Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 27, 28, 29 ... 98, 99, 100  Next
 
Post new topic   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Minnesota Vikings
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
Posts: 4757
Location: Toronto, CA
PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we're a 9-12 rated QB in the league to be considered a legit contender with the current team makeup and everyone just having an "average-base" year.

I don't know if Ponder can bring us that this year, but to me, this would be his last shot. If it did not work out, I would be willing to move #1+#1 (potentially) to get someone we loved to join this squad minus potentially Jared Allen (another team/retire) & extending Cook/Everson.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
twslhs20


Joined: 28 Feb 2008
Posts: 12155
Location: Where the true depth of one's soul doesn't resonate with the world
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
Krauser wrote:
Even if Ponder eventually fails, and we have to move on, the team will be better for having been developed in this way, and whoever comes in next will do better for it.


MN may just be back in the same spot it has been in for years, too good to land a top pick, often having to rely on veteran stop gaps or drafting lackluster prospects.


my nightmare
_________________

Joe_is_the_best ^^
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Vikefan79


Joined: 05 Apr 2005
Posts: 29761
Location: Atlanta
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 4:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
Krauser wrote:
Even if Ponder eventually fails, and we have to move on, the team will be better for having been developed in this way, and whoever comes in next will do better for it.


MN may just be back in the same spot it has been in for years, too good to land a top pick, often having to rely on veteran stop gaps or drafting lackluster prospects.


Different Owner, GM, and Coach. This franchise has been taken in a new direction. If they want someone they get him.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vikingsrule


Moderator
Joined: 15 Nov 2005
Posts: 47680
Location: Land of 10,000 Lakes!
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 9:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vikefan79 wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:
Krauser wrote:
Even if Ponder eventually fails, and we have to move on, the team will be better for having been developed in this way, and whoever comes in next will do better for it.


MN may just be back in the same spot it has been in for years, too good to land a top pick, often having to rely on veteran stop gaps or drafting lackluster prospects.


Different Owner, GM, and Coach. This franchise has been taken in a new direction. If they want someone they get him.


Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Kellerman


Joined: 16 May 2010
Posts: 3552
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
Vikefan79 wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:
Krauser wrote:
Even if Ponder eventually fails, and we have to move on, the team will be better for having been developed in this way, and whoever comes in next will do better for it.


MN may just be back in the same spot it has been in for years, too good to land a top pick, often having to rely on veteran stop gaps or drafting lackluster prospects.


Different Owner, GM, and Coach. This franchise has been taken in a new direction. If they want someone they get him.


Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement.


I'll go one further than that, I think it's very unlikely the Vikings move on from Ponder next year. He's still under contract for the 2014 season, no reason to move on just yet.

Some might not like that approach, but I can't see Spielman going ''all-in'' to draft a QB in the top 10. If this team is even half-way decent in 2013, which I think it will be, the Vikings will be waaay out of range of any 'certain' QB prospect.

Realistically, the only way the Vikings are getting a new QB in the next few years are if a. Ponder regresses next season, b. if a talented QB falls to the late 1st, and if he's BPA by a big margin.
_________________

#97 Everson Griffin: 27 tackles : 5.5 sacks : 1 FF ; 16 games played
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
Posts: 4443
Location: Outside Valhalla, looking in.
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:

Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement.


The Vikings are in a position to replace Ponder, if need be, now that nearly every roster spot for a starter has been filled with quality yutes.

I see remaining after 2013 the following possible upgrades, other than QB:

LG, MLB, DE, S: if things don't work out in 2013 as Spielman hopes.

RB#2, WR#5, TE#3: aren't needs that require a high draft pick. Could sign these role players in FA.

So, only DE or MLB may need an upgrade in 2014 which requires using top draft picks. Hopefully, both won't be needed in 2014.

So, if Ponder fails in 2013, Minnesota will probably have enough draft picks to trade up for a top prospect, or could trade a 2015 pick to move up.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
Posts: 4443
Location: Outside Valhalla, looking in.
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kellerman wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:

Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement.


I'll go one further than that, I think it's very unlikely the Vikings move on from Ponder next year. He's still under contract for the 2014 season, no reason to move on just yet.

Some might not like that approach, but I can't see Spielman going ''all-in'' to draft a QB in the top 10. If this team is even half-way decent in 2013, which I think it will be, the Vikings will be waaay out of range of any 'certain' QB prospect.

Realistically, the only way the Vikings are getting a new QB in the next few years are if a. Ponder regresses next season, b. if a talented QB falls to the late 1st, and if he's BPA by a big margin.


