at halftime to look not so great the rest of the game.
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