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49ers trade QB Alex Smith to Chiefs for 2nd rounder, another
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Mongo


Joined: 17 Nov 2004
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2013 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rumless wrote:
Mongo wrote:
DT58_lives_on wrote:
But you can't know how things would have panned out if we'd have kept our pick. EVEN IF we passed on a QB at 1 overall, don't you think some other teams might have jumped to get ahead...us trading for A. Smith drastically shaped how the draft played out in my opinion.

But hey I get it, I would still rather have A LOT of other players with the 2nd round pick we traded for Mike Vrabel.

That's my point. I'm greedy, that's all.

Can't we all agree that Alex Smith sucks-until-proven-good or Alex Smith is good-until-proven-sucky?

That's like debating that a coin toss could end up heads or tails. I think we all agree with that statement.

Besides, I haven't heard anyone say Alex Smith sucks. I don't feel that way.
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Mongo


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2013 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bigschmadt00 wrote:
Mongo wrote:

Mods: Sorry, but my opinions trivialized to ďincoherent ramblingĒ is a personal insult. You didn't act, so I did.

I'm sorry, but I'm not sure what you're apologizing for. Taking it as a personal insult maybe, idk. Is responding to an "insult" with the same trivial type of response really the right answer? If I feel someone is insulting me, I generally realize that anything I say is going to do nothing but garner more "insults."

I still have no idea why we're discussing this with such fervor. Opinions have been stated, there's no new ground being forged, and likely won't be on this topic for at least another 5 months. Agree to disagree and lets try and find something new to discuss.

Good point. Unfortunately, I'm a sucker for a good debate. Also, my other cheek doesn't always turn as well as I'd like.

There's nothing else to really discuss that's any fun, right now.
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ArrowheadRage58


Joined: 31 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2013 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mongo wrote:


Let me put to you this way. Suppose, you need a new car desperately. Your old one was totaled. Tomorrow you buy a Ford Focus for $250K, because you really like it and it solves your problem. After 15 years of excellent service you look back. The car never broke down once. You put 500,000 miles on it. Was it worth the $250K? No, because you should have been able to get a Focus for much cheaper and still enjoyed the 15 years of service.

Thatís NFL business 101.


Ford Fucus's grow on trees, anybody can get one. NFL QB's do not...all roads drive pretty much the same, NFL offenses are different. A Focus does not have potential to perform like a Camaro (unless you cheat and use performance enhancers), but a QB like Alex Smith might be capable of performing like a Camaro in a different offense.

Coaches view players differently and if things were different and there was no Kaep and the 49ers D went on decline, we would almost for sure see Harbaugh change the offense and let Alex do more with all the weapons they've been adding. When Harb's got there, there wasn't as much to work with as most people think, so conservative was alright. In another offense, Alex clearly has the potential to morph from a Focus to a Camaro...just as long as nobody is expecting him to be a Ferrari or a Drew Brees.

Also worth considering is after the Cassel debacle and the 20 years without a QB (except Green), the new regime HAD to solve the QB dilemma....with the rookie class underwhelming, they felt it was better to possibly overpay for a proven starter than to reach on a rookie who potentially may be nothing. Much better now that I think of it, cuz now the option is still there to draft a QB high next year. Regardless, they pretty much had to "reach" for a QB, no matter where they got him.
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bpinsky33


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
Mongo wrote:


Let me put to you this way. Suppose, you need a new car desperately. Your old one was totaled. Tomorrow you buy a Ford Focus for $250K, because you really like it and it solves your problem. After 15 years of excellent service you look back. The car never broke down once. You put 500,000 miles on it. Was it worth the $250K? No, because you should have been able to get a Focus for much cheaper and still enjoyed the 15 years of service.

Thatís NFL business 101.


Ford Fucus's grow on trees, anybody can get one. NFL QB's do not...all roads drive pretty much the same, NFL offenses are different. A Focus does not have potential to perform like a Camaro (unless you cheat and use performance enhancers), but a QB like Alex Smith might be capable of performing like a Camaro in a different offense.

