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DB424 Monthly Mock Draft Update

 
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Which pick is your "favorite" selection?
1. Brandon Coleman, WR, Rutgers
25%
 25%  [ 1 ]
2. Hroniss Grasu, C, Oregon
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
3. Tre Boston, FS, NC
50%
 50%  [ 2 ]
4. Arthur Lynch, TE, Georgia
25%
 25%  [ 1 ]
4. Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
6. Cornelius Lucas, OT, Kansas State
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
6. Dexter McDougle, CB, UMD
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
6. Nickoe Whitley, S, Miss St
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 4

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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:30 am    Post subject: DB424 Monthly Mock Draft Update Reply with quote

DB424's 2014 Monthly NFL Mock Draft Update

1. Brandon Coleman, WR, Rutgers Scarlet Knights
6'5" 220 lbs- est 40: 4.52s
Brandon Coleman tape
NFL Comparison: Poor Man's Calvin Johnson

Now don't stone me for the comparison. But honestly, Brandon Coleman's style as a WR reminds me of Megatron's. I see similar height, length, and quickness as a big receiver. I also see similar power/tackle breaking ability to Coleman as with Johnson. Coleman obviously doesn't have the elite level explosive ability as Johnson both as a redzone target and as a deep threat. But Coleman is indeed a deep threat and has very deceptive speed. I used that term for Alshon Jeffery as well, but Coleman is definitely more explosive than Jeffery and so his speed matters more. Coleman should be viewed as a legitimate king sized deep threat option... Just without the same insane explosive burst as Megatron, Julio Jones, or a Terrell Owens. He's obviously a step or two slower, but his deep speed itself is very comparable.

Coleman could be the most underrated receiver in this draft. Big, physical, long, jumping ability, hands catcher, playmaking ability, and deceptive speed. That's the package of a top 10 WR, if not the potential to be top 5. Yet some mock draft aficionados have him as a 2nd to 3rd round talent. This guy is going to prove some people wrong if he can land in the right situation... And he's a perfect fit for what we need opposite Torrey Smith as an outside receiving option.

2. Hroniss Grasu, C, Oregon Ducks
6'2 1/2" 298 lbs- est 40: 5.06s
Grasu vs Oregon State (Kyle Long tape)
NFL Comparison: Ryan Kalil

Grasu was Oregon's best and highest graded blocker last season as a sophomore over Kyle Long. He's followed that up with great play once again this season. Like Kalil, he's an undersized technician with plus athletic ability. Grasu would be perfect for our ZBS. He will struggle against massive NTs, so he's not going to be an Alex Mack or Nick Mangold type of complete center option, but as a run blocker his explosive burst and technique makes him very effective. And his athleticism and great balance makes him very effective as a pass blocker against most matchups.

3. Tre Boston, FS, NC Tarheels
6'0" 205 lbs- est 40: 4.53s
Boston against Virginia

Boston shows the athleticism, instincts, and size to be a nice complimentary option to Matt Elam. Elam is going to play closer to the LOS, which works fine as Boston brings the range and ball skills needed to be a competent instrument on the backend.

4. Arthur Lynch, TE, Georgia Bulldogs (Kruger comp)
6'5" 254 lbs- est 40: 4.81s
Arthur Lynch vs Tennessee

Lynch is a very versatile TE option. He is a terrific run blocker which along with Grasu is another addition to help the running game. Lynch is more than just a blocker however. He has proven to be a productive receiving option as well. He looks like he could be a "dependable" #1 TE option and a great #2 TE option. Both a problem for defenses as a blocker yet also a set of hands that the defense has to maintain their attention on.

4. Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin Badgers (Ellerbe comp)
6'1" 190 lbs- est 40: 4.43s
Jared against Oregon

Speaking of reliable hands, that's Abbry. He has a skill set similar enough to Wes Welker that I feel it's a valid comparison. He's very quick, a perfect slot option, has great hands, and is a playmaker. Some sites have him going as low as the 6th round, but I don't see it. He's just too reliable and separates too well for me to not see him going no lower than the 5th round. Now if Deonte Thompson proves he can be the answer to our problems as an effective slot option than we should go in anther direction here, but as it stands there are too many question marks at receiver to simply accept our young options as being enough moving forward.

