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What the last 4 Offseasons Have told Us About Our FO

 
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Tatupu_64


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 8:09 pm    Post subject: What the last 4 Offseasons Have told Us About Our FO Reply with quote

The Mantra of JS and PC



Looking to the Draft

2010
It's hard to gather any real information from the first draft. You could say we drafted need. You could say we drafted BPA. Fact of the matter is, we got pretty lucky/. LT was our biggest need and Okung was the best player on the board. Imo, FS was our 2nd biggest need and Earl was the best player on the board. Tate fell to our pick in the 2nd. He was great value and we were in desperate need of some play-making at WR.



I really think the draft for Seattle is split up by rounds 1-3 and rounds 5-7. Round 4 we tend to draft solid potential starters. Thurmond was high risk because of injury. Chancellor had potential and fantastic size, but wasn't always in the right position or great in coverage in college. Konz, McCoy, and EJ Wilson fit the mold too.

2011
This is where I think we start to get a better indication of our drafting strategy. Carpenter in my estimation was at a position of need in their minds. Moffitt was good perceived value, but also a position of a need.



Wright is that "typical" 4th rounder. He doesn't have premier NFL athleticism, but he looked like he'd be an NFL starter probably. Guys like Sherman, Durham, and Maxwell were big time athletes with little production coming in. Typical Pete and John guys.

2012
Pass rush was a big need. We grabbed Irvin. We also grabbed the guy we thought would be the eventual replacement for Clemons. Wagner was a position of need and also an exceptional talent. Again BPA at position of need. Russell Wilson was the pick in the 3rd. Not only did Schneider see him as the best talent available, but I don't think they were completely set on Flynn at QB. I think this pick boils down to Schneider loving Wilson and the FO wanting to always be a step ahead of guys potential leaving in FA.



Turbin is a "typical" Seattle 4th rounder. A guy who should be an average-above average NFL starter. We needed a backup RB and he was a talented guy. The rest of our picks aside from Scruggs modeled that high risk/reward model pretty well.

2013
We saw a shift in dynamics this year. This is the first year where we had no true holes. I think we saw the truest example of our plan for the future, which I'll expand on in a bit. Michael was someone they said they saw as BPA. Obviously not a position of need unless we're planning for life after 'Shawn. JS specifically said that Hill wasn't the best player on their board, but he was the best player available before a big drop off at UT.



Harper is the post Tate plan, plain and simple. Jesse Williams fills a hole for us. Simon is going to replace Browner in the future imo. Wilson is a typical project late round pick. Great athlete who has high risk/reward. Spencer Ware I think is the future at FB ideally. We finished up the draft with 4 guys who will be projects.

Here's our Draft Strategy Broken Down into Key Points
-We value players at how they fit for our team. A players perceived value league wide isn't important to us. We'll pay someone what they are worth to our team and give up in a trade the value equivalent to what that player would be worth for our team (i.e. See where we took Irvin).

-Seems that OT seems to be a priority where as OG they seem comfortable with drafting in later rounds.

-Rounds 1-3 look to be focused on need with an understanding of BPA

-Round 4 is where we target guys who seem like they have a good chance at being long-term starters with less upside.

-Rounds 5-7 is where we targeted the high risk/reward types.

-UDFA is where John and Pete look for the role players. Baldwin is the only big name, but I believe if you look at the guys we've brought in there, Seattle has brought in blue-collar football players who are unspectacular athletes but know how to play in a niche.

-We drafted position of need BPA in the 1st three rounds. I put it in that order because I believe there's a higher focus on position of need. They look at positions of need and draft the BPA among those positions.

-Cable LOVES his project DL to guard converts. That may become one of our signature moves with this FO.

-We're always planning for the future. We'll pay our elite players, but in the minds of JS and PC, even the good players can be replaced (Tate, Clemons, Browner, Robinson).

Trading and Free Agency
We certainly haven't been gun-shy in trading. I believe they have learned from the Whitehurst trade, but I still believe if they love a prospect or player, they're willing to sacrifice on the perceived value of the trade. I believe the Percy trade showed us we're willing to pay a perceived steep price for a guy we love for our system.



People like to say we sit and wait in Free Agency. I don't believe that's the case. I think we approach FA the same we approach trading. If there's a guy we love, we'll put down the money to go get him.

Predicting the Future and Managing CAP
I believe there are a couple of conclusions we can draw after 4 offseasons with this regime. We have reached the point where we're building to sustain, not just building towards being competitive.

1) The elite players will be paid. We'll see it with Earl, Sherm, and Wilson to be sure. It's already happened with Unger and Kam. I expect it to happen with Okung. The NFL cap only allows you to have so many elite players on your team. We've clearly said we'd rather keep 5-6 elite players and have a supporting cast of young guys on lower salaries rather than trying to pay everybody.

