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The tWo Select, Luke Joeckel, Second Overall
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DuvalsKing


Joined: 15 Nov 2011
Posts: 224
PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AngryPirate wrote:

Henne could take this team to the playoffs. Gabbert could take us to the number 1 pick next season. We need to draft a center also.


This has to be sarcasm at its finest
How many games did Gabbert win last year?
How many games did Henne win last year?

Oh the same amount you say a game a piece in retrospect Henne is Gabbert because Miami had the same hope for him that I have for Gabbert a pick that never quiet panned out. But Henne could lead this team with horrible talent to the playoffs hey if you want to continue posting here son stay off the drugs.
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charles shelton


Joined: 22 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MoJo122-b-21 wrote:
charles shelton wrote:
MoJo122-b-21 wrote:
If this pick means Eugene Monroe walks in free agency, it's a terrible pick. If it means we have two dominant tackles basically dictating there will be no edge rush against the Jaguars' offense, it's the best pick we could have made.

There are still plenty of very good defenders on the board as well as some serious trade bait to possibly secure two second round picks.


if he's the best player on the board..it's a good pick regardless of what happens with monroe. in 96, the ravens looked to be set with tony jones & orlando brown as their starting tackles, yet they drafted ogden and ended up starting him at guard for the 96 season...worked out pretty well for them in the long run. not saying that joekel will be as good as ogden...but i have no problem with caldwell taking the best player available at that point. i'd be more upset if he reached for need like our last 2 gms consistently did.


If drafting Ogden meant losing Boselli the next offseason, it would have been a terrible pick.

If drafting Ogden and having the two best tackles in football for half a decade, that would have been a great pick.

Drafting Ogden to replace Boselli wouldn't have made those teams better, nor will replacing Monroe with Luke.

If next April comes around and we have a gaping hole at right tackle because Monroe is playing for another team, the pick would be a wash.

If he's Monroe's replacement, he doesn't make this team better. That's all I'm getting at.


you've totally missed the point.

drafting the best player pays dividends...long term. don't get caught up in specifics. what i learned is that our new gm is going to take the best player available, regardless of what specific position conflicts that philosophy may cause..and i like it. it's long term thinking and it works.

-charles
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DuvalsKing


Joined: 15 Nov 2011
Posts: 224
PostPosted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

charles shelton wrote:
MoJo122-b-21 wrote:
charles shelton wrote:
MoJo122-b-21 wrote:
If this pick means Eugene Monroe walks in free agency, it's a terrible pick. If it means we have two dominant tackles basically dictating there will be no edge rush against the Jaguars' offense, it's the best pick we could have made.

There are still plenty of very good defenders on the board as well as some serious trade bait to possibly secure two second round picks.


if he's the best player on the board..it's a good pick regardless of what happens with monroe. in 96, the ravens looked to be set with tony jones & orlando brown as their starting tackles, yet they drafted ogden and ended up starting him at guard for the 96 season...worked out pretty well for them in the long run. not saying that joekel will be as good as ogden...but i have no problem with caldwell taking the best player available at that point. i'd be more upset if he reached for need like our last 2 gms consistently did.


If drafting Ogden meant losing Boselli the next offseason, it would have been a terrible pick.

If drafting Ogden and having the two best tackles in football for half a decade, that would have been a great pick.

Drafting Ogden to replace Boselli wouldn't have made those teams better, nor will replacing Monroe with Luke.

If next April comes around and we have a gaping hole at right tackle because Monroe is playing for another team, the pick would be a wash.

If he's Monroe's replacement, he doesn't make this team better. That's all I'm getting at.


you've totally missed the point.

drafting the best player pays dividends...long term. don't get caught up in specifics. what i learned is that our new gm is going to take the best player available, regardless of what specific position conflicts that philosophy may cause..and i like it. it's long term thinking and it works.

-charles


You are correct Charles if we would have been drafting BPA all along we wouldn't have the QB issues we have now i.e. Big Ben would be a Jaguar we didn't draft him because we had Leftwich how fine that has worked out for us.
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MoJo122-b-21


Joined: 01 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 2:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

charles shelton wrote:


you've totally missed the point.



If objecting to replacing one player with a player of similar quality is missing the point, I'd prefer to miss the point. I'm not sure you're getting mine.

Either way, I'm over it until next March.

