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Ponder-iffic or Ponder-errible? the 2013 Pre-Season Debate.
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Purple Faithful


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
I don't think there is one person who blamed Harvin for our lack of passing attack. The closest anyone may have got to that was saying that Musgrave was trying to force-feed Harvin the ball on smoke and bubble screens and the rest of the passing game was suffering.
Well, i pointed out the vikings, throu pelessario at 1500 (sp), said harvin is a free-wheeler. doesn't run the right routes, isn't where he's supposed to be. Again, according to "sources" as reported by tom pelessario (sp)
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I missed that, but it would make sense. Harvin wasn't a great route runner to begin with so I could see him doing pretty much whatever out there.

Sorry for hi-jacking the Ponder thread Very Happy
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purple Faithful wrote:
Purplexing wrote:

YPA isn't a proven predictor of success.

And, if YPA were 7 on average, while YPC for Peterson were 5.0 on avg, why bother passing the ball at all?

I asked this ^ question a while ago and got no answer.

It would seem logical that YPA > YPC implies pass the ball on ALL offensive snaps. But what is missing in the logic.

My prior clue is repeated: 'per'.
wow, is that wrong.

http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2006/07/runpass-balance-and-little-game-theory.html

"Longtime CHFF readers know that a quarterback's average per attempt has an incredibly high correlation to success, often close to 80 percent in a given season. "

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2012/Final/RPYPA/


If you pass all the time, your YPA will go down. Make sense? DC's like to keep their jobs and are not all morons. If you run all the time, then, when you do pass, you should really get a lot of yards, for the surprise factor. When you have the MVP at running back, crushing defenses, and you throw as little as Ponder does, .... People have minds, it's not in a vacuum. people adapt, DC's adapt. Vikes did not make people adapt last year, because we could not punish anyone when we passed. But, 5 return TD's, good defense, we finish over .500 firmly.

To complete the analysis, you would look at what you pass per attempt versus what you give up per pass attempt. You can use passer rating, too. I find YPA more useful, but passer rating is fine, you can reflectthe total drop-backs, too - include sacks and the like as CHFF does. I find if you're getting sacked, the pressure is already affecting you, anyway, or you're sacking, you're already hurting opposing QB, making him nervous/flustered in the pocket on next pass. It's more accurate to use an adjusted figure, but not as readily available to look at -not an official stat. When I want to look at what's happening week 4, i prefer to do it week 4, rather than week 10 when the 3rd parties get aroung to it. maybe just me.

The good defenses:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt/position/defense
compare to points per game list:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame/position/defense

The good offenses:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt
ditto:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame

all-time good:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_per_att_career.htm

So, vikes finished 14th on points for and against. That's .500, but they won 10. Give them a break, i shall.


YPA is useful.

But it is an average, thus my clue 'per'.

There is variance in the gains, pass by pass, run by run.

There are also turnovers; fumbles and INTs.
Penalties, too!

So, YPA alone is not the 80% predictive variable that is claimed. It is field position and turnovers.

So, a QB must be measured by YPA, Completion %, QB rating, sacks, turnovers, fumbles, and consistency.

The increases and decrease in YPA and YPC, by number of attempts or carries, are not going to change in the same way for every offense and OC vs DC. So the relationships discovered need further examination for the variances in different situations.

Interesting stuff, but YPA is still incomplete in predictive power as a stand-alone stat.
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Worm Guts


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2013 12:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purple Faithful wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
I don't think there is one person who blamed Harvin for our lack of passing attack. The closest anyone may have got to that was saying that Musgrave was trying to force-feed Harvin the ball on smoke and bubble screens and the rest of the passing game was suffering.
Well, i pointed out the vikings, throu pelessario at 1500 (sp), said harvin is a free-wheeler. doesn't run the right routes, isn't where he's supposed to be. Again, according to "sources" as reported by tom pelessario (sp)


Even if that's true, it doesn't mean the Vikings are blaming Harvin for the lack of a passing attack. I'm sure the Vikings know Harvins value. It's not like the Vikings became a better passing team with him out, in fact they were much less prolific.
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twslhs20


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DJpillz317 wrote:
I like the kid; he has a fantastic work ethic and seems like a great person. He has made some boneheaded plays, but that's to be expected at this point in his career for the most part. I think he has the "clutch gene" possibly, I saw it during the Redskins game where he got us back in the game, but the defense gave up that 70 yard TD run to RGIII. The last Packer game comes to mind, and the first game of the year during the Jags game.