2) The good/great players will be allowed to walk or sign at a discount. Hope for compensation in the form of compensatory picks. We don't have the money to pay good players to stick around when we have elite guys that need to be paid. I believe we'll see Tate, Robinson, Bryant, and Lynch (he's elite right now but I believe you have to look at the shelf life of an NFL RB, namely those who run so physically) leave within the next 2 years if things go as planned.

3) An extension off number 2, always plan at least 1 year into the future. Here's what I mean:
-Wilson was drafted as the future to Flynn.
-Michael is the future after Lynch.
-Ware the future after Robinson.
-Simons is drafted to step in for Browner.
-Bennett imo is who they're hoping to retain instead of Red. Only one of those guys will be here after next year, it'll be whoever performs better this year.
-Avril was brought in since Clem was injured, yes. But more so, Avril was brought in to BE Clem. Clem is getting old, he'll be cut/traded after the year.
-Harper was brought in to replace Tate.
While the rest of the league is playing Chess, we're playing Stratego. We're looking past this year, and a lot of cases past even next year. That's how you continuously keep the best talent on your roster.

4) This isn't baseball. You don't keep a guy around because of what he once did. Hasselbeck was the first showing of this. I believe letting Hass walk was a statement to everyone. It doesn't matter how iconic you are, what matters is what you provide for us moving forward.
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...13 Seahawks one spot over the 08 Steelers

ram29jackson wrote:
LO freaking L...Seahawks aren't repeating crap and you can book that
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clubmember


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 8:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You forgot to mention one thing that is definitely for sure.

We love youth. They must be young. I think we have a sit and wait mantra when it comes to FA, but what we definitely do have is that when it comes to FA, they must be young. Sidney Rice was like 26, Zach Miller 26, Michael Bennett and Chris Avril were young, ect.....

I think we also love the competitors. They aren't always near perfect choir boys like Russell Wilson, but the guys who just can't bear losing like Harvin work as well. They want competitors who push everyone around them.

And I believe JS said that he thought our only true need was at DT. After that they just went BPA.
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Tatupu_64


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

pen15clubmember wrote:
You forgot to mention one thing that is definitely for sure.

We love youth. They must be young. I think we have a sit and wait mantra when it comes to FA, but what we definitely do have is that when it comes to FA, they must be young. Sidney Rice was like 26, Zach Miller 26, Michael Bennett and Chris Avril were young, ect.....

I think we also love the competitors. They aren't always near perfect choir boys like Russell Wilson, but the guys who just can't bear losing like Harvin work as well. They want competitors who push everyone around them.

And I believe JS said that he thought our only true need was at DT. After that they just went BPA.
Michael was clearly taken with a plan, as was Harper.

I'll agree with you on youth, however I think that ties into the idea of always planning for the future like I stated. The competition piece is pretty vague. If you mean we only bring in players who are willing to compete, than sure, I agree. But maybe 10% of the NFL at very most our guys who aren't willing to compete for a job.
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BlaqOptic wrote:
...13 Seahawks one spot over the 08 Steelers

ram29jackson wrote:
LO freaking L...Seahawks aren't repeating crap and you can book that
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Tooki


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The FO also likes late round players because they often end up having a chip on their shoulder for being ignored by the other 31 teams. Richard Sherman and Doug Baldwin are examples of this.

They have an extra drive to compete because they don't have the job security of a 1st or 2nd round player.
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Tatupu_64


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tooki wrote:
The FO also likes late round players because they often end up having a chip on their shoulder for being ignored by the other 31 teams. Richard Sherman and Doug Baldwin are examples of this.

They have an extra drive to compete because they don't have the job security of a 1st or 2nd round player.
I think the biggest reason we love late round picks is this: They're cheap. Especially with the new CBA, if you hit on a late round guy you get him for 3+ years on a very cheap contract.
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BlaqOptic wrote:
...13 Seahawks one spot over the 08 Steelers

ram29jackson wrote:
LO freaking L...Seahawks aren't repeating crap and you can book that
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SoS


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good write-up Tats.

It is tough to get a read on this FO, but I think the one thing I've learned is that we can never really know what to expect. It all depends on how they view the status of the team, and that is clearly different from how we view it.

Last year we thought Pete really wanted that pass rushing SLB, but the team ignored the position once again and retained Leroy Hill. It looks like the team is checking out Irvin at LB now, so we may have actually been correct there, but we weren't at the time.

This year we think the interior OL is a huge need, and we ignore it until the last round.

Here is one thing I've learned. This team has clearly taken on the Alex Gibbs mantra on how to build a valued ZBS offensive line. Especially in this power version, it's all about athletes that can deliver a pop and keep technique. I think that's why they don't care to spend early picks on the position, because they know they can find starters in the late rounds. Maybe Sweezy never works out, but if they keep getting these guys like him and Jared Smith they are going to hit on one eventually I feel. I don't think they've shown to be good at evaluating early round linemen, and most of that is because they aren't drafting athletes early.

Like you said Tats, this team is now drafting to sustain rather than to build. We have entered the period with this front office where we're essentially in cruise control as long as we keep making calculated decisions. So far I'd say our biggest recent mistake was retaining Red Bryant. Before that it may have been as far back as the Whitehurst trade. Outside of those, you can't critique too much.

