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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1688
PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thestonedkoala wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:

This is a similar situation to the Chargers in the early 2000s. Tomlinson was the offense while Brees was a very poor QB. His numbers werent even better then Ponder's through year 3. Eventually Brees had a breakout season and had the Chargers committed to him, maybe they would have won a super bowl.


Well, if you want to compare Mike Riley with Leslie Frazier go right ahead. Where is our Marty then? Furthermore, while Brees had problems in San Diego, he broke 3,000 yards passing his first season, and pretty much never posted < 3,000 yard's except his 2nd year but he only played 11 games then.

If Ponder is to break out, we need a Sean Payton. And we don't have him. Brees is such a unique case.


Brees hardly played in his first year, under Mike Riley in 2001. Doug Flutie was the starter.

Schottenheimer took over in 2002, Brees started the whole year and only broke 3000 yards because he threw over 500 times (YPA basically the same as Ponder's last year). He also threw 16 INTs and only 17 TDs. Overall, that's worse than what Ponder did last year, and you can't blame Mike Riley for it.

Brees played only 11 games in his 3rd year. His YPA dropped below 6 and his TD/INT ratio was 11/15. If Ponder does that this year he'll be run out of town.

The Chargers finished last in the league that year, drafted Eli Manning and then traded him for Rivers (taken 4th overall by the Giants).

With Rivers on the team, Brees' 4th year produced less yards than the 2nd, only 3100 yards, but his YPA was way up to 7.9 and his TD/INT ratio was 27/7. That was his first good season. He did almost as well in his 5th year but injured his shoulder. Since his rookie contract was up and there was serious doubt his throwing arm would fully recover, the Chargers decided to move on and Brees was released.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 9:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can you imagine if the Chargers had more patience for Brees, instead of pretty much giving up on him by taking Rivers. They could have drafted Larry Fitzgerald. Brees, Tomlinson, Fitzgerald and Gates in the same offense. Shocked
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Uncle Buck wrote:
I have a "stock options" type of mentality when it comes to Ponder this year. What I mean by this is that all I really want to see is big improvement, or nothing at all. The thing I worry about the most is if he improves just enough to keep his job, but not enough to make the team any better. This could keep us in the same situation for a few more years. Whatever happens with Ponder this year, I want it to be something definite. That way we will know.

If he hangs around without really becoming a true franchise quarterback, taking him in the draft could actually prove to cost this team more time to recover than the Herschel Walker trade. Hard to believe, but it's possible. That's why you don't panic, take a mediocre prospect, and hope for the best with at QB. The old line about making chicken salad was never more true than in cases like this.


If you're an investor in the stock market, directly, or through MFunds or ETFs, you need to take a long run mentality to the table when it comes to your investment choices.

If Ponder develops greatly this season, great! We'd all agree on that.

If Ponder stagnates or develops very little, or regresses this year, he's out, and a new guy is sought. Nearly all of us would agree on that.

However, if Ponder develops 'significantly', but not enough to appear ready to become a top 10 QB, our opinions are mixed as to what his fate should be after 2013. The decision then as to what to do is (almost?) entirely up to Spielman. I'll make an educated guess that his decision will be based on his particular measures of improvement and remaining problems to address going forward.

I'd be willing to tolerate 'significant development' by Ponder in 2013, however that is to be defined by Spielman, as long as the remaining issues are correctable in the future, or if those flaws are not significant to the overall team goals of winning division titles, conference championships and SBs.

Regarding why I would tolerate 'significant' development of Ponder in 2013, but not to a 'near elite' level, I don't see the 2013 Vikings as a team that is going very far in the playoffs. There has been too much change* and too many uncertain new parts** added in the 2013 offseason to expect the Vikings to do much more than win 1 playoff game against a very talented conference of Atlanta, Seattle, SF, and perhaps GB.

* - Winfield, Harvin, Kluwe departed.
** - Floyd, Rhodes, Patterson, Hodges, Bishop, Locke

So, if Ponder makes 'significant' progress in eliminating his weaknesses and flaws in 2013, Spielman (and I) might be willing to allow the Ponder 'investment' to ride a while longer, rather than cash out and try to find a new QB with similar uncertainties in the 2014 draft to invest in for 3-4 years.

