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Fantasy outlook for the Ravens
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BaltimoreTerp


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Joined: 13 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
BaltimoreTerp wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
BaltimoreTerp wrote:
Less carries for Rice is going to be a good thing for his fantasy outlook in certain ways. He's slimmed down and more explosive than he was last year when he was super bulked up trying to be a bruiser lone back, so the big play threat is more there than it has been in the recent past. And he's going to be utilized a ton in the passing game both out of the backfield and also as a slot receiver, and should see his yards-per-carry go up a bit as well as he's not going to be exhausting himself in the trenches all game long.


I haven't seen any of this so-called explosiveness you keep eluding to.

Yes, I'm well aware of his threat in the passing game, but as of now that's it. He's no longer a huge running threat because I don't see that elusiveness and explosion he used to have.


And if he hasn't been busting them out yet 2 preseason games and 11 carries in, he's definitely never going to get there!


Explosiveness and Elusiveness is something you can see whether it's preseason or the Superbowl, and he just doesn't have it.


Right, because game shape has nothing to do with anything. If Torrey Smith doesn't bust one huge play today then we could say the same thing about him not looking 'explosive.'

And honestly the elusiveness has always been there, and he's even shown it a bit in his incredibly small amount of play so far through two preseason games. He can still wiggle around defenders using his low center of gravity, he was still doing that even last playoffs when his fumbling was otherwise making him enemy of the state It's moreso the explosion that was tampered down a bit last year. And maybe it won't come all the way back to what it was in say, 2009, given he's older now, but I do think he's going to be fresher and in more of a position to make bigger plays. It's not like he turned into TJ Duckett.

But by all means, let's just stick a fork in him because it's mid-August and you haven't seen him turn the big play yet.
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BaltimoreTerp wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
BaltimoreTerp wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
BaltimoreTerp wrote:
Less carries for Rice is going to be a good thing for his fantasy outlook in certain ways. He's slimmed down and more explosive than he was last year when he was super bulked up trying to be a bruiser lone back, so the big play threat is more there than it has been in the recent past. And he's going to be utilized a ton in the passing game both out of the backfield and also as a slot receiver, and should see his yards-per-carry go up a bit as well as he's not going to be exhausting himself in the trenches all game long.


I haven't seen any of this so-called explosiveness you keep eluding to.

Yes, I'm well aware of his threat in the passing game, but as of now that's it. He's no longer a huge running threat because I don't see that elusiveness and explosion he used to have.


And if he hasn't been busting them out yet 2 preseason games and 11 carries in, he's definitely never going to get there!


Explosiveness and Elusiveness is something you can see whether it's preseason or the Superbowl, and he just doesn't have it.


Right, because game shape has nothing to do with anything. If Torrey Smith doesn't bust one huge play today then we could say the same thing about him not looking 'explosive.'

And honestly the elusiveness has always been there, and he's even shown it a bit in his incredibly small amount of play so far through two preseason games. It's moreso the explosion that was tampered down a bit last year.

But by all means, let's just stick a fork in him because it's mid-August and you haven't seen him turn the big play yet.


I'm not just judging from his carries, either. You can see his lack of explosion and elusiveness when catching passes, too.

But yeah, by all means believe the hype that since he's slimmed down and shown no signs of it, he's regained his elusiveness and explosion that he lost last year...I mean heck, if he does then good for him, but I just don't see it, unless he's purposely playing like this just to take things slow and pace himself..but idk
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coordinator0


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
As for defense - Defense is all about matchups. I picked a different I think every week last year because if someone was playing the Jets or the Chiefs, I would pick up their defense and ride them for tremendous points while others sat on the 49ers all year long. Worked out very well in the end for me.


That's not a strategy you can use in every league. A lot has to do with how many teams there are. If it's a larger one, like 12+, it's hard to cycle through defenses because there generally aren't that many good ones left in free agency. A bad defense going against a bad offense isn't going to work out well for either side. Most people don't carry more than 1 D/ST on their rosters but some do and that cuts into the quality of depth in the free agent pool even more. With that said I don't think a D/ST is going to make or break your season and I usually wait until the last couple of rounds to take one (unless there isn't somebody at another position left that I'm impressed with) but owning a good one isn't a bad thing either. Good defense are going have more good matchups. That's all there is to it. And when your league uses a free agent auction style of waivers saving that budget by not using it to cycle through D/ST really matters. But like I said before, it all depends on your league.