Coaches view players differently and if things were different and there was no Kaep and the 49ers D went on decline, we would almost for sure see Harbaugh change the offense and let Alex do more with all the weapons they've been adding. When Harb's got there, there wasn't as much to work with as most people think, so conservative was alright. In another offense, Alex clearly has the potential to morph from a Focus to a Camaro...just as long as nobody is expecting him to be a Ferrari or a Drew Brees.

Also worth considering is after the Cassel debacle and the 20 years without a QB (except Green), the new regime HAD to solve the QB dilemma....with the rookie class underwhelming, they felt it was better to possibly overpay for a proven starter than to reach on a rookie who potentially may be nothing. Much better now that I think of it, cuz now the option is still there to draft a QB high next year. Regardless, they pretty much had to "reach" for a QB, no matter where they got him.


I think the Ford Focus comparison was over the top. A better example is buying a house. For those of you who aren't married you might not get the analogy.

We decide we need to buy a house. During the months of looking you have found (and liked) a couple of houses, but the price seemed a little high and you couldn't come up with a price you felt comfortable with. Finally you want into a house that your wife LOVES, it is her dream house. Sure it would be nice to have bigger closets and a bigger backyard, but it is in the perfect neighborhood and the wife loves it. You decide you are going to put in an offer and you agent tells you. "There is a lot of interest in this house, they have already fielded 3 offers and they will make their decision after the weekend.

Now the asking price is $350,000.
How much do you offer? A lot depends on the type of person you are, if you are only interested in the deal you are going to miss out. If you are interested in making sure you get the best house on the market for you then you are going to go out and get it. Most guys will tell that if you can afford it and the wife LOVES it, then screw the deal because a bad deal makes your life unhappy for a couple days. An unhappy wife makes your life miserable forever.

So what happens regularly is that someone comes in at about 5-10% over the asking price (so $385,000). Did the person overpay for the house or did they pay what the market was dictating?

The reason why the Ford example doesn't work is because Ford placed a value on the Focus (MSRP) in only rare cases do cars sell for over the MSPR and those are the cases where the demand is low (Nissan GTR). NFL trades are like buying a house, they are big decisions, you are bidding against unnamed bidders and you don't know what is being offerd (you and only speculate). So if you have a player who is going to be perfect then you go out and pay the most that you can swallow to ensure you can get him...Otherwise you could miss out and really put yourself in a bind.
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Mongo


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
Mongo wrote:


Let me put to you this way. Suppose, you need a new car desperately. Your old one was totaled. Tomorrow you buy a Ford Focus for $250K, because you really like it and it solves your problem. After 15 years of excellent service you look back. The car never broke down once. You put 500,000 miles on it. Was it worth the $250K? No, because you should have been able to get a Focus for much cheaper and still enjoyed the 15 years of service.

Thatís NFL business 101.


Ford Fucus's grow on trees, anybody can get one. NFL QB's do not...all roads drive pretty much the same, NFL offenses are different. A Focus does not have potential to perform like a Camaro (unless you cheat and use performance enhancers), but a QB like Alex Smith might be capable of performing like a Camaro in a different offense.

Coaches view players differently and if things were different and there was no Kaep and the 49ers D went on decline, we would almost for sure see Harbaugh change the offense and let Alex do more with all the weapons they've been adding. When Harb's got there, there wasn't as much to work with as most people think, so conservative was alright. In another offense, Alex clearly has the potential to morph from a Focus to a Camaro...just as long as nobody is expecting him to be a Ferrari or a Drew Brees.

Also worth considering is after the Cassel debacle and the 20 years without a QB (except Green), the new regime HAD to solve the QB dilemma....with the rookie class underwhelming, they felt it was better to possibly overpay for a proven starter than to reach on a rookie who potentially may be nothing. Much better now that I think of it, cuz now the option is still there to draft a QB high next year. Regardless, they pretty much had to "reach" for a QB, no matter where they got him.