6. Cornelius Lucas, OT, Kansas State Wildcats
6'8" 328 lbs- est 40 time: 5.21s
Lucas vs Oregon

Lucas quite honestly shouldn't go this low. He's simply too big and athletic. He actually has the athleticism to be a fit in a ZBS. He's also further along as a blocker than equally big Seantrel Henderson. But for some reason many draft experts have him as a 6th round option. Until his stock inevitable rises, I will mock him here. The explanation for him falling that I see is his questionable love for the game of football. So he might just be another Jared Gaither/Bryant McKinnie, but for a third day pick, I'll take the risk that he will continue to be invested in the sport and continue to play at the level he has shown since starting for Kansas State.

6. Dexter McDougle, CB, MD Terrapins (Williams comp)
5'10" 195 lbs- est 40 time: 4.39s
McDougle INT return against UCONN

McDougle is a talented, speedy corner option that was on his way to really elevating his draft stock this season before an injury finished his senior season. He seems like a quality character young player and the Ravens have an obvious lead in to talented Terps by way of proximity. You can never have too much corner depth and with the Corey Graham unlikely to be resigned for next season and with Asa Jackson being one more issue away from a year long suspension... And adding corner talent makes all the more sense. McDougle has the speed, quickness, and size to compete for our nickel spot next season.

6. Nickoe Whitley, S, MS Bulldogs (Reed comp)
6'0" 205 lbs- est 40: 4.61s
Whitley vs Northwestern

Whitley has the ball skills and athleticism to go as early as the second day in the draft. However he has some very real durability concerns that are likely to drop him down on draft day. The Ravens have shown to have payed attention to Mississippi State talent and Whitley is a very low risk, high reward player. He would add a talented safety to compete with our high round options in improving the secondary. Also with his athleticism and size, he would be brought in for the impact he might be able to provide for our special teams units.
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BareYourTeeth


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I voted for Boston as my favorite selection. Top to bottom, though, I love this mock. Position and value wise you nailed it.
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BaltimoreTerp


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't pay particular attention to draft prospects until after the season so I don't really have any thoughts but moreso question for you. Specifically with Coleman, I've seen you rave about him quite a bit, and the mini-Calvin Johnson comparison is pretty eye-opening. So my question is, is this opinion of Coleman so widely shared that you think he might end up rising out of our range? And where do you have us picking right now? Low 20's, high 20's, teens?

Last year around this time I remember Dion Jordan, Tavon Austin, and Sheldon Richardson being mocked to us a lot, but the buzz around them was so strong/they were so universally admired that they went from 'sleeper' 1st round prospects to being guys picked in the Top 5 to 15. Is that something you could see happening with Coleman or is your enthusiasm for him not really shared among the broader prospect evaluation community?
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Mancunian Raven


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I still have hopes that Gino Gradkowski will figure things out, and become a capable starting Center. He's just got to knuckle down and cut out the mental errors, and the line as a whole has to work on the way it blocks.

But with that, I still have my doubts that Michael Oher comes back next year, so I'd swap Hroniss Grasu out for a RT prospect. I guess it's too early to name any guys there, as it seems like Tackles can rise up out of nowhere, or see their stock plummet, over the course of a year.

I don't know much about any of your other picks, but I definitely like the idea of getting a taller, athletic guy to play FS alongside Matt Elam. So I'll say Tre Boston is my favourite of this draft.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BaltimoreTerp wrote:
I don't pay particular attention to draft prospects until after the season so I don't really have any thoughts but moreso question for you. Specifically with Coleman, I've seen you rave about him quite a bit, and the mini-Calvin Johnson comparison is pretty eye-opening. So my question is, is this opinion of Coleman so widely shared that you think he might end up rising out of our range? And where do you have us picking right now? Low 20's, high 20's, teens?