I think if we give him some more talent to boost his confidence, he will be a solid starter for us. Worst case, we get our guy in a year or two.


Vikings had 11 offensive drives for 29:15 minutes. a 3:05 minute avg per drive. Of those drives: 4 FGs, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, and 2 Punts. A 3.40 min Avg of the 2 TD drives.

Washington had 11 drives for 26.11 minutes with a 2:37 minute per drive avg. Of those 11 drives. 1 FG, 4TDs*, 1 INT, and 3 Punts. Average TD drive 3.03 minutes.

* Another TD Ponder was intercepted by M. Williams, on our own 24, returned for a TD. (0.11 sec)

So comparing the Vikings Avg TD drive of 3.03 with 3 of the 4 Redskin TD drives that went the majority of the field, 4.04 minutes, one could make the argument that the Vikings D was at fault.

I think you are giving ponder too much credit. He couldn't get it into the end zone until the 4th quarter throwing 3 TDs before throwing an INT on our final drive. Too little too late. You can't bring us back from something that he never got us too in the first place.

The looked like they were gasses in the 4th quarter though. At least that's the way I saw it when I was watching the game.
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twslhs20


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purplexing wrote:
Purplexing wrote:
Purplexing wrote:

Relatively low CV means consistency relative to other QBs.
Relatively high CV means inconsistency relative to other QBs.


2012 Stats .. Cutler Ponder Rodgers Stafford
QB rating '12 .. 81.3 ... 81.2 . 108.0 ... 79.8
Std Deviation . 34.8 ... 27.6 ... 19.1 ... 17.6
Coeff of Var. .. 43% ... 34% ... 18% ... 22%

What do the variance numbers in the table above say regarding Ponder's consistency as a QB when compared to other QBs in the NFC North?

I did the same analysis for Brady, Brees, P-Mann, E-Mann and Flacco.

I may post the other Non-NFC North QBs variance numbers for 2012 later ... or I may not. Cheers!


Post quoted above is for reference in regard to these numbers:

QB Name Team
QB Rtng 2012
Std Dev QBRtg
Coefficient Var

P-Manning, Denver
105.8
22.7
21%

E-Manning, NYG
87.2
26.4
30%

Brees, NO
96.3
27.7
29%

Ponder, MN
81.2
27.6
34%

What do the consistency or inconsistency of the above QBs indicate regarding success or failure?

Brady, Flacco, .... later.


It's 'later', so here are the promised trio of stats for Tom Brady and Joe Flacco... for comparison to the other QBs above ^.

Brady
98.7
23.3
24%

Flacco
87.7
26.5
30%

Have we learned anything about Ponder compared to other successful NFL QBs in regard to their QB ratings, the standard deviation of their QB ratings over the 2012 season, and the CV ratio that adjusts the variance to consider the size of the QB ratings for a QB?

I have. It makes most readers here sleepy! Smile


Wouldn't expect Ponder to meet any of those QBRs. I would also throw out Flacco. Even Raven fans will well you he was mediocre until the post season. Most think it was due to Cam Cameron. Some here will make the Musgrave comparison. However my opinion is that he won't open the full playbook because he doesn't believe Ponder can make deep throws down field accurately.

Lowest one you have their is E Manning 87.3=55.15. Eli is pretty mediocre. Yet he has 2 rings. Clutch when he needs to be or just lucky? Beating the Pats twice in no easy task. A lot revolved around Dline pressure, and rattling Brady.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2013 7:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:

Vikings had 11 offensive drives for 29:15 minutes. a 3:05 minute avg per drive. Of those drives: 4 FGs, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, and 2 Punts. A 3.40 min Avg of the 2 TD drives.

Washington had 11 drives for 26.11 minutes with a 2:37 minute per drive avg. Of those 11 drives. 1 FG, 4TDs*, 1 INT, and 3 Punts. Average TD drive 3.03 minutes.

* Another TD Ponder was intercepted by M. Williams, on our own 24, returned for a TD. (0.11 sec)

So comparing the Vikings Avg TD drive of 3.03 with 3 of the 4 Redskin TD drives that went the majority of the field, 4.04 minutes, one could make the argument that the Vikings D was at fault.