Geez, the Focus analogy was an exaggerated example to explain a point.

I will concede the Chiefs felt a need to immediately address the QB position and did so. They could have accomplished cheaper by bluffing a bit. The ogled Smith from day one. There was seemingly no other alternative even introduced as a bluff.
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ArrowheadRage58


Joined: 31 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bpinsky33 wrote:
ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
Mongo wrote:


Let me put to you this way. Suppose, you need a new car desperately. Your old one was totaled. Tomorrow you buy a Ford Focus for $250K, because you really like it and it solves your problem. After 15 years of excellent service you look back. The car never broke down once. You put 500,000 miles on it. Was it worth the $250K? No, because you should have been able to get a Focus for much cheaper and still enjoyed the 15 years of service.

Thatís NFL business 101.


Ford Fucus's grow on trees, anybody can get one. NFL QB's do not...all roads drive pretty much the same, NFL offenses are different. A Focus does not have potential to perform like a Camaro (unless you cheat and use performance enhancers), but a QB like Alex Smith might be capable of performing like a Camaro in a different offense.

Coaches view players differently and if things were different and there was no Kaep and the 49ers D went on decline, we would almost for sure see Harbaugh change the offense and let Alex do more with all the weapons they've been adding. When Harb's got there, there wasn't as much to work with as most people think, so conservative was alright. In another offense, Alex clearly has the potential to morph from a Focus to a Camaro...just as long as nobody is expecting him to be a Ferrari or a Drew Brees.

Also worth considering is after the Cassel debacle and the 20 years without a QB (except Green), the new regime HAD to solve the QB dilemma....with the rookie class underwhelming, they felt it was better to possibly overpay for a proven starter than to reach on a rookie who potentially may be nothing. Much better now that I think of it, cuz now the option is still there to draft a QB high next year. Regardless, they pretty much had to "reach" for a QB, no matter where they got him.


I think the Ford Focus comparison was over the top. A better example is buying a house. For those of you who aren't married you might not get the analogy.

We decide we need to buy a house. During the months of looking you have found (and liked) a couple of houses, but the price seemed a little high and you couldn't come up with a price you felt comfortable with. Finally you want into a house that your wife LOVES, it is her dream house. Sure it would be nice to have bigger closets and a bigger backyard, but it is in the perfect neighborhood and the wife loves it. You decide you are going to put in an offer and you agent tells you. "There is a lot of interest in this house, they have already fielded 3 offers and they will make their decision after the weekend.

Now the asking price is $350,000.
How much do you offer? A lot depends on the type of person you are, if you are only interested in the deal you are going to miss out. If you are interested in making sure you get the best house on the market for you then you are going to go out and get it. Most guys will tell that if you can afford it and the wife LOVES it, then screw the deal because a bad deal makes your life unhappy for a couple days. An unhappy wife makes your life miserable forever.

So what happens regularly is that someone comes in at about 5-10% over the asking price (so $385,000). Did the person overpay for the house or did they pay what the market was dictating?

The reason why the Ford example doesn't work is because Ford placed a value on the Focus (MSRP) in only rare cases do cars sell for over the MSPR and those are the cases where the demand is low (Nissan GTR). NFL trades are like buying a house, they are big decisions, you are bidding against unnamed bidders and you don't know what is being offerd (you and only speculate). So if you have a player who is going to be perfect then you go out and pay the most that you can swallow to ensure you can get him...Otherwise you could miss out and really put yourself in a bind.