Last year around this time I remember Dion Jordan, Tavon Austin, and Sheldon Richardson being mocked to us a lot, but the buzz around them was so strong/they were so universally admired that they went from 'sleeper' 1st round prospects to being guys picked in the Top 5 to 15. Is that something you could see happening with Coleman or is your enthusiasm for him not really shared among the broader prospect evaluation community?


1. Because this mock is so early, I don't think it's really beneficial to really plug us into a particular draft slot per-se. But as of right now I think we're a playoff team. Likely a divisional round loser until we can prove to fix our running game. So I was considering us moreso in that 25-27 type of area or so. Mid 20s.

2. Well Coleman is tricky. Dion Jordan, Tavon Austin, and Sheldon Richardson were all elite level athletes. And so that definitely helps fans, media, draftniks, and scouts take notice. Elite physical tools also gives one that 'potential' label. So being noticed allowed Austin and Richardson to really gain notoriety once they put up significant production. Jordan's versatility along with his production really intrigued people (including me). So the main point, they were all elite athletes and that helps them to gain notoriety.

Secondly all of those guys also had plenty of hype, they were sort of ranked lower due to questions with their legitimacy. Richardson played in a weaker conference, Austin was small, and Jordan didn't have sack production. So Missouri's move to the SEC helped to legitimize Richardson's dominance. Austin, well, his playmaking skills were just too hard to deny, and Jordan's sack production was answered as more people came to be familiar with Oregon's scheme. So each guy already had plenty of hype, just not much legitimacy going into their final seasons of CFB.
------------

So to answer your question. Do I think he's a guy that's going to experience the same kind of meteoric rise as the aforementioned names? No. I don't.

I don't think Coleman has the elite athleticism that will make people drool over his potential nor does he have the production worth boasting about. Coleman is the kind of player that you actually have to watch and analyze... and so, at least from the mockdraft community, I don't see him going from underrated sleeper guy to fast rising/high 'potential' guy.

Coleman also doesn't have as many highlight reel catches. So he's not going to be a youtube sensation like an Aaron Dobson. Coleman is like the Cordy Glenn of WRs. You watch him closely and you see that he's just a dominating player. Yet his athleticism isn't going to be enough to convince the masses of his talents. My prediction of his speed/athletic profile might go something like this:

10-yd split: 1.59
20-yd split: 2.61
40-yd dash: 4.50

Vertical: 37"
Broad: 10'10"

3-cone: 7.04
Shuttle: 4.25s

So I see definite plus athleticism, especially when considering this guys' size, but it's also not the kind of gameshark code type numbers that make people fall in love with the "potential" of a player.
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coordinator0


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In regards to Coleman I don't think he's going to be taken high in the first round both because of what diamondball424 said as well as the fact that he's not having a very productive season and likely won't put up overly impressive numbers. That's not to say I don't like Coleman but with who Rutgers has at QB he's not going to put up the numbers it's going to take to vault him into the top 20 in my opinion. He's definitely a realistic target for the Ravens at this point.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mancunian Raven wrote:
I still have hopes that Gino Gradkowski will figure things out, and become a capable starting Center. He's just got to knuckle down and cut out the mental errors, and the line as a whole has to work on the way it blocks.

But with that, I still have my doubts that Michael Oher comes back next year, so I'd swap Hroniss Grasu out for a RT prospect. I guess it's too early to name any guys there, as it seems like Tackles can rise up out of nowhere, or see their stock plummet, over the course of a year.

I don't know much about any of your other picks, but I definitely like the idea of getting a taller, athletic guy to play FS alongside Matt Elam. So I'll say Tre Boston is my favourite of this draft.

Sean Hickey, the OT from Syracuse is a name that I was wrestling with alongside Grasu to be our 2nd round pick. He's very lean framed and could use some weight, but he looks to have nice fundamentals, nice arm length and size, along with some very fluid feet. Right now he's listed as a late 2nd round guy... that said, I think he could be one of those guys that rises up draft boards.