I think you are giving ponder too much credit. He couldn't get it into the end zone until the 4th quarter throwing 3 TDs before throwing an INT on our final drive. Too little too late. You can't bring us back from something that he never got us too in the first place.

The looked like they were gasses in the 4th quarter though. At least that's the way I saw it when I was watching the game.


A. Avg time per drive is determined by many things, including number of rushes versus passes, incomplete passes, ballcarrier going OB to stop the clock, etc.

Averages are only meaningful when the sample size is large.

11 or 12 offensive drives in one game is far too small to be used as a basis for averaging offensive drive times. Look at it over a full season.
Example: NFL QB rating requires an average of 14 passes per game over a season to qualify for an official rating. Individual game QB ratings, which I used in the normative analyses above, are less than credible as a stand alone statistic.

B. I think people give Ponder too little or too much credit, depending on their perspective.

It's easy to cherry pick stats from a loss and extrapolate that to a career. It's easy to find a highlight vid and post a link to it to make a claim. It's difficult to analyze something meaningfully when the experience data is too thin and green.
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 30, 2013 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

twslhs20 wrote:

Wouldn't expect Ponder to meet any of those QBRs. I would also throw out Flacco. Even Raven fans will well you he was mediocre until the post season. Most think it was due to Cam Cameron. Some here will make the Musgrave comparison. However my opinion is that he won't open the full playbook because he doesn't believe Ponder can make deep throws down field accurately.

Lowest one you have their is E Manning 87.3=55.15. Eli is pretty mediocre. Yet he has 2 rings. Clutch when he needs to be or just lucky? Beating the Pats twice in no easy task. A lot revolved around Dline pressure, and rattling Brady.


It's too soon to make judgments about Ponder.

I wouldn't throw out ANY stats of ANY QB above, because they played in the NFL for at least 5 years.

Mediocre Flacco is the 2nd highest paid player after taxes.

If E-Mann and J-Flacco are mediocre and lucky and inconsistent, why don't their teams GMs abandon them for a QB whose YPA is higher?

Flacco; 2008-12 YPA: 6.9, 7.2, 7.4, 6.7, 7.2, career 7.1
E-Mann; 2004-12 YPA: 5.3, 6.8, 6.2, 6.3, 6.8, 7.9, 7.4, 8.4, 7.4, career 7.1
P-Mann; 1998-12 YPA: 6.5, 7.8, 7.7, 7.6, 7.1, 7.5, 9.2, 8.3, 7.9, 7.8, 7.2, 7.9, 6.9, ---, 8.0, career 7.6

Kaep; 2012 YPA: 8.3 attempts: 218, does not qualify for a full year QB rating. 224 required.
CNewt: 2011-12 YPA: 7.8, 8.0, career 7.9

Brady's YPA numbers year by year are interesting:

http://www.nfl.com/player/tombrady/2504211/profile


Can you read the mind of Warren Buffet, too? PM me with his next move.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Itís hard for the Vikings to know which Ponder will show up more often in 2013. Will it be the guy who failed to throw for 100 yards in three contests last season, the guy who had a rating below 60 on five occasions, the guy who torpedoed the teamís upset bid at Lambeau Field in Week 13 by going seven consecutive possessions without a completion while also throwing two brutal red zone interceptions in the second half?

Or will Ponder ride the momentum and confidence he built in the final four weeks of the regular season into Year 3? During that stretch, he helped the Vikingsí surge into the playoffs with four straight wins by taking only five sacks and turning the ball over just twice. He helped the team score on its opening possession in all four games (three TDs, one field goal) and the Vikings never trailed thereafter in any of those wins. And in the season finale against Green Bay, Ponder threw for 234 yards and three scores while posting a career-best rating of 120.2. Under the brightest of lights with the pressure at its peak. Thatís the guy General Manager Rick Spielman believes will show up more often in 2013.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/blogs/203188931.html
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 19, 2013 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
Itís hard for the Vikings to know which Ponder will show up more often in 2013. Will it be the guy who failed to throw for 100 yards in three contests last season, the guy who had a rating below 60 on five occasions, the guy who torpedoed the teamís upset bid at Lambeau Field in Week 13 by going seven consecutive possessions without a completion while also throwing two brutal red zone interceptions in the second half?