As for Rice, even without his explosiveness last season he still managed to get a lot of fantasy points. I don't expect him to be worse at all this season and like I mentioned in my earlier post I'm not buying into Pierce causing his fantasy value to significantly slip either. Caldwell over Cameron is a plus for everybody.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 3:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rice is definitely more explosive this season over last. Tbqh the difference looks pretty noticeable to me. You could see it with that one hand catch he made last game against the Bucs, as well as a few runs in that game. Against the Falcons he got hit in the backfield upon receiving the handoff like three times, its hard to show explosiveness when you're hit as you touch the ball. This game really wasn't a good indicator. He's not prime explosive, but he's definitely not bulked down like last year, he's moving around much better this season.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 3:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In terms of the stat expectations, I think Torrey puts up something like:
1100+ yds, 9 TDs, 65 recs....

That said, I'm starting to get a feeling that he might even be better than that. Honestly with the route diversification and using different motions to scheme receivers open/free releases, it wouldn't surprise me if Smith puts up Torry Holt type numbers... 80+ recs, 1300+ yds.

But I suppose part of the equation will be our other receiving options and if they can present enough ability to keep defense from double teaming him all game. But in man2man, I don't think he's going to be stopped.
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RAVINGMADD


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 7:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
McGahee wrote:
Thanks guys, I appreciate all the responses.

Would you take Rice over and of the following RB: Spiller, McCoy, Richardson, Charles, Martin?


Spiller: no
McCoy: NO
Richardson: No
Charles: Depends on his injuries, but no.
Martin: Eh, I think I would, actually. I don't believe the DM hype.

Well you better start believing in him. He's a younger, thicker Ray Rice with a better OL and no serious competition for carries. The only RB I'd take over DM is maybe Peterson and I'm not even sure I would because I'm not sure he can match what he did last year and he isn't going to catch nearly as many passes. I don't know how anyone in there right mind would take Jamal Charles over Rice or DM. Charles will most likely be injured at some point. I feel like the short thick guys like Rice and DM are the way to go when it comes to durability.
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sp6488


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In addition to Rice being leaner this season I think that the departure of Cam may help him as much as it helps Flacco. We are all aware of Cam's occasional refusal to run the ball with our probowl RB, but what doesn't get discussed as much is how after several weeks of ignoring Rice/Pierce, it seemed like Cam would respond by saying "you want me to run the ball? I'll show you running the ball!" and run rice 3 times in a row on a few series almost seemingly to prove that his way worked when this would inevitably fail.

Also, I know some here are high on BP (turning your back too quickly on RR IMO), but I doubt the coaching staff or FO wants to hitch their wagon to him at this point. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy and think he's a beast. I'm a Terps alum, I saw him steamroll us in his last season at Temple. He's just too fragile to rely on as a feature back at this point without someone behind him (and they're not paying Rice to be the change of pace back), especially considering his running style.

Anyway, as others have mentioned, I could see Ray Rice losing some number of carries, maybe down to the 225 or 230 number (least since his rookie year), but I also see his YPC taking a jump to around 5.0. Additionally, I think he may flirt with 80 catches this season (at least 70). Still worth a first rounder in any and all formats.
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marktheshark


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Will Jacoby Jones still be returning for you guys, if not who?
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Mancunian Raven


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

marktheshark wrote:
Will Jacoby Jones still be returning for you guys, if not who?


My guess is that Jones will still be returning. Especially if he continues to be as lacklustre in the WR role as he has been.

But if not him, then perhaps Deonte Thompson, or David Reed if he makes the roster. Asa Jackson has impressed with his kick returning, but he's suspended for eight weeks, so I doubt he gets much of an opportunity.
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McGahee


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 19, 2013 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Would you take Rice over any of Martin, Spiller, McCoy or Charles?
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGahee wrote:
Would you take Rice over any of Martin, Spiller, McCoy or Charles?

I would, yes.

I like Charles and Rice quite similarly. I actually like Charles a little more tbqh... but he has an injury history and isn't as durable as Rice. And durability is important in building a team. Especially if I'm selecting a high round player, I'd hope that I can depend on that guy to be a cog in my operations and not just some inconsistent and/or non-durable option.