Yeah, that's pretty good. There's still the variable that a human being can improve/change/learn or be a better player than most thought, maybe Reid saw that possibility in his offense. A house or a car don't improve by themselves or exceed performance expectations. They are what they are.
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marnz


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

this is pretty dumb conversation if we get to the playoffs and wina couple under alex it was a good trade if he doesnt make the playoffs then it was a bad one

/conversation and your welcome
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Mongo


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

marnz wrote:
this is pretty dumb conversation if we get to the playoffs and wina couple under alex it was a good trade if he doesnt make the playoffs then it was a bad one

/conversation and your welcome

What if we win a few playoff games but he is mediocre and holds us back from a Super Bowl? Or, what if we suck but he plays brilliantly? And is that limited to this season alone? What if we suck this year, but win two playoff games next year? What if we make the playoffs without Smith because he is injured? What if Martians invade the Earth, destroy every other NFL team but the Chiefs and they are awarded a Super Bowl by default?

If this topic is "dumb", it seems to me your simple measure of success is right at home amongst itís posts. Hopefully, Clark Hunt holds Reid and Dorsey to higher sets of standards.

PS: We are discussing whether the trade represented good value, not whether acquiring Alex Smith was a good move or not.

For the record, acquiring Alex Smith was a good move at the time. I donít need a playoff appearance to know that. Whether it pans out or not is another story. Ultimately, this move will get its final grade 3 or 4 years down the road.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mongo wrote:

What if we win a few playoff games but he is mediocre and holds us back from a Super Bowl? Or, what if we suck but he plays brilliantly?


One thing that's been pretty clear about Alex.. is that he will do his job. Can he overcome a team full of failures outside of his control? Only if the score is reasonably close, when regarding game clock remaining, perhaps. But if the Chiefs have a fairly strong team and can do their jobs adequately? (sure, there will be some mistakes, we are not talking about flawless play from everyone) Then Alex is good enough to win Super Bowls for the team.
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marnz


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mongo wrote:
marnz wrote:
this is pretty dumb conversation if we get to the playoffs and wina couple under alex it was a good trade if he doesnt make the playoffs then it was a bad one

/conversation and your welcome

What if we win a few playoff games but he is mediocre and holds us back from a Super Bowl? Or, what if we suck but he plays brilliantly? And is that limited to this season alone? What if we suck this year, but win two playoff games next year? What if we make the playoffs without Smith because he is injured? What if Martians invade the Earth, destroy every other NFL team but the Chiefs and they are awarded a Super Bowl by default?

If this topic is "dumb", it seems to me your simple measure of success is right at home amongst itís posts. Hopefully, Clark Hunt holds Reid and Dorsey to higher sets of standards.

PS: We are discussing whether the trade represented good value, not whether acquiring Alex Smith was a good move or not.

For the record, acquiring Alex Smith was a good move at the time. I donít need a playoff appearance to know that. Whether it pans out or not is another story. Ultimately, this move will get its final grade 3 or 4 years down the road.



did i miss something?

we were 2-14 with first overall pick this past year were we not?


and for value that depends on what he brings in the future

by your reasoning there is not such thing as a bust pick then because it was "justifiable to select any player" It doesnt work like that you earn your value your value is not predetermined it may look like a team has payed too much or too little over time but if it leads to wins then ultimately it was either worth it or not
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2013 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A very long and worthwhile article here... fairly critical, yet also complimentary of Smith.. and this part is exactly what I came to understand.

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/7/31/4561592/alex-smith-preview-for-2013-is-he-ready-for-the-challenge-all-22-film

Quote:
Harbaugh came in and taught Alex to play safe football. This is well-documented. Alex was told that sacks are better than INTs, and a dump off on 3rd and 8 that picks up 5 yards is better than "forcing" something for a potential first down. This is the SAME WAY Harbaugh played football back in his days as a QB. Harbaugh knows it can work, and can win games, but he also knows it has its limits. In my opinion, this is precisely why Alex was so confused over the QB take-over. Because Kaepernick was going out there and taking risks and just playing football. The 49ers have a good enough TEAM that they can afford a QB to do that. It wasn't like the 2011 squad, where Alex's safe play was, really, the only way to win a game. Alex said, "I feel like the only thing I did to lose my job was get a concussion." In other words, Harbaugh never came up to Alex, at any point, and said, "Hey, we like the safe play... but we REALLY need you to take more deep shots." The truth is that... the SF offense was never really Alex's offense. Even when Harbaugh told him it was, that was likely a lie. The truth is that Harbaugh has been building this offense with Kaep in mind from the start; and he has been waiting, itching, CRAVING the day to put HIS GUY in. The Smith Era was ALWAYS MEANT to end, regardless of what Harbaugh might have said to Smith. Reid knows this -- which is why he keeps reiterating that he is going to let Alex "open things up" and "pull the trigger." Reid believes in Alex, I think; even more than Harbaugh did. Harbaugh simultaneously nurtured Alex in to a winning player while also holding him back. It's an odd paradox.