- This Guy
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charles shelton


Joined: 22 Jan 2007
Posts: 1842
PostPosted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MoJo122-b-21 wrote:
charles shelton wrote:


you've totally missed the point.



If objecting to replacing one player with a player of similar quality is missing the point, I'd prefer to miss the point. I'm not sure you're getting mine.

Either way, I'm over it until next March.

- This Guy


i get your point..and it's valid, but it's a specific scenario that is hard to predict, when experience has taught us all that prediciting the future is sketchy at best. we could both sit here and lay out scenarios in which the jags win or lose with this pick...and truth be told...i don't know if joekel is any good. i hope he is, but i don't know. I'm grading this more from the point of view of what caldwell's drafting philosophy might be vs. any specific player he takes this year Smile

-charles
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JaguarCrazy2832


Joined: 28 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 27, 2013 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So the OT thread becomes another Gabbert-Henne debate? Why not start a new thread about it?
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 2:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Okay!

First off, Tony Khan (@TonyKhan) is a MUST FOLLOW on Twitter if you're a Jaguars fan. Absolutely must follow. Most of you should know that he's Shad's son, and the Senior Vice President of Football Technology and Analytics. He's big into the advanced stats and things like that.

Here's some things to sell you on the pick if you aren't already, from him:

Top 10 offensive tackles chosen from 1990 to 2008 started an average of 70.5 games over their first 5 seasons, more than any other position.

First round tackles chosen outside of the Top Ten from 1990 to 2008 only started an average total of 58.5 games over their first 5 seasons.

Per @StevePalazzolo, LTs gave up pressure on 3,795 dropbacks resulting in a comp % of 49.5%. Pressure from the RT on 4,761 dropbacks: 49.2%.

In 2012, the Jags took the 3rd most sacks (50) in the NFL. Luke Joeckel, the best player in the 2013 Draft, immediately improves our offense



All of this together suggests that, yes we drafted Luke Joeckel to be a RT and yes we plan on keeping him at RT while retaining Monroe, yes we made the right decision, and that more teams should be doing this because too many RTs aren't hacking it, and it's causing more problems than pressure from LTs.
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Tugboat


Joined: 30 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
Okay!

First off, Tony Khan (@TonyKhan) is a MUST FOLLOW on Twitter if you're a Jaguars fan. Absolutely must follow. Most of you should know that he's Shad's son, and the Senior Vice President of Football Technology and Analytics. He's big into the advanced stats and things like that.

Here's some things to sell you on the pick if you aren't already, from him:

Top 10 offensive tackles chosen from 1990 to 2008 started an average of 70.5 games over their first 5 seasons, more than any other position.

First round tackles chosen outside of the Top Ten from 1990 to 2008 only started an average total of 58.5 games over their first 5 seasons.

Per @StevePalazzolo, LTs gave up pressure on 3,795 dropbacks resulting in a comp % of 49.5%. Pressure from the RT on 4,761 dropbacks: 49.2%.

In 2012, the Jags took the 3rd most sacks (50) in the NFL. Luke Joeckel, the best player in the 2013 Draft, immediately improves our offense



All of this together suggests that, yes we drafted Luke Joeckel to be a RT and yes we plan on keeping him at RT while retaining Monroe, yes we made the right decision, and that more teams should be doing this because too many RTs aren't hacking it, and it's causing more problems than pressure from LTs.


Very interesting stuff. And very likely what they were going on here with Joeckel as the pick...and honestly i really like it.

But i do think that kind of analysis has holes. Completion % is a really weak tool...Geno Smith was a prime example of that. And a capable NFL QB is going to see pressure...especially pressure from the right side, as a reason to dump off to the check down option in most situations...and they're going to have a visual advantage in most cases with that scenario of pressure from the right side of the line. Not that it isn't hugely disruptive...but the fact that the #s provided are in the same ballpark for pressure from each side...tells me that LT is still very much the more valuable position.

But i do think protecting both edges is very important...especially considering our division.
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The completion percentages are the same, but look at the total number of pressures. I'm going to go out on a limb and say not all of the almost 1000 additional pressures were the fault of Guy Whimper.