The elite players at valued positions will be kept. Pete and John understand that having a premium lockdown corner not only helps your pass defense but it also helps your pass rush. I will be shocked if we let him walk. It's the great players that likely won't be resigned because this staff feels that they can replace them if they keep restocking the shelf in advance. For example, Marshawn Lynch now has VERY little leverage after next season and will need to give his full effort to get a paycheck from this team. If he shows any signs of slowing down to the point of holding this team back, the staff hasn't been shy in telling them to pack their bags. Lynch will have no guaranteed money after 2014 and from there could be released from the fresher legs. That's the way this team is going to work, let guys go before they hit a steady decline. And when you draft like they do, it works.

Brandon Browner is clearly a guy that is not going to be resigned after his contract is up. The Tharold Simon selection made that clear. He's essentially a Brandon Browner clone except for he's faster. Browner is really protected in this defense by Earl Thomas, but imagine two guys that could play island coverage in Sherman and Simon. Simon won't be that guy year 1, but by year 2 I doubt we see any decline in our #2 CB play from Browner to Simon.

Same thing with Golden Tate, who looks to be on the out if Chris Harper shows to be I think he will. Tate's biggest issue since being with this team is that he doesn't possess the size that Pete covets from his possession receiver, but Harper certainly does. He has long arms and big hands and shields out defenders beautifully for the slants that Bevell runs.



I'm really excited about the stage that we're currently at, because it reminds me of the Ravens. We're at a point where we can let good players go to other teams and get compensatory picks from them to keep restocking. As long as Schneider is here, this football team is going to be good.
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Tatupu_64


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The elite players at valued positions will be kept. Pete and John understand that having a premium lockdown corner not only helps your pass defense but it also helps your pass rush. I will be shocked if we let him walk. It's the great players that likely won't be resigned because this staff feels that they can replace them if they keep restocking the shelf in advance. For example, Marshawn Lynch now has VERY little leverage after next season and will need to give his full effort to get a paycheck from this team. If he shows any signs of slowing down to the point of holding this team back, the staff hasn't been shy in telling them to pack their bags. Lynch will have no guaranteed money after 2014 and from there could be released from the fresher legs. That's the way this team is going to work, let guys go before they hit a steady decline. And when you draft like they do, it works.
Exactly what I was trying to convey Applause
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BlaqOptic wrote:
...13 Seahawks one spot over the 08 Steelers

ram29jackson wrote:
LO freaking L...Seahawks aren't repeating crap and you can book that
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imani


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Notto ignore your hard work tats, but this pic gave me wood



Looks like he was born to be a seahawk
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green24


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a very interesting read. It appears as if John Idzik is trying to follow a very similar model with the Jets. He went BPA early and often in this draft. He traded a mid round pick for RB Chris Ivory, just like how the Seahawks did for Marshawn Lynch a few years ago. He has also already drafted a defensive lineman that will be converted to guard (William Campbell).
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Sacks98


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-analysis/2013/5/3/4296104/john-schneiders-seahawks-nfl-marshawn-lynch-christine-michael

Here is a good read from Field Gulls it's pretty big so i didn't post it pretty much just says the reason Schneider took Michael is for the future and regretted never doing that in GB passing on guys like MJD and Gore for other players and not preparing for Green's replacement.
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imani


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Honestly, I think Chris Harper may be the Sidney Rice replacement. You see the contract, the age and the injury history and i think those are clear indicators. Rice has great hands, body control and route running technique but he isn't irreplaceable in this current league or to our offense. I think Tate can be had cheaper, provides a deep threat and has superior yac ability as well as great hands. I think that holds much more value to our offense, especially a deep threat.

Harper provides the size that rice would leave behind and add more physicality to our receiving corp. This is kind of an advocates take, but in reality, it wouldn't surprise me
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Sacks98


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PostPosted: Fri May 03, 2013 11:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Rice is on this team for at least two more seasons i think the Harper pick was more to replace Tate in case he gets good money on the open market they could ask Rice to take a pay cut though.
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SoS


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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's only one thing that's certain in my eyes. Sidney Rice doesn't play on this team with his current contract past this season.
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SoS


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PostPosted: Sat May 04, 2013 12:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sacks98 wrote:
http://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-analysis/2013/5/3/4296104/john-schneiders-seahawks-nfl-marshawn-lynch-christine-michael

Here is a good read from Field Gulls it's pretty big so i didn't post it pretty much just says the reason Schneider took Michael is for the future and regretted never doing that in GB passing on guys like MJD and Gore for other players and not preparing for Green's replacement.


Great job by John. Honestly, I am loving our draft. It is borderline excruciatingly boring, but it just makes so much sense with the way this team is going. No players that make you say "wow" but each guy has a fit and you can see the direction the team is going with each pick.

I'm loving the stage we've reached. Drafts are going to be exciting to watch.
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