That said, I still think adding Grasu upgrades our line more than adding Hickey. I just think Grasu has All Pro caliber potential at center. And I'm one of the people that believes the center is the second most important position on the offensive line after the blindside protector. And it's true, Gradkowski might be able to turn things around, but he had a year to learn behind one of the best centers of the past decade and he's only been lukewarm at best. Gradkowski was a center selection in a very weak center class. Whereas Grasu is the second best center in a pretty talented class. He's a probowl caliber option. I don't think Gradkowski is anything more than simply an adequate option, so I don't think we owe him any kind of string of opportunities to hold onto the job.

Also, I think if we lose Oher, we'll look to sign a Willie Anderson type veteran RT to come in and compete for our RT spot with our rookie selection and Ricky Wagner. Though I'm not convinced we will indeed lose him. I'm starting to get the feeling that we just might do everything in our power to make sure Flacco has two talented veteran options protecting Flacco. And while I doubt we overpay Oher, I think there's a fair chance that we can convince him that we're interested in keeping him around and want him to be a part of championship teams to come. To me, Oher doesn't seem like the money-grubbing type of guy. He seems like a very loyal type of guy, so I'm starting to get a feeling (I know, gut feelings aren't very reliable) that he signs for a very reasonable deal. Just like we expected Yanda to get paid around $7m+ as a top guard, yet he only got $6.4m, I think we could equally see Oher sign for something like $5.5m per (4 years/22m). Can the Ravens afford to pay both Monroe and Oher? I'm not sure, but we'll see.

But back to the point, I think Grasu would be the BPA and an obvious upgrade over a position where we're not "set". So I think we've got to make that pick.
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gooselovechild


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Given your explanation that you see us picking in the mid-20s, I think some of the picks might be a little bit undersold in terms of draft value.

The Boston, Lynch, and Abbrederis selections all seem a little low--especially Lynch, who I can't see lasting almost 130 picks with all the offenses trying to replicate the two TE passing offenses that teams like NE, SF, and HOU have had success with.

I really like the top half of this draft, but I fear you might have to sacrifice one of the picks after Coleman to get the rest, because I could easily see them all going as much as a round earlier than where you have them slotted now.

I know it's really early and this will evolve, but I could really see the top 5 of this draft gone by the middle of round 3.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

gooselovechild wrote:
Given your explanation that you see us picking in the mid-20s, I think some of the picks might be a little bit undersold in terms of draft value.

The Boston, Lynch, and Abbrederis selections all seem a little low--especially Lynch, who I can't see lasting almost 130 picks with all the offenses trying to replicate the two TE passing offenses that teams like NE, SF, and HOU have had success with.

I really like the top half of this draft, but I fear you might have to sacrifice one of the picks after Coleman to get the rest, because I could easily see them all going as much as a round earlier than where you have them slotted now.

I know it's really early and this will evolve, but I could really see the top 5 of this draft gone by the middle of round 3.

I actually erred on the side of overdrafting guys according to where guys were listed at the time of doing this mock. I don't use my evaluations on where I think a player SHOULD go, simply because that would be impossible to do since I'm not going to evaluate every player and compile a full draft list... and even then that would have me assume that other people aren't going to have vastly different opinions/evaluations.

So I use CBSsports Prospect rankings. At the time of doing this their last update had been September 27th IIRC. I would post all of the prospect round projections and rankings, but they've since updated their rankings and change round projections and overall rankings. The following is from their update listing.

CBSsports Prospect Ranking wrote:
Overall Rank, Name, Position, Positional Rank, Year, Hgt, Wgt, Rd Projection
43 Brandon Coleman WR 6 Rutgers rJr 6-5 220 2
76 Hroniss Grasu C 2 Oregon rJr 6-3 298 2-3
118 Tre Boston FS 4 North Carolina Sr 6-0 205 3-4


227 Cornelius Lucas OT 19 Kansas State rSr 6-8 328 6-7

They drastically changed Abry's ranking from a 5-6 rd projection to a 3rd round projection. I was actually over drafting him by a round at the time of their previous ranking.