As I said in my post immediately above ^, there may be so few needs left after the rebuilding that has occurred over the last three years to enable the Vikings to make a major move up for a top QB prospect. Why not trade multiple picks when you have so few needs to fill? (e.g. probably only 2 of MLB, DE, and QB.)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vikingsrule


Moderator
Joined: 15 Nov 2005
Posts: 47680
Location: Land of 10,000 Lakes!
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:

Even if it takes a Washington Redskins type trade? That is what I am getting at. MN should have no problem picking in that 14-20 range, regardless of Ponder. Its a mighty big jump to go from that into the top 3.

Raiders gave the Dolphins a gift this past draft, cant expect that every year.

I think playoffs need to be priority for Ponder to show he is capable of leading the team, but i could see scenario play out where the Vikes miss the playoffs and Ponder keeps his job simply because the Vikes arent in position to grab a legit replacement.


The Vikings are in a position to replace Ponder, if need be, now that nearly every roster spot for a starter has been filled with quality yutes.

I see remaining after 2013 the following possible upgrades, other than QB:

LG, MLB, DE, S: if things don't work out in 2013 as Spielman hopes.

RB#2, WR#5, TE#3: aren't needs that require a high draft pick. Could sign these role players in FA.

So, only DE or MLB may need an upgrade in 2014 which requires using top draft picks. Hopefully, both won't be needed in 2014.

So, if Ponder fails in 2013, Minnesota will probably have enough draft picks to trade up for a top prospect, or could trade a 2015 pick to move up.


Youre missing a big hole at DT. Once Floyd takes over for Williams, they still need a one technique DT, a position that wasnt addressed this year. Though this year, Floyd and Williams will probably play one technique at some point during the season, but neither are long-term options at the position.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1779
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We wouldn't necessarily have to trade up to get a good QB. Most of the QBs taken at the top of the draft have been underwhelming. Luck and RG3 are the only QB prospects in the last few years who would've been worth trading up for.

Current starting QBs taken in the top 10, by draft slot and year (* = Super Bowl win):
1. P. Manning* (1998), Vick (2001), E Manning** (2004), Stafford (2009) Bradford (2010), Newton (2011), Luck (2012)
2. RG3 (2012)
3. Ryan (2008)
4. Rivers (2004)
5. Sanchez (2009)
8. Locker (2011), Tannehill (2012)

Only 3 Super Bowl wins across 13 starters, all by the Mannings. 4 of the 13 went to the playoffs in 2012.

And those taken outside the top 10:
11. Roethlisberger** (2004), Cutler (2006)
12. Ponder (2011)
16. Manuel (2013) -- new
17. Freeman (2009)
18. Flacco* (2008)
22. Quinn (2007), Weeden (2012)
24. Rodgers** (2005)
32. Brees* (2001)
35. Dalton (2011)
36. Kaepernick (2011)
57. Henne (2008)
75. Wilson (2012)
90. Schaub (2004)
199. Brady*** (2000)
209. Flynn (2008) -- new
XX. Romo (2003), Hoyer (2009)

9 Super Bowl wins among 19 starters, by Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Flacco and Brees. Those 5 would be widely considered better than most or all of the QBs taken in the top 10. 8 of the 17 who started last year went to the playoffs in 2012.

So where's the evidence that we have to trade up to find a QB to win the Super Bowl? Seems to me that the plan should be to build the best overall team and let the QB position sort itself out.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vikingsrule


Moderator
Joined: 15 Nov 2005
Posts: 47680
Location: Land of 10,000 Lakes!
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ You didnt list the QBs that were complete flops outside the top 10 either. Id guess that your are statistically more likely to find successful Qbs taken in the top 10 versus successful QBs taken outside the top 10.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1779
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Of course there's a selection bias. The point is just that you can find winning QBs later in the draft.

And if we have a top pick and need a QB, we should pull the trigger.

But the question is whether it's worth trading up RG3 style to take a QB. Most of the ones on that top 10 list wouldn't have been worth trading multiple picks for, and some of those who were (P Manning and Luck) wouldn't have been available.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
twslhs20


Joined: 28 Feb 2008
Posts: 12155
Location: Where the true depth of one's soul doesn't resonate with the world
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
So where's the evidence that we have to trade up to find a QB to win the Super Bowl? Seems to me that the plan should be to build the best overall team and let the QB position sort itself out.


First of all your comparing 10 slots to the field. That is a bit unfair in a 250+ player draft.