McCoy, well he's in a new offense. I don't know what to expect with a new coach there. And even with how talented Shady is, a new coach doesn't have to have any kind of loyalty to him. Bryce Brown is also a talent, there's no telling how much Shady will be featured. Sure he'll be a top option, but again, I'm wary of his stability under new circumstances.

Martin should definitely get plenty of opportunities, but with a lifetime toe injury to Nicks there's no telling how much he and by extension that line might regress. There's also always sophomore slumps to watch out for. That said, if I had to pick a guy over Rice, it would be him. He plays in a division that hasn't put forth the most dominant run defenses we've seen.

And lastly we've got Spiller. He's another guy that I'm not convinced of his frame and durability. I'm also not sure how many carriers Fred Jackson will receive.

Truth be told though, I'd have them all ranked quite similarly.
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Mancunian Raven


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGahee wrote:
Would you take Rice over any of Martin, Spiller, McCoy or Charles?


I'd take him over McCoy and Charles. Not so sure about Martin, because it's hard to say how he'll do in his second year, but the Bucs will run a lot of offense through him.

As for Spiller, he's been my man-crush for the last year or so now, so I think I would take him ahead of Ray Rice. But if I was down to pick, needed a RB and Rice was on the board, I'm not sure that sentiment wouldn't overtake me and I'd grab him.
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coordinator0


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGahee wrote:
Would you take Rice over any of Martin, Spiller, McCoy or Charles?


Martin - That's a tough one. Tampa Bay will be getting both Nicks and Joseph back so that should be a huge improvement on the interior OL. Of course I think Baltimore's own guard tandem of Osemele and Yanda is pretty beastly so that might be a push in terms of OL. The Buccaneers have more weapons outside but they have the likes of Freeman or Glennon throwing the ball too. I'd say Rice and Martin are pretty much equal. You can't go wrong with either of them.

Spiller - Man I don't know. I just have a hard time trusting him for some reason. The Bills lost Levitre too. I put a lot of stock into who's blocking for RBs that aren't at an elite level (only Peterson comes to mind currently, and look what happened to Chris Johnson when Tennessee's OL went down-hill) and I don't like what I see in Buffalo. Add in Fred Jackson potentially getting a lot of carries and that adds up to me not taking Spiller.

McCoy - I like McCoy. Not more than Rice though. In my opinion McCoy's 2010 season represents his "real" self. I doubt he gets anywhere near the TD total he put up in 2011 but I bet he's going to be better than last season too. I'd take McCoy near the end of the first/top of the second round in a 10-12 team snake draft. Rice is more of a top 5ish option for me.

Charles - No. He's the guy I'm most worried about in terms of injury concerns. Too risky for me to invest a high pick or spend a lot of an auction budget on. The possibility of a big-time fantasy season is definitely there but I wouldn't bet on him where he's likely going to go or cost.

Here's how I'd rank them:

1a. Rice
1b. Martin
3. McCoy
4. Charles
5. Spiller

For what it's worth the only guys I'd definitely take over Rice are Peterson, Foster, and Lynch.
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McGahee


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've traded up to the 3rd pick so I don't need to look into Ray Rice. But I do have some questions about Torrey Smith, and now that it's been 3 games into pre-season I'd like to revisit them.

Would you take Torrey Smith over James Jones, Jordy Nelson, Erick Decker, Gronk?

Is he going to be a legit #2 fantasy WR or is he going to have a solid but unspectacular 70-1000-8 type year?
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McGahee


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hey guys, just got a blockbuster trade offer in my league, let me know what you think about it seeing as you probably know more about Ray Rice

0.5 PPR, 10 team

Offered:
Dez Bryant
Ray Rice

For:
Rob Gronkowski
Jordy Nelson


My team:
QB: Brees
RB: Foster, CJ2K, Gio Bernard, David Wilson
WR: Jordy Nelson, Cecil Shorts, Stevie, Tavon Austin
TE: Gronk, Orange Julius, Jared Cook

Why I'm thinking I should pull the trigger:
-Give up a crippled Gronk, still have OJ at TE
-Rice and Dez went 10th and 11th in draft, I took Gronk and Nelson in the 5th and 6th round
-Buying low on Dez and Rice
-Can trade away CJ2K for a WR

Why I don't want to pull the trigger:
-I had Gronk last season and a healthy Gronk wins you games, he can put up 20-30 pts in some games and dominate. Plus Brady will lock in on him.
-Rice and Dez both injured
-Jordy has been phenomenal so far


What do you guys think?
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