I don't buy the argument that AP's best years are now, and few remain, so the Vikings need to win this year or next year. The main goal as a Viking fan is to win for the team, city, state, and other fans. A secondary goal is to build a team that can win over a period of several years, and restock talent along the way. Switching the QB 'investment' in haste is not the ideal way to achieve that goal.

That said, I don't have a problem with drafting a BPA QB in 2014 round 1 IF:

1. Ponder doesn't become a 'near elite' QB in 2013
AND
2. nearly all currently uncertain positions 'solidify/ improve significantly' in 2013; e.g. MLB, SLB, NCB, OG, NT, WRs, RB#2 and other currently strong positions do not deteriorate significantly in 2013.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
Can you imagine if the Chargers had more patience for Brees, instead of pretty much giving up on him by taking Rivers. They could have drafted Larry Fitzgerald. Brees, Tomlinson, Fitzgerald and Gates in the same offense. Shocked


They drafted Eli Manning #1 but then he forced a trade to the Giants for Rivers (who NYG took 4th). The trade included Nate Kaeding and a pick that turned into Shawne Merriman.

That happened after Brees' 3rd year, when his production got even worse from the 2nd year, YPA 5.9 and more INTs than TDs. So it was very reasonable to draft a QB that year.

Brees then had a great 4th year and a very good 5th year, before hurting his throwing shoulder. There was concern he'd never be the same again. Brees probably stays in San Diego (and Rivers gets traded) without that injury.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Imagine what would have happened if the Red Sox owner at the time never traded George Herman 'Babe' Ruth to the Yankees in the Twenties, for cash to finance the Broadway play "No, No, Nannette"? Wink

Last edited by Purplexing on Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:02 pm; edited 1 time in total
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:
Can you imagine if the Chargers had more patience for Brees, instead of pretty much giving up on him by taking Rivers. They could have drafted Larry Fitzgerald. Brees, Tomlinson, Fitzgerald and Gates in the same offense. Shocked


They drafted Eli Manning #1 but then he forced a trade to the Giants for Rivers (who NYG took 4th). The trade included Nate Kaeding and a pick that turned into Shawne Merriman.

That happened after Brees' 3rd year, when his production got even worse from the 2nd year, YPA 5.9 and more INTs than TDs. So it was very reasonable to draft a QB that year.

Brees then had a great 4th year and a very good 5th year, before hurting his throwing shoulder. There was concern he'd never be the same again. Brees probably stays in San Diego (and Rivers gets traded) without that injury.


I understand it was reasonable to draft a QB, just like it could be for MN in 2014. Though the point i was making was if SD was showed more willingness and patience after year 3, perhaps they would have won a super bowl with Brees. This may be the same circumstance that MN faces after this season, or maybe not. To this point, Ponder is very similar from a production standpoint as Brees was through two years. Both had comparable RB situations, though Brees situation was more ideal since Tomlinson was probably the best receiving back this league has seen, or top 2 if you consider Marshall Faulk.

Early on, Brees leaned heavily on Tomlinson in the short area passing game. Just like Ponder this year with Harvin.

Brees production took off once Antonio Gates broke out and when they landed Vincent Jackson in 2004.

Perhaps with the additions of Patterson and Jennings, and Rudolph breaking out, Ponder can see the same jump that Brees did as a more complete passer.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:


I understand it was reasonable to draft a QB, just like it could be for MN in 2014. Though the point i was making was if SD was showed more willingness and patience after year 3, perhaps they would have won a super bowl with Brees. This may be the same circumstance that MN faces after this season, or maybe not. To this point, Ponder is very similar from a production standpoint as Brees was through two years. Both had comparable RB situations, though Brees situation was more ideal since Tomlinson was probably the best receiving back this league has seen, or top 2 if you consider Marshall Faulk.


Yeah, I'm agreeing with you. They did give him the 4th-5th years and he played great as the team improved. They never really give up on him, were planning to keep him as the starter even though Rivers looked like the real thing. The shoulder injury was legitimately career threatening and it happened right before his rookie contract expired. No one offered him more than backup money for his second contract because it was seen as too big a risk.