I think it's showing a couple things. This stuff about how you have to protect a QBs blindside because they can't see as as well, is garbage. Stats show that it doesn't matter where the pressure comes from, the QB is effected pretty much the same by the pressure. Sure they might be going to a shorter play or whatever, but ultimately that's positive plays, compared to sacks/stripsacks/incompletes. The difference is that these teams are buying so much into the protect the blindside, don't worry as much about the frontside mantra that they're leaving the front much more vulnerable because they don't address it with top flight talent.

What drafting Joeckel and putting him at RT is going to do is give Gabbert and whoever else is there (4,761 32 teams 16 games = 9.2) at least 7, probably closer to 8 or 9 clean pockets every single game to make a throw that he wouldn't have gotten with average protection, nevermind what he was getting with Guy Whimper there. And that's just pressure, nevermind the actual sacks. Add in sacks and that's another at last half per game.
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Tugboat


Joined: 30 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 5:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
The completion percentages are the same, but look at the total number of pressures. I'm going to go out on a limb and say not all of the almost 1000 additional pressures were the fault of Guy Whimper.


I think it's showing a couple things. This stuff about how you have to protect a QBs blindside because they can't see as as well, is garbage. Stats show that it doesn't matter where the pressure comes from, the QB is effected pretty much the same by the pressure. Sure they might be going to a shorter play or whatever, but ultimately that's positive plays, compared to sacks/stripsacks/incompletes. The difference is that these teams are buying so much into the protect the blindside, don't worry as much about the frontside mantra that they're leaving the front much more vulnerable because they don't address it with top flight talent.

What drafting Joeckel and putting him at RT is going to do is give Gabbert and whoever else is there (4,761 32 teams 16 games = 9.2) at least 7, probably closer to 8 or 9 clean pockets every single game to make a throw that he wouldn't have gotten with average protection, nevermind what he was getting with Guy Whimper there. And that's just pressure, nevermind the actual sacks. Add in sacks and that's another at last half per game.


I have absolutely zero doubts that Gabbert or whoever is tossing the pigskin for us this year, will see significantly less outside pressures from the right side (which i really hated watching, it was honestly frustrating to watch the O-Line suck that much), and i completely get the stats behind the Joeckel selection.

But the difference is...you've got roughly equal completion percentages, but that's not taking into account the progression of reads, the fact that most QBs are right handed and more comfortable rolling out to that side to evade pressure, and more than anything...what you already touched on. The idea that QBs were protected by lesser players on the right side.

It's really not a fair test of things.

But i do agree that shoring up both edges of the O-Line could potentially be huge for Gabbert or whoever our QB is this coming year, or in the future. Pressure...wherever it comes from is the bane of a QB's existence. That's why there's such a premium on Pass Rushers these days, as well as LTs.
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 6:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tugboat wrote:
I have absolutely zero doubts that Gabbert or whoever is tossing the pigskin for us this year, will see significantly less outside pressures from the right side (which i really hated watching, it was honestly frustrating to watch the O-Line suck that much), and i completely get the stats behind the Joeckel selection.
By the way, bot all of this information is necessarily for you. Some people are really meh on the pick, so actually getting the info out for them to see it helps. I know you get the basics of what it shows and everything, I just want to make sure everyone does.

Quote:
But the difference is...you've got roughly equal completion percentages, but that's not taking into account the progression of reads, the fact that most QBs are right handed and more comfortable rolling out to that side to evade pressure, and more than anything...what you already touched on. The idea that QBs were protected by lesser players on the right side.
You'd tend to think, and with no data to back it up, I wouldn't know for certain, but if pressure is bothering a QB, and they're moving wherever to avoid it, and their completion percentage is basically the same, it stands to reason that the yardage is somewhat similar as well. It seems all too coincidental. PFF has those stats, I'm sure, but I'm not about to pay for them.

And even if we remove the completion percentage and only look in terms of pressure that we face from either side, we're still seeing almost 1,000 more pressures from that side. Which would suggest that while you can get away with lesser talent that side simply because less teams have a strong pass rush from the offense's right, teams (and by that virtue your typical fans who do so even more) are devaluing the RT position too much. So if we're supposed to value it more, and then we as fans of a team that faces great pass rushers on that side should value it even more, it makes it a no brainer to get the best one in the fraft if we have a chance to do it.

Anyway........ I'll take those 7 clean pockets every game, regardless of what the production was when they weren't clean, to make sure my QB has the best position to succeed.


And it's already sunlight out over here. I had been so good about getting to sleep before 4am the last few months before this week. Damn the NFL draft.
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