Or will Ponder ride the momentum and confidence he built in the final four weeks of the regular season into Year 3? During that stretch, he helped the Vikingsí surge into the playoffs with four straight wins by taking only five sacks and turning the ball over just twice. He helped the team score on its opening possession in all four games (three TDs, one field goal) and the Vikings never trailed thereafter in any of those wins. And in the season finale against Green Bay, Ponder threw for 234 yards and three scores while posting a career-best rating of 120.2. Under the brightest of lights with the pressure at its peak. Thatís the guy General Manager Rick Spielman believes will show up more often in 2013.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/blogs/203188931.html


Here are some clues:

I previously pointed out a month or so ago that Ponder's 5 worst games in 2012, per QB rating in game, was against the NFL's top 4 pass defenses, as measured per QB rating against.

I also provided stats readily available on NFL.com that show 3 of the 5 worst games were away games, vs Chi, GB and SEA.

Below are Ponder's QB ratings by game for 2012, from my 3/25/13 post at 10:49 pm in this thread, page 17? 18?.
I added today the opposing teams, site of the game, results and scores for Ponder's 5 worst QB ratings games:

Ponder's 2012 QB ratings by game:

105.5
114.6
94.7
71.2
87.6
83.2
35.5 vs. ARI; W 21-14
74.8
37.3 @ SEA; L 20-30
114.2
58.2 @ Chi; L 10-28
41.9 @ GB; L 14-23
53.8 vs. Chi; W 21-14
83.9
81.8
120.2 vs. GB; W 37-34

2012 Total: 81.2
Std Dev: 27.6
CV: .34

Recall, from my prior post in this thread,
team pass defense NFL rankings per QB rating against for 2012:

1. Ari: 71.2
2. Chi: 71.3
3. Sea: 71.8
4. GB: 76.8

With that said;

Ponder may struggle in 2013 against:

a. the best pass defenses; e.g. Chicago, GB, Sea, Balt. Pitt. and perhaps Cincy.

b. in away games; e.g. Chi., GB, Balt., and perhaps Pitt., Cincy. (London)

Or, Ponder and Musgrave might determine why he struggled against the best pass defenses last year, and make adjustments; e.g. vs. GB: 41.9 in GB, then 120.2 in MN.

So, in the end, I hedged my predictions.

But I provided some stats for everyone to ... uh, ponder. Rolling Eyes
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 19, 2013 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm gonna be honest. Its kind of boring looking at stats from last year. I just don't put a whole lot of weight into that kind of stuff.

Whats Ponder up to right now? How is he improving?

Its been quite this offseason. Maybe its because he's married?
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Purplexing


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SteelKing728 wrote:
I'm gonna be honest. Its kind of boring looking at stats from last year. I just don't put a whole lot of weight into that kind of stuff.

Whats Ponder up to right now? How is he improving?

Its been quite this offseason. Maybe its because he's married?


It's been quiet, too!

Ponder is probably doing what most other NFL players are doing now; studying the draft to see which players might be selected to replace them.

Or, maybe he's studying boring stats. Wink
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm calling it right now. Ponder will be a top-15 QB by the end of this year.


1. The entire OL is returning. Maximum chemistry and Fusco should improve.
2. Jennings/Patterson/Wright/Rudolph are great targets. No excuses in that department anymore.
3. AP is AP and will do what AP does. There will be 8-9 men in the box every play.
4. Improved defense and special teams will put Ponder in better situations.
5. Another year of experience under Frazier/Musgrave's belt will make everything run smoother.
6. This is Ponder's 3rd year; the year when QB's make their biggest jump in improvement.
7. Cassel will be the veteran mentor that he has never had.
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[UMN] wrote:
I'm calling it right now. Ponder will be a top-15 QB by the end of this year.


1. The entire OL is returning. Maximum chemistry and Fusco should improve.
2. Jennings/Patterson/Wright/Rudolph are great targets. No excuses in that department anymore.
3. AP is AP and will do what AP does. There will be 8-9 men in the box every play.
4. Improved defense and special teams will put Ponder in better situations.
5. Another year of experience under Frazier/Musgrave's belt will make everything run smoother.
6. This is Ponder's 3rd year; the year when QB's make their biggest jump in improvement.
7. Cassel will be the veteran mentor that he has never had.
7 reasons for No. 7. I think just having Jennings will be a huge help
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2013 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If he is a top 10-15 QB, and we get a typical AP year + expected good play by defense & special teams, we'll challenge for the NFCN crown
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