I've been predicting all along that the Vikings will draft a QB in the first 2-3 rounds this year, but Ponder will start in 2014 at least. Hopefully he does well enough this year that they can take a developmental QB instead of forcing the issue by trading into the top 5 (or god help us, being there already). Ponder plays 2014 and splits time with the new guy in '15 unless one or the other is clearly the better option by that point. If Ponder has finally developed by then he'll deserve an extension, if not, he's released unless he wants to stay with the team for backup money. If Ponder's the established starter from 2015 onward, the new guy stays as the backup and acts as trade bait.
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TearsOfPurple


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder what the Chargers fans thought of Brees his first 3 years. Did he stand well in the pocket? Footwork? Reading a defense?
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VikesGuy07


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:

Early on, Brees leaned heavily on Tomlinson in the short area passing game. Just like Ponder this year with Harvin.

Brees production took off once Antonio Gates broke out and when they landed Vincent Jackson in 2004.

Perhaps with the additions of Patterson and Jennings, and Rudolph breaking out, Ponder can see the same jump that Brees did as a more complete passer.


I'm going to disgaree with you here a bit.

In 2002, Brees' second year in the league, he threw 52% (52/100) on passes 11-20 yards down field, and 46.9% (15/32) on passes 21-30 yards.

Ponder's numbers in 2012, his second year in the league: 46.3% (44/95) on 11-20 yards, and 21.7% (5/23) on passes 21-30 yards down field.

Those numbers from Ponder scare me. I've mentioned numerous times how important the intermediate passing game is in today's NFL, and Ponder's completion numbers at that distance are abysmal. Your QB HAS to be able to convert 3rd and longs on a relatively consistent basis, and he hasn't shown that ability.

Was Brees lighting up the league at that point? No. But he was showing SOME ability to pick up big chunks of yardage when needed. Also of note: Brees' only action as a rookie came in the second half of a November game in 2001, so he had less experience going into 2002 than Ponder did going into 2012.

Here's a fun fact too: In 2004, really the first year people started totally believing in Brees, he was hitting 62.5% of his passes 11-20 yards, and 44.7% from 21-30. Since then, he's been basically at or above 60% and 40% in each respective distance almost every season since.
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you want to put all the blame on Ponder for the lack of a mid to long range passing attack, then go for it, but do realize its a team game.

The coach has to call the play, the Oline has to block, the RB/FB need to pick up their assignment blocking (or go out for a pass), and the receivers need to get separation down the field and catch the ball.

Thats why I don't put all the blame on Ponder, but at the same time, I won't make excuses for him either. We must be more effective at the the mid-long passes. Everyone has to do their part.
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CriminalMind


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PostPosted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 6:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with UB, I would want to bet on the Long Straddle Stock Option for Ponder. Hope that pays off
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Uncle Buck


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is a ranking of the league's 32 starting QBs. The list was created by Gregg Rosenthal and published on the NFL's web site. He has Christian ranked about where I'd have him too, but I have to wonder how much stock you can put into the opinions of a guy who spells the name "Greg" with two "G's".

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000237909/article/the-quarterback-index-ranking-the-starters-132
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Uncle Buck wrote:
Here is a ranking of the league's 32 starting QBs. The list was created by Gregg Rosenthal and published on the NFL's web site. He has Christian ranked about where I'd have him too, but I have to wonder how much stock you can put into the opinions of a guy who spells the name "Greg" with two "G's".

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000237909/article/the-quarterback-index-ranking-the-starters-132


I prefer 'Gregg' spelled with three 'g's.

Rankings from 1-32 are misleading because the scale runs 32 units, whereas the separation of QBs from top to bottom is much tighter in terms of total performance. Think of a Normal curve distribution with 5 groups, A, B, C, D, and F, just like grades you received in school, rather than a uniform distribution spread out 16 units in both directions.

The author had the right idea of grouping the QBs into categories similar to letter grades A-D, F, but failed when he used digits 1-32.

Ponder may or many not belong in the last group. With an improved corp of receivers, including a healthy TE Carlson, Ponder may move up in letter grade group this season.

- Purplexingg.
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PupNsuds


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 03, 2013 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey guys first time poster here! Been reading the forum for a little bit and decided to get involved.

As for Ponder I've been optimistic with the guy for the past two years, but this year its make it or break it. He's gotta show consistent strides of being a competent quarterback. Keyword there being consistent. Showing he can throw a good deep ball once a game and coming back with sloppy passes just isn't going to cut it. That list above is a real good testament too. The guy has an injured rookie quarterback above Ponder at this point. That's not a good sign.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PupNsuds wrote:
Hey guys first time poster here! Been reading the forum for a little bit and decided to get involved.

welcome aboard!

Applause
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