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Arrowhead86


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
A very long and worthwhile article here... fairly critical, yet also complimentary of Smith.. and this part is exactly what I came to understand.

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/7/31/4561592/alex-smith-preview-for-2013-is-he-ready-for-the-challenge-all-22-film

Quote:
Harbaugh came in and taught Alex to play safe football. This is well-documented. Alex was told that sacks are better than INTs, and a dump off on 3rd and 8 that picks up 5 yards is better than "forcing" something for a potential first down. This is the SAME WAY Harbaugh played football back in his days as a QB. Harbaugh knows it can work, and can win games, but he also knows it has its limits. In my opinion, this is precisely why Alex was so confused over the QB take-over. Because Kaepernick was going out there and taking risks and just playing football. The 49ers have a good enough TEAM that they can afford a QB to do that. It wasn't like the 2011 squad, where Alex's safe play was, really, the only way to win a game. Alex said, "I feel like the only thing I did to lose my job was get a concussion." In other words, Harbaugh never came up to Alex, at any point, and said, "Hey, we like the safe play... but we REALLY need you to take more deep shots." The truth is that... the SF offense was never really Alex's offense. Even when Harbaugh told him it was, that was likely a lie. The truth is that Harbaugh has been building this offense with Kaep in mind from the start; and he has been waiting, itching, CRAVING the day to put HIS GUY in. The Smith Era was ALWAYS MEANT to end, regardless of what Harbaugh might have said to Smith. Reid knows this -- which is why he keeps reiterating that he is going to let Alex "open things up" and "pull the trigger." Reid believes in Alex, I think; even more than Harbaugh did. Harbaugh simultaneously nurtured Alex in to a winning player while also holding him back. It's an odd paradox.


I really enjoyed this article. Good good stuff! I love seeing the all-22 film studies in general on any play or player, but especially Chiefs related.

Side note.. I had NFL game pass last year and will be renewing this year. I highly recommend it! It's awesome.
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DudeWhat??


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2013 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
Mongo wrote:

What if we win a few playoff games but he is mediocre and holds us back from a Super Bowl? Or, what if we suck but he plays brilliantly?


One thing that's been pretty clear about Alex.. is that he will do his job. Can he overcome a team full of failures outside of his control? Only if the score is reasonably close, when regarding game clock remaining, perhaps. But if the Chiefs have a fairly strong team and can do their jobs adequately? (sure, there will be some mistakes, we are not talking about flawless play from everyone) Then Alex is good enough to win Super Bowls for the team.



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ryknowssd


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 07, 2013 2:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^^


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wishbone20


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You have to think that Reid's previous inquires into Smith while with the Eagles drove the price up. I haven't posted much recently but I read every post on my iPhone and was surprised by the amount of displeasure this trade arose in chief fans. A couple second round picks for a proven NFL QB in his prime coming off a 26-28 game. Weeden cost a first... (I get it potential, blah blah)

Reid got his guy and I think that's very important. I remember the success the Eagles had with Garcia that season and I feel as though Jeff is a poor man's Alex. There's been 40+ pages of discussion so I'm not expecting a huge response, just thought I'd go on record as being very excited so I can say told ya so when Alex throws for 4,000 with less than 10 ints.
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