Arthur Lynch went from a 4-5 to a solid 4.

McDougle went from a 6th to a 5th... though I can't say I overdrafted him since he wasn't a late 6th.

And Whitley has been considered a 6th for my past two drafts but is now considered a solid 5.

So it's not really the early picks that have really shifted, it's really the later ones.

Either I'm really good at picking out the quality players from the sleepers to rise... or CBSsports is just updating their info to get a good laugh out of making my draft info less relevant.

The point is that I don't simply place any player anywhere I want. I mostly tend to err on the side of overdrafting a player or following along with their current stock.

I overdrafted both Coleman and Abbry because I'm really a fan of both players. Obviously someone at least agrees that Abbry was far too underrated a player.

But my future updates will follow the same reliance on someone else's big board and me following along with their rankings or overdrafting players I really like. So honestly, I'm sure plenty of players in my mocks are going to be guys that you can see going much higher or even much later in the draft. But I'm just not going to be responsible for that particular decision. I try to remove as much bias away from my draft process as possible.

For instance, had this new update been available before I compiled this mock, I would have made Travis Swanson my pick at center... as I'm definitely a bigger fan of his than Grasu. I think he can be on that Alex Mack/Nick Mangold level of play- a complete center that can handle both powerful NTs as well as be an athletic blocker.

But at the time, that would have been drafting him too early according to the previous chart.

Though I'm sure by my next mock update, he'll be considered a 1st round pick, if only to... upset me. Not talking
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gooselovechild


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't mistake my commentary as criticism db, it wasn't intended to be. But I've seen all the guys you mocked to us play this season and last--withe the exception of Boston--and the eyeball suggests to me that they will all be drafted higher than their current projections.

I especially see Lynch and Abbrederis being selected higher. Lynch is too bi, physical and talented to last until the comp pick stage of round 4 in a league that is falling in love with TEs again, and Abbrederis has a Largent-like skill set in a 6'2" frame.

I think it was more an allusion that you are ahead of the curve right now than anything. Smile
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gooselovechild wrote:
Don't mistake my commentary as criticism db, it wasn't intended to be. But I've seen all the guys you mocked to us play this season and last--withe the exception of Boston--and the eyeball suggests to me that they will all be drafted higher than their current projections.

I especially see Lynch and Abbrederis being selected higher. Lynch is too bi, physical and talented to last until the comp pick stage of round 4 in a league that is falling in love with TEs again, and Abbrederis has a Largent-like skill set in a 6'2" frame.

I think it was more an allusion that you are ahead of the curve right now than anything. Smile

Well I didn't take it so much as criticism because I believe I said in the prospects thread that I had Abbry graded as a 3rd rounder, so I agree that based on my opinion of his talent, that he's being drafted in a generous spot as per this mock draft. I just wanted to explain that my reasoning for that generous position included a logical reason as opposed to me simply placing players wherever I want like you might see with some mock drafts.

Personally your comments serve as validation towards my opinion on these players. Same with the updated CBS rankings... It just annoys me that it happened the same day as I compiled my mock... Didn't even get a weeks worth of relevance out of these spots.
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alfalcone


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personally I'd much prefer Mike Evans to Brandon Coleman, but no real complaints.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

alfalcone wrote:
Personally I'd much prefer Mike Evans to Brandon Coleman, but no real complaints.

Evans does remind me of a Brandon Marshall in terms of his playing style, but I just think he's so slow. I see 4.64 type speed. And he never separates on routes. Much of his production comes from jump ball situations where he has to consistently out muscle defenders for the ball. Nothing will ever be easy with Evans as a receiver option. He's a taller Anquan Boldin, but not the younger Boldin that could at least create a little separation.

I think Evans can be a top 25 WR option, like Boldin. But I don't think he has the physical tools to ever be a threat on multiple levels. I wouldn't give him a 1st round grade, more like a mid-2nd. There are guys I'd want before him.
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