That's also fine in theory if you want a mediocre QB like Jackson or Ponder. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. When you draft a guy in the first round at QB you are married to that guy for better or worse. If he doesn't succeed? Coaches and GMs lose their jobs. If ponder goes 8-8 I'm sure they will give him another shot, and maybe Frazier is fired. If we get 6 or less wins Frazier and Spielman will get axed. If we make the playoffs and are 1 and done again? Wash, rinse, and repeat mediocrity.

You have to trade up to get your guy, especially with the team that's built now. I'm sick and tired of wasting one of the greatest athletes of all time while waiting around for a QB that competent enough to put us in the SB.

I won't blame Allen when he walks next year if we go .500 and miss the playoffs.
_________________

Joe_is_the_best ^^


Last edited by twslhs20 on Sat May 04, 2013 12:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vikingsrule


Moderator
Joined: 15 Nov 2005
Posts: 47680
Location: Land of 10,000 Lakes!
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
Of course there's a selection bias. The point is just that you can find winning QBs later in the draft.


Its not a selection bias. If a QB is truly a special prospect, they wont leave the top 10. Just the way it is, QB is simply too valuable of a position to get wrong. Of course you can find winning QBS later in the draft, but your more likely to land 20 Spergon Wynn's before you get Tom Brady or Russell Wilson.

Quote:
And if we have a top pick and need a QB, we should pull the trigger.


I agree, if MN has a top pick that means Ponder didnt produce, more pressure will be on Frazier/Spielman to get it right. As long as MN isnt reaching on a QB with that top pick, like they did in 2011, that is the direction to go.

Quote:
But the question is whether it's worth trading up RG3 style to take a QB. Most of the ones on that top 10 list wouldn't have been worth trading multiple picks for, and some of those who were (P Manning and Luck) wouldn't have been available.


Obviously, MN would only pull off this trade for a QB that was worth it like RGIII. Also, if there isnt a worthwhile QB at the top (like this year), teams will trade that top pick for very little compensation (like the Raiders did). Point is, if there is a top notch QB prospect at the top, it will cost a lot more to trade up.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1779
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias

Selection bias meaning that the 19 QBs taken after pick 10 are pulled from a much larger pool than the 13 taken in the top 10, because the ones who didn't make it aren't starting. I'm agreeing with the point that the statistics I presented are distorted in this way.

Aaron Rodgers was a special prospect. Kaepernick was too, in retrospect. The fact that QB is valuable doesn't mean that people don't get it wrong, or else why is Sanchez on the top list.

Having a QB be "worth it" is something that's a lot easier to say after the fact. The point is that you could've been convinced in a lot of those years that Bradford or Vick or Newton or Stafford was "worth it" but they haven't been, so far. RG3 seems "worth it" based on last year, but that might not last if his knee doesn't get put together right.

Meanwhile several QBs who didn't seem "worth it" have rings. Most of them play for perennially good teams (Steelers, Ravens, Packers, Patriots) who aren't inclined to mortgage their futures for one player. I would suggest the Vikings follow that model, not repeat the RG3 trade.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Klomp


Joined: 11 Aug 2011
Posts: 6572
PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ponder, much like Matt Ryan, is a QB devoid of elite arm strength. Much like Ryan, he makes up for it with uncanny accuracy, and the ability to throw from different platforms. Elite ball-handling and play-action are in the repertoire of both of these former ACC QBs. As a matter of fact, the second year for both of these guys are eerily similar.

Matt Ryan in 09: 22 tds, 14 ints 2,916 yards 58.3% completion for an 80.9 rating
Ponder in 2012: 18 tds, 12 ints 2,935 yards 62.5% completion for an 81.2 rating

Surprisingly for a guy that takes a lot of heat from the fans, Ponder in a lot of ways had an even better second season than the much heralded, pro-bowler, Matt Ryan. His completion percentage of almost 63% was a huge improvement over the 54.3% he posted as a rookie. At 62, 230 lbs Ponder is a really good athlete that can extend plays and is a serious threat to bolt the pocket for big run gains. I expect Musgrave to take advantage of this attribute even more in 2013. If Ponders third season mirrors Matt Ryans the Vikings could very much see the Falcons or whoever is in the NFC championship game. I believe Ponder as well as his team is ready for that next step after going 10-6 last season.

http://nflsfuture.com/2013/05/01/the-minnesota-vikings-are-officially-scary/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Minnesota Vikings All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 27, 28, 29 ... 98, 99, 100  Next
Page 28 of 100

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group